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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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SUSjolokia
post Jan 7 2014, 09:57 AM

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QUOTE(lilzany @ Jan 7 2014, 09:15 AM)
French big entity is full of fail. I know some of the big brands are French but brands are not equal to department stores sorry.
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Carrefour also need to made a exit & end up in Japanese hand AEON. .lol

Asian r now the king in everything, from electronic, car, even sapu all these kwailou properties in Europe, Australia, North America, soon we have Spanish labour & French maid ..wakakaka

This post has been edited by jolokia: Jan 7 2014, 09:58 AM
SUSjolokia
post Jan 7 2014, 06:29 PM

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QUOTE(Wiredx @ Jan 7 2014, 05:43 PM)
There is a shortage - of affordable housing. There is an oversupply of high-priced condos. Building more high end condos will not solve the shortage.
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Affordable house is tax payer responsibility ever since it been set at 400K by PR1MA. shakehead.gif

QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 7 2014, 06:06 PM)
Looking at all those threads and replies, i realised that i previously way undersestimated the "demands" for prop investment.  I was right, with many people here, that the price spikes were due to investment speculation. However, I never realised until recently that how ignorant these so called investors are on the prop investment knowledge. Everywhere I see,

"Wah, invest prop make so much lah!"
"This one can invest or not ?"
"Prop price can go up only nia"
"This one sure go up"

Come on lah, at least learn how to evaluate lah. If can't calculate loan interest, principal remains, rental yield, how can one evaluate ? Many masters already stopped buying or buy only when there is a good deal. All those half cooked can't wait to jump in.    sweat.gif
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You r not suppose to use your brain when flipping property, just blindly buy & blindly flip, "sure" make money one (someday). thumbup.gif

After calculating recent property price & rental yield sure you wouldn't buy. rolleyes.gif

I just saw a 2 storey terrace in Cheras asking for 380-400K with rental expected below RM 1000/month. doh.gif

When i read people is trying to refinance their newly bought house to cash in to flip another house, i know Bubble burst shouldn't be too long. whistling.gif

This post has been edited by jolokia: Jan 7 2014, 06:39 PM
SUSjolokia
post Jan 7 2014, 09:31 PM

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QUOTE(Wiredx @ Jan 7 2014, 08:18 PM)
Yeah it would be worth something if those flats were fitted with some top end fittings instead of generic stuff
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500-600sf 2 room 1 bathroom selling 400K, paying commercial rate electric & water, named service residence, sharing parking lot with shopper, located at the edge of KL surrounding by illegal factory & recycle centre, bad air quality, noisy enviroment, madness jam during peak hour.

Some how I feel that is a cheap apartment on top of shop lot which used to cost less than 120K 5-6 years ago.
SUSjolokia
post Jan 8 2014, 12:23 PM

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QUOTE(Maneki-neko @ Jan 8 2014, 09:14 AM)
Hah? How come so low? I bought my current condo below 150k with current rental income of 1.6k a month (fully furnished) Guess condo drives higher rental income than landed property  whistling.gif
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The house cost less than 140K initially, should I say mini double storey 2+1 room 15'X55' public transport need long walk.

So potential of renting is low I guess, working couples usually prefer condo for security reasons.
SUSjolokia
post Jan 9 2014, 08:29 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 9 2014, 08:00 AM)
TS, a developer used your theory in another way.  Sry, it is mandarin.

http://www.nanyang.com/node/590257?tid=691

根据一项统计显示,大马的房价,世界排名第99位,但租金却是第9位。
有关统计显示,我国每年投资租金回报率介于5%至6%、土地年收益约4%至6%,普遍高于贷款利率,两者相加,投资回酬达9%至12%,足以以房养贷。
尽管大马的房价自2009年3月全球金融危机在亚洲告终以来,普通上涨40%,然而根据世界银行和联合国人居中心,针对大马每户居民的平均房价与年收入比做出的“房价收入比”显示,马来西亚是4,还是处于合理健康的房价水平。
房价收入比指的是平均房价和平均年收入的对比。以此指标计算,大马是本区域其中最低的,甚至比国民人均所得远较大马低很多的曼谷,马尼拉、雅加达还低。
联合国人居中心过去针对数十个经济发展不同的主要城市研究得出,合理房价的房价收入比应该是介于3至6之间;世行专家则认为4至6之间;也即是说,国际上公认、居民可以承受的住房价格,也即是房价的合理价格水平,应该是相当于3至6年的平均收入。
因此,按此标准,当房价收入比超过5的时候,这个城市的房屋购买力极低;若超过6的话,则被国际公认为属于房地产泡沫区。
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Assume KL average income 5K/month aka 60K/annum, so 60K X 6 years = 360 K most if not all the new launching in KL already exceed that amount so it's a Bubble without a doubt. .lol

