TSH went up 5 sen.. aisey....

Havent finish collecting...

No need wait....
I am on strike.

HE BOT 

Apasal on strike pulak? 

Lol this share must hold for 5-10 years before can become fruit.. u want to wait that long meh? 

The palm tree itself need 7 years from young to mature and bear fruit.. the empty land need to be planted. TSH currently have very young trees >50% at less than 3 years old, and >60% of land not planted yet.

So it DOES need a LONG time to realize the profit.  In the mean time all earnings will be plowed back for new plantings at 4k-5k ha per year.

After all the trees are matured and fully planted in 10 years or so, i believe the EPS will easily be 3x even at low palm oil price.

Gotta think more long term.. the best gains are when you have the patience to wait...

10 years, minimum 3x EPS not good enough meh? 

lol just kidding

CB rallying again.. 

Long term so scary one ah?

In fact they are looking to buy another 30k land by 2H2014... yeah 25 years is about right.. 

Err...

have you ever look at a good stock and how they perform in a 10 year span?

Think they all die one meh?

Why you say so leh?

tstan8_8

Don't get me wrong.
I am not promoting super long term investing.
I am not.
I am a trader.

I already said before, more important is to know yourself.
If you can be short trader, good.
If you can be super long term investor, good.

However, I believe there is too much market fallacy.
Bad teachings...

One common saying is all super long term investment sure die one...
There have their reasons too...
For example, every 10 years, there sure to be a market crash one....
True...

But will all shares die?
Will all shares crash and die?

Actually a lot did poorly, some even died.... but not all.

Let me take a simple stock.
I will use a 10 year period, from 2004 to 2014.

Here's one stock.

It did not die within a 10 year time frame.



Here's a thing you should ask...

why this one no die?

I am not a stock promoter.

Seriously.

That one is just an example.

Just like this one below.



An example to show you 10 years investing does not mean sure die.

Why?

Cos those are the common examples lor.

In terms of PE is very expensive now at about PE 20-25x. It is also not a share for short term gains.

But growth potential is 15-20% p.a. due to maturing palm oil estates. Currently TSH has about 25k ha of newly matured trees (age 5-12) and another 15k ha of unmatured trees (<5 years). Once trees reach prime maturity between age 12-18 they can produce 20-24 ton per ha. Currently TSH newly matured trees are only doing 16-18 ton per ha as they have not reach peak maturity. FFB production is projected to grow at 15-20% p.a. in the foreseeable future due to continuous plantings.

However TSH has another 70,000 ha (including new aquired 27,000 ha in Sabah) which is not planted yet. At the rate of planting of 4000-5000 ha per annum, the unplanted reserves will last >10 years. At cost of planting per ha up-to maturity of USD 16k per ha, TSH will need to keep plowing in money for capex at rate of >250 million a year. Part of this capex will be adsorbed by the profits (currently about 50%), and the rest by loans and cash reserves. Almost every year TSH is doing PP to raise capital and I am not surprised they will continue to raise required capital at least until 2016-2017 where their profits are sufficient to cover 100% of thier thier capex.

So the price will be muted for a while due to the high valuations and people have no patience waiting for the trees to grow. And do not expect good dividend with such high capex requirement for the next 10 years. 

I give you a big name stock...



company not die yet.....

Can not....
stock no longer exists means no more chart.
Maybe dig around some blogs.
Maybe this PN17 example...  

Ya the dilution is a factor, but more or less they have no choice, they need the money. Unless good CPO price boost their profit temporary then they might need less borrowing.

Even the main shareholder got his share diluted to 18%... you see in announcement he almost everyday try to buy back as much as possible to raise his stake back.

This company easy target for takeover since the main shareholder % is so small..... i think he knows

found this...


Love the chart of Transmile going up....

chart of Transmile going down...

Q5eG0/s400/TRANMIL_chart_28Mar2008.PNG[/img]

and another...

Biggest thing I remember was how those that were 'stuck' in the counter...
turned into stock forums super promoters...

They yelled 'Robert K's counter la... Robert K won't let his counter die 1 ....'

Robert kuok... most well known with the name sugar king

OMG!

Next time i havent finish collecting cannot post in this forum liao...     

Too many spies....