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 REIT V5, Real Estate Investment Trust

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yok70
post Dec 4 2013, 01:30 PM

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QUOTE(Agent 592 @ Dec 4 2013, 08:40 AM)
thought the fund is used to pay off debt they used to buy overseas hotel?
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yes. nod.gif
yok70
post Dec 4 2013, 05:02 PM

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QUOTE(Agent 592 @ Dec 4 2013, 04:46 PM)
it seems like its not error for axis, the price went up to 3.3 den back to 3.22 again
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i switched some of my igbreit into axreit today, as they both same yield now, and i expect axreit to have better growth potential as compare to igbreit in the next 3 years. cool2.gif
yok70
post Dec 4 2013, 05:16 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Dec 4 2013, 05:05 PM)
I beg to differ, IGB should have better growth, Axreit is already fully leveraged up to the hit. IGB reit D/A ratio is still very low, can acquire more properties using loan, no need to resort to private placement and rights issue.
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IGBreit management pointed out that they do not intend for any acquisition in the near to mid term, they will just focus on organic growth in Midvalley and Garden. I bet their next acquisition can only be the Johor megamall, which will only happen in 5-8 years time when the earning stabilized after finished building it.

Axreit has the benefit of highly diversified smaller scale properties, which provide room for selling some of those which yield lower for their like. As property price are higher than before, we can get special dividend for the profit earned. In pass few years, we see this happened at least 2 times if i remember correctly. And if not paying us special dividend, they can use the money received from disposal to acquire new assets with better yield. Flexibility is there, unlike shopping mall reit which need huge money for any acquisition as malls are expensive large size asset.

Just some thoughts. laugh.gif
yok70
post Dec 4 2013, 05:18 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Dec 4 2013, 05:16 PM)
Private placement will dilute holdings of existing holders AFAIK
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if you just look at DPU increment, you need not care about dilution anymore. The increment has been higher than the dilution that's why DPU has been increasing despite dilution. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 4 2013, 05:19 PM
yok70
post Dec 4 2013, 05:20 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Dec 4 2013, 05:08 PM)
Yes...dunno what happened doh.gif

my biggest losign counter now...ironic. My unknown stocks are most profitable lol
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me too actually.
my short term goreng stocks mostly profit, and my long term famous stocks mostly laggard. tongue.gif
yok70
post Dec 4 2013, 05:39 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Dec 4 2013, 05:29 PM)
Yeah different thought.. i look at the risk factor as well. I tend to avoid highly leveraged REIT as you will not know when the debts comes calling.  laugh.gif I prefer safety for Reits rather than active management, if I want active management I will buy stocks instead.

High leverage equals to high DPU, but carries more risk as well. Devaluation of property can push D/A ratio over the legal limit hence need to raise capital. So is rising yields, which will impact a highly leveraged reit first. A loower leverage reit will able to weather this problem better.

Example of the SGX reits which were highly leveraged, all hit with revolving debt/ debt service problem during 2008, and  need to raise capital suddenly, end up selling their reit for cheap? I would not want to be an unit holder position during that time.  whistling.gif
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Thanks for pointing that out, agree with you that high leverage = higher risk, especially many have been talking about interest rate hike non-stop (Cherroy may jump out again and denied interest rate hike in near to mid term tongue.gif ).

Anyway, WB said ‘Stop trying to predict the direction of the stock market, the economy, interest rates, or elections.’ tongue.gif



This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 4 2013, 05:40 PM
yok70
post Dec 4 2013, 07:02 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Dec 4 2013, 05:43 PM)
No need for BNM interest rate hike. Most REIT use revolving credit, MTN and fixed rate instruments, those are affected by MGS yield. Some even have sukuk or bonds, which is even more affected by MGS yields.

BNM can keep interest rate low, but as yields goes up, REIT's cost of capital will increase as well.  wink.gif
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gearing (roughly):
low: pavreit 20%, igbreit 25%
mid: axreit and sunreit 35%
high: hektar 45%

nod.gif
yok70
post Dec 4 2013, 08:47 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Dec 4 2013, 07:58 PM)
Homework homework! Gotta do your homework rolleyes.gif
So they will likely issue additional ~310 mil units under PP to YTL corp and another ~490 mil units to other identified investor.

