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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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kevyeoh
post Feb 1 2014, 07:59 PM

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I may not agree with you about the bubble but I agree that by putting down rm5k or rm15k only as down payment, some ppl can easily earn rm200k or maybe more...

But as long as there is buyer... the price shud not go down but probably earn less and more realistic number...


QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Feb 1 2014, 03:37 PM)
U also worker.. haizz.. investment can.. dun go so far 200k nett profit.. come on how to justify.. this more like hitting toto or jackpot
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kevyeoh
post Feb 1 2014, 11:56 PM

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Thanks! I read something about this as well...

I dont understand why other countries cant do the same as Malaysia? Is there any pros and cons between using foreign reserves vs raising interest rates?

Just trying to understand why other countries prefer not to use foreign reserve and vice versa for Malaysia...

QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Feb 1 2014, 11:16 PM)
RM drop bcoz of foreign investors dumping Msian stock, bonds and currency (RM). 'Hot money' as they are known.
Especially on the bond side, interest rate should rise. Hence OPR, BLR, KLIBOR should rise in tandem. Theoretically, this give burden to borrowers with higher monthly installment and squeeze them to dump their property.... price drop.

However, Pn Zeti maintain OPR. Meaning they have the foreign reserves to buy back the bonds to maintain the rates. Hence BLR will maintain and property will be fine. BNM probably focus more on bond buying that RM because it's link to lending rate thus business, properties etc that are on loan will not be badly affected. That's why RM decreases in value. However, in currency war the objective is to have weaker currency to improve export. On the bad side, inflation will affect the Rakyat.

Other emerging markets are feeling the pressure on hot money leaving their countries, Argentina, South Africa, India, Indonesia etc... had increase rate.
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kevyeoh
post Feb 2 2014, 12:03 AM

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Ok... I agree that in some cases there will be joint buyer... but that also means there is no bubble yet because still can afford? I mean end of the day even if it is joint purchase there wont be any loan repayment problem....

Also... I always have this question and maybe discussed before.... I think bank not so stupid... as long as bank can approve the loan... whether it is low end or high end flipper... as long as bank approve means no problem... it doesnt make sense a bank can blindly approve loan to someone who possibly cant pay in future...


What do you think of this? If we continue to have new buyer with bank approved loans.... what bubble are we talking about? Dont compare to US...I think our banks more diligent than US bank... smile.gif and furthermore after US subprime crisis... I think bank will learn from experiences and prevent this from happening...

QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Feb 1 2014, 09:24 PM)
Provided that ur figure is within affordability limits..  price up to 700k above is upper middle clasd di.. as discussed 10k nett joint... nowadays no joint cant buy...u see the market u target what class are those and who? Agent basic 2.5 k.. with commision can reach 10k geh but how many and steady bo?

U agree or not.. there is already an answers to it.. the arguement of increase in salary.. yearly already being addrrssed in detail as we spoke...
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kevyeoh
post Feb 2 2014, 01:29 AM

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U try to give many worst case scenario...
I try to provide positive points la ok?

What if the flippers continue to flip... u say if reach 1mil then left a small pool?

What if actually those who flipped earlier already earn 250k or 300k and they actually have that cushion to absorb it? Think about it... smile.gif I am not creating a scenario... this is a real life example I see... started with 250k property and slowly flipped and going higher until 1mil property.... u forgot this pool of ppl?



QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Feb 2 2014, 12:45 AM)
Our banks safeguards.. I doubt.. u see car loan sector.. aren't they d same bank..? Is it that hard to get loan?

