Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

Bump Topic Topic Closed RSS Feed
4 Pages < 1 2 3 4 >Bottom

Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+

 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

views
     
gspirit01
post Feb 2 2014, 10:06 AM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
Gong xi fa cai to all.

After reading the recent posts, some people said that the prop prices are still going up. But those subsales that I track are actually coming down. Although something like 790k to 750k or 678k to 650k are not much, they r in fact coming down. R we in different area of the countries ?
gspirit01
post Feb 2 2014, 10:24 AM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Feb 2 2014, 01:37 AM)
Pros & Cons .... hmmmm ?
It really depends on your CURRENT economic situation and the central banks objectives. The noble objective is to have economic stability so business can run as usual.

Using foreign reserves:
The main purpose of foreign reserve is to support own currency. Msia and other emerging countries learnt their lesson during the Asian Eco Crisis. Thus, BNM using it now for that purpose is correct... imo.

As for the other countries.... maybe their foreign reserves are not strong OR there is no perceived bubble in their economy.... I'm just guessing. This deeply depends on their export capability. If your export is good, your foreign currencies holding is more. So weaker currency improves export which translate to improve foreign reserves. BNM may let RM be low for awhile in order to replenish the foreign reserves required to purchase their bonds.

Using Interest Rate:
Increase interest rates helps to bring back hot money into their economy hence raise their currencies. It's like Bank A give 5% in FD while Bank B give 3%.... ppl will deposit their money in Bank A. So in this sense, we are looking at countries. However, this have side effects.

Raising interest rate will also slows down economy. Businesses may hire less or opt for VSS if the financial obligation is too high. Since 2008 subprime crisis, interest rate has become impotent tool to balance the economy. Quantitative Easing (QE) by USA also make it really difficult. Printing money (QE) flood the world with cheap money (low interest rate), inflating bubbles in every sector of investment vehicle. Top 3 economies in the world are doing that .... USA, CHIna & Japan. China is different that they peg Reminbi lower to USD.

Central banks need to play a balance game with a correct interest rate. But with boom and bust in economy, this is getting harder to dampen the swings. However, I believe BNM is prudent. They kept BLR at 6.x% for sometime. However, banks were lending out BLR - 2.x% giving an effective rate of 4.x%. This is due to QE earlier mentioned. Competition with cheap money. BNM is coming out with new framework for housing loans. Base Lending RAte (BLR) means BASE or the lowest rate. Banks broke that rule.....  icon_idea.gif

That's why economist with Austrian and Minsky background cry foul when Fed Reserve (USA) started QE. They expected FED to increase interest rate instead.  rclxub.gif
*
These are the fundamentals of currencies controls. My view is that it is a lot more complicated than the fundamentals in Malaysia case. Some of the extra variables are political needs, local product competitiveness, cost of manufacturing, local fund like epf and others investment abroad, foreign borrowings, etc. I still feel that the bnm a bit late in raising interest rate.
gspirit01
post Feb 2 2014, 11:28 AM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(CK15 @ Feb 2 2014, 10:59 AM)
for the price drop above, may i know u r refering to asking price or actual transaction price? if asking price, any luck to get the last/previous transaction price?
*
These r asking price. I think it can be nego further. As these r my tracked prop for price trends, I won't disturb them to distort the prices.
gspirit01
post Feb 2 2014, 03:59 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(Rabel @ Feb 2 2014, 02:12 PM)
More negative. So wat is the impact u predict ? Demand ? price ? Up ? Down or stagnant?
The radio news is demand slow, price won't drop coz average holding power still very strong.
So, will u let go property with cut margin or hold property till meet ur expectation price ?
*
Price not dropping because sellers don't want/won't be able to drop price or have strong holding power ? Bearbear was saying previously that some people won't sell lower even until foreclosure. Bearbear, did I remember it correctly ?
gspirit01
post Feb 2 2014, 04:22 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Feb 2 2014, 04:13 PM)
Yes.. anytime before foreclosure.. they still can sell off by private treaty oh miao.. they will hang till this moment..

those with good holding power but got lousy prop will hold till end.. after foreclosure done.. auction done.. they will pay any balance.. coz if they holding long theyknow they are making loss.. dat y when the time comes and forsee cant sell. They dun pay and letit auction off
*
Thanks bearbear. I can relate to this mentality as I too was one of these kind of people when it comes to share market. sad.gif
gspirit01
post Feb 4 2014, 05:33 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(Martinis @ Feb 4 2014, 03:47 PM)
Who says property price increase no good? It creates wealth effect which spillover to consumer spending. Malaysia having problem with low wages and low property prices for too long. Stucked in middle income. You see now minimum wages implemented and also trying to boost wages level. Increasing property prices also force owners to charge higher rentals. In the long run, only businesess with higher value creatuion can survive. Win..win..win!

