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 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market V5, Are the signs already there in Malaysia?

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bcpbeancounter
post Apr 15 2014, 06:12 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 15 2014, 05:46 PM)
Bull run is people over react on upward trend, when price on downward trend, people will also over react. Gold is an example.
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to react on share market need less than 1 minute with internet banking. not sure about gold, never touch. To react on prop. fastest you also need 2 to 3 months. will that make a difference?

also to note that you only need small amount to get into share market. But to buy a house, I will think normal people will think, survey, calculate, etc before make decision.

This post has been edited by bcpbeancounter: Apr 15 2014, 06:14 PM
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 15 2014, 07:31 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Apr 15 2014, 07:25 PM)
Then i can tell u a 100% certain that the bank has breached BNM guidelines. When BNM warns bank, that means the bank is in trouble. They will definitely be penalized by the bank. No such thing when BNM warns a bank and the bank will do nothing. No waay! If what that guy say is true of course. But i have been wit two banks, there is no way somebody can get 110% loan, unless it just a banana on fire kind of news. Cannot be believe one. Unless that guy has political connection, try and report to BNM, i assure u that the Banks CEO will have sleepless nights.

Well if u meet the guy again, tell us which bank it is.
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Maybe the loan is term loans. Not normal housing loan?
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 15 2014, 09:04 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Apr 15 2014, 08:31 PM)
Thats advertised only. Nobody is selling at exact 500k. Well, last time offer from a buyer was 510k. Hmm need to meet the agent again.
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Relax la bro...are you going to sell now? If not, why bother the price?
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 15 2014, 09:57 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Apr 15 2014, 09:53 PM)
Wow 3 days banned ended.. who complaint.. talking peoperty price also got banned.. market getting serious already

haizz.. I saw a forumer here already refined his theory to include economic turnmoil and/or more restricted cooling measures implemented to warrant a price drop.. what are the the so called effective measures that cause drop in singapore and china?
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Halo....welcome back...this tread without u cannot fly...
Why so interested with sg and china? Google la...so lazy...tongue.gif
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 15 2014, 10:47 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Apr 15 2014, 10:44 PM)
Not different but the loans wil accumulate. Then he apply housing loan and the guy breach his incomw threshold like overstretch himself, and if BNM finds out, that bank will be trouble...well the guy handling it in d bank at least. Then BNM will investigate further..then they find out this is not one case but the bank has given lots of loan that overstrecth the credit of the borrowers...i shudder to think what would happen if it was me.

One good thing about BNM compared to other gov agencies like puspakom, pdrm, even sprm is that BNM cannot be bribed by people.
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Aiyo....people from the street cannot belanja kopi o....but bank ceo can belanja starbuck mah...cannot be zeti check herself right
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 15 2014, 10:50 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Apr 15 2014, 10:47 PM)
This is SOP only. If nobody report, BNM, Bank, developer, buyer, lawyer all keep quiet  tongue.gif
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1malaysia slogan....lu tolong gua...gua tolong lu...
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 15 2014, 11:04 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Apr 15 2014, 11:02 PM)
Alamak dont ask me this question laa..malas to think. I dont do interest i work in islamic bank..hahahaha. So seriously i dunno if it is illegal or not. Islamic bank, that is definitely illegal, and if BNM finds out, as an islamic bank, u r defintely screwed.
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Islamic credit card no late interest? Or profit if u wan to call it.
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 15 2014, 11:07 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Apr 15 2014, 11:04 PM)
Sorry amaya bank negara.. is not dat good.. you see tye gold issue.. gold label..  m8d valley there.. many ppl file receipts only to make claim.. many burned in investment.. all investors all in.. 100k.. 200k.. joint 500k.. monthly promised 5% return.. dat is 5k monthly.. they enjoy 4 montys.. then bank nwgara cime seize and freze accounts.. but left 20% money invested everyting else gone..

