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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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twincharger07
post Jan 26 2014, 12:12 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 26 2014, 11:57 AM)
Which study and research is better than from the horse's mouth?
The root of subprime crisis was indiscriminate credit extended to otherwise disqualified borrowers. Credit risks of over stretched flippers is indifference.
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subprime mortgages are mortgages that are extended to borrowers who already known for poor repayment pattern, not qualify from mainstream..

in US, they are lending to borrowers who already has existing poor credit rating, poor repayment record.. the risk is even higher.. G.Bush once said, how to own a house when bank dont even lend to this ppl, there is when TDH start borrowing from Freddie Mac and Finnie May which both are non-mainstream lenders..

in bolehland, they really vet through all the credit rating, ensuring even credit card repayment pattern.. if you already have existing poor record, full stop.. Over here at least 1st screening is done... chances of npl is way lesser than how the US did..

there is a difference between over stretch and poor credit record (no able to repay).. as long as you can still repay, you still not get default.. there is a clear definition what SUBPRIME means.. not apa apa pun subprime..

i am still pretty much engaging with bankers from different banks.. since the 70% LTV enforcement, approval rate has been reduced alot and with the current cooling measure.. We manage to pull the plug before it collapse (hopefully).. US and Euro Zone is on a whole different level on lending terms..

This post has been edited by twincharger07: Jan 26 2014, 12:16 PM
twincharger07
post Jan 26 2014, 12:23 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Jan 26 2014, 12:15 PM)
It is much easier to make a decision (to buy) during bullish mkt than mkt downturn

Recently met a banker purchaser looking for own stay (bout 40++), I show him -
1) Property A - 950K (launching price 2011), now 1.60 mil
Banker likes but says "Over inflated price, why shd I pay so much for the seller to earn, no rooms for appreciation"

2) Property B - 910K -1.15 m (launching price 2010), now 1.03 mil - 1.15 mil
Banker likes but says "why the price so slow, seems cannot appreciate one, why the owner want to sell this price??"
I answer "If you feel 1.03 mil is too low, I can always quote you 1.3 mil to make you feel better"

I ask why not buy fr developer, he says "I like finished product especially new VP house, can check the quality"

When one decides not to buy, he always hv excuses, real case for sharing
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true.. there is always market for secondary houses which dominates the overall housing transaction..
what ppl say about only buying from primary market is not true.. as far as for residential market, only 20% of housing transaction is from primary market, 80% are actually subsales..
twincharger07
post Jan 26 2014, 01:47 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 26 2014, 12:27 PM)
Before bnm stringent requirements, how many flippers secured loan otherwise they would not qualified now? How do you classify these loan?
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IMHO, there is a difference between how much you can loan and how well you can repay..

What bank and government had done last few years is limiting the amont of borrowing to reduce speculation and keeping the property market at a healthier level, ensure the general public still can afford houses

However, what has never changed is how bank evaluate your repayment behaviour.. Limiting the amount of loan is a precaution measure..

There is a cost being a subprime borrower.. If you are labeled as subprime borrower, you are usually charged with higher interest rate and getting these loan from subprime lenders and not prime lender..

you mayb subprimer after getting loan from prime lender due to difficulty in repaying, loss of income.. but you definately wont get prime loan when you are labeled as subprimer from the beginning..

What so catastrophic in US is that they even start giving loan to subprimer even they already know they are subprimer at the beginning.. they are the jialat among the jialat...

so, you really need to understand how US subprime mortgage work and how they label subprimers.. how lending to subprimers collapsing the financial and housing industry.. are we the same..

We may have borrowers turning into subprimers but they definitely wont be able to get more loans once they screw up their credit profile.. US has been lending to subprimers for many years and even increase the number of subprime lending after the dotcom bust..

This post has been edited by twincharger07: Jan 26 2014, 02:11 PM
twincharger07
post Jan 26 2014, 02:43 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 26 2014, 02:37 PM)
Naked truth will be revealed when crunch time come.
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is not about arguing the truth or what is the outcome.. is about how you label terms such as subprime and associate it to our local context.. we might have our own version of financial n housing collapse, probably of different causes and different to other countries..
twincharger07
post Jan 26 2014, 04:31 PM

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QUOTE(manapergi @ Jan 26 2014, 04:21 PM)
To be exact, can't buy instead of won't buy because bank as listed company have to answer auditor and minor shareholders.

The company have no ground to answer paying over the odds eg 30-50% over market value.

fyi banks have strict criteria when selecting branch location, of the 100 unit shoplot in an area less than 10% can be considered for branch opening. And those holding these units rather rent to bank since guaranteed rental while property price appreciate during the 5yr tenure. Most of the time bank will keep on renew tenure which mean he need not pay installment whole loan tenure.

even if bank don't renew they can easily rent out because of the outstanding location among other units.
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Yes.. each year hav to justify to investment committee on the usage of capex and opex.. businesses these days try to own as least as possible, turning to opex so that they can expand more..

To justify for rapid expansion, opex make more sense, concentrate on their respective core business..

Digi earn 4bil revenue and 1bil clean profit.. thats 25% of revenue .. they did this by renting premises..

