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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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SUSjolokia
post Jan 3 2014, 09:23 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 3 2014, 08:58 AM)
It is kv, not kl. Kl has 1 over millions only. Kv has much bigger area.
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That why I got shocked when I read 800K for 1 million people, just like Spain number of house equal to 80% population, then Baby, Toddler also have 1 House...lol

Offcoz developer would say not enough house mah, if enough house they need to close shop already, anyway I'll take those figure provide by them with a grain of salt.



SUSjolokia
post Jan 3 2014, 03:20 PM

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QUOTE(r3apers @ Jan 3 2014, 03:09 PM)
oic... haha, now i only know... coz mostly ppl ard me mention ghost town only... sweat.gif
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Bukit Beruntung yang tidak untung... brows.gif
SUSjolokia
post Jan 3 2014, 03:51 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Jan 3 2014, 03:38 PM)
Youngsters should be working hard and saving up, not buying expensive props in the first place...
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Reason they die die also hantam expensive properties because believe that later price sure up up in the sky & out of their reach.

Youngsters no longer believe in working hard & saving up, they believed working smart & fast return investment, then semi retire & enjoy life in 40's...lol
SUSjolokia
post Jan 3 2014, 05:09 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 3 2014, 04:40 PM)
Ceh all malaysian PHD MEH.. even PHD also see field one.. singapore PHD no work brotherr..
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Nowadays Phd no need study one, just pay few thousand, if want convocation photo add in 1.5K they would get a few mat salleh kalefe to present you the cert & take photo. ..lol

They think show phd cert boss straight give 10-20K salary meh. .lol
SUSjolokia
post Jan 3 2014, 07:14 PM

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Let us go back to discussing sign of Real Estate Bubble which this thread is all about.

I can't help but notice the last few hundred postings is all about Continue BBB & Flipper with end up pokai kind of posting.

I mean do you all actually know what's Real Estate Bubble is about ? Bubble simply mean the price of properties rise to the extent beyond the affordability of the target group, offcoz even if the condo in KV go beyond 3 millions for a simple 1000 sf or simple 20X60 double stories terrace cost 5 millions there r still rich people who can afford but who r they going to flip it to ? r they willing to buy, affordability & willingness to buy is 2 different thing.

Bubble doesn't necessarily go burst straight away, it can go stagnant eg like our present senario, buyer wait for lower price & sellers waiting for higher price, later it can be slowly deflate as seller know they can't get any better price as the longer they wait the higher their cost & less profit, some of you might said it can go the other way around like buyer know there is no way price will drop any further so they give in & pay seller asking price, let me tell u why this senario is less likely, buyer can't secure any further loan, even if buyer able to secure the loan they know they can't live a decent life with 70% of their income go to paying household debt, buyer no longer see the possibility of getting enough rental yield from the inflated property price, generally income from salary is stagnant for now & may even drop after gst, price of other good & expenditure is expected to go up tremendously for 2014-2015, business may suffer boss might retrench or hold on to increment perhaps cut down workforces.
So all the indication show the Bubble is not sustainable & even Singapore is facing deflation of bubble as at now, the up coming time might mean Singaporean might exit our property market soon as other sectors in their country too show sign of contraction.
For those who wanna believe there is still plenty of space for property price to further growth please proceed to buy, those who disbelieve can hold on & watch, no point calling each other name or what not, deal ?

SUSjolokia
post Jan 3 2014, 10:01 PM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Jan 3 2014, 09:06 PM)
Yes, must increase the price cause seller also need to survive mah. tongue.gif
Problem is that potential pool of buyer is very limited now. so what to do?

The strategy now is very simple. you see fresh graduates hundreds of thousands every year, and majority of them from other states flock to KL to work. They do not have the means to buy from you, so just rent it to them. Property owners must unite and please do not undercut each other on the rental pricing, must fix a baseline rental amount.

So you ask what if they cant afford to pay the rent? (high rent due to expensive installment to banks)
No problem, instead of 3 graduates renting one house, you rent it to 6 graduates sharing the house. I have seen Sunway Monash college did this, partitioned one condo to 6 or 7 rooms and charge RM800 each.