Gov on the other side want to telan / forfeit 20% leaving nothing to investors.. haizz.. on going battle..

all these investors are  gullible..  holding a receipt safe keeping from cirtis cisco singapore storage anyone heard b4?
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Thats why invest property lo...your house wont disappear overnight regardless what crisis.
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 15 2014, 11:16 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Apr 15 2014, 11:12 PM)
Nope..i believe it is administrative fee and it cannot be compounded.
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Then i should change my cc to islamic...just in case lupa to pay.
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 15 2014, 11:25 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 15 2014, 11:17 PM)
Income didn't increase at this pace, if these buyers are not over reacting, what is?
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Dulu can buy 3 units no loan. Now buy 1 unit with loan. Do this justify salary increase no need to match with prop price? Ok bo?
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 15 2014, 11:36 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 15 2014, 11:17 PM)
Income didn't increase at this pace, if these buyers are not over reacting, what is?
90% loan, 6-7% rebate, dibs, etc has lower barrier entry than playing stock contra.

Unless the property is fully paid off or has little loan else holding on incur negative cash flow.
Politicians love growing economic bubble even if it is unsustainable. BNM may have smart people but can they override the not so smart political masters?
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Contra no entry cost. I repeat, seldom see people buy property like shopping at MV. even if they buy blindly, there are still bank to to assess the credit ability.
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 15 2014, 11:55 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 15 2014, 11:42 PM)
Sure or not? What about those projects that "sold out" or 80% sold out at launch? Even during sales at MV, it is rarely that products are sold out in the first few days.

It is not unknown that banks accepted unverified or "future/proforma" rental income/tenancy agreement as borrowers supplement income.
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If can sold out within hours after launch that means market good la...people still can afford. Yes, i acknowledge there are people trying to cheat the banks, but banks are manage by professional. They hav various department to verify and approve the loan. Banks NPL wont at 0% for sure, but malaysian bank still at healthy level. Otherwise PBB won't at RM20 a share liao...



This post has been edited by bcpbeancounter: Apr 15 2014, 11:57 PM
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 16 2014, 12:09 AM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Apr 16 2014, 12:04 AM)
Bear bear
Don't keep mentioning 490k, it's already became history, you won't be able to get this price anymore
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ya lo....bear bear....what is your budget? Buy 1 now. See any good recomm from tai ko here.... unfortunately i dont hav any ready unit to sell now. biggrin.gif
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 16 2014, 12:13 AM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Apr 16 2014, 12:08 AM)
That area will be good for sure, velocity will definitely change the environment, MRT station, and very near to city center.
Any news about ikea?
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Ikea at Maluri? hmm....bad news for the traffic which already at bad shape now.


bcpbeancounter
post Apr 16 2014, 12:38 AM

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QUOTE(woody33 @ Apr 16 2014, 12:26 AM)
Ikea bring ong-ness mah, see how it transforms D' Perdana.
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yes....but can you imagine if you stay at that area? sunday also jam cry.gif btw, it should be mutiara damansara

This post has been edited by bcpbeancounter: Apr 16 2014, 12:39 AM
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 16 2014, 09:00 AM

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Wah lao eh....bbw and iceman...why you all hav no confidence with bank meh....later should i sell my shares in bank? tongue.gif
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 16 2014, 11:17 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 16 2014, 10:31 AM)
Joint purchase was not available previously? If a couples couldn't save enough for downpayment likely means they may not have surplus cash after expenses. Low entry cost + dibs unit have a higher loan installments, means these couples are over stretched.
Before U.S, E.U economy crisis in 2008, how many people question the banks? Bnm may be strict and clean but can bnm override those incompetent political masters?
If one worked closely with banks will know how much bank policy is influenced by sentiments.  Given what had happened in the u.s and e.u, bankers are people, they are not un erring and could miscalculated.
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from what i understand about US sub-prime, the bank repackage the loan into derivative so that those not qualified to apply housing loan can access to financing. That increase the banks exposure to credit risk. In Malaysia, save for those who manage to cheat the banks using fake documents (i believe the number are small), bank will not approve the application if someone not qualify. These people can only turn to Ah Loong for financing. No sub-prime package for them to choose. Even with DIBS, free legal fee etc, i still beleive majority of the buyers will consider holding power...and bank will not approve loan if someone has no holding power.
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 16 2014, 03:49 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 16 2014, 02:44 PM)
No doubt banks will approve the loan under current guidelines. However, with $84k annual income and don't have a habit or cash left over to save 24k a year will find monthly loan repayment over stretched.
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halo...24k/84k less than 30% le...still cannot afford than don buy lo...wait for salary to increase further then only buy la....or settle with a smaller house. RM150K still can get a house ok...if want big, want cheap...ask father buy la... biggrin.gif

