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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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value_investor
post Feb 4 2014, 09:28 PM

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QUOTE(blowwater101 @ Feb 4 2014, 09:21 PM)
Hi bro, bank never owned the asset, it is only collateral....it wont affect bank asset value when the prop value dropped.
wink.gif

margin call cannot make sense at all as long as the borrower service the loan...based on my research, HK gone thru so many up & down in prop price (even the price drop 1/3), they never practiced margin call on prop...if someone can proved me wrong then good, i learn new knowlegde, thank you wink.gif
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This have to confirm with someone who works in bank. In USA it definitely affects!

value_investor
post Feb 4 2014, 09:43 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Feb 4 2014, 09:36 PM)
More reason to say that subprime crisin in the US cannot happened in Malaysia. Banks are covered and they vet the loans properly. Only people that can service their loan monthly can get the loan from malaysias banks. As i said before, even if u are bankrupt some banks in the US give out the housing loan to u albeit with higher interest dur to the perceive high risk of the borrowers.
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Kinda agree, in the US the buyers offload the risk to banks, and the banks offload them to institutions (Collateralized Mortgage Obligations), in turn offload to insurance companies (CDS), and finally to tax payers.

But a correction is still imminent!

This post has been edited by value_investor: Feb 4 2014, 09:45 PM
value_investor
post Feb 4 2014, 11:16 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Feb 4 2014, 10:26 PM)
I think you have mistaken an investment company which have to "mark to market" their assets vs banks in malaysia which is giving out loans with property as collateral

If bank have to mark to market, then how about loans without collateral, like personal loans and corporate loans. These loan have to mark to zero ? What about car loans which the car depreciate faster than the repayment of the loan ? How to mark down ? Banks have to do it every month ? tongue.gif
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Even without collateral it is possible to arrive at fair value. Further reading http://www.sirudorealty.com/assets/PDFs/Mark-to-Market.pdf

CODE
In the current and prevailing mortgage market, the mark-to-market only occurs
during the lender’s due diligence as part of the loan approval process.
The only other occurrence is of course when an existing loan is refinanced.
The risk associated with a lack of mark-to-market as a risk management tool is that
during the life of a loan, the market volatility, due to decline in property values, can
cause the risk for both mortgagor and mortgagee to be substantially different from
such calculated risk at the time of the origination of the loan.
Such risk can be alleviated by using the mark-to-market model on an annual basis
and adjust the exposed risk on the lender’s balance sheet.
R(it) = P(it) – L(it) + D(it)
The risk (R), at time of loan initiation, equals the FMV of the property minus the
loan amount increased with the original down payment.
In this formula, the risk is zero from a theoretical perspective. However, from a
mortgagee balance sheet perspective the loan will have a book value of 95%, which
includes an expected industry average default risk of 5%.
...

value_investor
post Feb 5 2014, 08:25 PM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Feb 5 2014, 01:40 PM)
Ok seriously. I know I didn't asked those accounting questions but it's good to learn new stuffs right?
So please if u ARE an accountant. Pls contribute the real info.
Just begin you comment with 'I'M AN ACCOUNTANT' .... then the facts. Thank you.

As for those who contributed the infos, just post 'I'M AN ACCOUNTANT' if u r one so at least I can take your previous comments seriously.
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Accountants are not the most successful investors and businessmen. In fact, it is the opposite!
value_investor
post Feb 6 2014, 02:21 PM

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QUOTE(hikari @ Feb 6 2014, 04:48 AM)
Well, Im afraid it's not just me and that none of us here get your point or understand what you are trying to explain.

Obviously during property booming your bank selling price and during property bubble is different. So many factors comes into picture.  Interest rate risk, growing household debt leading to higher risk of npl, lesser room for growth for the bank etc will price your bank differently.

