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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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SUSjolokia
post Dec 30 2013, 07:01 PM

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QUOTE(New Klang @ Dec 30 2013, 04:30 PM)
Seems like the discussion is fast becoming out of topic.

Is this overdose of information from search engines?

The question is where are the signs of bubble?

Please close this thread if discussions are irrelevant.
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Property bubble mean price of property grow faster than income.

Isn't that relevant ? if you do not like what you read here you can always counter it with fact & your point of view.

SUSjolokia
post Dec 30 2013, 07:14 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Dec 30 2013, 04:27 PM)
tieying back to our topic.. means hong kong graduates only earn HKD 6000, their property 3.5 million.. so malaysian below 3 k, property only 700k..

i wonder your conclusion is that we are still far to be catching up with hong kong. means our property is damm cheap and based on your comments.. it seems that our salary employees are over paid comapred to those in HKG?

COZ by maths,

HKD 6000 = 3.5 MILLION property

RM3K = 700K

SO

when malaysian earning

RM6K = OUR PEOPERTY DOUBLE UP TO 1.4 million?

still below hong kong rate right? why i dont see that even i m in that category?
so, please buy more property now before increase to 1.4 million right? 1.4 million is servicing 4-5 k loan 35 years U SURE BO?
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Hong Kong property is currently most expensive in the world, even Europe, US & Japan is not match for them.
Their land is very limited & high density population so can't compare with us.
Surprisingly their car cost half of us here though their ownership cost is high
Even mid management there don't dare to buy properties as totally beyond their capability.

At time I find Malaysian quite funny when people say house expensive they compare to HK, when people say car expensive they compare with Singapore, when people say they build too many house they compare with Australia.

So what do you all want ? Hong Kong house price, Singapore car price, UK food price, with North Korea freedom & Zimbabwe salary ??
SUSjolokia
post Dec 30 2013, 07:22 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Dec 30 2013, 04:45 PM)
Indeed.  I suspect a big portion of the GDP is linked to construction and real estate.  But that is where the GDP can easily grow and someone gets a cut of it from connection to the deals.  The government has to borrow to finance these expenditure, but the man in the street will eventually pay the bill.  In fact he has already started paying the bills, and more bills in 2014 onward.
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How could that be Developers says their cost very high only untung tidbits..lol

Aiyah u have people who can afford 110 millions property in US, sure GDP figures increase lah ..sigh

If one earn 100 million 99999 earn 10 sens also GDP 10K mah..hehe
SUSjolokia
post Dec 30 2013, 07:48 PM

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QUOTE(Zres @ Dec 30 2013, 04:31 PM)
Fren grad from Aus, went back to HK, his salary not more than 10K

I am curious and asked other Hongkies....

replied is "依家香港geh市真系好差"

I am fine if what im said sounds silly...just try to check if u have any connection in HK, or go HK forum ask around

then come back and shoot me gao gao...
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Results from over speculated properties many countries face the same senario, when the entire economy highly depends on properties, other sectors suffer as people put most of their income paying mortgage with little disposable income for other investment & expenditure, other business begin to suffering resulting low employment, low wages, business shut down.
If by now our government doesn't realise this expect Malaysia heading same route.

Hong Kong Graduates Salary currently is 5% less than 1997..omg

Overall approx 13K HKD but there r some low demand subject one earning as low as 9K & high demand on at 15-18K.

Maybe the subject your friends studies either low demand or over supply.

SUSjolokia
post Dec 30 2013, 08:30 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 30 2013, 08:04 PM)
Anybody read sinchew today ? Total households in malaysia it says is 6.9 mil. Existing house supplies is 4.67mil. Hmm, dun know whether they meant the supplies is available supplies or total supplies or total housings?
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2 millions household lived under the bridge or on top of trees ...lol

Many house not registered like in pendalaman East Malaysia, some kampung many house registered under 1 address.

Anyway how do they defined household ? eg if I am married my parents live with me & I have 3 kids living in same house considered 1 or 2 household ?

