Some people started investing in gold when price was below US$900/oz over 15 years ago and his average price is believed to be under water as of today, what make novice will be better off?

Why weird?

Gold is on downward trend, why keep gold?


Getting news from wrong source can be worst than having no news.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Oct 20 2013, 01:30 AM

Gold boosted by US deal as short-sellers scramble

By Neil Hume in London

Gold enjoyed its biggest one-day gain in a month as traders scrambled to cover short positions following a temporary deal to avoid a historic US debt default. Bullion rallied 3.2 per cent to $1,322 a troy ounce and drew further support from a weak US dollar.

Thursday’s bounce is the latest in a series of volatile moves for the precious metal, caused by a string of unusually large trades. Liberum Capital reckons 2m ounces of gold has been dumped in the market over the past week as short sellers started to ”test the water”. Analysts said some of those positions had been covered on Thursday following the last minute deal in the US Congress, which suspends the debt ceiling until February.

“Gold is failing to attract new longs in the futures market, which is an ongoing concern,” he said. “Furthermore, the risk of more Exchange Traded Fund liquidation must have increased now that uncertainty around a US default has eased.”

Data released on Wednesday showed holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange fund, had fallen a further 3.6m tonnes to a four-year low of just over 885 tonnes.

Gold exchange traded funds, which hold physical bullion on behalf of investors, have experienced significant redemptions this year. Outflows for the year to date now stand at more than 700 tonnes and metals held in trust are at their lowest level since May 2010, according to Barclays.

More recently, bullion has also struggled to find support from the physical market, with Indian importers still hesitant to process orders and China’s gold market, a powerful prop for prices this year, subdued.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4dfb11a4-37...l#axzz2iF3GjZ5D

As if price movement is predictable, then you should be making millions $ every month or week.

This strategy only work when the market is on bull run and volatile, not sure current trend is applicable.

Most gold investors include those who started over 15 years ago are losing money and on downward trend, why need to invest in gold?

Gold, which was at $1,245.90 an ounce on the Comex at 4:33 p.m. in Singapore, will drop $1,050 at the end of next year, Goldman said in the report, restating an earlier forecast. Currie said last month that gold is a “slam dunk” sell for next year as the U.S. economy extends its recovery.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-21/g...re-in-2014.html

Since gold is on the downward trend, instead of buying gold, why not consider put option?

You should have gone short since last year.

May be you like to explain why gold price is dropping?

Similarly true for commodity like silver, tins, copper, aluminum, oil, palm oil, etc except that gold doesn't have much industrial use.

If some gold is 'bought to existence' out of thin air, then gold is good as fiat money

If gold price is defying logic, then when do you invest or should at all?

For those who bought gold in the last few years, believe their gold holding loss a lot more than RM depreciation.




This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 26 2013, 01:00 AM

Gold doesn't generate any return or dividend and gold price is not correlated to inflation, there is no guarantee wealth can be preserved with gold.

Then why gold is on downward trend not up? Buying gold is not unlike gambling. May be you can enlighten us in contemporary history when did gold win over paper currency?

Likewise for other minerals like copper, aluminum. However, 90% of gold produced are still in circulation and available for recycle, the more it is mined, the higher the chance it will devalue.

USD1200 ~ USD1150 is more likely.

Gold supply bear no relation to the needs of the economy. The supply of gold depends on what can be mined.

In the 16th Century, the discovery of South America and its vast gold deposits led to an enormous fall in the value of gold - and therefore an enormous increase in the price of everything else.

Since then, the problem has typically been the opposite - the supply of gold has been too rigid. For example, many countries escaped the Great Depression in the 1930s by unhitching their currencies from the Gold Standard. Doing so freed them up to print more money and reflate their economies.

The demand for gold can vary wildly - and with a fixed supply, that can lead to equally wild swings in its price.

Most recently for example, the price has gone from $260 per troy ounce in 2001, to peak at $1,921.15 in September 2011, before falling back to $1,230 currently.

That is hardly the behaviour of a stable store of value.

So, to paraphrase Churchill, out of all the elements, gold makes the worst possible currency.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25255957

This apply to most if not all gold investors unfortunately

Tried to convince people to get out years ago but failed cause people were making profit at that time and super confidence will make more

If QE is the reason that fuelled the last gold bull run, gold price should be continue on upward trend but is not.

Most if not all own gold, if take short will go against their gold holding.

For the record as at end of 31st Dec 2013;
Gold price 1,199.40/oz

My bet in 2014; gold price is continue on the downward trend and may touch $1,000 mark.

Current price is below usd1,300/oz.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 13 2014, 04:44 PM