Big business want to do it fast and make it big, not by get cash tied down with too much assets. No wonder not all ppl hav entrepreneur spirit..

This post has been edited by twincharger07: Jan 26 2014, 04:39 PM
twincharger07
post Jan 26 2014, 09:30 PM

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just sharing interesting article

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-p...-091004258.html

key: 87% of msian work in spore has no intention to b sporean.. they are just interested in spore wages
56% of sporean which to migrate.. majority preffer msia..
twincharger07
post Jan 27 2014, 06:46 PM

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QUOTE(kohts @ Jan 27 2014, 06:45 PM)
Survey conducted by sin chew today indicates top prefer investment prefer in 2014 is property. In fact cash value rm has drop much against foreign currency and trend seems continue. Inflation sure to rise further reducing cash value and other type of investment need to be monitor closely, with global economy warming up.

Keeping cash strategy is it a good move.......mmmmmmmm?
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can try to open oversea account n keep your $$ there.. but not HSBC for now.. hmm.gif
twincharger07
post Jan 27 2014, 07:11 PM

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QUOTE(kohts @ Jan 27 2014, 06:59 PM)
Have try this before but preciously admin charge n expensive exchange rate set a disadvantage unecessary. Now i try placing into funds with exposure in the develop countries. I dont felt confident in waiting for price drop nor up as both ways have clear disadvantage
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in general for spore, 5k sgd minimum.. fell below that will impose 2sgd fee monthly..
the drawback is interest rate only 0.xx.. hmm.gif
twincharger07
post Jan 27 2014, 07:32 PM

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QUOTE(kohts @ Jan 27 2014, 07:21 PM)
Unless you fly to singapore n withdraw cash and then go to exchanger, direct tt cash to myr account us expensive aside the low interest. Else airticket and time is a cost also
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lol.. can buat direct TT la.. y fly here fly there..
twincharger07
post Jan 28 2014, 06:55 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 28 2014, 06:36 PM)
maybe u want to reconsider.. i think i overlook something di when i post..

taking back the same example:

Buying a 850k DSL (previously bought 750K now likely to be echo hill case) after 10 years..... u di pay 420k installment (3.5k X 12 X10 years).. plus 75k deposits... legal fees stamp duty 25k upon selling and your progit of 100k lets say...and ur loan sum is 650k.. let us assume rental for DSL is RM1,000.00-RM1,800.00.. increase monthly...we take a median of RM1,500.00 per month (this works out to be RM180K for 10 years)

so 650k -420k-(75k-25k) -100k profit.. bro assuming interest rates does not flactuate at all.. you still owe the bank RM30K.. let say (provided 10 years you have tenant secure tenant) you get RM180K for 10 years. after minus RM30k you owe to the bank... you still earn 150k.. but think again the 75 k is actually the deposit you park in and 25 k is actually the legal fees payable, these are your own money) 100k total.. therefore, even with rental covers.. you only earn 80k for 10 years (assuming you really have tenant). that is like 8 k per year and that is RM666.00 per month.. rental in average..
now lets adjust to 950k.. total profit of 200k..
based on the above you earn 80k for 100k profit, but for 200k profit, you earn around 180k for 10 years per year 18k? RM1,500.00 per month.. this is reasonable but the risk of no one buying a DSL outskirt worth 950k (another extra 30k [being extra 20k deposit and stamp duties payable])

so you see.. this will then reduced to the arguements of whether the prop price will climb over the million mark.. WILL IT or is it REASONABLE TO EXPECT SO? holding long term really not viable.. and outskirt prop really runs the risk.. coz the starting price for echo hill is expected to be at least 650k... COZ phase 1 ( 450k +legal fees+ minimum expected profit landed 100K) =580K? subsales? izzit logic to say? new phase 650k at least? so developer sales no problem as entry is low.. your flipped price really going to be stagnant for quite sometime coz you are selling future price..  if i bought the DSL from you for 750k.. can i expect like you around 3 years to appreciate to another 300k just like you.. dat makes the figure 1.05 million DSL outskirt? UNLIKELY RIGHT.. this was never a phenomena in previous years before 2010, things was great.. just this few years.. the price are crazy and unsustainable..

the real market buyers are workers middle class and upper middle..
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So what should we do?
twincharger07
post Jan 28 2014, 07:45 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 28 2014, 07:35 PM)
Maybe u got a bettet figure? Name it.. I thought you are the insisted 100k 10 years..

then again.. 750k (originally 450k) upon completion landed 2 years.. so another 10 years will be 1.2 million plus 750k.. around 2 million?... logic mas?

Lets not go far moment u purchase it for 750k.. after 3 years 1 million.. u want to buy? Loan of 4.5k per month for 35 years
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Do you know that a lot of ppl goreng house not playing solo but combine together?.. 3 ppl goreng 1 house, 1 person 1k or 1.5k installment, you think they got no holding power meh..

There are always subsale buyers in the market. . As mention before, 2ndary market still dominate the prop market..

This post has been edited by twincharger07: Jan 28 2014, 07:49 PM
twincharger07
post Jan 28 2014, 07:47 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Jan 28 2014, 07:20 PM)
Good question n hope got good answer
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I dont expect much.. just wanna see wat responds we will get..

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