Easy money!! nice or not this strategy?
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U r a very self contradiction fellow aren't u ? 1st is a fact majority Malaysian in Peninsular live in KV easily approx 1/3 correct ? base on 6 out of 20 millions, so how come majority graduates come from out station ? U mean most of the youngsters in KV r bloody stupid not qualify or drop out of school ? most of them r loser selling burger/durian/or pirated dvd ? or do u mean most KV couples r kid less or max 1 kid ?
If not isn't majority graduates r from KV ? meaning these youngsters r unlikely need to rent a house to work in KL.
You mean there is no graduates will work in Penang, or JB Iskandar ? is Penang & Iskandar employing Bangla/Indon/Myanmar graduates to work & no local ? does this mean Penang & Iskandar properties is flop with no graduates tenant ?
Eg me live in KL suburban & work in KL central do I need to rent a house in KL golden triangle ? or my colleagues who live in Cheras, Kepong, Klang Lama need to rent as well ?
Assume my wild guess is majority or easily half or more graduates r originated from KV who do not need a second house or room to work in KL/KV & another fraction eg 25% work in Penang/Iskandar or other town, all u have is 20-25% graduates likely to rent, with so many sold but vacant unit why should they rent your overpriced shoebox ?

SUSjolokia
post Jan 3 2014, 10:05 PM

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QUOTE(investz @ Jan 3 2014, 09:37 PM)
I would like to thanks for those who hope property DDD and NO BBB. So that I can rend out my unit easily  icon_rolleyes.gif
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What for ? we already have our own house just wait for u all cannot tahan then sell to us at dirt cheap price or go visit AKPK muahaha...
SUSjolokia
post Jan 3 2014, 10:09 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 3 2014, 09:55 PM)
I have never heard MCD KFC reducing their prices.  Care to share more details, please?
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Every day MD & KFC also have value lunch & dinner what, occasionally got special price for selected meal, KFC every tuesday 25% off snacks plates, previously where got ? don't believe me ask your grandchildren I am sure they know...lol
SUSjolokia
post Jan 4 2014, 12:34 PM

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QUOTE(commander571 @ Jan 4 2014, 12:08 PM)
For flippers: no different from gambling in the current market. Holding power is the key to survive in this adverse condition.
For investor: prepare your cash to reenter market in the more attractive prices.
For house seeker: sorry, price is very unlikely to come down as long as the second group exist unless the incident in 1997 is repeated again.

For renter: you will hv more choices and lower rent as time goes. Are you sure? More and more people are immigrating to city nowadays.
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2014-2015 may very well be 97 revisiting, rise of electric tariff already shocked many industries which highly depends on cost of electric bill, mall in example biggest bill go in to monthly electric consumption, as I said it again & again property sector r highly dependent sector, when other sectors faced difficulties so will property sector, unless u think 99% of the investor/flipper also work in property sector where they actually flip to each other.

When you faced difficulties in your business what would you do ? sacrificing those property for investment purposes or sacrificing your businesses retaining those properties ? when your boss cut your pay what would you do ? disposed off those extra property or dispose off your family/car/children education/emergency saving & etc ?

My conclusion is property investment is a dependent investment just like share/mutual fund/gold, it cannot survive in stand alone mode, you don't quit your job or close your business & survive solely on playing property flipping.
SUSjolokia
post Jan 4 2014, 03:33 PM

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QUOTE(goldchris @ Jan 4 2014, 03:08 PM)
doh.gif i bought long alr bro, 8 year since I bought my first of course having a better one now, the fact is i dont see you realise reality is reality, some taiko tell some pretty true story gen Y pandai complain barang naik, compalin house expensive yet like my junior colleague capable to makan Old town, Bee, Makoko(forget wat name liao japanese restaurent lol), chili rush, nando for everyday lunch, until end of the month no saving hopeless genY and go back home stick with running man hehe haha end up sleep coffin lo
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If all youngsters eat roti kosong drink sky juice just for the sake of paying highly inflated house beyond their comfort mean, these restaurant will end up tutup kedai or at lease very limited expansion, later no tenants renting in mall, mall go tutup kedai, food suppliers & restaurant supplier tutup kedai, advertisement firm tutup kedai, all those worker no job & etc.

So entire economy not moving youngsters loss job no money to buy from developers, developer went bankrupt or only able to lauch very little project, so flipper like u no kang tao also went pokai.

Understand or not the entire economy is interlinking, you can't expect all money channel to pay property only & all other business pokai, who is financing the youngsters to buy.

