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 Bursa Trader V4

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gark
post Apr 15 2014, 03:57 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 15 2014, 03:56 PM)
tongue.gif

need me to draw picture out of the wall meh?

You forgot my pisang points meh?

I know, wait for next profit report but I really do not like how the stock is trading. wink.gif

And you know the implication on the mother share hor... wink.gif
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Hahaha... understood, I really want to see the Q results.

The major shareholder sold down some, it created a temporary panic. wink.gif

This stock seems to mirror Dsonic's movement lol... laugh.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Apr 15 2014, 04:00 PM
gark
post Apr 15 2014, 04:39 PM

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QUOTE(jonchai @ Apr 15 2014, 04:14 PM)
Your dream may come true .... Lau sai already 2.75
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Lau sai like that still PE 22x.. keng. thumbup.gif

how over value the share is at the first place. rolleyes.gif

DSonic based on FY14 PE 15 x .. FV RM 2... brows.gif

That one IF can continue to maintain the profitability... tongue.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Apr 15 2014, 04:42 PM
gark
post Apr 15 2014, 04:44 PM

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QUOTE(jonchai @ Apr 15 2014, 04:43 PM)
Wait next Q and see. If can deliver 10% better than last Q, then will fly again  brows.gif
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I think PE 15x already account for the growth already.... tongue.gif

If stagnant growth or u-turn then PE 10x.. FV RM 1.40 ... whistling.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Apr 15 2014, 04:46 PM
gark
post Apr 15 2014, 04:48 PM

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QUOTE(jonchai @ Apr 15 2014, 04:46 PM)
hmm.gif

So you're suggesting it will be a free fall to 2.x from now?
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Stock price NOT EQUAL to FV one .. can undershoot or overshoot one... whistling.gif
gark
post Apr 15 2014, 04:52 PM

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QUOTE(jonchai @ Apr 15 2014, 04:48 PM)
Which other co. are u using as benchmark for your FV?
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No need other co.. just look at the earnings report only...
gark
post Apr 15 2014, 04:58 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Apr 15 2014, 04:56 PM)
you made me  cry.gif ,
But hor last 3 weeks already up almost 15 % every bank. So correction a bit is normal actually.
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China bank is also like a rubber band stretched too far already... but this one not the price but the NPL... whistling.gif

Like Boon say.. waiting when want to snap only... rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Apr 15 2014, 04:58 PM
gark
post Apr 15 2014, 04:59 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 15 2014, 04:57 PM)
The human mind is strange at times....

when the stock moves up... people scared it fall.
when the stock moves down.... people scared they miss out if the stock U-turn and rise back.

why?

whistling.gif
*

GREED
wink.gif
gark
post Apr 15 2014, 05:00 PM

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QUOTE(jonchai @ Apr 15 2014, 04:56 PM)
Quote gark .... Heart must be steady  brows.gif
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If FV wrong.. then dig own grave lar.. apa steady steady? tongue.gif
gark
post Apr 15 2014, 05:03 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Apr 15 2014, 05:00 PM)
I also scared scared when see the NPL....hold these stocks for 1 and half year. Can't even beat FD.

Lee Kah Shing just cancelled many developer project in Mainland China...made me more  sweat.gif
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The NPL they let you see is just the tip of the ice berg... a lot of NPL is off the books one in china.. like lehman minibonds where the FFF risk is re-packaged into a AAA investment.

Already got a few of these 'investment grade' default, but still the government cover up... the rest when want burst only. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Apr 15 2014, 05:04 PM
gark
post Apr 15 2014, 05:06 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 15 2014, 05:01 PM)
I remember.... reading recently a report saying the banks were selling under its cash per share value....

rolleyes.gif

I wonder why.... tongue.gif
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Cause the cash on hand the shares will be worth nothing once the big big NPL all shows up... wink.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Apr 15 2014, 05:07 PM
gark
post Apr 15 2014, 05:08 PM

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QUOTE(jonchai @ Apr 15 2014, 05:04 PM)
If burst, then really no eye see. Msia property market will burst too
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Msia property market burst... construction supply business can chap lap already.. jonchai no work de...

Better don't wish for that. sweat.gif
gark
post Apr 15 2014, 05:12 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Apr 15 2014, 05:06 PM)
I actually know de...shadow banking mah.

I sigh this for sometimes already. Maybe one word stubborn. Since 07 these bank macam never recovered one.

Those US investment bank almost every month also post regarding the NPL , shadow banking , toxic assets  sweat.gif

Can say I hear until no feeling already.

Stock up and down like roller coaster. sometimes up 8 % in one day, sometimes drop 8% in one. vmad.gif
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Nah new one... how they repackage these toxic loans....

QUOTE
The risks have ballooned as China has added new credit roughly equal to the size of the entire US banking system in just the past five years.

Total debt as a percentage of GDP has increased from 130 per cent in 2008 to about 220 per cent at the end of last year, according to estimates from Fitch Ratings.

An increase of that speed and scale has almost always been succeeded by a crisis in other economies.

The big concern in China is that much of the debt build-up – as much as half of all credit extended last year by some estimates – has happened in the opaque and lightly regulated “shadow banking” sector.

