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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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gspirit01
post Dec 12 2013, 09:54 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 12 2013, 08:05 AM)
Thanks for Sharing.

“Thailand and Malaysia economies are fine at this point in time (later ?),” S&P financial rating services’ managing director and lead analytical manager Ritesh Maheshwari said yesterday.

“But an unfavourable global economic event (QE Tapering ?) could affect Malaysia adversely, and this is why we have been highlighting in our reports that Thailand and Malaysia (Only these two only ? then we must be in bad shape)face risks,” he said in a teleconference on Asia-Pacific’s outlook for 2014.“


I think when those who are supposed to be in a very positive camp, like investors who just bought, agents, etc. are feeling pessimistic about the market, it is very very wrong now.

This post has been edited by gspirit01: Dec 12 2013, 09:55 AM
gspirit01
post Dec 12 2013, 10:01 AM

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QUOTE(Kevin Chan @ Dec 12 2013, 09:47 AM)
2 million buck condo ???  ohmy.gif
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Taugh property to get loan.

I saw three bungalow projects, with CF and VP issued long ago, left vacant for a long time (at least over one year) already. The price tags is >2 mils. Out of 30 - 40 units completed, only 1 was occupied. One of these projects is in shah alam, the paint started to fade already.
gspirit01
post Dec 12 2013, 10:38 AM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Dec 12 2013, 09:58 AM)
[attachmentid=3765074]

Saw this in today's The Star.

I just cannot believe what it says, at 10% of the price 20 years ago! Typo?

Or is the situation really that bad?

Cheerio.
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Actually this could be complicated. Only the insider will know. It may not be developer's fault sometimes. I would guess that the developer might hv spent lots of money developing the infra as well. RM40 and RM0.4 sounds different alot. But, how about RM0.0 vs RM0.4 ?
gspirit01
post Dec 12 2013, 11:17 AM

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BBB = buy buy buy
UUU = up up up
gspirit01
post Dec 12 2013, 11:22 AM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Dec 12 2013, 11:17 AM)
Since many wont choose tis type of prop for investment, guess the competition oso not there at all. So for those who dun mind to pour in the cash and wait for long, usually ll b rewarded handsomely in another way. Of cos the margin gain might best b on par with some flippers flipping 20 units of some small units studio under dibs upon vp. But lower risk for the bungalow holder imho. Cos he can service the loan. Guess if flippers fail in servicing loan upon vp without buyers, doomed liao. laugh.gif
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So it comes back to my previous calculations. After vp, it takes +10% to break even after interest, rpgt, fees, etc. if hold for 1 yr. Price not up 10%, not rented = lose money.
gspirit01
post Dec 12 2013, 11:41 AM

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QUOTE(TiramisuCoffee @ Dec 12 2013, 11:36 AM)
I wished the government had imposed at least a RM2m price tag for foreign investors. Many klang valley condo already cost RM1m.

hmm.gif Wonder if there is a limit to how many properties a foreign investor can own in Malaysia.
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Just curious, do u work as an agent ?
gspirit01
post Dec 12 2013, 01:49 PM

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QUOTE(TiramisuCoffee @ Dec 12 2013, 01:38 PM)
If like that, isn't it better to invest in share market? Tax free some more.... hmm.gif
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Frankly speaking, if hold for long term, share is better than property. At least there is no interest pressure. But to get a good counter at this point with good return might be tough.
gspirit01
post Dec 12 2013, 02:15 PM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ Dec 12 2013, 01:51 PM)
Blue chips also cannot ?
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I won't touch for now.
gspirit01
post Dec 12 2013, 02:17 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Dec 12 2013, 01:51 PM)
For buying shares you need to:
1) Have a plan
2) Stick to the plan whatever happens

I also paid my tuition fees already. smile.gif
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Welcome to the gang! My tuition fee was very expensive laugh.gif
gspirit01
post Dec 12 2013, 02:18 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Dec 12 2013, 01:53 PM)
Most probably no actual profit, 9 years of inflation will take a big bite out of it.
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Not only the inflation, the interest actually kills.
gspirit01
post Dec 12 2013, 02:22 PM

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QUOTE(Kevin Chan @ Dec 12 2013, 02:16 PM)
stop-lost don't work during a free fall of stock. trading happen when your price match the asking price.

lets say you stop lost at RM10 while the panic market lelong at RM9, your trade will never happen since they need to match all the RM9 stock first before doing your RM10 stock ... then people lelong at RM8.