Think again even joint applicant of 10k nett will need to squeeze whatever they have to service d loan.. for 35 years... look at those bank officer.. are they interested in safeguarding it or his own commission.. u know what I m saying.. any agent will know.. like valuation report case if valuation cant get 90% what you do? Pay differential sum? Or pay the valuer? Bank relying on valuer is to safeguards their ass.. coz wen audit report come u have valuer report(even distorted) to justify.. anything wrong sue valuer..

how many have 10k nett joined? Those who achieved this yes there are but they senior post di.. along the 35 years dunno how many time interest fluctuated di.. marriage.. cars.. children expenses.. cars.. insurances..

ur salary increase will forever not enough to counter the price hike..  you are not naive to believe so many qualify the loan subsequently able to repay? Right... bank computing 60 percent or even 70 percent salary to service loan got logic or reasonable ( investors flippers not taking loan to maximum i.e 35 years and 70 or 60% loan).. this is just on assumption that the investors/flipper ccris is a clean slate one

U need to differentiate the difference between qualification to take up a loan and ability to repay.. loan repayment comes monthly.. jobs can be loss.. no promotion.. change jobs.. and Malaysian tends to use more than less.. some example like lets say a MNC company take you to fill their manager post, you may pass the 1st interview, but the performance and ability to cope with the work is another thing together (thought i believe many uses the backdoor to get employment i.e ppl introduce and got friend inside)

Computing 60 % for loan repayment leaving you 40 % for credit card.. food.. room rental(most flippers does ad their new prop are for sale).. phones.. and some form of contingencies.. u see enough? Thus CNY itself surely spend more maa.. and upon you take this loan, there are 35 time CNY..coming

the trend I notice is only newly completed houses landed or high rise shall have that boost of price from 450k to 750k (taking echo hill as exmp) many others also same.. as it is still new and modern design... when it is tenanted or vacant for few years.. it loses out even prime location.. after that initial boost.. it is impossible for another boost.. like from 750k to 1.05 million (2 years exactly same margin like previous 450k boost).. can this happen or Wat or "doable" at the height 750k buyers are suffocating 1.05 m.. I already told you by 2015 if this is the trend ur pool left with upper middle class income and rich)

and if you hold enough bank loan repayment you will make a lost as calculated.. and this time affordability cuts deep... i think if flip sumore.. you also wont be able to buy..
those project tainted with location issue will surely even worst.. malaysian has never departed from Location location location.

and my personal opinion, Bank negara has implemented the measures too slow, resulting property price to reach beyond safe.. pocket bursting in outskirt areas will trigger the total bursting.. coz the market sentiments floats around and comes around...
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kevyeoh
post Feb 2 2014, 10:25 AM

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Hi HuiChyr,

Thanks for your detailed explanation. If what I understand from you, looks like Malaysia is doing the right thing. Keep the currency low and generate more exports... then use the money to buy bonds and let this continue for a while...

Then no need to up the interest rate and probably help the local economy by generating more exports...

But on the hindsight, currency may drop further? Is there like a tipping point until then when Malaysia needs to raise the interest rate? Cuz if currency continues to drop.. import will be more costly and then we may end up spending more and cause more outflow of money as well right?


QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Feb 2 2014, 01:37 AM)
Pros & Cons .... hmmmm ?
It really depends on your CURRENT economic situation and the central banks objectives. The noble objective is to have economic stability so business can run as usual.

Using foreign reserves:
The main purpose of foreign reserve is to support own currency. Msia and other emerging countries learnt their lesson during the Asian Eco Crisis. Thus, BNM using it now for that purpose is correct... imo.

As for the other countries.... maybe their foreign reserves are not strong OR there is no perceived bubble in their economy.... I'm just guessing. This deeply depends on their export capability. If your export is good, your foreign currencies holding is more. So weaker currency improves export which translate to improve foreign reserves. BNM may let RM be low for awhile in order to replenish the foreign reserves required to purchase their bonds.

Using Interest Rate:
Increase interest rates helps to bring back hot money into their economy hence raise their currencies. It's like Bank A give 5% in FD while Bank B give 3%.... ppl will deposit their money in Bank A. So in this sense, we are looking at countries. However, this have side effects.

Raising interest rate will also slows down economy. Businesses may hire less or opt for VSS if the financial obligation is too high. Since 2008 subprime crisis, interest rate has become impotent tool to balance the economy. Quantitative Easing (QE) by USA also make it really difficult. Printing money (QE) flood the world with cheap money (low interest rate), inflating bubbles in every sector of investment vehicle. Top 3 economies in the world are doing that .... USA, CHIna & Japan. China is different that they peg Reminbi lower to USD.

