you do understand the risks involved with Homer, right?

there is no broker coverage (stock is still unknown, except for that half baked Kenanga report the other day)
no news coverage...
not attracting funds .....

and then the USD impact...

this recent quarter is for the period Dec to Feb.

Next quarter is for Mar to May....

USD is said to be a big plus booster ....

you can actually have a sneak peep...

compare current Mar and Apr's USD rates versus last year....
what you see?

Errr.... my England not good enough.

Maybe that chart is not easy to see as a whole.



Let's begin again and let me shoot you a long posting.....
please note I am only explaining it as it is....
not a sell and not a buy....

If you read the earnings result, in fact the past few months, it is said that the HIGHER USD helped boost its profits.

homer's main business is its exports.

Yes exports.

Most of it, is sold in USD.

Higher USD translates to more ringgit, which means more profit.

Ok so far?

Yesterday result is for Dec 2013 to Feb 2014.

I dared to guess the result should be good.

This is because the USD multiple impact would be positive.

let show you...

This is the USD chart, from Dec 2013 to Feb 2014...



As you can say low USD was about 3.15, high was about 3.35....
and rough eye estimate is about 3.27 or so.... around there la...

Now compare to previous year period, ie Dec 2012 to Feb 2013...
yes compare against the previous year same period....

this is last year chart of that period...



low is about 2.94, high only 3.10
mostly... my rough eye estimate would say 3.05 or so.

Now if say Homer export sales is USD 2 million.
That USD 2 million, a year ago, using 3.05 would translate to around 6.1 million ringgit only.

Compare to this period, where the USD is around roughly 3.27.
That same USD 2 million translates to 6.54 million..

Same export figure but more ringgit back.

Ok so far?

please if I am wrong so far, say so la.
I also learn learn one....
boh tak chik one. (where did I read that from? )


Now this is where we get to GUESS the coming Q3 figures...
with the help of the USD current prices.

Next Q3 is for the period MARCH 2014 to MAY 2014.

First we get last year chart first...

This is how the USD traded last year for the period March 2013 to May 2013.



rough eye estimate? I would say 3.05.

Ok we only have March 2014 and Apr 2014 figures... May 2014 not here yet...

anyway this is where we are at....



my rough eye estimate.... maybe so far 3.25...

comparing 3.25 and 3.05....
I can safely guess we should see positive USD multiplier impact again for Homer....

which means.... would you guess that the next quarter, Homer should also report much better earnings?

ok so far?

No problem la.

The same can be used for a company like AirAsia.

We know for a fact that AirAsia borrowing is really big and the most crucial fact is that the borrowings are mostly in USD.

So given the comparisons of where the USD are now versus last year, we know for a fact AirAsia will be hit by forex losses.

Yes, AirAsia does hedge a portion (around 40% iinm) of its loans (last I recall reading, it hedged at 3.22) but that's enough.

Borrowing costs will increase and the difference in the USD will translates to losses.

LOL!

Apa macam bro?

I am a psychopath stock forumer, don't you remeember?

This thread only created yesterday.

The penny stocks bungee happened Monday but you must understand what kind of utterly garbage penny stocks we are talking about. (Posted charts on post #2)

Nah.. I copy and paste just for you again...

Candidate one..



Candidate two..



Candidate three..



Candidate four....



Outsider ......






Now tell me.... what kind of rubbish stocks are these in the first place?

Look at how they orchestrated the volumes!

Doh!

And now the media highlighting these stocks....

and what does it achieve?

the perfect dumping ground!!!

LOL!


and next thing you know... yesterday... we get all the negative spillover effects....

let me show you this of VIS....

This was Monday's chart...



Volume incredibly well orchestrated, right?
Volume maintained consistently high....
err... left hand jual right hand ... right hand jual right leg... right leg jual left leg... left leg jual right left hand...
lol

now if we look at the left side of the chart...



or the zoom in are of the left side....



we can clearly see that VIS is a bloody TARAK laku stock....

then suddenly all the volume came in beautifully orchestrated....


now thanks to Monday's drama minggu ini plunge..... suddenly VIS became laku.

from 20 sen to even 30 sen....

LOL! stock were sold at prices that weren't possible in 2013.


what do they say about stock distribution again?
are they distributed on the way up or down?

Yup. Good job or what.

... and then because of the plunge.....
... many of our punters....
somehow are programmed to think that fallen stocks means opportunity!

little do they know...
they are providing the perfect storm for the operator to REALLY start distributing DUMPING their shares.

LOL!

huh?

nice meh?

are you sure?

tell me, what's nice?

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh..... now VIS is up 10%!

LOL! LOL! LOL!


This is why everyone love the stock markets!

The profits came in or was helped by their high leverage strategy.

But there's a massive price or massive risk by such strategy.

It needs to keep borrowing forever.

Debts are increasing forever.

Last count? Their debts is now over 10 billion.

Feb profit notes showed over 10 billion la.....

Property, plant sure to increase due to the purchase of aircraft (which is a diminishing asset)....

it's caught in a financial whirlpool which is caused by the poor airline economics of business....

airlines need new aircrafts constantly.
it's a must.
who wants to fly in an old model aircraft?

to buy the new aircraft...
it needs to borrow like hell.....
if you read the report notes...
due to their big fei kei orders recently....
their borrowings can easily go over 50 billion in the future...

and then what do you get in return?

more competition (new budget airlines).....

and then.... your cost is actually increasing...

new lcct means higher costs.....

what about other costs?

it's a lousy business to be in.

you are worried about future cheap fares?

thing I am very worried is....
one day in the future....
when AirAsia loans go over..... say 30 or 40 billion..... and AirAsia gets into trouble....
will the rakyat faced with a massive, massive .....rescue bill?

MAS does not have such a spiraling debt issue as AirAsia.
IINM AirAsia recent plane order is more than 50 billion ringgit.

50 billion ringgit.

AirAsia currently have 1 billion + cash...
Cash is decreasing each quarter.....

not an issue?

I think you have a point there......

however the other clear point from a business perspective....
it's quite clear that KLIA2 is not good for AirAsia since the new terminal will put a massive problem to AirAsia's supposedly low cost model....

Interesting but it's still a rotten business to me.

I just see again..

Financial cost for recent fiscal year is 432 million.

Why you so happy?

Hehe

ok, here got how many 7 year olds then?

Not exactly new.

Last year already got problem.
If not mistaken its auditor said it cannot confirm bank balance of its subsidiary company.

shhhhh..... you post so much nanti who buy the china man stocks?

Summon me for what?

Beat less ah?