you need to be in the market to actively change your price ... and of course your broker/remiser need to be able to key it in fast enough ... .. .

profit taking target would work, since your price will be lowest during an up trend ... you be bust stopping the sell and waiting for better price.

market going either way, its not good for your blood pressure.  vmad.gif
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I hv read abt a master trader's story, real one. The pressure and attention required is not for ordinary people. If u want to do it part time, u will be the lowest of their food chain.
gspirit01
post Dec 12 2013, 02:40 PM

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QUOTE(TiramisuCoffee @ Dec 12 2013, 02:30 PM)
What about penny stocks?
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These r what I call TOTO stock. It is for fun only. And prody's plan works wonder here.
gspirit01
post Dec 12 2013, 04:15 PM

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Foreigner buying makes up to 16% of KL properties transactions in 2012. Most are from china and japan. Singapore rank no 3. With 1 million cap, anybody think it will come down ?

Government's strategy is to avoid foreigner competing with locals in under 1 million segment. Will they still come ?

Meaning that most transaction, especially condo, will be btw malaysians in 2013. Got buyer ah ?
gspirit01
post Dec 12 2013, 05:28 PM

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QUOTE(TiramisuCoffee @ Dec 12 2013, 05:04 PM)
hi gspirit01,
Why is it called Toto stock? 5 sen go up 1 sen oledi 20% profit. Not bad wooh... more than good fun, if we can tembak correctly? Any good stock to recommend, huh?  wink.gif
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It is cheap and chances of wining is low. If win, can win big. This is y i call TOTO.
gspirit01
post Dec 12 2013, 05:32 PM

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QUOTE(TiramisuCoffee @ Dec 12 2013, 04:55 PM)

piak piak her. -  means what that means, huh? tongue.gif
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Lol. Luckily u didn't ask me.

Just curious, what is ur gender and age ?
gspirit01
post Dec 12 2013, 10:29 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 12 2013, 09:14 PM)
Thanks for sharing. U r resourceful!
gspirit01
post Dec 13 2013, 06:47 AM

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QUOTE(Llchieng @ Dec 13 2013, 03:14 AM)
100% agreed with prody boss always stick to urs plan & cut loss if the price move below urs cut loss point.
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Can trading stock in malaysia make money ? If not bcos of I switched to foreign markets, I would not touch stock anymore.

So far I hv not seen a "pure trader" made meaningful amount in Malaysia. Anybody know of any?
gspirit01
post Dec 13 2013, 10:31 AM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Dec 13 2013, 10:15 AM)
Interesting.

Saw a news report that house sales in Ipoh has dropped by 50% compared to last year, as I have mentioned earlier.

This seems to support what I learnt earlier on economy leading indicator, real estate then follow by stock market.

Signs of property heading south but stock market is still heading north (maybe to the lagging effect). So exercise some caution for those who want to get into the share market, especially the first timers (I guess the old timers can hand onto the good shares and ride out the unknown future).

My 2 cents.
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It is the calm before storm.

Interest articles, with a lot of similarity.

http://profit.ndtv.com/news/your-money/art...to-burst-371745
gspirit01
post Dec 13 2013, 11:19 AM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Dec 13 2013, 10:53 AM)
Interesting. Thanks.

2 things I keep in mind when I read articles:
* my biased mind filter - if I expect the bubble to burst, then when I read an article saying that, I will say to myself, see, this expert is supporting my expectation. And the dangerous thing is to ignore/don't believe articles which say the opposite. So beware of this natural human logic biased thinking.
* not everything they report is the truth, numbers they quoted etc. The data they quoted are from 2nd or 3rd parties which may be just opinion.

Nonetheless, good and useful to keep monitoring the development. Thanks.

P/S I like India's share index name - Sensex! Wah! Any state here starting with "S" for their motor plate number? One day they will reach SEX . . . . numbers! But I think they will not issue plates with SEX ....
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Very true. It is the common problem with many rational people, me included. Listen to this and listen to that. Sometimes, both are reasonable. No matter what, decision has to be made to join which camp, to take the next action.

Now u mention it, sensex does sound nice. Stock market=senses of sex ? Wah!
gspirit01
post Dec 13 2013, 08:11 PM

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I hv a relative visiting from hk. She confirm that hong kong prop has indeed come down. Some are even 10-20%. Next, singapore, then Malaysia ?

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