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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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icemanfx
post Dec 24 2013, 10:48 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 24 2013, 10:11 AM)
Although we don't like it, but the flippers could make much more in % wise. With DIBS and zero entry cost, flippers could buy a studio for RM300k. Their cost is maybe RM8k (stamp duty for S&P and loan). Upon VP, they flip it for RM400k. Their profit is RM100k. Their capital is RM8k. Their margin is hence 1250%. In effect, they use RM8k to turn it into RM100k  ohmy.gif

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Investment bankers, illicit drug dealers, hedge fund managers, etc are all in the wrong business, should learn from from sifu n flippers here.
icemanfx
post Dec 24 2013, 09:27 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 24 2013, 09:06 PM)
Seems like a lot of people will be hit by johor scheme.
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According to JPPH, as of 2013 Q3;

Number of service apartment, condo/apartment in JB area;
In stock: 28,178 unit
In supply include under construction: 29,186
Planned (i.e. approved): 22,478

It took over 20 years to build up the current stock level of 28,178 unit and it is going to take less than 7 years to add 180% thumbup.gif rclxms.gif

icemanfx
post Dec 25 2013, 11:31 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Dec 25 2013, 08:52 AM)
it is not logical anymore.. high rise which is obviously oversupply and if they cant sell it for half a million and above planning to rent the said property out for 2k-2.5 k so that can cover their loans.. u tell me ppl if really fork out that 2k-2.5 k why not they just purchase it so that they are paying something which they will be owing rather than to ease these flippers...

shop houses now 4 storey lately was a hit selling at RM2M by developers and then 5 M of course by high end flippers come one.. even with 2 M how much are u guys servicing the loan easily 9K pe rmonth.. of course again u will plan to rent it out at least 10k-15 k.

what kind of business you are operating haizzz.. most of the time even in mature area like puchong, shamelin, maluri, taman miharja, Klcc areas, plaza pekeliling and many unlisted needless to say.. only the ground floor is being occupied the 2, 3 4 floors are vacant.. arent you making loss if the are vacant.. the promises and targets propounded by developers and agents are mere tactics to hold you in to purchase the properties.. they themselves also don want to buy haizzz

shopping malls as well cant u guys survey so many shopping malls in KL viva mall, cheras central, 1 shamelin, southgate, spark desa petaling, carrefour, tesco midah, jusco malauri, leisuremall, jusco bandar mahkota, jusco cheras selatan (both of less that 5 kilometers away), mines, one south, and many more all also no tenant/shops open one go and see.. i still havent include the shopping malls inside Kl.. haizz where got good economy survey oversupply mannn
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Realistic assessment. However for people with vested interest, will have their vision only on positive outcome even if unrealistic.
icemanfx
post Dec 28 2013, 10:13 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Dec 28 2013, 09:56 PM)
Q4 2013 has been a very slow period for property market after the Budget 2014 announcement, but I see signs of market stirring in last few weeks.  By end of Q1 2014, the buying activity should be quite hot again if there are no new cooling measures announced.  Q2 2014 onward the market should even be hotter as buyers enter the market to avoid the 6% GST in 2015.
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Since this is a hot seller market, why not include 6% price rise in 2014 Q1?


icemanfx
post Dec 29 2013, 07:25 AM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Dec 29 2013, 12:17 AM)
Firstly, I think property prices will likely correct itself to the level that normal people could maybe afford them. There is still demand for props in this country, just not at this kind of high prices. At what level of correction, well we will have to wait and see.
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"Corrrect itself to the level that normal people could maybe afford them" could be looking at over 40% pricr drop.