So 800 mil additional new shares to existing 1.34 billion shares.. means after the PP, exisitng shareholder will be diluted to 64% of their holdings.  wink.gif

BUT new properties will add more income, depends if the new income is able to cover the dilution is the biggest worry AND the 60% D/A maximum.. sweat.gif
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Which means there is dilution definitely, the management just mean no DPU decrease on this exercise. But shareholders expect DPU increment after purchasing the 3 Marriott hotels in Australia. When I bought Stareit that time, I thought it's cash rich and need not much fund raising for the acquisition then DPU may increase tremendously. So we can only expect about 5-6% yield instead of 8-9% yield for FY14? 5-6% yield is not pretty for a high risk hotel reit. On my research note, I did put down two yield numbers on stareit (5.5% or 8.5%). hmm.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 4 2013, 08:49 PM
yok70
post Dec 4 2013, 10:23 PM

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QUOTE(CP88 @ Dec 4 2013, 09:49 PM)
Can't sell thn avg lor.  laugh.gif

We're in the same boat  rolleyes.gif
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Cannot, we must not get emotional in stock trading.
Stick to my plan: continue to reduce REITs on rally. No adding. Switching among one another is acceptable. tongue.gif
Now still at 30% of total portfolio, still too high. Next target is reduce to 25%. laugh.gif
yok70
post Dec 5 2013, 12:39 PM

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QUOTE(IEE @ Dec 5 2013, 11:33 AM)
given of choice of AMFIRST, ARREIT and STAREIT which is around the same price, given a 50K fund, which one would you invest?
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if you said around the same yield, make more sense.
share price should not be any concern at all.
smile.gif
yok70
post Dec 5 2013, 01:20 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Dec 5 2013, 01:00 PM)
Yields also not equal  hmm.gif

Let say FD yields  3% x 5 yrs = 15 % low

1) REITS yield 5% x5 = 25% High
( but Minus Capital  loss = 15% hidden ) net is 10% over 5 years

Many foumers still say REITS are far better than FDs in yields ...........but I say it depends on the timing (how long ago )  u buy ......

BTW FD yield is almost certain and could be better in the future , but can REITS break the 4 % barrier  ?

That is why most forumers  say reits investors say Capital loss is secondary, is it really true ? or rather self assured.......
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got forumers say reits capital loss is secondary? who? rclxub.gif
yok70
post Dec 5 2013, 02:21 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Dec 5 2013, 01:48 PM)
Well first thing first, it is often said that Capital element like Capital Gain is only secondary when investing in reits.......

In a way, new comers may think there is very low chance of a capital loss aka part of a Capital element ......

Though there  seemed to be unspoken words ( or rather hidden )  of Capital Loss Concern  here to show,   BUT  actually many actions taken by the forumers proved that they were relatively unconcerned about Capital Loss in the first place........

One good example is whenever REITS traded at Peak Prices ( few months ago )  and just drops a mere 3 SEN or so, many jumped in joy of going to sapu at 3sen opportunity gain  ........in other words , no fear of further Capital Loss at all.

( Well, concern starts to surface after maybe after a 15 to 20% drop from the peaks  hmm.gif )

Gark and I sounded out about the impact of Fed Tapering, but mostly forumers regarded as noises....( so no concern , right ?  )

What I say is more of the actions taken by the forumers than the actual spoken words .....

In my stock analysis , I learn about unspoken words ( hinting )  of CEO in the reports too to judge the future Directions of a company .

My apology if I offend any one of you ...... notworthy.gif
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Why you so worry on offended who and who as always? This is just a discussion forum, so we all discuss things here. That's all. There is no right or wrong, just discussion only. biggrin.gif

You are right, we did being too ignorant that time and jumped in reits at high price. What Gark just said was clear: timing (aka valuation) is always important for either stock or reit, they are the same. Lesson learnt so now I'm much more careful on reits. However, I do also think that reit is still consider less risky investment if the reit has great management and great asset class mainly due to my optimism in local property market for long term.

In recent weeks, we just see more and more newbies chase high on those already rally stocks for unknown/uncertain reasons just because some seniors mentioned those stocks. Not many newbies care to look at reits nowadays anyway. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 5 2013, 02:36 PM
yok70
post Dec 5 2013, 02:45 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Dec 5 2013, 02:41 PM)
[attachmentid=3754542]

hmm...  hmm.gif
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ya...what do you think? biggrin.gif
yok70
post Dec 5 2013, 02:48 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Dec 5 2013, 02:45 PM)
so the MGS already peack..