when come to certain stage, kuda mati jalan kaki....sure can afford one...don't worry.

This post has been edited by bcpbeancounter: Apr 16 2014, 03:59 PM
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 16 2014, 03:55 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 16 2014, 03:49 PM)
If they are your competitors, they are over stretched and likely to default if interest rate increased by over 2 %. It won't be too late to pick dead chicken from them.
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many are waiting for dead chicken here. but unlikely interest will increase by 2% at 1 go or even in a year. if over the years, people's income also can increase one mah...
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 16 2014, 04:18 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Apr 16 2014, 04:14 PM)
not really.. if you lay down the cost of the following:

a)2 cars, (minimum Myvi, 1.4k, if vios 1.8k)
b) petrol ( 700 both cars)
c) insurance cars ( yearly both cars 1.2 k.. monthly around rm100)
d) insurance medical cards ( for both monthly cheapest 130 per person, both 260)
e)food ( calculating on an average of RM 20 perday i.e breakfast rm4, lunch & dinner rm16,
  so 21 working days= RM420
  balance 9 or 10 days (weekends)= rrm280, assuming RM35 per day
  total per person basic only= 700 per person
  so 2 persons minimum 1.4 k monthly
f) parents money minimum 500 (both)
g) entertainment ( movies, GSC normal halls minimim RM14 per person,  assuming per week 1 watch total 1 time 1 week, RM112)
h) internet bills, water bills, electricity bills= 140 + 40 + 160 (with air corn)=360
i) telephone bills + data plans if any = 88 X2 =180
j) credit cards ( 3 pieces), spending on clothings.. shoe.. socks= RM500 (BOTH)
k) car repairs, service ( RM200)
l) health supplements ( forever living, amway, and etc) monthly both = RM100
m) ladies shampoos, masks, toners, and etc= RM100
n) etc = rm200
o) SAVINGS =0

so, all in all a+b+c+.....n= 1800+ 700+ 100+260+ 1400+ 500+112+ 360+ 180+ 500+ 200+ 100+ 100 +200
=6512.00

So monthly 10k to 12 k gross, nett 8,900 or 10, 680.. minus PCB,sosco..8600 or 10k nett..

dude this is joint salary nett 8600 to 10k on an JOINT of RM10K to RM 12K

so nett joint salary -  joint expenses =
A)2,088 ( 8600-6512) OR
B) 3,488 ( 10K -6512)

so if situation A were used to take up a loan 500k... 90% finance margin.. they have no savings or even e xtra money for the month.. this also can be done if these joint buyers has more than 80k at least as deposits and legal fees..and bare in mind 500k.. almost cant buy anything new especially flipped priced..this price ah.. apartment or at best service apartment (have to pay maintenance).. WAY TO GO for middle class... apartment

situation B would be slightlybetter.. they can buy /qualify palm walk 3 750k.. monthly repayment 3k plus maximum stretched and with at least 100k as deposit and legal fees..

based on both.. you guys still want to rise the house prices upwards... we shall see which pools of buyers are left if property shoot above 750k... if i miss out anyting anyone can correct please... TQ
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a lot of the expenses you mentioned can be cut down...just want or don't want.

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