Or shall we build like Spain where numbers of house equal to 80% of population ...lol

Anyway read this

http://www.starproperty.my/index.php/artic...d-and-lived-in/




SUSjolokia
post Dec 31 2013, 01:11 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 31 2013, 12:16 PM)
Whole of kv or just klcc area? Most foreigners units will be tenanted, will there be enough tenants to fulfill all flippers vacant units?
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Sure got enough SPM students plus foreign labour enough to filled in the blank already, no jokes I know some owner actually place their foreign worker in their semi D...lol

QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 31 2013, 12:22 PM)
Don't forget to BUY BUY BUY at Muadzam Shah before price goes UP, UP, UP! thumbup.gif  rclxms.gif
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Previously goreng Ipoh later people know is hoax already now goreng Seremban mah, a lot of small owner also hope flipper come to goreng in their area hopefully can get rid of their dead weight property..lol
Who know next could be Muadzam Shah, Bentong Kali & etc. . :hehe
SUSjolokia
post Dec 31 2013, 02:06 PM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Dec 31 2013, 01:53 PM)
Just in time for TURUN↓ . .lol

Any possibility will effect house prices ah ? :hehe
SUSjolokia
post Dec 31 2013, 09:01 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 31 2013, 08:37 PM)
That's why crisis always come as a surprise when nobody predicted. Now we all here predicted the market will crash/slow down, everyone will get prepared and the effect of crisis will be smooth out. Damn !
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Most flipper/gamble wanna wait until perfect time to get out & usually they hit the wall rather than the jackpot.
Problem is unlike stock market one can get out within days property took months to dispose.
Heard that developers wanna offer up to 25 years rental guarantee. .maybe using a RM 2 company to guarantee again. .who wanna hold a condo for 25 years ?? ..lol
I think developer know can no longer get young & naive flipper now targeting housewife obasan & those who wanna retire & become land lord collecting rental I suppose. .rofl
SUSjolokia
post Jan 1 2014, 02:28 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jan 1 2014, 01:44 PM)
I'm not vely sure bout the actual figure but does tis 2.5mil include BANGLASIA voters??? hmm.gif
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These 2.5M include Phantom of the opera, duo or triple personality, profesional x marker, hehe

Malaysia population growth rate very slow merely 2.4% Chinese aka the biggest property purchaser growth rate even slower like 1.8 children for every women.

So basically the demand for house will be lesser & lesser in future, aging society like Japan & Korea.

Malaysia properties market in future doesn't look good, unlike Singapore, Canada & Australia which attract rich migrants, we import cheap foreign labour which does not bring in any capital nor afford to buy properties.

Developers & flipper can bull all they like fact is there, many Chinese school actually have less than 50 students some even less than 10, what this mean ? Chinese have less kids, within a decade Chinese population in Malaysia would actually face negative growth.

So where is the not enough house theory ? I noticed even our Malay friends is having smaller family compare to their parents.
SUSjolokia
post Jan 1 2014, 03:22 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 1 2014, 03:07 PM)
GE interval is 5 years lah. So 2.5m / 5 = 500,000 every year. Still a hell lot of new demand previously cannot afford

Can they afford ? Fresh grad starts with ~RM2.5k. With 2-3 years working experience maybe ~RM3.5k-RM4k. They combine with spouse then household income is ~RM7k-RM8k. With stupid banks previously willing to loan up to 60%-70%, they can easily afford properties >RM500k 

Good that Bank Negara has stopped the stupid DIBS etc. But those fresh grads who bought were lucky. They manage to own properties even without down payments. Now new fresh grads who want to buy no more affordable. They got to save hard for 6-8 years before they can think of property
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2.5 m new voters doesn't mean these r all new youngsters just that previously most youngsters don't bother to registered as voters they thought not point voting as no changes can ever be made, until 2008 they noticed the possibility is there, therefore more go & registered, many of my friends & colleage in their 30's who had never voted only registered months before GE.
Using new young voters as guide to potential properties purchaser is totally misleading.
Ask yourselves do you have as much children's as your parents or grandparents ? most if not all of us have less, so whey got so many new young buyer's.
Percentage of Chinese in population also getting less & less, as I said so many Chinese school is in the verge of closing down due to low number of enrolment.
Our voter's very long life one many exceed 100 years old ..hehe I'll take with grain of salt if someone use voters as guide.
SUSjolokia
post Jan 1 2014, 04:01 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 1 2014, 03:32 PM)
Ok, let's see stats on Malaysia Demographics

http://www.indexmundi.com/malaysia/demographics_profile.html

0-14 years: 29.1% (male 4,433,911/female 4,186,635)
15-24 years: 17% (male 2,552,709/female 2,487,366)
25-54 years: 41.3% (male 6,195,754/female 6,027,160)
55-64 years: 7.4% (male 1,112,529/female 1,069,036)
65 years and over: 5.3% (male 739,696/female 823,596) (2013 est.)