The failure of Chaori Solar Energy Science and Technology has been called China’s ‘Bear Stearns moment’. Diana Choyleva, of Lombard Street Research, tells John Authers it may need a larger Lehman-type failure if it is to deal with its overhang of debt.

Shadow banking in China is much less sophisticated or toxic than the financial engineering that happened on Wall Street before the 2008 financial crisis and its capacity to shake the broader system is also a lot more limited.

But that does not mean investors should not worry.

Much of the credit coming from the shadows goes to risky, high-interest loans to struggling property developers, steel mills or glass factories that cannot borrow directly from the more regulated state banks.

A sizeable portion of these multiyear loans are then repackaged into poorly documented financial products with maturities of just several months.

These are then sold through banks to ordinary investors with promised returns that are well above government-capped deposit rates.

When pressed by the regulators, banks insist any risk associated with these products is borne by investors but the vast majority of investors believe these products are ultimately guaranteed by the state.

After all, they were sold by state banks, sometimes with explicit but illegal guarantees from overeager salespeople, and until recently the government has always stepped in at the last minute to make sure these products do not collapse.


This post has been edited by gark: Apr 15 2014, 05:13 PM
gark
post Apr 15 2014, 05:21 PM

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QUOTE(jonchai @ Apr 15 2014, 05:12 PM)
It's a telltale sign. In fact, we expected that to happen last year. It didn't. But it should in the next 2 years. Property market, as usual, booms and busts.
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Indonesia property counters has on average dropped >60% since last August.. whistling.gif

Now mostly selling for 50%-70% discount to BV...

Dare to buy? brows.gif
gark
post Apr 15 2014, 05:27 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Apr 15 2014, 05:22 PM)
PRC have serious economy problem.

Start from 2008, the shanghai index composite behave like very long U curve that probably last a decade for economic restructure. ( similar taipei index in 1980's )
*
There was once a super power country from a poor war torn country suddenly become wealthy due to industrial might... everybody thought they are invincible... economy was good, property market rise at unprecedented pace at least 20-30% a year, banks were lending like no tomorrow, then follow by stock market which is super bullish, everyone was rich... it was happy times indeed.

Then the rubber band snapped....

It has happened in history before... guess which country is this.. how long to wait for breakeven? rolleyes.gif

user posted image

This post has been edited by gark: Apr 15 2014, 05:31 PM
gark
post Apr 15 2014, 05:31 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Apr 15 2014, 05:28 PM)
Indomee! tongue.gif
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Wrong! tongue.gif
gark
post Apr 15 2014, 05:32 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Apr 15 2014, 05:28 PM)
japanese "cough cough"

But cannot compared japanese economies at 1970's to current china now la.
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Not directly comparable yes, but some downturns can last several decades, you will first die before you can manage to breakeven... sweat.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Apr 15 2014, 05:32 PM
gark
post Apr 16 2014, 10:12 AM

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Hmmph... looks like another boring day.. not low enough to buy, not high enough to sell.. stuck in no man's land. yawn.gif
gark
post Apr 16 2014, 10:12 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Apr 16 2014, 10:10 AM)
Dunno, just wild guess tongue.gif

Never listen to the drunk accountant laugh.gif
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Not 'ham sap' accountant meh? hmm.gif
gark
post Apr 16 2014, 10:46 AM

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QUOTE(lambethwalk @ Apr 16 2014, 10:35 AM)
Gark, what is the easiest way to calculate fair value for a stock?
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This one ah.... sweat.gif

There are many ways to calculate fair value one, it is more of an art than science... so it depends on each individual expectation of the stock growth.

The most basic will be PE.. BUT it has a lot of limitations...My back of the envelope (ie. fast method) FV calculation will be... rolleyes.gif

FVPE = (5 Year FUTURE Growth% + DY% p.a.)*100
FV = FVPE x TTM OR better future expected EPS (if you have)

Example : Stock A, you expect it to have growth of 10% p.a. and currently yield 3%. You expect FY14 EPS to be 20 cents/share

FVPE =(10%+3%)*100 = 13
FV = 0.20 x 13 = RM 2.6

Please note this is just the fast method, if it looks interesting to you, you NEED to investigate further on the free cash flow, net cash/debt, profit margin, growth sustainability, RNAV, DCF, management etc etc...

There is NO sure way of calculating FV one... if you put super high growth expectations, everything will also look very cheap, so be very very conservative. sweat.gif

Again I repeat, getting FV is an ART not a calculable SCIENCE because the market, company and profits change all the time... and more often than not you will wrong MOST of the time. wink.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Apr 16 2014, 10:52 AM
gark
post Apr 16 2014, 10:48 AM

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QUOTE(jonchai @ Apr 16 2014, 10:40 AM)
I believe he has a huge Excel sheet with all the formulas and variables, ready to plug and play. Now, the easiest way is to hack his PC  brows.gif
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Nope dont believe in excel and all those formula.. evaluating Fv is like evaluating fine wine.. via taste, smell and experience. wink.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Apr 16 2014, 10:48 AM

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