Central banks need to play a balance game with a correct interest rate. But with boom and bust in economy, this is getting harder to dampen the swings. However, I believe BNM is prudent. They kept BLR at 6.x% for sometime. However, banks were lending out BLR - 2.x% giving an effective rate of 4.x%. This is due to QE earlier mentioned. Competition with cheap money. BNM is coming out with new framework for housing loans. Base Lending RAte (BLR) means BASE or the lowest rate. Banks broke that rule.....  icon_idea.gif

That's why economist with Austrian and Minsky background cry foul when Fed Reserve (USA) started QE. They expected FED to increase interest rate instead.  rclxub.gif
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kevyeoh
post Feb 3 2014, 10:50 PM

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i have to agree with you on your point with regards to 3% yield + capital appreciation...

to me...if i can get 3% yield and then on top of that capital appreciation...it is definitely way better than FD already... smile.gif

so at minimum, if i can get a 3% yield for a property...that is good enough....at minimum...

QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Feb 3 2014, 09:39 PM)
The yield is taken from leverage assets. So a 3% yield is quite good and after take into account the capital appreciation, the return will be higher. Of course i am going to try and increase the yield by increasing the rental as well.
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kevyeoh
post Feb 5 2014, 09:37 AM

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Call me a slow learner or blurcase...

But read from the Star business today that QE started around 2008 and at the same time we see property boom...

If QE from US stops or getting less... will property be directly correlate with QE?

Looks like yes to me.... so another point to support that property will not go down but rather grow at slower pace ?


kevyeoh
post Feb 5 2014, 04:52 PM

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went out for a drink with friends today...the mood is BBB and sure win... one guy even commented that for sure price won't come down and definitely go up... so as of today, it is still very bullish mood...

which means, there's still buyer out there to continue the bullish trend of property price... sometimes no need facts, just see the market sentiment...if it's still good...then it will still be OK... smile.gif

even condo price now reaching minimum 600k and some already reached 1mil...really got people buy...there's really a lot of rich people in malaysia...fuuh...
kevyeoh
post Feb 5 2014, 05:22 PM

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600k seems to be within affordable reach...not sure about 1mil though...
blush.gif blush.gif

QUOTE(prody @ Feb 5 2014, 05:06 PM)
It's good to hear there is at least 1 person willing to buy left.  tongue.gif
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kevyeoh
post Feb 5 2014, 07:40 PM

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719sf (1+1R,2B) : RM488k – RM600k
920sf (2+1R+2B) : RM600k – RM750k

http://www.iproperty.com.my/propertylistin...sidence-forsale

for the 920sf, if sell around 600k, i think consider OK...
not sure why so many discussion about this property...

this posting is very recent...but dunno why the range can be quite big..eg. 719sf can be from 488k to 600k...huh? same psf the price fluctuation so big?


QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Feb 5 2014, 05:30 PM)
Amamya maluri..
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kevyeoh
post Feb 6 2014, 03:52 PM

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this is exactly what it feels like when you purchase your 1st property for own stay...

on paper...wah...gain 500k or 300k or whatever amount...but end of the day...you can't spend the money also...it's all just paper...

unless you decide to sell your property and downgrade to a smaller ones...and get to spend the extra cash lor...then you can feel it already....
but then how many of us actually do it this way? sell and downgrade? hehe...


QUOTE(yugimudo @ Feb 6 2014, 11:10 AM)
I maybe wrong but my point is like this:

1. You bought a flat at RM30k for own stay
2. At today price, it shoot up to RM80k

Now I ask you, Are you gaining anything? In "value", yes your property has increase tremendously but as long you are not using it as collateral or refinancing, it will only look nice on paper.

I know this because my parents flat which I am staying has increase in price but in no way we feel richer or helping us in economic matters.
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kevyeoh
post Feb 6 2014, 05:25 PM

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on contrary...my friends still optimistic about prop market lei....somemore openly can declare the price will never drop...fuuh...
smile.gif

QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Feb 6 2014, 04:21 PM)
Every crash or event is different from the past, otherwise it will be so obvious that it will never start.  But what I knew is that, be it business or investment, when many people are so attracted to it, the chances of winning is diminishing.