Malaysia is still a relatively young country. Only 12.7% are over 55 years old. If you look at those 15-24 y/o there are about 5 million of them ! Too bad there is no breakdown for 25-33 (Gen Y)

Anyway, my point is that DIBS + Zero entry cost has played a big part in creating new demand, hence explaining why although income growth is stagnant, but demand for properties keep soaring up for the last few years
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According to cencus done in 2010, during 2001 those below 15 r 32.7% by 2010 is was 27.2% a reduction of 5.5% youngsters.

Don't u know our "undi" population r are always higher than cencus population. .lol

Just artificial demand create by developers & flipper like oil in 2008, eventually will burst just oil & the infamous Dubai style meltdown.

Surprisingly GST will actually reduced building materials cost ..lol

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...ountant-bernama

This post has been edited by jolokia: Jan 1 2014, 04:10 PM
SUSjolokia
post Jan 1 2014, 04:28 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 1 2014, 04:14 PM)
Very close to my link. If you look at the latest link until July 2013, those below 15 is 29.1%
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As I said "undi" population usually higher than cencus population ..lol

If u get my drift, me still think our population aging so many 100 years old people still vote every years .. :hehe

Too bad the figure never showed composition base on races as we know bulk purchases come from Chinese, if available the figure should be more accurate.
SUSjolokia
post Jan 1 2014, 06:47 PM

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QUOTE(accetera @ Jan 1 2014, 05:48 PM)
BEWARE... China-based developers are scouting lands around Klang Valley to build high density townships. Several fund managers are talking about the potential announcement by Country Garden's personal entry into the KL market.

According to my list, there are over 200 highrise projects waiting to be launched in 2014 across Klang Valley, and unless developers hold back to prevent bubble.
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Good 2 built until we get those ghost town like China, then these flipper will be quiet ...lol
These people really funny they thought all those fresh grad 100% will work in KV, 100% come from ulu kampong like them, 100% straight away buy properties, or rent entire condo for few thousand ringgit per month.
First of all have u all actually meet these fresh grads ? have u check their salary market ? have u talk to them see they even thought of buying property or capable of doing so, u think everyone of them have millionaire parents ?
Nowadays fresh grad get 2.2 to 2.5K & salary increments like 3-5% annually, most of them will shout money not enough by mid of the month, some more most will never buy local car, minimum also want Vios or Kia, hand phone must be S4, Note3, every weekend clubbing, holiday sure want to go trips.
I actually ask a few of them on buying property their answer is never come across their mind, don't wanna become slave to house, wait until wanna married at 30 years old then think, some elder will shout faster buy if not later cannot afford, they just say u buy me one lah ! elders keep quiet already ...lol


SUSjolokia
post Jan 1 2014, 08:32 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Jan 1 2014, 07:51 PM)
and risk not able to obtain the necessary sales if launch?

I think they would rather service their loans until they could make ah jib kor to reverse all his previous decisions last budget....
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I actually prefer Jibby reverse all his control on speculators, let the market heat up then come PIGGS style property crash, only in that manner we can expect dirt cheap dead chicken lying around.

QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 1 2014, 08:07 PM)
So far the most bullish one here are wait and see. Pls tell us that u r so bullish that u hv recently bought. Better still, multiple units. We do really need some fresh perspective here.
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Property market now r like Pyramid scheme, constantly need bigger fool at the bottom to catch the top shit, once they can no longer find enough bottom fools they become the greatest fools & the Pyramid would end up as their graveyard.
Personally I read lyf comments similar to fairy tales at time, not only property talk, fast & furious as well, if you read fast & furious they would all said korean car is no.1 selling especially naza kia, no one buy Vios already, but in reality Vios is No 1 seller for great many years till date, here in Property talk again u sell people still says BBB but did they actually buy ? I can always said I gasap 10 units Fennel but what's the prove ? ..lol
If really can afford multiple million property no need come here or no time come here to blow water already lah. .
Those who can afford already buy till their neck already in 2010-2012 now waiting for their VP in 2014-2015 some already VP in 2013, so very desperate to unload before all the barang naik 2014 & gst 2015 take effect & water fish have less $$, so can see their drooling for naive fresh grads to be their potential victims. .rofl