This post has been edited by jolokia: Jan 9 2014, 08:31 AM
SUSjolokia
post Jan 9 2014, 06:59 PM

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When inflation hit people have less disposable income, which mean they spend less, when people spend less business suffered, when business & consumers have less $$ they stop thing like properties flipping, many would try to reduce their holding, when most do not have much $$ either they would only buy when the price is really low or just ignore any offer, less people interested in buying property mean price will eventually drop.

Those who says property price would go up during high inflation probably missed their basic economy class or think fellow forum members in LYF PT r only hold PMR cert at best.

Already said a dozen times property is not a stand alone sector, when other sectors suffering don't expect a shinning property market.

SUSjolokia
post Jan 10 2014, 09:22 AM

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QUOTE(cody99 @ Jan 10 2014, 08:50 AM)
I agree with BTimes.
If you look at MYR currency trend to rest of the world... It is saying Central Bank generating money faster then ever.

On the other hand; Developer is another type of business try to maximized thier investment like what all business does.

Back to the topic: it boilds down to supply and demand
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I on the other hand totally disagree with BTimes, our currency is way better than 1998 which hit RM 4 per dollars before controlled at RM 3.8 which then never showed any sudden surge in properties nor goods price at large, our currency dropped as much as 50% in year yet we fdid not see property price jump the same.
BTimes is just trying to justify real estate price surge not cause by artificiality demand by flippers rather genuine demand & rising cost, I am sure he would have says the same for artificial oil demand in 2008 which eventually proven to be nothing but a hoax.
BTimes intention is to create white terror on current buyer to give up their stand & pay the over inflated price for properties so that his bunch of flippers can escape the current dead trap & avoid losses or bankruptcy.
Only ignorant buyer would not see the properties market heat is all over, previous flipper r waiting for their judgement day.
Those who doesn't need a house urgently & wait for BTimes & his bunch to see how strong ia their holding power during turbulence year of 2014-2015 people with strong holding power usually just keep quiet & wait rather than brouhaha "faster buy before price go up again" ...lol only desperado do that. .rofl
SUSjolokia
post Jan 10 2014, 05:16 PM

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QUOTE(coolster @ Jan 10 2014, 04:43 PM)
Hi all,

my recent home loan application from 3 local banks have set that maximum financing this year would be 80%, no more 90%. It is really shocking to me though.

Seems like property bubble burst is coming.
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Coolster,

80% apply to individual case by case or across the board for all borrower ? new or secondary properties ?

I thought when bank is borrowing less meaning only genuine cash strong buyer r eligible, not those zero entry flipper, how come u said bubble burst mari ?
SUSjolokia
post Jan 10 2014, 10:10 PM

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QUOTE(TiramisuCoffee @ Jan 10 2014, 08:19 PM)
Our authority is going to flush out the illegal migrants again....
http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2014...-migrants-expi/

If  to enter into this country is made very, very difficult , there's no need to 'undo' by flushing exercise every year.  hmm.gif

After the flushing, who is going to do jobs no Malaysian wants to touch? I.e. More delays at construction sites. Delays = $ . Property prices cannot afford to fall, actually!   biggrin.gif
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Now economy slow down, construction also slow, time to flush them out, if not they will create crime mah !
I remember seeing those old 70-80s Hong Kong movies where the contractor will phone the immigration after their illegal mainland China workers finish works & asking for pay..lol
1 worker RM 110 smartcard to change from PATI to PADI, imagine 3 millions = 330 millions Huat loh ! brows.gif

