Are you sure?

 

Sure can.

If make money then you thank me.

If you mati...blame yourself for being a waterfish.

LOL

You dont go scare ah boon.. later he dun wan give tipsy hahahahahaha 

why the 1 buck and 76 cents target.. not understand.. 

The lower we buy the better right? 

Nope.



You buy a share...
You think you are correct....

But share goes down....

What does this mean?

Market thinks you are wrong.


If you buy more... it means you are buying more of 'your wrongness'....

*cough* *cough*

Throwing Buffett quotes at me meh?

Ahem... TODAY you are asking me about ....

quote: Was thinking average up on &a& and homer .. what you think?


My answer is Insas needs to show me 1 buck first.
And Homer needs to be above 76 sen.

Those are the points where I would only consider buying .....

You know me, I favor buying higher most of the time and you know I don't like to buy low.

So what's this got to with what market and what voting machine?

Fisher? Is he Fish Leong friend?
Graham? He's the most famous manager at Arsenal many years ago... right?

You simply buy just to average up and you will end up in Holland.

Suggest you to do more research.
It's not as simple as you think.
Do it wrong and you will turn your winnings into big losses.

Insas is a straight up 'value play' thingy....
The discount to fair value will always exist.

You better ask Gark.

To judge FV, you need to take apart the company into single business, value them and add them back up plus cash equivalent and  minus out all the liabilities. 

Be very careful when making FV, be as negative as possible, if you are too positive on a stock you tend to over value things... 

My FV for most counters is like really low... In fact so low... Boon always 'ketuk' me one. 

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/ma...ergency-3276797

Walaurhhhh!!!!!!

No la....

This what you call.....when you shit..you really shit non stop!

Just saw the Glove horses....

Today....

Kossan -3.4%
Top Glove -4.12%
Supermax -1.98%
Harta -4.74%








 
I don't bottom fish.........

Pick up when it's the lowest, does sound like a good idea.
But how does one know what it the lowest point?
You need the data to be past data to confirm the lowest.

After hitting the lowest, does it mean we can make money?
Some stocks bounce back up after hitting the lows.
Some don't. They trade sideways, coma like, after hitting the lows.

Yes, the need for gloves is there.
Billion dollar industry.

But why are the glove stocks falling in tandem?

You need to understand this issue, instead of looking at charts and trying to pick bottoms. 

Obviously, Top Glove is the main culprit.
Internal problems started the rot for Top Glove...
Then its weak profit report last weak sent shock waves to the sector.....
Do read Top Glove's report.....

When the market leader sneezes, everyone catches cold.

First thing first.

For whatever it is worth, we are still talking companies making millions of dollars.
In Top Glove's case, it's still a company making roughly 180+ million profit, as per what it's last 12 months profit suggest.
But the stock is tanking really bad.
Why?
The market always prices companies for what it could earn in the future.
In their eyes, they reckon the glove companies because of the extreme over capacity issue, which caused intense competition, thus driving the selling prices lower, could earn much less profit in the future.
Much less profits means lower future stock prices.

Laughable, the main issue is self inflicted.
Kamikaze!
Die ownself!
Caused by own greed!!
or maybe ego!

Why do I say so?

Uncle Google told me so.

Things like this, what's the first thing to search on the net?

Me?

I searched the key words, RUBBER GLOVE CAPEX.

One of the links that caught my attention was this blog posting dated 2010. Incredible write up by Moolah. What an incredible foresight to see the potential problems as early as 2010 !!

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&es...1,d.dGI&cad=rja

Then I decided to refine my searches.
I searched for TOP GLOVE CAPEX.
Then SUPERMAX CAPEX
Then KOSSAN CAPEX (not much hits.... )
Then HARTALEGA CAPEX

There lies the problem.

It's self inflicted.

All these glove markers despite making good money are not satisfied.
They want more.
Hehe... is greed good?
So they are forever and forever expanding....

With all the expansion comes competition.
And resultant is lower selling prices....

And for companies like Top Glove,
instead of profits growing..
profits is now declining....

Dei sei?

My opinion is ...... I think so........

I know, you are saying NO this might be a cycle.

In my humble opinion, I don't think so.
The rubber gloves has became a required product.
It's not going anyway soon.
The demand is going to be lasting.

However, the BOOM time is gone (that's what I was saying initially)....

Back in ... I think 2008 or maybe earlier....
the rubber glove industry was in its infant stages....
then came the big boom.... in 2009 or is it 2010.... (do check the dates la)
demand erupted...
glove demands soared...
companies expanded to cope with the rising demand....
they increased lines...
they bought over smaller companies....
BUT ..... after all these years..... I believe they have clearly over expanded.....

Could the industry boom again?

Well.... how?
The price war has to be stopped.
The over supply issue has to be stopped.
Would it happen anytime soon?
I doubt it.

And even once all this issue is resolved, the other possibility is that the industry earnings stabilize.
Yes, stabilize.
Have you thought about this possibility?
Why should it be a BOOM, BUST, BOOM?
Why not BOOM, decline, stabilize?

Meanwhile... with profit decline looming for the sector...
and stock prices still priced fairly HIGH.....
I am not optimistic about the sector future.....
It's way too early to put money in the sector.
My 3 sen la.

What are WE going to do?

 
I am STARING at my monitior, counting gark's profits.
       

very little only lah.. no need count.. 

Insas momentum continues.. 65 mil volume. 

Look back in dec.. i gave a 3 page review on this stock + valuation. 

KTL still in accumulation mode.. get more oil first... bigger fire.. 

No cut loss kah?ah boon is the first one disagree