I managed to talk to a few agent relatives and friends during cny, and they are not too optimistic about the prop market.  There is a shift in mindsets. Last couple of years, these people are a lot more bullish.
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kevyeoh
post Feb 7 2014, 12:53 AM

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fact 5, i disagree... i think middle working class still got holding power...
fact 6 we are all property owners right? me, you and everyone else... smile.gif i mean you're just stating the obvious fact...so this fact is meaningless imho...

fact 4, probably true..i noticed a lot of empty car parks for most of the condos...but it has been this way for many years and i don't see any issue based on this... smile.gif


QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Feb 6 2014, 10:42 PM)
I am partyless I did not registered my self to any party yet but I voted and twice dis time kajang..

ananya is not the only one just a mere ficticious example or I can say just mere association of convienence... pertama residency.. lido residency..connought avenue.. iskandar project.. and etc..

fact 1 government removal of DIBS
fact 2 RPGT increase to 30 percent
fact 3 1 million restriction to foreigner especially singapore and china
fact 4 many units high rise and landed are sold but vacant
fact 5 many of the owners are middle working class and holding powet is zero
fact 6 many agents/ property owners here commenting


So I did not say it is bubbling.. it is the GOVERNMENT say is as least what I derived from their action..
u want to say based on your facts ppl should opt to buy buy buy mode?

I consider I reply both post in 1.. fact 7.. KLCC view is totally blocked when sunvelocity completed.. check out the works and level sunvelo has whether it blocks or notvif you insist to buy..
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kevyeoh
post Feb 7 2014, 01:04 AM

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fact 5, assuming you are true that it is working class...they still do have holding power... what if it's a couple of working class...means 2 person paying for 1 Amaya unit (your favorite place, hehe), i still think no problem and can cover the loan... 1 person takes care about RM330k, can la...no issue...

QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Feb 7 2014, 01:00 AM)
fact 5 disagree,
means means admitting many flippers are working class, but got holding power?
admitting working class itself shows the holding power is weak holding prop long enough will cut deep

fact 4 probably true? have u seen high rise during thhe night? like amanya? pertama residency? connought avenue compared it to angkasa condo, miharja condo or even miharja apartment or even government PPR? why.. coz many working class cannot afford high rise which is inflated.. right?
have you check TTDI groove kajang? semenyih like taman tasik semenyih/ kota warisan? bukit beruntung? puncak saujana kaajgn? jade hills? kajang 2?

i dunno...how true?

fact 1 to 3 government is promoting BBB mode so that everyone can own a property right?

fact 6 of course.. this property bubble thread.. and yet many agents here trying to convince that the market is good so buy before late.. come on lahh.. u agents can afford 750k property bo? i didnt know since when agent are earning more than doctors, lawyers, engineers in MNC come on lahhh
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kevyeoh
post Feb 7 2014, 09:14 AM

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If one agent can sell a unit of 1mil property a month... the commission received more than enough to afford 750k liao looo...


QUOTE(mroys@lyn @ Feb 7 2014, 08:42 AM)
You really don't know about agent's income.
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kevyeoh
post Feb 8 2014, 12:49 AM

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i think new condo project has a better chance of capital appreciation...and also condo potentially can rent out with better price...

i will recommend to go for new...cuz if second hand...sometimes if it's cheap..you factor in the reno cost...eventually it adds up...

just my opinion...
unless you can get a good bargain for 2nd hand property...

QUOTE(ranger21 @ Feb 7 2014, 11:45 PM)
so if i would like to get my first property, which one should i go for ? new project condo? new landed or secondhand landed? blink.gif  blink.gif  blink.gif
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kevyeoh
post Feb 8 2014, 12:37 PM

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Hmm... how and where you come out with 50% number?

