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 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market V6, Signs are already there in Malaysia

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bcpbeancounter
post May 24 2014, 09:57 PM

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QUOTE(Barbossa @ May 24 2014, 08:06 PM)
The bubble will happen maybe in 10 years time. I believe that so I am not going to buy any house.
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People expect bubble to pop not later than next year. Thats why bear bear will buy in q4 2015. You say 10 years? He will ki siao lo...how to wait another 10 yrs?
Life got how many 10 years?!
bcpbeancounter
post May 24 2014, 10:01 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ May 24 2014, 09:55 PM)
start 560k
20X 70
22x 70
22x75
24x75
32x70
32x75
35x75
35x80
40x90
40x80

prices shoots up and up
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560k sold out liao!
bcpbeancounter
post May 24 2014, 10:19 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 24 2014, 10:14 PM)
Life may not have many 10 years but the worst is made a wrong decision and burden for 30 years.
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30 years mean that person is in early 30s. Unless this person is a gov servant, otherwise you see his income wont increase? My pay is few fold increase compare to 10 years ago.
bcpbeancounter
post May 25 2014, 11:14 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ May 25 2014, 12:51 AM)
10 years is a bit far away icemanfx, but i dunno where are you now, i mean age... having said that, there will always be property at any time of age, just the pricing.. not turning back against our DDD gangs, if you are young, you got alot of chance, but importantly, i am sure you wont listen to BBB blindly and buy.. but if you are old like me unker, gotta make certain targets/timeline

keep options open, got good deal any time grab it..
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BBB dont simply ask people buy le....i did ask you dont buy the semenyih studio remember? but DDD simply ask people dont buy regardless of location and affordability.
bcpbeancounter
post May 25 2014, 02:52 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ May 25 2014, 01:35 PM)
+1

Take maximum years for flexi loan, and dump in any extra money. Usually house loan will be settled sooner than expected because employment salary will increase, and also from passive income
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Iceman is assuming salary is flat or increase at inflation rate the most for the next 30 yrs. Investment is not his cup of tea. I mean all type of investment.
bcpbeancounter
post May 26 2014, 05:38 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 26 2014, 05:09 PM)
"PANIC" is when uuu and bbb are willing to let go of their units at a loss?
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do you ever see "panic" happen in malaysia property market?

bcpbeancounter
post May 26 2014, 10:46 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ May 26 2014, 10:29 PM)
it seems like business is better... mb i try open tuition center..  thumbup.gif
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You repoman also can teach?
bcpbeancounter
post May 26 2014, 11:16 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ May 26 2014, 10:55 PM)
taukeh earn money.. unker take salary only... sumtimes sum freebies
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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ May 26 2014, 11:02 PM)
dun get you.. besides agent works, any other works?
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IMO, this is not the right way to make money. To earn big money, you should be the expert or professional for the industry you are in. By involve in everything wont bring you up to next level. It just increase your income to certain amount but wont be a lot. The other way is do business.
bcpbeancounter
post May 27 2014, 09:30 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ May 27 2014, 12:32 AM)
can geh both are just name can use interchangeable..

i check see what food can get from the ones i seen:
ehsan auctioneer
ng chan mau auctioneer
the heritage auctioneer
PAH

hope got some food, mb sth i havent discover.. those agents bidding for interested bidders collect money too right? rm500?
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You should open your eye and ear big to observe the industry. Generally professional help to solve others problem. Thats why professional earn big money. Eg, most people been "con" by property agent, if you can help to solve this problem, you will earn big money.
bcpbeancounter
post May 27 2014, 10:33 AM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ May 27 2014, 09:46 AM)
laugh.gif  laugh.gif
U are lost........ Very contradicting......
Report stated Journalist ranked 2nd the least trusted profession...... And yet u believe so much in the reports??  doh.gif  doh.gif
thumbup.gif  thumbup.gif
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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 27 2014, 10:13 AM)
And you read and quoted from there?!
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尽信书不如无书。
bcpbeancounter
post May 28 2014, 11:04 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 28 2014, 09:34 AM)
Depending on how they package,  developer gross margin is minimum 50%.

If economic theory is irrelevant,  why bother to teach or employ economist at central banks?
In economy,  if flippers profit is greater than "normal"; developers could 1. Increase price 2. Withhold availability and sell later at a higher price. There are reasons why developers allowed flippers to make excessive profit.

Belive it is consensus that flipper is holding average of 4 units. Are you at, below or above average?
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when economist give opinion, many factors take into consideration including gov policies etc. As such, using economist opinion on other country to gauge on malaysia market which I think not right. For example, many countries predict to increase interest rate due to QE tappering, but Thailand is expected to reduce interest rate due to polital issue in the country. From the many links that you provided, is there any specifically for Malaysia? otherwise, you are just siok sendiri.