This post has been edited by jolokia: Jan 10 2014, 10:18 PM
SUSjolokia
post Jan 11 2014, 04:22 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Jan 11 2014, 03:30 PM)
I dont expect any drop actually. Worse case scenario would be a stagnation. Dont expect any huge drops. That wont happen and Bank Negara wont allow it to happen.
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Correct Malaysia is the only country in the world that which properties would "never ever" faced price drop, all those problems faced by other countries like US, PIGGS, Singapore will never happened here, our country will become developed nation by 2018 & income per capital will double, triple every few years, soon we will overtake Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan & become Asia No.1 super power economy.
Our bank negara have so much money that they can compensate every flipper who loss money in properties flipping. rclxms.gif
If those American, Spanish had consult our Bank Negara they would not end up where they r today, because we have secret fomula for indestructible properties market. cool2.gif

This post has been edited by jolokia: Jan 11 2014, 04:28 PM
SUSjolokia
post Jan 11 2014, 07:24 PM

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QUOTE(JustcallmeLarry @ Jan 11 2014, 05:49 PM)
So if it's ur money will your buy property in Penang this year or wait?
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Depends which "story" u prefer to believe. biggrin.gif

http://realtymalaysia.blogspot.com/2013/12...set-to.html?m=1

or

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-ma...oderate-in-2014

In 2 years there in additional 48K house coming, while in 6 years Penang residents expect to increase 300K, base on 4 person per house meaning 75K is needed for next 6 years but in 2 years already 65% ready, so calculate yourself & determine price will up or down. brows.gif



SUSjolokia
post Jan 11 2014, 08:56 PM

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http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...from-trade-pact

Read this particular part which Tun Mahathir comments on our property biggrin.gif

He also pointed out that Putrajaya was going about the wrong way to make Malaysia a developed nation by 2020, as spectacular buildings and shining skyscrapers would not help the country.

He said that a lot of the foreign direct investment (FDI) which Malaysia attracted was for the construction of buildings.

"While the sums are huge, I do not think that Malaysia benefits that much. The technology used to design and construct the buildings is not something Malaysia does not already have.

"The construction of such buildings benefits the foreign workers more than it benefits Malaysia.

The foreign workers will pocket their salaries and remit it back to their homeland."

Dr Mahathir said what Malaysia needed to
improve its income was investment in high-tech industries, as higher qualified Malaysians could work in these fields.

He expressed confidence that there were a lot of qualified Malaysians in the market, noting that a few thousand vacancies in the government service attracted more than a million applications.

"For Malaysia to become a developed nation, we need to diversify. The shiny new buildings and skyscrapers do not mean Malaysia is a developed nation, whatever the per capita income may be."

"Good point of view" he may not everyone favorite statesman, but can't denied his sharp vision & foresight.
SUSjolokia
post Jan 12 2014, 11:14 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 12 2014, 09:34 AM)
" Don't buy a house whose price is artificially inflated just because you're afraid you'll miss out on the opportunity to buy before prices go up yet again."

I thought the above statement is quite valid. I read it that dun buy what flippers are selling you or dun buy it for own stay if it is already goreng to very high price.

Maybe I misunderstood it, care to share your view ?
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If everyone learn to be a smart investors & do not buy over inflated property from flippers, flippers would be begging under the bridge today with a coconut bowl. .lol

Offcoz flippers don't like wise advise from experts. .
SUSjolokia
post Jan 12 2014, 11:22 AM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 12 2014, 10:39 AM)
Flippers and buyers of expensive houses also work hard for their money and take risks. It is better to direct energy to making products and providing services to other people, to add value to the society, rather than cursing others and making no gains in the savings account.
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Totally ultra rubbish posting, how do flipper add value to society ?
Snatch thief also work hard daily & take risks, corrupt gov officer also work hard & take risk, r they contributing & add value to society as well ?
By criticising those who post negative comments on flipper too doesn't seem to add any cents in to your savings account I supposed.

SUSjolokia
post Jan 12 2014, 11:51 AM

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QUOTE(lilzany @ Jan 12 2014, 11:27 AM)
nobody will be able to get some good properties without flippers to be honest.
R U serious ? lol

Without flipper every one can get a good property with reasonable price, many flippers bribe the developers staff to hold on to good property before launch, causing genuine buyer lack of good choice, this in fact allowed developer jack up the price further, thus eventually kills the entire economy as people have less nett disposable income to spend on other sectors, this is what happened now in Hong Kong & Singapore, as if wasn't flippers that destroyed the US & Spain economy during 2008 real estate subprime crisis which still can't solved till today.