Oh yah if rich old folks eat in those restaurant frequently their heart cannot take it got money but but no chance to use...lol
SUSjolokia
post Jan 4 2014, 04:02 PM

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QUOTE(goldchris @ Jan 4 2014, 03:41 PM)
I thought u like crash wat LOlx, continue wat u like, happy to see tat lolx
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Not really I just want flipper cannot tahan & give up their properties at dead chicken price then I grabs & resurrect it, later I become filty rich if not pokai..wakakaka

Just explain to you properly sector can only be good of entire economy is good, youngsters is the biggest economy contributors, we need them to equally distribute their spending not only concentrate on property. . cheerios. . biggrin.gif
SUSjolokia
post Jan 4 2014, 07:18 PM

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QUOTE(twincharger07 @ Jan 4 2014, 04:33 PM)
dont worry.... only a few ppl eat roti kosong drink sky juice wont kill the economy as in reality, majority still "life goes on" buy gadgets, eat Umai-ya, go Beer Factory, go lavish holidays..

but it is the few that did thrifty lifestyle during early days invest wisely end up ahead of the game than their peers...

Living below means...  smile.gif
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So u mean only a few youngsters will live in extreme thrifty manner, meaning only a few will potentially buy properties, so you agreed that property market buying craze is over & now is DDD time, those who bought earlier have no choice but to fire sales their property, so all their ikat peruh suffer gone with the wind as their property now only have a very little potential buyer.
Thanks why I said a lot of so call flipper r low in eq when they comments, live below mean also mean they will not pay inflated price for property, thus they will not offer you all flippers high price, or you mean they ikat perut for all other things but stupid enough to pay whatever price you ask for ? Then back to square one which is other sectors collapsed, they got no job or suffer pay cut again they can't afford the price you ask for, it's a catch 22 situation isn't it.

This post has been edited by jolokia: Jan 4 2014, 07:27 PM
SUSjolokia
post Jan 4 2014, 07:29 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Jan 4 2014, 07:07 PM)
Walau eh....bear bear wong, how come everything seem to die die die wan for you ah?

you sure you are not suffering from depression?  biggrin.gif

Judging by the way you post I wonder how you even wake up in the morning.... biggrin.gif
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Talk sense, don't personal attack other forum member please.

Your comment represent your good self.
SUSjolokia
post Jan 4 2014, 08:20 PM

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QUOTE(Maneki-neko @ Jan 4 2014, 08:05 PM)
No worries, the 20% high incomers / rich people will still support the economy, just like any other developing countries  biggrin.gif

Those who alway keep complaining about 'not enough money', please improve your skill set so that u are able to get a highly paid job  icon_idea.gif
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20% ??

http://www.nst.com.my/latest/only-one-mill...rs-irb-1.304245

1/29 is 3.4%

Out of the 1 million probably less than half consider "Rich" so it may just be 1-2% is supporting the property market so how long will BBB last ? lol

Don't just listen to real property agents & developer bullcrap, use logic thinking. .
SUSjolokia
post Jan 5 2014, 12:43 PM

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QUOTE(HELLO HELLO @ Jan 5 2014, 12:15 PM)
Look like this year 2014 property going to fiercely fry again. Those think of get cheap in 2014 chances are slim... Lets it fry for another 2 years.. If dont keep frying... how it can collapse. Need to fry more fry hard for more than 2 years. Happy frying everyone.
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Already cooked now go into food warmer, too bad it's already passed lunch & dinner time most customers already full, soon it will be overcooked & burned. .lol

Overcooked food like those in Supermarket will go half price after 8-9pm..wakakaka

This post has been edited by jolokia: Jan 5 2014, 12:45 PM
SUSjolokia
post Jan 5 2014, 07:40 PM

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QUOTE(HELLO HELLO @ Jan 5 2014, 02:51 PM)
No worry!!! Lol..small percentage only. Not everyone can buy oversea. Still got many stuck here...  Heard some friends from big corporate..many of their coleg started to whack cheras and serdang area. And some ada sui abit go whack mk  n city centre Liao.

And ada banyak expat from China whack kl prop also 100% fully paid off by cash. Coz their homeland city house too expensive for them.

And the China government servant laundry money now transfer to HK to a so call "investment company" at hk n part of the money will come here to fry fry fry. 1 of my friend now dealing with them the HK "investment company". He still thinking want to accept the deal or not.
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Wow that very kind of to inform buyer should buy fast 2 before those rich China buyer come in any suggestions which "particular" project or subsales we should "concentrate" on ??
I also 'heard" a big group of buyer from Alaska, Artic & Greenland is very keen on buying Malaysia properties they complain their igloo is too small & cold, looking for a tropical country to stay during winter... lol
I am in the mid to set up a company to bring them here...rofl

This year most big corp give 300% pay rise & 24 months bonus so even their dispatch boy can afford 1 million ringgit property..wakakaka


SUSjolokia
post Jan 5 2014, 08:26 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jan 5 2014, 08:05 PM)
Any one out there who monitors the number of weekend advertisements -house/apartment for sale and for rent?

