some IBs estimated that.
only becomes realistic when it happens.
last year, also got IBs estimate 2013 will up interest rate, but so far nothing happen as they now busy downgrading their previous GDP forecast.

This post has been edited by yok70: Oct 10 2013, 09:34 PM

the question now is, how many people dare to touch REITs now after watching its scary sell down recently? they may still keep their cash in FD exactly the same when REIT's yield too low that time.
like what u like to say, the story always repeats itself. very few people able to make profit in investment in long term.

This post has been edited by yok70: Oct 10 2013, 11:17 PM

world bond market seems coming back....US economy flat, not as encouraging as some expected, which means tapering may delay further....
after oct 25th budget, i expect malaysia bond also will come back...
if my expectation was correct, then reit may come back....valuation shouldn't be as high as before, but may see moderate recovery for those reporting improve earnings....
just my wild guess, pls judge your own.

Just wild guess, I also scare of REITs now.
Ya, I mean, previous high valuation period, net yield was compressed to 4-4.5% for REITs with best assets quality. And now, they are 5-5.5%. I bet if those REITs that able to increase income by 5-8% ahead, got a chance to stay at valuation at 5-5.5% net yield, which gives room for some capital gain.

that would be jewel of REIT.
hektar has been above 6% net all the time, but investors worry on its assets quality (less popular malls at less popular location).
sunreit may see good earning jump in 1.5-2 yrs time after Putra Mall reopen.
igbreit and pavreit continues organic growth by re-arrangement of its rental space smartly. Garden Mall's visitors are obviously increasing in past 1+ year, rental increment is hopeful. Pavreit has low gearing, it's good for future acquisition on Pavilion extension.
Excellent Axreit management team, but I sold all between 3.30-3.75 since yield compressed below my like. Plan to re-enter at 3.10 but still can't get. It's lack of foreign holdings I guess, so not enough selling pressure.

why say victim of stareit? this one exercise details still all unclear. this is a good example of a stock not covered by any IB, so no expert help us to dig info. And we all minority shareholders lazy to attend AGM to ask question.
if earnings raise, i don't mind stareit share price not move, i just collect more and more dividend loh.

i've no confident on arreit management. Their performance in past few years is disappointing. I won't buy this reit even if yield is high. please judge your own, just my view.

US 10-yr bond falls to 2.5x% now.

I bet those who sold bonds massively when tapering talk that time are now holding too much cash with nothing much to do with it (in US and developed countries, interest rate is practically 0). With a hope for stronger USD for delaying tapering, so buy US bond.

We need a "rating agencies favor" budget on Oct 25 to attract FF back into our bond market. Only then can benefit M-REIT.

I wish the stabilize level is 2.00-2.20 by end-2014.

This post has been edited by yok70: Oct 22 2013, 10:43 PM

Indo fund...just follow sifu Gark's call will do.

no need golden age anymore, just give me steady 5% gain will do. (5% capital gain + 5% div = 10% profit)

if can reach 3%, we huat loh!
but i no expect for that lah.
just wish 10yr MGS at 3.5%, reit's income increase by average 5% pa for the next 5 years. After that, if stay flat, i keep. If drop, can start selling and move to other investments.

sell now seems a little late as you are still in paper loss.
just close eyes and receive dividend. if 1 yr gives you 5%, 2 yrs gives 10% already. should be more than cover your paper loss right? and if you are lucky, after 2 years, maybe paper gain already.

"stop mode" for now. feel comfortable at currently around 30% on REIT with net yield 5.2-6.6% at current market price. If REIT rally, I may continue to cut more holdings on REITs with lower growth potential.
today just grabbed a little bit more Pavreit.

today 10-yr MGS yield dropped sharply to 3.65, inline with yesterday's US 10-yr bond's yield sharp drop. Hopefully can reach 3.2-3.3%.

US 10-yr bond yield 2.4x already....

not care tomorrow.
care next week, next month, even next year.

so far so good.

10-yr MSG yield drops further to 3.60 today.

oh, it hit above 4% in August this year.

if you expectation is to get 5% dividend a year and do not plan to sell it in next few years, then I bet it won't make you regret. Otherwise, it may.