SUSjolokia
post Jan 12 2014, 07:53 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jan 12 2014, 07:41 PM)
http://vdoobv.com/?p=5383

yes but soli forgotten to provide link
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I prefer 3 ..lol
SUSjolokia
post Jan 13 2014, 04:28 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Jan 13 2014, 04:02 PM)
A slight diversion to compare taxation in Germany vs Malaysia:

If u earn E$60,000 per annum (5K per month) in Germany, the total amount of tax you need to pay is E$ 14,650 or 24%. This includes the following taxes:

1) Income tax
2) Solidarity tax (to help rebuild East Germany)

If u earn >E$52,000 per year, your company must pay 50% your monthly private medical insurance premium up to a max of E$ 315 per month. You pay the balance.

So if ure earning E$5,000 per month, the net salary u will receive after all tax, health insurance and pension fund deductions will be E$ 3,330.

If u compare with a Malaysian earning RM5K per month, your net salary you receive(after deductions) will be RM4,243 per month. But from this amount, you need to pay RM 600 per month for health insurance (to get the same coverage as a German). So after this deduction, you get RM 3,640 in your pocket.

So if you take into account salary comparisons with taxes, yes Germans will pay more. But for a difference of 310 per month (take currency conversion out of the picture since ure not a tourist), Germans get:

1) Cars priced about 50% cheaper with more efficient engines
2) Higher grade petrol at 30% cheaper
3) Toll free highways
4) World class education system
5) Higher levels of personal safety
6) Better quality of life in general
7) Higher purchasing power

So tell me, are all those stories that the Malaysian Gov told us all these years about our supposedly lower cost of living, really true?
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Germany VAT at 17% & reduced VAT at 7% for things like food, books, medical, transport, newspaper & etc

In Germany income tax also difference for Single, Married, Single Parent,
Married people pay less tax compare to Single. ..lol


SUSjolokia
post Jan 13 2014, 05:30 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 13 2014, 05:11 PM)
There is likely to be a shortage of supply of lower-end housing (e.g. $200-300k RM condominium) and buyers are desperate.

IMHO, he is under some pressure to get an affordable housing to move on to the next stage of life (marriage).

Flippers share risks with developers by taking units off their hands, but most of the time, they jack up prices unnecessarily.  However they are more of a symptom of the problematic housing system issue rather than the cause of it.  The PR1MA and whatever schemes are not very transparent and very slow in rolling out low to medium cost housing.  Flippers came in to scoop up the good units from private developers, knowing that the pent-up demand will push prices further and ensure future buyers.  By allowing the developers to buy up huge tracts of land, the government has effectively lost control over the housing supply.
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There is "No" supply of 200-300K new condo in KV main as far as i see.. sigh

Your personal vendetta again him is making u look like a sour plum at time. laugh.gif

U seem like finding every Good Excuse for damage control over Flipper, making them Hero out of Zero.. cool2.gif
SUSjolokia
post Jan 14 2014, 02:06 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 14 2014, 01:26 PM)
Based on 2012 IMF figure, Malaysia GDP/capita is US$17k. At forex 3.25, average income is RM55k. Therefore average house price is 6.7 times RM55k = RM370k. Is this average house price reasonable in Malaysia ? If it is reasonable, then the house price in Malaysia is not that expensive compare to other country.

Let's say we increase the average house price to RM600k (more like it for KV). The index increases to 10.86. It will still rank 53th in the world. Still very very low compare to world standard

Figures can't lie. I am DDD. And I am disappointed  sad.gif
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Malaysia GDP 17K usd .... wakakaka

Our gov announced our GDP merely 10-11K USD & hopping to achieve 15K usd by 2018-2020 to become "developed nation" ..

So this figure is proven nothing but a hoax...lol

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD

SUSjolokia
post Jan 14 2014, 02:25 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Jan 14 2014, 02:15 PM)
GDP (PPP) per capita is not the same as GDP (nominal) per capita
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PPP Purchasing Power Parity is not suppose to convert into local currency when comparing between country, which is why I said the so call properties affordability figure is nothing but developer bullcrap, one supposed to use a basket if product not base on real estate alone, size of land in a country & population will also determine the price, btw isn't our car is among the most expensive in the world.

This post has been edited by jolokia: Jan 14 2014, 02:35 PM

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