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 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market V5, Are the signs already there in Malaysia?

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bcpbeancounter
post Apr 4 2014, 11:07 AM

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Wow move to new house liao rclxm9.gif
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 4 2014, 09:08 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Apr 4 2014, 09:04 PM)
You wanna pay both smart ppl? You only pay RPGT..  in your example.. you making a loss.. there is no RPGT...

stamp duty is based on 700k.. hello I dun understand .. you only sell properties and dun buy properties ah smart ass?

LHDN has different valuation for stamp duty.. RPGT only 1 formula.. you mention there are different valuation remember?
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the more you guy talk the more i rclxub.gif .... can recap what is the argument?
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 5 2014, 10:06 AM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Apr 5 2014, 09:52 AM)
Welcome back, any good news for DDD?
Been talking DDD since 2008, US/euro crisis, china/Hong Kong/ausie price drop, QE tapering, Greece bankruptcy, BLR increased, n now car loan interest increase, water cuts etc....
Pls share more
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I will think that before make any comparison, must think of the risk profile first and the co relation between the 2. Otherwise, it is just comparing apple to orange.
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 5 2014, 10:53 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Apr 5 2014, 10:25 AM)
Agree...both are 2 different products.. but dont you tink dat property are higher in risk taking into account their price?.. told you before... dat day signed off thousands of demand letters for hire purchaser defaulters.. per bank..

property value has room for appreviation and can profit.. provided they are not flipped badly leaving no ro for appreciation.. these kind of defaulters surely low end flippers a lot esoecially those relying on rental proceeds are confirmed to be bancrupt..

ask amaya.. hire purchase which bank is top? Hmm ambank... public bank..

housing loans.. ocbc( aggressive).. cimb( prefer loans 500k above targetting middle clsss).. affin bank(45 years max loans now reduced to 35)... public bank(taking everyting othrr banks dun want to do 50k loan also do).. alliance bank( best interest rates as of now depending on tiers too).. hong leong bank ( flexi loans..personal loans.. constructions loans)

amaya surely know market is good or no good?.. write off alot?
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rclxub.gif

lets wait for financial crisis then.
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 5 2014, 11:19 PM

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QUOTE(AllnGap @ Apr 5 2014, 10:50 PM)
i have said it many many many times....

all the price appreciation after 2009 is caused by China's money, as they have released, USD 12,000 Billion into the market since early 2009. caused many countries properties prices to soar.

and malaysians as usual are ignorant at all the things happening outside of malaysia.

China is tightening now as we speak, a lot of companies are selling assets to pay their loans.
steel, copper is at 4 year low. overstock pile at China.

China will not consume so much as before, expect commodities price to go down.
since early 2012, china business already dropping. Factories orders dropping, debt keep on increasing, house price keep on increasing.

our local Malaysian market here keeps on running on local stimulus.
how long can you think it can keep on running ?  rolleyes.gif

najib already doubled our national debt from RM 200Bil to RM 550Bil.
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Intersting to know that china money is in malaysia prop market since 2009.
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 5 2014, 11:26 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Apr 5 2014, 11:22 PM)
But where did they buy? I dont see many in KL. So Iskandar only?
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Not sure le...your amaya got china buyer? rclxm9.gif
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 6 2014, 12:06 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Apr 5 2014, 11:53 PM)
china has too many populations... 1.2 billion  if no control it will be like India.. unhealthy growth in society with lack seducations, food, basic rights, protections and etc..

Malaysia even subsidies ppl who have more babies like Singapore, incentive... then again, in any capitalist country, working class always are 70% cannot run even population boom... so the majority products like educations, housing, food, cars, transport, and etc like it or not will to be for catering these group.. and these same group generate moneys for the rich..

so commodities must go in line with affordability..
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Why are u so worry about people cannot afford? Relax la...when developer cannot sell thier prop, sure they will lower thier price. Then only u buy la...but when people can buy, you keep telling people don buy, where banana going to find SH to buy her prop le...later she tulan lo...relax...eat more banana...good for pang sai.
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 6 2014, 12:36 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Apr 6 2014, 12:28 AM)
I wondet how are the same banks also approving credit cards and car loans?... defaults instructions are flooding like mad
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Any idea how many cc and hp loan defaulters also owing in housing loan?
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 8 2014, 02:08 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Apr 8 2014, 02:06 PM)
it has to be confirmed until a drop in Malaysia... then only a drop will suffice, with bank negara increasing the interest rates, i am sure with this sentiments it will hit Johor first. then to KV..
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Bingo...so wait...
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 8 2014, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Apr 8 2014, 02:12 PM)
no more simple supply and demand theory di right? i believe Singapore has has demand more than supplies one..
no need to scared ppl about property price down ppl will lose job and etc..

price can drop to 30%

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/03/03/ho..._n_4890376.html

http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/finding...correction.html
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I have throw out of the window on demand supply theory. Tipu one, all singaporean are demanding for at least 1 house but house price are dropping. It proof that demand > supply = price drop. Ya, hardly heard of singaporean kena goreng sotong. they still in the job but price drop. So wait till the bottom then buy. Simple right? rclxms.gif
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 8 2014, 11:26 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 8 2014, 10:55 PM)
Bnm interest rate is closely correlated to fed. It may take 2 to 3 years to hike 3%.