QUOTE(sampool @ Feb 8 2014, 11:34 AM)
you cannot rent your gold, but u can rent your house. hmm.gif

if your house nobody wanted to rent even 50% below rental value... that mean ur location consider bubble liao...
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kevyeoh
post Feb 8 2014, 12:46 PM

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Ok... I did not state clearly... when I mention new doesnt mean brand new... assume if got a condo just 1 to 3 years old vs a condo already 10 years old... I think the newer ones easier to rent and sell... so at least for short term it helps to cover lo....

Put urself as buyer or someone gonna rent... do you want an old place or new ones?

My bad... I did not mean totally new and virgin units... but as long within 1 to 3 years still consider very new...

QUOTE(all blacks @ Feb 8 2014, 02:34 AM)
Tat bold part seems to be the main issue here.. Juz imagine in the next 2 years, there's 5 condos coming up in one particular area.. So when u buy new, u will be like "new condo project has a better chance of capital appreciation...and also condo potentially can rent out with a better price".. than after 6 months, pops up another new condo completed, so wat happen to urs? does the logic still applies, how about after 2 years when all 5 are completed?

If this trend keeps going on, rental yield goes down.. new prop keeps going up, but 2nd market gone dry up soon n also ppl gone be stuck with the instalments as the rental wouldn't be able to cover especially when u own more than 2 unless holding power is gud.. Like stated by brother bear, the higher the price goes the smaller the buyers pool gets so wat r the chances of selling the prop at the higher price..

By the way I juz gt an update from an agent earlier, Emerald@Kinrara is valuated at 1.05mil, but asking price is 1.15mil  doh.gif , wonder wat r the owners smoking over there... one intermediate unit wic is facing junction going for 980K  because of Feng sui issue so hard to sell...

Expecting BBB to slow down bt nt over till gst kicks in.. but thanks to our PM n the geng, top tax bracket ppl will end up paying less tax with the new structure whistling.gif
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kevyeoh
post Feb 8 2014, 02:23 PM

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aiyooo....why always compare US property vs Malaysia property? different right?
i read that in US back then...it is so easy for anyone ah chong, ahmad and muthu to apply loan...hence the subprime property issue...

but in Malaysia, it won't reach this level as bank now tightening the approval for loan...

correct?
no?

QUOTE(jolokia @ Feb 8 2014, 02:03 PM)
Exactly few years back when one said gold investment is a unsustainable speculation all those gold speculators would come in defend saying gold is the most trust worthy investment,  better to hold gold then cash,  one can even pawn gold everywhere to cash in, country reserved r in gold, since ancient times people keep gold, yada2
Now all start saying gold not reliable,  cannot rent out like property,  gold investment gain r paper gain,  bla3

The fact is Oil/Gold/Property/Stock speculation r all the same, it will become bubble & will become unsustainable.

They said even if properties price fall one still have property on hand,  don't forget almost everyone bought properties thru loan,  properties r belong to bank so long as one had not complete their loan tenure,  if properties price fall below the loan or initial purchase price, what do one have ? Remember during US crisis house price fall below loan value ? meaning paying a loan greater than what one can get by selling their house,

Gold need no maintenance but properties do, gold no wear & tear but house do, gold can be sold in days or hour but properties need months,  gold will not age but house will,  gold do not depends on location but house do, if govt decide build some undesirable things like highway,  bridge, incerarator,  high tension cable towel near your house the value will dropped substantiality,  may even have problem disposing it.

The conclusion is no such thing as safe investment/speculation, oil & gold have it day & so will properties,  current senario shows end of road for properties speculation/investment/flipping or whatever one like to name it, lived in denied or how ever u like, u still at losing end.
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kevyeoh
post Feb 8 2014, 03:45 PM

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exactly..you mentioned urself disqualified...therefore it is different than in US when these folks are not disqualified...
right?

QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 8 2014, 03:00 PM)
Traditionally; those profited in the beginning of bull run will reinvest more, and opportunists/flippers only enter the market after bull run has started for a few years and price has risen a substantial amount. History has show, both group will end up worst off at the end.
How do we classify those borrowers (on dibs, zero entry cost or 5% downpayment, 35 years, etc) who are now disqualified?
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