We were talking about property price drop affecting loan receivables. And now it becomes selling off banks. I guess we r drifting further away from the initial discussion. But nonetheless, I would really want to know how any of these affect the borrowers/property investors as ultimately that's what all of us are interested in. Not how a bank accounts for things n write off things.  Probably should do it in the other section on stocks to value public bank, maybank or cimb shares value. LOL
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I'm not accountant, but multimillionaire. I'm the only one who agrees with Tikaram here u think!
value_investor
post Feb 7 2014, 05:26 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 6 2014, 05:13 PM)
Probably you haven't live through a recession or didn't have friends were in business.
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First, it is in loan agreement. Second, let's forget how loan is done in accounting, but when property value drops, LTV changes, so it makes sense to have margin call.
value_investor
post Feb 7 2014, 05:33 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Feb 6 2014, 10:42 PM)
I am partyless I did not registered my self to any party yet but I voted and twice dis time kajang..

ananya is not the only one just a mere ficticious example or I can say just mere association of convienence... pertama residency.. lido residency..connought avenue.. iskandar project.. and etc..

fact 1 government removal of DIBS
fact 2 RPGT increase to 30 percent
fact 3 1 million restriction to foreigner especially singapore and china
fact 4 many units high rise and landed are sold but vacant
fact 5 many of the owners are middle working class and holding powet is zero
fact 6 many agents/ property owners here commenting

So I did not say it is bubbling.. it is the GOVERNMENT say is as least what I derived from their action..
u want to say based on your facts ppl should opt to buy buy buy mode?

I consider I reply both post in 1.. fact 7.. KLCC view is totally blocked when sunvelocity completed.. check out the works and level sunvelo has whether it blocks or notvif you insist to buy..
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fact 7 developers must be transparent in pricing, so discounts are factored when bank calculates LTV
value_investor
post Feb 7 2014, 05:37 AM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Feb 7 2014, 12:53 AM)
fact 5, i disagree... i think middle working class still got holding power...
fact 6 we are all property owners right? me, you and everyone else... smile.gif i mean you're just stating the obvious fact...so this fact is meaningless imho...

fact 4, probably true..i noticed a lot of empty car parks for most of the condos...but it has been this way for many years and i don't see any issue based on this... smile.gif
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Middle class ppl have the least holding power. When recession hits, many will lose their jobs or face decrement!
value_investor
post Feb 7 2014, 05:42 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Feb 7 2014, 01:28 AM)
well well another junior member of LYN... hopefully not having 2 accounts:

fact 1: developers as usual as malaysia boleh land can bring back DIBS in a backdoor way in any form of rebate.. this also show most of flippers have limited cash and holding power due to the need of bringing back DIBS... BARE IN MIND that in the secondary market DIBS will never be rebate by the agents/flippers/investors right? is n't it deter ppl from absorbing your secondary market? correct or not this game developers also aware that the property market needs DIBS

FACT 2: hope holy god will assist you of earning 70k less 30k? or it the other way around? factoring the 30% into the selling price? the appetite of the investors has been very sumptous prop 450k flipped 750 ( all targeting at least 200k nett profit)

fact 4: yes in primary market.. but all are investors intending to flip that resulted property sold but vacant...

fact 5: because when it reaches the 750k mark and above... ur pool of buyers (please read the salary discussion which have been addressed in depth) shrinks to only middle upper class.. and the rich (these are flippers).. so how all of a sudden malaysian majority are middle upper class earnings?

are u saying that the cooling measures are in fact to promote BBB rather that DDD? OR STOP speculation?

yet another agents jumps into the boat to re-ask the question that has been addressed..
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Bank Negara states very clearly that any schemes with traits of DIBS will be banned by banks for bridging loans. So i think big and reputable developers will all avoid backdoors!
value_investor
post Feb 8 2014, 06:56 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Feb 8 2014, 02:15 PM)
Gold got no rental income but properties do. Simple statement that everybody understands that property is better.

Gold got no maintenance? Wrong! If u hold a lot of gold, it needs to be insured. Thats what jewellers do.
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Property shouldn't be compared to Gold as they are two different class of assets. Gold is better compared to Bitcoin, Platinum, Diamond, etc. On the other hand, property should be compared to similar yield generating assets, e.g. REIT, bonds, FD, blue chip stocks, etc. When property is compared to asset of its class, it generates the worst yield! So expect correction, just like the recent crash of REIT!
value_investor
post Feb 8 2014, 08:09 PM

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QUOTE(neonikson1 @ Feb 8 2014, 08:05 PM)
Should invest in precious metals then? Now they are cheap n hedges on usd.
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Precious metals are the worst of all investment asset classes. As it sits in the vault and does nothing productive to the economy!

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