A year ago, usd was rm3.0, and rm have depreciated against almost all currencies in the last few months.
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3% increase over 3 years = no impact, at least to me and many others out there. hahaha....
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 8 2014, 11:28 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Apr 8 2014, 10:29 PM)
Talking is useless.. di.. real drop or increase we know later.. just less profit if it real drop.. my fear is even drop still high.. dat is jialat..
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so you wan it to drop back to how much? 2012 price, 2010 or 2008? you think possible or not?
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 8 2014, 11:38 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 8 2014, 11:34 PM)
There is nothing to stop you from believing your own numbers even is unrealistic.
In the event fed hike interest rate, cheap rm won't resist interest rise.
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the question is how much feb will increase in 1 year? 3%?
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 8 2014, 11:40 PM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Apr 8 2014, 11:38 PM)
Showing u a clear example of average price calculation may not be realistic, yet u say the calculation not realistic...... So who is more unrealistic?  laugh.gif  laugh.gif  laugh.gif
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i also interested to know why iceman said not realistic... hmm.gif with more prima house in the pipeline.
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 8 2014, 11:58 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Apr 8 2014, 11:53 PM)
Well i would think wait for klci to crash and buy all d cheap stocks is a more realistic hope.
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if tmrl klci drop 100 points you dare to buy or not?
if the mentality is to wait till it drop to bottom, regardless of what investment, that person can only wait, blam, wait, blame....opps 10 years pass...
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 9 2014, 10:53 AM

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QUOTE(prody @ Apr 9 2014, 09:32 AM)
Calm down. smile.gif
Nobody is saying all the UUU people do one thing or DDD people do another.

I repeat: My position is that UUU people are more likely to fall for it as they seem to be rushing into buying some properties.
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Bro, do you spend thousands on 4d/6d? I will see those fall under the scam are people who think that free lunch will fall on them. nothing to do with UUU or DDD. Why they pay 10% deposit without signing S&P? what is so attractive?
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 14 2014, 12:14 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Apr 13 2014, 11:55 PM)
Ya, usually property is the last item we will dispose. We will usually cut other expenses, dig deep into our wallet to keep them. Only at the last resort we will sell them.

I think only those flippers who went over board and without holding power will suffer the most. And they should  tongue.gif
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rclxms.gif

I think the biggest argument between the UUU and DDD is holding power. How long can an investor hold....DDD always think that those hope to flip at VP will die if the property cannot be sold immediately upon VP. Whereas UUU think that even if the property cannot be sold upon VP, they still can hold it for longer terms.
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 14 2014, 12:35 AM

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I think i ask before. How much is the supply and demand in the market now? Hope some expert can provide some insight view. To avoid unnecessary argument, the property that i refer to is residential property at RM1mil range. So Pr1ma and four season is OUT!
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 14 2014, 12:55 AM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Apr 14 2014, 12:50 AM)
How much is the supply and demand in the market now? If that can be accurately measured then investors will know where the market is heading and this thread would be redundant.

Read my post earlier on fake ads by RE agents on iprop, propwall etc....
Is there real demand? Of coz there is .... but affordability is another issue.
Why is that? Bcoz real est. agent post fake ads to push up the price exorbitantly. 
Poor fella really thinks his property really worth that much..... hahaha .... cool2.gif
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I don't think agent put up an ad just to push up the price. If i am agent, i will advertise at lower price instead of higher price to attract more call from buyers. I maybe wrong as i am not agent.
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 14 2014, 01:13 AM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Apr 14 2014, 01:04 AM)
U don need to believe me. Ask your agent frens ... someone who's close. Not your own personal agent tht wanna profit from you.
I presented the 1/3 theory abt the property ads in previous DDD thread. And an agent try to debut my theory accidentally bocor this secret. So I confirm with my cousin who is an agent. He told me over our drinking session. Beer caught his tongue.  cheers.gif

The tactic is; price is high to convince the seller to sell, and buyer desperate to buy (fear of "increasing" price).
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OK....you maybe right. By the way, I don't friend any property agent. tongue.gif I am craking my head on how to make them disappear from property market.

This post has been edited by bcpbeancounter: Apr 14 2014, 01:14 AM

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