SUSjolokia
post Jan 2 2014, 09:33 AM

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QUOTE(yang1976 @ Jan 2 2014, 08:53 AM)
+100 on "It's a matter of affordability. You can want (demand) it doesn't mean you can afford it.  icon_idea.gif "    regardless of what type of wants(demands) for whatever purpose in mind.
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http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2014...ial-discipline/

Earn 7-10K per month before talk about demand. .lol

Those who think 500K SPM students will come to KV & buy or rent your property ..lol first ask yourselves r your company willing to pay them 7-10K starting salary or not...lol

This post has been edited by jolokia: Jan 2 2014, 09:34 AM
SUSjolokia
post Jan 2 2014, 11:59 AM

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QUOTE(yugimudo @ Jan 2 2014, 11:46 AM)
Well, as long it is a condo, rent or buy, does it matter? biggrin.gif

Hence that is why my Gen will rent those 1k++ condo or service apartment, just to impress fellow facebooker.

It just times before those OnGer will start the buying frenzy.
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Every one also wanna buy but can afford or not is a total different issue, without zero entry cost look see look see & eat free satay during launching only lah...lol


SUSjolokia
post Jan 2 2014, 12:01 PM

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QUOTE(accetera @ Jan 2 2014, 10:23 AM)
I think by and large investors should also consider RENTING a property close to their office nearby for convenience purposes.

Meaning to say, RENTERS may not necessary do not own a home or properties. Say someone from Cheras working in PJ. He or she may rent in Tropicana City near to office, and owned a landed property in Cheras where he rented out. He also buys properties for investment rental in Setapak, Jalan Ampang, USJ Subang Jaya and Maluri. All his properties seem to be investable and rentable, yet HE himself rents and want to be close to his GF's parents' home in PJ.

I encountered such person.
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Flipper renting from each other, Flipper dream ...zzzzZzzz

Should sell this idea to make KL world class city...China buyer rent from Middle East buyer, Middle East buyer rent from Singaporean, Singaporean buyer rent from China, every one buy property & able to collect rent..lol

This post has been edited by jolokia: Jan 2 2014, 12:33 PM
SUSjolokia
post Jan 2 2014, 12:11 PM

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QUOTE(MishimaZ @ Jan 2 2014, 12:01 PM)
O&G to planner, start from scratch right? Planner's job not much compared to O&G wor....

Back to ideas, how world class you expect KL to be? KL has lots of heritage buildings, roads are terrible, drains never maintained, scammers conmen everywhere, 2014 countdown like hooligan spray nonsense and throw rubbish on the floor..... what to improve?

It starts with the Malaysians mentality first.  biggrin.gif  biggrin.gif  biggrin.gif
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Just an flowers language to legalising $$$ laundering from oversea lah.

Developer helping nation to develop KL into world class city ... lol
SUSjolokia
post Jan 2 2014, 06:28 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 2 2014, 10:02 AM)
How will the property market fare in 2014?
Dec 31, 2013 - PropertyGuru.com.my

Malaysia’s real estate sector is expected to remain vibrant next year, especially its middle and low-end segments, due to overwhelming demand amidst limited supply.

In fact, the country only has 4.6 million houses for its population of 28 million, or one home for every six Malaysians. According to experts, the ideal number is 2.5 persons per dwelling, just like in the UK and Australia. But with supply at 100,000 units per year, it is going to take a long time to reach this figure.

To make matters worse, Klang Valley’s current population of 7.2 million is expected to surge to 10 million by 2020 due to rapid urbanisation rate.

In addition, more international investors are projected to invest in Malaysia, particularly its real estate sector, due to the country’s robust economy and sound fiscal policies.

Due to the nation’s lower total deficit, Moody’s recently affirmed the government’s bond and issuer rating at A3, and changed its outlook from stable to positive. This means the country can easily get loans at lower interest rates and investors are assured that Malaysia can repay its debt obligations.

