Well done! 

See you do do some research.

Yes, the company is not quite the same and the sundaily article explains why the huge jump in profits.

but but but... transform so fast, how is it possible? the article dated back in Jan14, after march they announce jump in revenue, is that even possible?

So many butts for what?

Search uncle google..
This old story avtually..
Can see article from 2010?
Red Media around for sometime already.

so how you think, this counter boleh? but now it has become china stock type, how do you see and rate such situation?

Yes, LonBis has a lot of loans.
Sometimes it's not the issue of how much loan a company has ....
it's more the issue how the company is building up the total loans.

First you can compare simple yardsticks... (see no need complicated ROIC or whatsoever)

I curi tulang and borrow cgmalaysia data.

in 2003, LonBis makes PAT (profit after tax) of 9 million. Total borrowings 36 million
current TTM PAT is about 16 mil. Total borrowings about 260 million.

So in a ten year span, PAT increases 7 million. (from 9 to 16million)
An increase of 77%.
However to increase 77%, the company's loans increase from 36m to 260m!!!!!
Loans increased 7.2x!!!!!!

Straightaway we know something not right.

Then we need to find out why....

We see the company buying and selling property, plant and equipment.

Straightaway.....we go face palm!!!!

latest annual report: http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1484433

page 49:
Gain on disposal of property, plant and equipment = (1,153,311)

LonBis lost 1.1 million from disposal of PPE!

Face palm !!!!!!!

Mind you LonBis borrows money one to buy PPE!

Do what cow business do until like this one?
How would you evaluate such a company?
Loans build up so much and then you find out the company loan build up is due to the constant purchase of PPE...
then only to discover company is also active selling those PPE they had purchased!!!

My face also pain.....

cannot see must see the next upcoming quarter result, so you will ask me to wait and see right???

if kena goreng in a few days/weeks then this chance might be wasted, ont the other hand, go and goreng this share without much knowledge about it also will get in trouble if any shit happens

so your current job is only playing ping pong? morning free, noon free, only evening play ping pong

I see. very good analysis. learnt something new today! 

"We anticipate that its net profit may grow at a CAGR of 18.5% in FY14-16, or RM20.7mil to RM32.7mil,

The nice story.... 

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Investi...ovid-FV-46-sen/

The fine line....

They say 46 sen because "RHB Research ascribed a 17.0 times fully diluted calendar year 2015 earnings per share, at a discount to the 18.9 times average of its peers."

Sounds innocent.

The finer line....
CAGR is not something like you dump into the wok and start frying....     

It's compounded annual growth...

and in this case ... compounded annual growth for TWO CONSECUTIVE years....

which means HOVID profits must fly from 20 mil to 32.7 mil or an increase of 63.5% over 2 years.

LOL!

This is where they get away with it...

when they RHB write CAGR of 18.5%, ordinary folks thinks 'ok what' , not a bloody fei kei target...

but when it's translated it means a bloody 63.5% increase in profits!!!!

Now put it a much better context when you relate to current prices...

price of Hovid this morning is 41 sen.
RHB says fair value is 46 sen or a 12.2% upside potential....

BUT to achieve this 12.2% upside, HOVID profits must increase 63.5% over the next 2 years!!!

face palm!



Hovid's current numbers?

2011 - lose money
2012 - 15.6 million profit
2013 - 20.3 million profit
ttm - 19.4 million profit -- huh? decrease wor! (current 9 months profit only 13.7 million - decrease 5%!)

come 2016 - can reach 32 million???

LOL!!!

come 2015 -- do you even remember what RHB wrote about Hovid today???

I read this news yesterday and did some analysis on hovid and found out that the net profit has dropped but RHB set a TP of 0.46. luckily no touch, after reading ur analysis, i have much better understanding now. 

I read this news yesterday and did some analysis on hovid and found out that the net profit has dropped but RHB set a TP of 0.46. luckily no touch, after reading ur analysis, i have much better understanding now. 

jonchai

Consider this...

Any chance of Zhulian company called X's business, which is doing badly NOW, rebound two years down the road?

vs

Any chance of company B's business, which is growing consistently NOW, continue to grow for another 2 years down the road?
Which sounds better?

jonchai

Zhulian's profits....       

profit dropped not too little hor.... eps only 1.8 sen.... 

Zhulian off my watchlist long long time ago liao ... 

Now watching E&O fly ... RHB kata 3.6, what you reckon? 

Then you did not note of HLIB comments on KNM?

KNM's eps is 1.8 sen. ( only 1.8 sen only)

When HLIB wrote, KNM at that time price was 90.5 sen, which meant that KNM is already trading at a pe of 65x!!


No problem so susah to fix.
All HLIB needed to do was to project KNM's eps to be 8.4 sen.

They gave this reason, that reason, this reason...
Which by alone, sounds reasonable....

But then...
when we compare the finer point...
what HLIB was actually saying was....
KNM eps would jump from 1.8 sen to 8.4 sen.

Cow jumped over the moon.

EPS is supposedly will increase 4.66 times!!!!

And because KNM's eps can jump so high...
they think a PE multiple of 16x is FAIR....

So 16 x 8.4 = 1.35 TP.

Now everyone can jump over the moon.
.... and yes...
this is where it's confusing for the average players.....
they be arguing how come if KNM so lousy...
why can KNM fly so high?

I thing I do know is RHB (or should we say OSK Research) is full of tong sampah!



E&O meh?

No follow Titijaya ah?

No cash to follow titi o 

My own TP is 3.5. Once hit, no care, cut and go. More than 30% liao