Thinking of doing that to get a feel on the RE market. Share the work and we review here?

Cheerio.
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Aiyoh bros nowadays people check websites like iproperty, ptopwall, propertyguru lah ! newspaper outdated lah, star property classified online maybe, very little people buy & read newspaper lah, online fast & free mah.
Advertised on newspaper targeting old folks to buy meh ? ...lol

But I do noticed nowadays iproperty also not much offer, mostly same old unit advertised for years over & over again but no takers, either real estate too easily sold no need advertising or advertised also no taker so hang fang.



SUSjolokia
post Jan 5 2014, 09:04 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Jan 5 2014, 08:42 PM)
Simple really...like everyone in this thread, UUU will say it will go up, DDD will say it goes down.

In short, wait lah, we should get a clearer picture by mid this year.l.
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It's like going to durian farm & walk under durian tree, you should ditch the moment you hear wind sound created by torn of falling durian, if you wait till you see the durian probably it will landed on your head...wakakaka

Buy mid of the year if price increase DDD camp would say by 2015 sure fall as GST implementation people no money, if price fall UUU camp sure said by 2015 GST implementation price sure go up as building materials price increased.

Forever people are waiting to see what they wish for become reality.

My guess pretty much similar to yugimudo, Stagnant, price sudden increase then fall/crash aka classic Bubble senario.
SUSjolokia
post Jan 6 2014, 12:49 PM

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QUOTE(diplomatik @ Jan 6 2014, 11:59 AM)
u see bubbles when everyone says there is no bubbles.. tongue.gif
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Or when everyone says there is bubble mean in fact there is no bubble..lol

QUOTE(cranx @ Jan 6 2014, 12:05 PM)
Prestige. just need to open your curtains and you will see that great symbol of Malaysia.
Good to impress chicks as well.
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I thought when there is chicks in the house not suppose to open curtains brows.gif

I really don't understand why people pay premium just to have a view for the twin jagung from balcony. .sigh



SUSjolokia
post Jan 6 2014, 06:22 PM

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QUOTE(zephyrus9999 @ Jan 6 2014, 05:39 PM)
im not sure if the "classic bubble scenario" works on props as the market is not as volatile as you see in gold, forex or stocks. Gold yes, increase increase increase, everyone got fever and sudden spike in price before crash. lol. In props even if it drop, it will not crash in 1 week or so. it follows a sinusoidal wave pattern. it may take several months for it to drop 10%, slowly and slowly. By the time it reaches "low" enough that some perceive it, it may get snapped by pipu. Property is a long term thing and is not like paper gold or bitcoin, worthless.

Well i dunno for u all, my cousin whose retired at 40 multi millionare property investor (also lucky to born at the time such that 1999-2013 property uptrend can sapu alot lol) said, it definitely will not crash, but may do some correction. landed are still perceived to be valuable and maybe gg to super high end high rise. Too much supply, but not many increament in expats = vacant. Rent oso susah. Even if crash, very fast can pick up back. And ppl are too obsessed about developer launches lol. Worship them like God and feeding them with money only haha.

Also, poor buggers always complain about the system. Successful people only keep quiet bcoz its not their problem. Always thrs a hierarchy in society man. Where you fail and whine to have 500k to buy a house, thrs some1 behind sapu 5 of them :/

well.. in such time personally i think go for landed, and most important is holding power
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1st classic joke.
When ever i heard this i have a friend or i know someone who very sucessful in property fliiping never make any losses gain million & million playing property, i was thinking what the hack is these top 40 richest malaysia doing every day in office still strugering at old age ? why not just buy & sell few property & reitre at 40 enjoying life ?? hmm.gif

Second classic joke there is alway someone who is richer than you willing to buy property at any price seller want. laugh.gif

Why those richer than me bugger never buy oil when it reach USD 148 ? Why they never continue to buy gold at previous peek price & let gold price fall ? why never continue buy share & let our stock market fall after year end record high ? Why why why if these rich fellow continue to buy now my property would have reach 10 folds price & i too can as declare multi millionaire ? whistling.gif

Why lah no rich fellow sapu 5 Bukit Beruntung & Semenyih landed at one go, save those who bought & stucked there lah. shakehead.gif

I am waiting for some rich white knight to offer me 10 millions for my landed too, then i mah can retired loh, so tired waking up 5:30am every day to work lah.. cry.gif



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