On developer margin, why use gross margin? what is their net margin which is more relevant to say how much they earn. They can have 50% gross profit but after other operation expenses and tax, become loss, is it still good business? Can a company operate without operating and admin cost and no tax?
bcpbeancounter
post May 28 2014, 12:32 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 28 2014, 11:34 AM)
After gross profit, most other cost and expenses is controllable. To most developers, how much net profit is depending on how much profit the cfo wish to declare and how much tax they planned to pay.
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can you give example what cost is controllable and resulted in most developer able to "play" around with the profit figure?
bcpbeancounter
post May 28 2014, 12:35 PM

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QUOTE(Fazab @ May 28 2014, 11:18 AM)
Economist look at the big picture, use comprehensive data. Their opinion is usually quite accurate, like you said, for one whole country and is generally valid for long term.
Street smart investor look at local data, gauge by their gut feelings, and if lucky can make a killing during certain period. Their data is limited to what they see and feel.

just like genting. The casino will always win. They have done the calculations and know how to beat you at the game.
Some lucky people will also win. And they think everybody can win and they can win all the time.
But majority will burn their fingers, because the odds are simply against them.

That is the essence of a crisis. Too many people hoping to win, when in reality, only a few can win.

How to be a winner? Become a developer.
The developers are the ones who will always win, at every cycle.

Anybody who thinks Malaysia is different, needs to have a quick lesson in financial crisis history.
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do you mean most of the property buyers are lossing money except developer in Malaysia?
bcpbeancounter
post May 30 2014, 08:37 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ May 30 2014, 07:13 AM)
Nothing is definite in this world.

From what we read, the comments from the student/economist sounded like koktoking. So do comments of many from both camps. Of course there are many exceptions which really have subtance. It is not very clever to believe everything in the internet. You need some wisdom to read between the lines so that you can extract the useful knowledge  for you own application.
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Student using your opinion to write thesis le...dont mislead people ya. tongue.gif
bcpbeancounter
post May 30 2014, 02:17 PM

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QUOTE(kradun @ May 30 2014, 01:33 PM)
The lesser transaction also part of this herd behavior. Many dono that prop prices won't go down because of the lite version of cooling measure, they believe the very far away day is very near day, playing wait and see. Until the time they realize the real affordability is something that can be easily manipulate by government, then they will see we achieve another mile stone.
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Thats why there is only 1 leader. The rest are followers.
bcpbeancounter
post May 30 2014, 05:27 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 30 2014, 03:22 PM)
Billionaire Li Ka-shing’s Cheung Kong Group agreed to acquire Envestra Ltd. (ENV) in a cash deal that values the Australian natural gas distributor at A$2.4 billion ($2.2 billion), beating a rival share offer from APA Group.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-30/l...llion-deal.html

LKS sold properties and buying O&G assets. So followers to follow the leader?
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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ May 30 2014, 05:01 PM)
If the followers have billions to spare i am sure they will follow to buy those business
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yes...i wish i can buy an oil field too!
bcpbeancounter
post Jun 1 2014, 06:45 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jun 1 2014, 08:00 AM)
i did... target was 610k 2.5 storey... waiting agent to revert for some discounts.. and background check on location cause got rumored land slides area..
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I remember your budget was 500k when i asked you few weeks ago. Now increase to 610k liao? Increase 110k in few weeks!! Like that how to expect price drop le? Anyway congratulation on your first step.
bcpbeancounter
post Jun 5 2014, 09:08 PM

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Good Times, Again
We believe that the pace of global economic activity will pick up this
year. The US will lead but growth in Europe has also been gaining
traction and, in Japan, we can cautiously say that stimulus is slowly
leading to autonomous growth in domestic demand. Against this
backdrop, we are looking for a strong cyclical upswing in Asian
(including China) growth in 2H14. North Asia should do better than
ASEAN and, within ASEAN, Malaysia and Singapore are expected to
benefit the most from a global uptick. We project general US$ strength
against both the euro and the yen and most Asian currencies. Interest
rates across the region should follow the Fed, which effectively means
that they will stay pat. However, there are likely to be some exceptions.


extracted from CIMB Q32014 market outlook.

This post has been edited by bcpbeancounter: Jun 5 2014, 09:10 PM
bcpbeancounter
post Jun 12 2014, 11:53 AM

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QUOTE(lowyatter @ Jun 12 2014, 11:40 AM)
Wrong again, Japan is only ~10% larger than Malaysia, and most of it is uninhabited.

In terms of Price / Rent and Price / Income it is the cheapest in the developed world.

user posted image
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you also wrong. Japanese prop only cheap if you earn japanese salary.
bcpbeancounter
post Jun 12 2014, 02:12 PM

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QUOTE(lowyatter @ Jun 12 2014, 11:56 AM)
Nope, check my edited post.

Average price of 2nd hand apartment in Tokyo is RM1,700 psf.

Outside of Tokyo it's even cheaper.

My family has bought multiple ski chalets in Hakuba for RM100 psf.
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you are wrong again. KL average price is less than rm1000psf. Tokyo is almost double of KL price.

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