Do you know how many Singaporeans waiting to retire in Malaysia? Malaysia is ridiculously CHEAP!
*
You really sound like my developer friends.
gspirit01
post Feb 6 2014, 11:23 AM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Feb 6 2014, 06:56 AM)
Luckily accountants of banks in malaysia don't think and apply your accounting principal. Otherwise, the borrowers all kena top up frequently.

If you are the accountant of a bank, I think no people will take loan from your bank  tongue.gif

From "mark-to-market" to "bank a seliing debts to bank b", I won't surprise if you come up with something else later  doh.gif
*
First, I hv to qualify myself that I am not an accountant, altho I hv to deal with accounting every year.

For normal cases, I think cherroy mod, hikari are absolutely correct. Why mess with the account and entries here and there when it is not necessary.

For extreme case, when bank is going under, chances of those servicing the loans are in doubt, and "white knight" or shark is coming into the scene, tikaram's theory may hold some truths. When massive write downs are required, prop prices may take a bitting. This is just my thought, no technical basis.
gspirit01
post Feb 6 2014, 04:04 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Feb 6 2014, 02:28 PM)
Just to recap, the initial claim by bro tikaram was "mark-to-market" accounting for bank loans. Meaning bank have to ask for "margin call" (something like that) when property value decrease. However, banks do not apply such "mark-to-market" principal. Eg car loans where car depreciate faster than repayment. Banks even provide debenture free unsecured loans to business and personal. How to "mark-to-market" since there is no security ? Different set of accounting policy for housing loan ?  tongue.gif

It was only later the "bank a bank b" arguments surface and the whole argument was diverted. Just like politicians creating issues to divert attention  notworthy.gif
*
I hv never heard of "margin call" for prop loan!
gspirit01
post Feb 6 2014, 04:08 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Feb 6 2014, 03:52 PM)
this is exactly what it feels like when you purchase your 1st property for own stay...

on paper...wah...gain 500k or 300k or whatever amount...but end of the day...you can't spend the money also...it's all just paper...

unless you decide to sell your property and downgrade to a smaller ones...and get to spend the extra cash lor...then you can feel it already....
but then how many of us actually do it this way? sell and downgrade? hehe...
*
That is y I said that homeowner never drive the prop price! Investors, flippers, developers, agents call the shot in the market. New homeowners are the preys for the hunt.
gspirit01
post Feb 6 2014, 04:21 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Feb 6 2014, 04:08 PM)
tongue.gif  tongue.gif  tongue.gif

Like the hardcore DDD camp here claims, although malaysian property market history never experienced 50% property market crash, it doesn't mean it will not happen  thumbup.gif
*
Every crash or event is different from the past, otherwise it will be so obvious that it will never start. But what I knew is that, be it business or investment, when many people are so attracted to it, the chances of winning is diminishing.

I managed to talk to a few agent relatives and friends during cny, and they are not too optimistic about the prop market. There is a shift in mindsets. Last couple of years, these people are a lot more bullish.
gspirit01
post Feb 6 2014, 04:25 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Feb 6 2014, 04:14 PM)
Agreed.  rclxms.gif
Home owners also not stupid lor . ... they see property overpriced also they won't touch la. 
Don't think that home owners are not born with brain ma..... nod.gif
*
Yeah, sometimes when one thought that the other people are so stupid, the jokes go back to them !

But in many cases, new homeowners are forced into this. E.g., "don't marry my daughter if you dun hv your own house!"

This post has been edited by gspirit01: Feb 6 2014, 04:30 PM
gspirit01
post Feb 6 2014, 08:01 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(jolokia @ Feb 6 2014, 05:00 PM)
Then tell ur potential in law to keep their daughter long2 like house later sure price increased...lol

Just because getting married doesn't make one making "un wise" decision & become water fish to pay whatever seller ask for, in current market senario can press those seller kao2.
*
Luckily I dun hv to go thru this. This is what I hv heard somewhere before. But girls are like prop, gems are snapped up fast and long term investment from young is highly encouraged.


QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 6 2014, 05:13 PM)
Probably you haven't live through a recession or didn't have friends were in business.
*
I hv been thru most crashes discussed here. But still hvn't heard of this type of margin call for property loans.

QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Feb 6 2014, 05:25 PM)
on contrary...my friends still optimistic about prop market lei....somemore openly can declare the price will never drop...fuuh...
smile.gif
*
I also hv relatives who r still bullish. They recently bought!
gspirit01
post Feb 7 2014, 09:07 AM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
The benefits that you mentioned many people are getting, make me feel my friends, relatives, customers, staff are all being treated unfairly! Are you sure many are getting these ? In many companies that I work with, only top managements are getting these. These companies include mnc in o&g.


QUOTE(kochin @ Feb 7 2014, 08:40 AM)
bearbear,
it amuses me your countless allegations one after another.
i have reasons to believe you are relatively young. probably late 20's at most?

salary wise, i got no comments as it is pyramid structured. let's just say the top 20% make the most for all occupations including businessmen. applying the top 20% to the entire working population of klang valley would result in quite a number of high networth individuals. not forgetting the minority owners which are working in foreign countries but investing locally.

in jobs, they are plenty which provides transport allowances. please note that transport allowances are not equivalent to milleage claims where the employer expect employee not to claim for reimbursement when they actually travel for work commitments. these allowances can be quite substantial. and i would like to quote in some organisations, these allowances can very well go north of >RM5k. drivers are separate allowances. again, not many might be granted into such great allowances but again 80/20 rules applies. most large organisations would have the top 20% entitled to such benefits and if not middle management might expect transport allowances as well albeit lower payout.

petrol allowances or milleage claims are reimbursement for travel due to work commitments. some offer reimbursement concept while some offer fixed lump sum per month.

so technically, quite a substantial amount of people potential have 'free' or subsidised vehicle due to their employment.

insurance is subjective. good to have of course and you have sized quite a decent amount and i agree with your estimate.

again some employment covers mobile allowances. so much so that some offer comprehensive plans including provisions of a brand new handphone every year including accessories and payment for all charges including data and voice and roaming.

and believe it or not, some companies also offers housing allowances or subsidies. i personally have been employed by 2 organisations that practise this as well to ALL level of staff.
same goes for day care or education as well. some of it offers and some don't.
even sps offers lunch on daily basis, and other IT companies as well are doing the same.

and a shocking relevation. some companies offer all the above simultaneously. some even offer extra retirement scheme or ESOS or holiday incentives among others. heck some comapnies even give out a brand new japanese vehicle during lucky draw!

in short, please broaden your mind.
if you have not able to achieve certain desires, why not take a step back.
find groups of people who are able to and learn how they are able to do it.
learn from the best, do not be dragged down by same group who are not successful (this doesn't mean that you 'dis-friend' your unsuccessful friends).
motivation and hardwork is key.

before all that, faith and believe must come first.
i wish you the very best my friend.
once you find success, others will follow.
*
This post has been edited by gspirit01: Feb 7 2014, 09:09 AM
gspirit01
post Feb 7 2014, 09:47 AM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
Couldn't agree more. Risk and reward comes hand in hand. Hv seen top management being escorted out by securities guard with 1 hour notice. Based on my experience, those with top benefits are less than 5% of all staff.


QUOTE(kohts @ Feb 7 2014, 09:26 AM)
Bosses operational cost involvess your salary. In maximizing profit for shareholders and owners, it is to lower operational cost and be more efficient.
However in avoiding the risk of impacting the business, standard operational employees which require less innovation n following sop need to be managed and one of the way is to allow the employee to belief that they are getting similar renumeration than others, and in such will create general satisfaction. Such employees do not have much risk getting to ask to leave and thus less risk less gain

However the key talent is for the people which really add value to the organization and fully aware of its position and negotation power which will stand out from the rest. They are ready accept challenges and responsibilities and ready to bear the consequences if they fail. In such they will rightfully request justifiable renumeration which is of course much much better than general.