Fed Qe tapering again still got impact ??? maybe those foreign fund
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it's tricky. either peak, or about to breakout. biggrin.gif
US payroll numbers are pretty, so that scares the market. nowadays, good news are bad news. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 5 2013, 02:49 PM
yok70
post Dec 5 2013, 03:04 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Dec 5 2013, 02:53 PM)
That's why hmmm.... lets look at further out.... tongue.gif

Previous peaks was 5%.. so no.. we are not at the peak, but already near multi year average.. there still could be further downside, but the risk is lower now compared to buying near the bottom during 2011-2012.  rolleyes.gif

[attachmentid=3754556]
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between 4 to 5, take average at 4.5%.
that would be a 12.5% loss risk from current 4%. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 5 2013, 03:05 PM
yok70
post Dec 5 2013, 05:06 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Dec 5 2013, 05:04 PM)
Yes for BNM to adjust interest rates they will need to see the impact from MGS yields, monetary policy,  inflation, state of the economy, trade deficits etc etc. Everything i connected to each other and everything influences everything. Thats what makes macro economics so hard to predict.  laugh.gif

For example in Indonesia interest rates have been steadily rise from 5.25% to now 7.5%, the 10 year govt yield is actually leading the way and moving ahead of the interest rate rise. (ie spike before BI adjust the rate to correct the 'imbalance')
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where Fed leads the world rates. laugh.gif
yok70
post Dec 5 2013, 06:14 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Dec 5 2013, 06:08 PM)
As you can see now Malaysia MGS yield has also run ahead of BNM.. MGS yield went up from 3.2% to now 4.1%, which BNM overnight rates is still 3%. This is the same as what happen to Indo govt yields before BI decide to raise interest rate.

For retail lending purpose, yes, BNM rates are used as reference as in BLR.

For commercial lending purpose like MTN, sukuk, fixed rate instruments, interest rate swaps, commercial bonds, perpetual bonds, revolving credit actually use MGS yield is used as reference and not BNM overnight rates. As evidently can be seen in 1st tranche sukuk at 4% and later 2nd tranche at 4.58% even though BNM over night rates still stay the same.

Not everything can be based on BNM rates, sometimes the market adjust it self faster than BNM.  Hence we observe govt bond yield to see further down the curve. wink.gif
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great info, thanks! notworthy.gif

so in short, watch MGS yield for market speculative trend, and BLR for real economic status. icon_rolleyes.gif
yok70
post Dec 5 2013, 09:27 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Dec 5 2013, 07:49 PM)
Asset Deflation associate more with Advance Economies than let say with emerging economies , probably due to HIGH GEARING  per se. Through Gearing , assets can be produced in masses . And with Easy Credits, making it worse...

The end result, risk goes up after something " wrong "  happened to Gearing along the way i.e cashflow problems

My reason for higher yields for Singapore reits cos they are of higher risks  ( economy class/ gearing ) , and hence faster  Asset deflation problems .

What do you think ? Sounds Logic ?
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But I thought Singapore's debt is only for currency/inflation control? Singapore's gomen has been in profit all these years as its "gearing" is just to generate more money, just like WB takes easy cash from its own insurance assets to leverage more investments and generates more profit than its capital capable of. I do not know much detail of Singapore's economy condition actually, just read some articles only. So you think Singapore's economy class is weak? hmm.gif


yok70
post Dec 5 2013, 10:05 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Dec 5 2013, 09:41 PM)
Singapore Govt is rich, but I refer to Singapore REITs which I think ( might be wrong ) as weak.

What I know of WB bought lot of abandoned properties at the time when market shunned it.

What I say generally Gearing and easy credits are popular tools to build wealth in Advance Economy aka the private sectors  , not saying it is bad.

But when economy takes a bad turn, cashflow problems may surface . So asset deflation becomes more severe when everyone is looking for buyers .......if they cannot find more Gearing.....

Certainly some companies are cash rich like Apple, but not generally across the board type.
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I thought you mean Singapore economy, since I checked a few Singapore reits, their gearing seem reasonable. Roughly on their gearing, Suntec reit 35%, Ascendas REIT 30%, Frasers Centrepoint Trust 31% etc.

Ya, I agree with your point that cashflow capability remains a risk when time is bad.

I was thinking probably Singapore property price is at high edge now, that put reits value at risk. On the other hand, I still consider Malaysia property price moderate, not high (yet). And also, Bursa is not as mature as Singapore market, so valuation (aka sensitivity of immediate yield spread on reits) is more up-to-date in Singapore than in Bursa. We are 2 months slower to move as happening this year. unsure.gif




yok70
post Dec 5 2013, 11:06 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Dec 5 2013, 10:36 PM)
Ya as I say,  Advance economies  like Japan and  HK reacted fast to Dow movements.

But then again, Dow could fall due to good economic Data , like what u say ....

Why, Gearing n cashflow are a concern due to Tapering........The word Tapering is not so severe as " totally stop " yet asset deflation by Billions or trillions worldwide......

That is why I like Net cash companies, but still cannot afford to buy Apple shares.....a distant dream maybe
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Why not? We can always buy 1 Apple share, only cost less than RM2k. biggrin.gif


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