QUOTE(tat3179 @ Dec 29 2013, 12:17 AM)
Secondly, unlike US banks, our banks did not lend out money for mortgages recklessly, the US banks lent out billions to NINJA borrowers. Our banks are much more strict and BNM did a good job controlling them for the past few years.
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QUOTE(HELLO HELLO @ Dec 29 2013, 01:33 AM)
Also see many young people buy 700k+ prop with only 3-5k pm net income. N they try to fake the side income add in become 7-8k pm. Hope within 3 years they manage to increase their "real" salary before the project VP.. If not.. Cant sell off in time or rent out....it soon become as auction unit after 3 years.
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If this is not subprime, what is? rclxub.gif

QUOTE(BTimes @ Dec 29 2013, 12:06 AM)
I very much agree with you.  Malaysia's properties are very cheap comparatively.  The Chinese developers are paying record prices this year for Malaysia land.
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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Dec 29 2013, 12:17 AM)
Thirdly, yes there is demand from overseas for our props. Problem would be the anti foreigner actions taken by the government to stop prices from rising further, like the 1 million bar. Foreigners don't really invest that much here. Around 500k or so the foreigners are interested.
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According to JPPH; numbers of apartment, service apartments and condo under construction or approved in JB is 180% of existing total number.
If cheap price is the reason for buying, why not consider Muadzam shah?

QUOTE(HELLO HELLO @ Dec 29 2013, 01:33 AM)
Open a Sdn Bhd company made fake report...set n pay high income tax with company profit up 1mil. Use it as a prove to loan more money from bank. Sapu all the kl/pj new launch landed prop more than 100 units. When VP sell half of it with double and triple the price. Already made huge profit. Now Remain half sell high n slow to wait for big fish or desperately need a landed prop. This Penang guy did it 2 -3 years ago. Now rich like hell driving beamer n have a hot trophy gf. n become a small player developer buy land join venture built factory.

And another case is a guy pakat with dato n a Malay politician which have a seat in parliment...  Open company n using his malay politician partner name to sapu all the landed/condo projects in big quantity with bumi discount. And sell off after VP with 50%+ higher or double the price... Now the 3 guys also rich like no tomorrow.
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Very likely they have invested even more after their earlier success and more vulnerable to market mood change. Unless one knows the inside story, it sound like proxy for money laundry.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 29 2013, 07:51 AM
icemanfx
post Dec 29 2013, 08:00 AM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Dec 28 2013, 10:28 PM)
At a few sales office I visited, the sales managers told me that their material prices are expected to go up in 2014, and they are planning to increase the price slightly while cutting down the size slightly too in their 2014 launches.

It is logical to expect that 2H 2014 launches will be more expensive than 1H 2014 launch, as more material/fuel/labour/tax costs kick in.  By Q4 2014, I expect most of the GST cost would have factored into the price.
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Gold punters were saying the same thing, gold price will only go up as long as QE is in place.


QUOTE(BTimes @ Dec 28 2013, 10:28 PM)
I didn't see a lot of launches in Q4 2013 and this could have contributed to the lower market activity.  If I were buying for own stay, this few months in early next year is the best period to look around for the best deal.
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In theory, reduced supply in 2013 Q4 should add pressure for price increase in 2014.
icemanfx
post Dec 30 2013, 04:19 PM

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QUOTE(Zres @ Dec 30 2013, 03:24 PM)
Fresh grads in HK is really 8-10K la....average...

do ground survey u will know...

even oversea grad cant get more then 10K...
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Statutory Minimum Wage in HK is HK$30/hour or about HK$6000/month. Fresh grad in HK is marginally better than cleaners and servers?

icemanfx
post Dec 30 2013, 04:36 PM

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QUOTE(New Klang @ Dec 30 2013, 04:30 PM)
Seems like the discussion is fast becoming out of topic.

Is this overdose of information from search engines?

The question is where are the signs of bubble?

Please close this thread if discussions are irrelevant.
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1. When obasans, students and agents were buying.

