Are we allowed to post a few forum/web links for reading purpose prior to market open in this thread?

my wish is market doesn't like it, then my 80-85 target may have hope.

why not? what is your concern?

I think it doing ok.. just as market expected.

I sold the 90 Puts for this week but I think it will hold above 90 by Friday.
I don't mind owning more AAPL it it drops to 90.

Anyway, onto other... something brewing China FTSE Xinhua.
My 2x leverage of FXI (XPP) now at 62.. it's time for me to ring the register here.
It's been a great ride for 3 months from the mid 40s.
I'll buy the pull back again.

China FTSE Xinhua, I'm really not sure if it's a breakout or a short term top. If it's a breakout, another 10% upside for the index is possible. If it's a temporary top, I'd expect a 5-8% pull back. So, you are at the pull back side?

I think there will be a minor pull back here but I got to ring the cash register after more than 35% gain.

It's a narrow escape for my AAPL call in this case.

Just to share a few infos regarding options play on this stock (for thos who haven't or about to trade options)

1) The Implied Volatility plays a major part in options pricing. Using the CBOE calculator, one can easily work out that:
a) Stock Price = $97.66
b) Strike Price = 100
c) Expiration Date = Aug 16th , 2014
d) Days to Expiration = 23
e) Volatility = 32% (from OX quote)

The option value should be $2.19 ( or at least $2.00). However, given the stock just announced its earning yesterday AMC, the actual option value as of 10:50 am USTZ was $1.09 (WTFBBQ). Thus, replacing the actual option price on the calculator, you get an IV of 20.84% (farking low). That literally cut down the option value by 50%.

2) Yesterday when I bought the options, it was $0.87 in the early hours (before noon that is). It closed at $1.03 with a handsome $3k. However, due to the in-line+downside guidance the stock traded as low as $93.81 after market hours. I did post my own view on the stock's earnings (@today 5:20am USTZ post#1320: AAPL's ER doesn't look bad at all, even though the co issues downside guidance for Q4 rev,$37-40bln vs $40.46 and gross margin 37-38% vs 37.5%. If major market especially small caps take the lead, stock could bounced off from AH's low $93.81. Else could see serious bounce off play from its 50dma 90.92. Oh lord, bless my call options) and stock traded as high as $95.88 (@8:00am USTZ) .

3) Despite the stock opened at $95.61 (+$0.91), the actual option value dropped from $1.03 to $0.55 (ffs!!). I have to admit that it was one of the lousiest feeling I have encountered over the pass few weeks. $20600 dropped to $11000 (excluding commisions which is $400). Had I purchased weekly options which expired this Friday, even with the stock rallied to intraday high of $97.88, I would still loose money base on the actual implied volatily.

4) Lesson learnt: It's always better to trade pre/post earnings than holding options into earnings on big stocks. However, for smaller stock (market cap<3B) options with longer expiration should be priority in order to profit even from a loosing position if you are into earning play. (see post #1276 on WWW options)

5) One more thing: I closed my AAPL position two candles after it hit intraday high @$97.88 (5min timeframe). Reason: On 3rd candle, it opened at $97.45 and continued to rally up till $97.60 and I decided to close the position due to lower volume and /ES, /NQ, /TF loosing fuel. Always closed a call position when the stock is rallying rather than when it's dropping and killing the IV+options value at the same time, vice versa.

Enjoy the screenshot:

Not so pro, i normally trade post earnings. Ride the wave for small profit

Btw why not u use strangle/straddle? AAPL price movement not wide enuf to cover the second position? Coz I know this position need to have big move at one side to bring in profit. Or u're just pretty confident with your earnings analysis

Trading flat for quite some time now

Thanks for the sharing Bro J, just started to paper trade options, still have lots to learn, your guides are priceless! Appreciate the sharing even though you don't have to.

This post has been edited by cynachen: Jul 23 2014, 11:54 PM

Accumulating T-mobile US (TMUS) at $31.5xx now.
Target: $33.5xx within 15 days.

Swing trading. Zero knowledge on T-mobile fundamental...

Yup, it's the first ER post 7-1 stock split, hence I have no confidence it will either breakup/down. I do believe the stock will rise due to the ongoing product development especially the iWatch which I think no other brand in this world will beat it's design. However, having said that, I did a huge mistake in this case by assuming the post-ER Implied Volatility is within 10%, ie: it was 40% yesterday and "with proper statistical study by at least 5 years timeframe it should be 30% today". The assumption was correct, what displayed on the options quote screen from TOS and OX was perfectly match to an extend of 30.4% when the market opened; but the actual value displayed on the option pricing, was not. It was totally a farkedup trade I would say, absolutely horrible. There isn't any option pricing model out there which will provide this kinda result. I am still searching for the right answer atm.


Whilst there are many things to explore, what I have just shared was a lesson I paid about 8 years ago that cost me a RM100k loss due to the fact that I was introduced to options by a con-man guru who didn't care about Implied Volatilty (IV). The terminology itself, just save you USD3000 from a four-day course which didn't mention about IV. And here's my tips for you: IV's value varies by seconds , ignore those shallow definition from investopedia or textbooks written by people who didn't trade the real market.

This post has been edited by Brother J: Jul 24 2014, 01:45 AM

Seems to me like AAPL iWatch hit the market at the right time too bad samsung or is the the 'apple' magic that win how ppl view smart watch

For cases like this (overnight trade), will the option price be affected as much if:

1- buy a more DITM weekly option?
2- buy a longer term option?

Not familiar since i've only day trade options so far.

xiaomi had a rather simple solution for some similar functions, not a watch though.



Attached thumbnail(s)

AAPL holders.....HUAT ah
FB holder.....even more Huat AHHHH!!!!

FB latest quarter smashes earnings again.....let see how high it can go now

This post has been edited by jerrychoo2004: Jul 24 2014, 09:05 AM

xiaomi releasing mi4 that looks like iphone and now with miband head-on challenge with apple
Personally prefer the design of the specialized fitness band more but no point comparing when it comes at that price... $13

managed to scalp on AAPL PUT

put put put more more, i want 85.

TMUS is on my watch list but not on buy list yet. I'll be watching this to see if it can touch 200ma and bounce off.
Good luck on your trade!

85 think fundamentally susah abit...near term....

http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/viewer?action=v...60&xbrl_type=v#

Cash generator in cash flow statement...cash hoarder in balance sheet....

Not this friday (for $85)..lots of big money hold up AAPL despite "just as expected" earnings and weaker iPad sales for Q2.

Still holding my (short) $90 put from two weeks ago. I'll be keeping the premium and will sell the following two-three weeks $91 and $92 put (it keeps rising because of the moving averages). Until it closed below what I've sold, I won't be assigned AAPL stocks. So, I'll continue to wait...