However, 2014 could also spell trouble for the property market due to a possible slowdown in China’s economy, a rise in global interest rates and the tapering of the third round of quantitative easing (QE3) in the United States by January.

Another worrying problem is the slowing demand for high-end properties despite their abundant supply. In fact, the percentage of unsold luxury houses in the primary market is climbing.

Nevertheless, Bank Negara Malaysia Governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz believes that the country’s real estate sector can weather the storm just like what happened in the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. While the US housing market went bust during that period, its Malaysian counterpart remained resilient.

But the measure that could significantly affect the property market will likely be the upcoming real property gains tax (RPGT). Effective January 2014, the tax for houses sold within three years of purchase will be doubled from 15 percent to 30 percent.

For foreigners and companies, the RPGT is pegged at 30 percent for sales within five years and five percent for any subsequent year. But for Malaysians who sell their property within four and five years, the rate is at 20 and 15 percent respectively, while transactions after that period are exempt from the levy.

The six percent goods and sales tax (GST) which takes effect on April 2015 is also expected to affect the real estate sector even though the sale, purchase and rental of residential properties are exempt from it. This is because the sale of construction materials and equipment were not exempted, likewise for services used in building houses.

Meanwhile, the government will also be spending more on residential projects meant for low- and middle-income households.

For instance, the National Housing Department (NHD) under the People’s Housing Programme (PHP) has allocated RM578 million for 16,473 new dwellings, while another RM146 million has been earmarked for building 600 rental units.

In peninsular Malaysia, houses under the PHP are priced between RM30,000 and RM35,000, while those in Sabah and Sarawak have been pegged at RM40,500 per unit.

The government has also committed another RM1 billion for the construction of 80,000 additional homes under the 1 Malaysia’s People Housing Programme (PR1MA). These homes are 20 percent cheaper than similar units available in the market.

The authorities will also launch a new Private Affordable Ownership Housing Scheme, (MyHome). Under this programme, RM300 million will be given to developers so that they can build low- and medium-cost houses, subsidised at RM30,000 per unit.

They will also create an agency that will oversee the overall planning, policy and strategy formulation, as well as coordination and monitoring of all issues affecting Malaysia’s housing market. Dubbed as the National Housing Council, its members will come from state governments, federal agencies, SPNB, NHD and PR1MA, along with private sector representatives.

Farah Wahida, Editor of PropertyGuru, wrote this story. To contact her about this or other stories email farahwahida@propertyguru.com.my

http://www.propertyguru.com.my/property-ne...t-fare-in-2014-
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2.5 person per property that mean.

If a family consist of 2 grandparents, parents & 3 kids, need 3 house ...lol

Western society have small numbers of family members, they dispose their parent, kid above 18 usually move out, wherelese here in most children stay with parent untill marriage, some until found work outstation, usually children would also stay with parent when parent is old & need care.

BTW 2.5 persons/house r they also suggesting couples with 2 kids should buy another house next door to place their kid there ? laugh.gif Our malays friends usually have larger family like 5-6 kids would need 3 house then..1 house for parent, 1 house for kid 1,2,3 another house for kid 4,5,6 .. laugh.gif

These developer would says anything without going thru logic to sell their property. doh.gif
SUSjolokia
post Jan 2 2014, 07:42 PM

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QUOTE(akh731 @ Jan 2 2014, 06:50 PM)
another thing is 2.5 pax per house mean asked their parents stay at their own.

how sick this article to ask BBB....
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Ask parents to stay on their own is not good but ask your toddler & Baby to stay on their own is out of their mind..lol

A heartless society in exchange for a developed nation, I bet even Singapore & Hong Kong have more than than 2 5 persons per house.

Some building materials r charge 10% Sales tax & some r 5%, Construction machinery no sales tax, so overall should be no much different, when less house r build cost word actually reduced as less demand for limited supply material like sand, bricks, cement, wood & etc.
In fact land price will also be lower as no many trying to out tender each other.

So isn't house prices should be cheaper ?

That why developer r always my lease respect group during good time they hantam profit kau2 during bad time the cabut leaving behind abandoned project. .sigh

This post has been edited by jolokia: Jan 2 2014, 07:52 PM

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