2. Price going up is a sure bet.

3. Gen Y borrowed to the max to buy.

4. Every flippers believe if they can't flip, rental can cover installment.

5. Low or zero entry cost.


icemanfx
post Dec 30 2013, 09:00 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 30 2013, 08:47 PM)
The word "flipper" is badly hated in this thread.
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Flipper ala speculator by definition doesn't contribute any value or work to the economy except price escalation. Flipper is not hated but doesn't deserve any sympathy when they failed.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 30 2013, 09:02 PM
icemanfx
post Dec 30 2013, 11:37 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Dec 30 2013, 10:41 PM)
With millions in pocket, not so soon la. laugh.gif

Worst is stagnant lo. Collecting rental to wait for the next round is not gonna make anyone a loser.  Will it??? When the next round comes around, many ll start to say 早知
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If rental is enough to cover loan installments, with low entry cost, potential tenants would have also bought. Only new migrants need to rent. Hence vast majority of these units will be left vacant e.g. mk.
icemanfx
post Dec 30 2013, 11:46 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 30 2013, 10:27 PM)
We must wait for the economy to collapse, or BNM increase the interest rate to >3% in order to see dead chicken everywhere on the street.
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After U.S QE is tapered, interest rate is almost certain will return to pre-2008 level i.e. effective rate is over 3% higher than current.

icemanfx
post Dec 31 2013, 12:00 AM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Dec 30 2013, 11:49 PM)
In the eye of many investors, flippers r not bringing any gd to prop market when average joes oso can buy n flip which due to dibs the past few yrs.

With bnm stepping in to make it darn hard for them to enter the market, it onli take shorter time than u n I can predict to wipe out most prop investor wannabe. And when the true purchasing power take place, rental market ll eventually improve if the price stay. Which mean, stil expensive n many stil not able to enter to buy for own stay but rent. Theoretically la.
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The issue is not about new flippers entering the market but those flippers already invested hoping rental will be enough to cover loan repayment.
icemanfx
post Dec 31 2013, 12:07 AM

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How much reserves and holding power does a typical gen Y flipper have? Given their life style and expectation, believe hardly enough to cover 3 months of loan repayment without going for cc cash advance.
icemanfx
post Dec 31 2013, 05:43 AM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Dec 31 2013, 12:44 AM)
Being a flipper is not wrong.
U just need to be smart to get out when market is too hot ... cool2.gif
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Those flippers who have profited believe they are donald trump in asia and unlikely to get out or give up.
icemanfx
post Dec 31 2013, 06:05 AM

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Property is illiquid, won't have price crash like stocks or commodities but likely to have price decline over a prolonged period of time.
icemanfx
post Dec 31 2013, 12:16 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 31 2013, 11:32 AM)
We discuss this previously. Foreigners' buying accounted 16% of kv prop buying last year.
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Whole of kv or just klcc area? Most foreigners units will be tenanted, will there be enough tenants to fulfill all flippers vacant units?


icemanfx
post Dec 31 2013, 12:22 PM

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QUOTE(CK15 @ Dec 31 2013, 12:13 PM)
seremban now hot spot as well.
went back home town (small town) last month, over heard many peoples are aming their bullets (PAMA bullets as well) for properties ard seremban town. reason is the price still cheaper than small town, KL properties price/risk is higher for them...
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Don't forget to BUY BUY BUY at Muadzam Shah before price goes UP, UP, UP! thumbup.gif rclxms.gif

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 31 2013, 12:23 PM
icemanfx
post Dec 31 2013, 12:26 PM

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QUOTE(CK15 @ Dec 31 2013, 10:40 AM)
+1

Gd times got biz closed shop. Bad times got biz expending..
diff timing diff strategy.. apply to biz and property investment.
one needs to review portfolios from time to time to mitigate risk...
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If life is as simple, there should be more than 5% of adults are worth over a million.

icemanfx
post Dec 31 2013, 04:28 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 31 2013, 03:23 PM)
I will bet with you they have no guts to do that  tongue.gif
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Just like those punters bet on gold not long ago.
icemanfx
post Dec 31 2013, 06:31 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 31 2013, 02:58 PM)
The trend is too mild. It is just correlation to the increase in population and transaction. What I need is a big bump up in the trend to be able to see flippers suffer
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The show hasn't begin, you ain't see nothing yet.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 31 2013, 06:49 PM

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