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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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Martinis
post Feb 6 2014, 04:24 PM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Feb 6 2014, 04:20 PM)
Sigh .... do I even care to explain.... nevermind la ... u r correct.  shocking.gif
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Don't simply give up like that lah. I hope you can really understand. Marked to market is the only way to logically value assets and companies.
Martinis
post Feb 6 2014, 04:58 PM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Feb 6 2014, 04:50 PM)
Hahaha ... ok la ...

Look "marked to market" is the most riskiest way to value assets and companies .... bcoz market can be wrong.
Warren Buffet talks abt intrinsic value (don ask me how to calculate this, i read his book and I'm still confuse).
So there is intrinsic value to ALL assets bcoz MARKET can experience over exuberance  rclxm9.gif  or downright depression  cry.gif  . It's sentiment based ... fear or greed.

But we diverted from original discussion: Bill Gates is a different class and type of investor. And it's gonna be long discussion on this topic for next time. But if you read Robert Kiyosaki's book on Cashflow u'd understand.  nod.gif
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Riskiest way? Most logical way I think. If holding properties worth 2m prior to crash and its value dropped to 1m, your net worth dropped by 1m. That does not mean that you were worth nothing prior to the crash. You were worth 2m. That is marked to market.

Bill gates or not: net worth is calculated the same way.
Martinis
post Feb 6 2014, 05:11 PM

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QUOTE(yugimudo @ Feb 6 2014, 05:02 PM)
No lar got also. I just read here, "if for your own stay just buy at any price"
Ok, I will use different kind of asset to explain, commodities. Similar like properties, commodities also has up and down. The particular commodities I will use is silver.

There is a movement in graph last 2 year, where it looks like it will skyrocketed. The unfortunate thing is that I was buying when the graph is going up. Now, silver spots is way lower than the time where I enter silver investment.

I buy at spot RM100/oz
Today Feb 2014, silver spot is RM67. I bought 13 oz.

Do I lose money? In a way yes, my silver is priced less. But, if Im holding it, I am also holding from losing.

If in Feb 2015, silver spot soar to RM120/oz, will I have gains? In a way yes, my silver now priced more. But, if Im holding it, I am also holding from gaining.

P/S: But silver is not like gold and properties. At least gold can be "pawn"ed. You can not refinance using silver and Im not using loan to buy the silver. But it definitely show you that paper gain and lose is nothing until you transact the goods.
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What you have shown using silver is the same in properties and both of the are priced using "marked to market" method. Your brokers are using this method to determine whether you have margin call. Whether you acknowledge it as a gain or loss or not does not matter, your net worth(your account with the broker too) fluctuates when prices of silver/props fluctuate.

Give you an example. If you had bought some listed companies worth 100k that subsequently went bust but you did not sell, do you think your net worth is 100k still? or zero?
Martinis
post Feb 6 2014, 07:32 PM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Feb 6 2014, 06:50 PM)
YES ... ppl out there are practising mark to market ... I know.... banks, hedge funds, news all talk abt CURRENT market values. They said market capitalization of a public listed companies ...etc etc.

But as an investor, don't get tricked by it.  shakehead.gif
However, our discussion started with your comment as below
This comment doesn't make sense bcoz B.Gates and W.Buffet are different kind of investors.
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What do you mean don't get tricked by it? There is no trick. Nobody is tricking anybody. You can practise your own prudence by discounting the market value but the fact remains MTM is the only logical valuation.

On Bill Gates and old Warren, they are still the same kind of investors. Just that they add a few zeros only.
Martinis
post Feb 6 2014, 10:40 PM

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QUOTE(yugimudo @ Feb 6 2014, 07:59 PM)
Ok.
We mean that the mark to market method is not wrong but only bank or official accountancy use it. But if you are aiming to be wealthy, it is not good to use the method for your benchmark. If you want to use mark to market, then by definition my net worth is half million due to fact that I am insured for my death. It doesnt matter if Im not dead because on paper the company already promised to pay me upon death.

Does this mean Im rich? Heck no. Can I cash out? No. Similiar to own stay home. Even the value increase, it doesnt matter coz you cant sell it.
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Aiyo, u don't have half million NOW cos you still alive. This is not marked to market. Insurance company has a contingent liability to u. The liability is contingent on your death. Understand? You cannot be alive and have 500k. But you can have a house worth 500k and stay in it OR you can sell the house and take 500k and put into FD and rent.

Maybe your house/condo is too small and there is nothing to downgrade to. Imagine you own a bungalow worth 5mil. Can you sell it and move to a smaller condo when you retire? You are saying it does not matter whether one's house is bungalow or small condo because it is your house BUT you can sell your house! why not? Even if u CANNOT sell your house, your house value is also part of your net worth.


Martinis
post Feb 7 2014, 08:31 AM

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QUOTE(yugimudo @ Feb 7 2014, 07:28 AM)
That is what Im saying all along. You only gain when you sell. It doesnt matter how many increase in price or value, as long as you are not selling, there will be no gain or profit. If the said bungalow is bought at 4.5m and i use another 0.5m for renovation, selling it off at 5m will means that there is no gain even on paper it increase 0.5m in value.

What I want to show you is that method is useful to calculate capital gain but not cashflow. To retire, it is better to aim for cashflow rather than gain.

I use this last example, if this cant explain it then It just mean that im not a good explainer:

U bought land 1 at rm20k.
The price increase to 100k. But as long as you are not selling, you are not profiting.

U bought land 2 at 35k, u add 30k loan to develop into plantation. Positive cashflow +rm500
The price fall to 25k as there are many nearby seller selling cheaply. Are u at lost?

Actually land 1 is called capital gain investment. While land 2 is your cashflow investment. Both are what properties investor are looking. Basically, land 1 is good for flipper, while land 2 is good for passive income.

But if you buy a house for own stay, you cant use the above principal unless you are willing to move out and downgrade.
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If you have capital gain, it is not necessary for you to sell it off to say that there is a gain. Capital gain can be accumulated over years or decades. If you have only one property and that is your house, then, yes, it does not make much difference to you as you need a place to stay. But when you have more properties in future, then you will realise what I say is true. Even if you have only 1 property and that is your house but your house is a bungalow, it can still make a difference because you can downgrade.

I think you are one of those brainwashed by Kiyosaki that only positive cash flow assets are assets. Well, he is only partly right. wink.gif This is my last post on the matter. I hope you can digest what I have explained.

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