Generally most of our friend and relatives is from general group as they felt more comfortable, nothing wrong with it.
However the few which has the hunger for success can be valuable friends and contacts.
*
gspirit01
post Feb 7 2014, 12:32 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
Just curious what line r u in and how many people r there in your company? There is a thread in lyn somewhere that I read before. Your company is paying you extremely well compared to majority of them.


QUOTE(all blacks @ Feb 7 2014, 12:15 PM)
Well my companies lowest earner is at 7.xK exclusive of 13 month salary, transport allowance n mobile n broadband allowance .. (3-5 years of experience)

But nt all might be earning the same level n also enjoy the same benefits.. I do wonder too how all the fresh grads are buying soho/condo wic is priced at 4xx-700x.. They could barely survive if they start serving their loan but in reality their loan applications still went through with the help of DIBS and also % offer from the developer, so low DP...
Well I would say majority is nt rich n at the same time majority r nt educated as well.. juz look at G servants.. millions of ppl wic earning very less n with a lot of CC/personal loan..
*
gspirit01
post Feb 8 2014, 10:13 AM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
Thanks for bringing out the old poll.

The sentiments has changed quite a bit in one year time!

QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Feb 8 2014, 06:55 AM)
30/8/2012
Will the prop £$¥ in Klang Valley up further? V7, Let's vote / it is Election Time
http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/2488751

8/7/2012
Will the property $ in Malaysia up further? V6, From 2012-2015
http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/2419455

17/4/2012
Are tge property in Malaysia up further? V5
http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/2309948

20/11/2011
Are property prices going to up further? V4
http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/2116133

28/6/2011
Are property prices going to up further? V3
http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/1935875

22/2/2011
Are property prices going to drop? V2 http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/1763572

13/7/2008
Is Property going to drop? Geral property price dsvussion (Financial)
http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/741185

These are the forums where the UUU kicked the DDDs asses. Go so far back back as in 2008....and the dream from DDDs that market will crash goes on and on and on and on...

Thanks to Unidentified Flying Objects.
*
gspirit01
post Feb 10 2014, 09:42 AM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
Media is media. I will take it with a pinch of salt if you read chinese, here is another version with more concrete figures.

http://www.nanyang.com/taxonomy/term/688


gspirit01
post Feb 10 2014, 03:16 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
Well, I was hesitated to share this as I dun really believe in Feng Sui. Since so many are mentioning about feng sui, hv fun with feng sui for Year of Horse!

http://www.bfm.my/2014-01-21-outlook-prope...-the-horse.html
gspirit01
post Feb 10 2014, 07:09 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
QUOTE(TiramisuCoffee @ Feb 10 2014, 06:22 PM)
Happy CNY everyone! So, is the bubble finally bursting?  biggrin.gif

Dunno what happened, since early this year, no agent called me.  hmm.gif Normally, Ah Jee Ah Kau Ah Mao called me up almost every other day. So quiet these days.....Property market dah masuk freezer huh? Personally, I stopped visiting showrooms myself.... cool2.gif 

Oh, I kept coming across acronym like LYN. What's that?
*
Gong xi huat cai!

Bubble not burst yet! But price down a bit for those I track!

Prop analyst report for KL 2013 q4:

Basically in q4, price up 2%, rental down 1.something percent for high ends
Massive vp in 2014 expect to exert downward pressure for both rent and price.
2014 shall be a challenging year for kl prop
The actual effects of cooling measures are unable to be certain.
gspirit01
post Feb 10 2014, 10:45 PM

Enthusiast
*****
Senior Member
773 posts

Joined: Dec 2013
The overall price increase for 2013 was 11% to RM746 per sq. ft, and drop of 2.5% rental to RM3.56 per sq. ft, for KL high ends condo. Although I would like to see it fall, it is my honest nature not to tell lie.

However, I don't know the basis and sample for the data. The report do sound cautious overall for 2014.

QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Feb 10 2014, 08:45 PM)
If one quarter up 2% in price. .. then per annum is 8% on capital appreciation. ... excluding rental income somemore...
Hmm... quite a decent gain anyway... with rental income shud easily achieve more than 10%... not bad in this so called bubble scenario
..
*

4 Pages < 1 2 3 4 >Top
Topic ClosedOptions
 

Change to:
| Lo-Fi Version
0.0719sec    0.33    8 queries    GZIP Disabled
Time is now: 9th December 2025 - 02:27 AM