My Own Research
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 Jul 24 2013, 09:39 PM, updated 10y ago
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#1
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011 
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PBBANK – Q2 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1357137) on 23 Jul 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2013/07...ank-q2-2013.pdf or more (http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/) |
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Jul 24 2013, 09:40 PM
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#2
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DIGI – Q2 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1354529) on 19 Jul 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/digi-q2-2013.pdf or more (http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/) |
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Jul 24 2013, 09:41 PM
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#3
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Junior Member
140 posts Joined: Jul 2013
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impressive !! you did it yourself ?
 QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Jul 24 2013, 09:39 PM) PBBANK – Q2 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1357137) on 23 Jul 2013 Analysis Report – http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2013/07...ank-q2-2013.pdf or more (http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/)  |
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Jul 24 2013, 09:44 PM
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#4
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Senior Member
7,142 posts Joined: Oct 2008 From: Sin City  
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Jul 24 2013, 09:39 PM) PBBANK – Q2 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1357137) on 23 Jul 2013 Analysis Report – http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2013/07...ank-q2-2013.pdf or more (http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/) QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Jul 24 2013, 09:40 PM) DIGI – Q2 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1354529) on 19 Jul 2013 Good Analysis Report – http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/digi-q2-2013.pdf or more (http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/) Thanks for the research  |
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Jul 24 2013, 09:55 PM
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#5
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All Stars
17,875 posts Joined: Jan 2005
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Good report. TS can setup a research house.
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Jul 24 2013, 10:24 PM
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#6
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Senior Member
984 posts Joined: Nov 2008
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Thanks for more info
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Jul 24 2013, 11:08 PM
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#7
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Junior Member
257 posts Joined: Dec 2012 From: Klang
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Wow.. Thanks for sharing =)) awesome
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Jul 25 2013, 08:35 AM
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#8
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Senior Member
3,816 posts Joined: Feb 2012
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QUOTE(kb2005 @ Jul 24 2013, 09:55 PM) Good report. TS can setup a research house. If need assistants please hire me  |
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Jul 25 2013, 08:40 PM
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#9
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Senior Member
503 posts Joined: Jun 2008
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unless you're just trying to churn out data like sell-side research, your theses lack analysis into the economics of the business(es) and catalysts / divergent views from the market
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Jul 26 2013, 09:49 AM
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All Stars
17,053 posts Joined: Jan 2003
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QUOTE DIGI coverage is still not as good as MAXIS and CELCOM, but DIGI makes great efforts to improve their network. Really his own thought! But sadly they are not making and effort to improve it |
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Jul 26 2013, 10:50 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Thanks. Since Jun 2013 (after they upgraded few thousands of statiins) , I have much better experience in using data services, and I don't experience call drop while driving.
You may have different experience. That's alright. This post has been edited by lcchong76: Jul 26 2013, 10:52 AM |
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Jul 26 2013, 12:39 PM
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All Stars
23,851 posts Joined: Dec 2006
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Jul 26 2013, 10:50 AM) Thanks. Since Jun 2013 (after they upgraded few thousands of statiins) , I have much better experience in using data services, and I don't experience call drop while driving. Good analysis that u have. You may have different experience. That's alright.  I see many forumers talk about the bad services from DIGI . But the point is " how good the returns are " if u invested for a long term in DIGI . Capex do not necessarily have good yields, Let say in MAS or YTL Yes case. As a consumer. I might say MAS had good services too....... What is very good to the consumers do not equate with that of the investors per se. So see yourself as a consumer or investor , up to u lah.  This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Jul 26 2013, 12:45 PM |
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Jul 26 2013, 12:50 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jul 26 2013, 12:39 PM) Good analysis that u have. totally agree I see many forumers talk about the bad services from DIGI . But the point is " how good the returns are " if u invested for a long term in DIGI . Capex do not necessarily have good yields, Let say in MAS or YTL Yes case. As a consumer. I might say MAS had good services too....... What is very good to the consumers do not equate with that of the investors per se. So see yourself as a consumer or investor , up to u lah. |
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Jul 27 2013, 09:12 AM
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All Stars
17,100 posts Joined: Mar 2005
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Jul 26 2013, 12:50 PM) totally agree i am wondering are you that Mr CC Hong whi gave us training on charting and ...in nanyang? if yes, thanks as i loved your 3 buddha charts. sifu ... |
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Jul 27 2013, 12:12 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Jul 27 2013, 09:12 AM) i am wondering are you that Mr CC Hong whi gave us training on charting and ...in nanyang? if yes, thanks as i loved your 3 buddha charts. sifu ... Oh, I am not CC Hong |
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Jul 27 2013, 12:40 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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BAT – Q2 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1360233) on 25 Jul 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/bat-q2-2013.pdf or more (http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/) This post has been edited by lcchong76: Jul 27 2013, 12:46 PM |
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Jul 27 2013, 06:03 PM
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Senior Member
984 posts Joined: Nov 2008
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Jul 26 2013, 10:50 AM) Thanks. Since Jun 2013 (after they upgraded few thousands of statiins) , I have much better experience in using data services, and I don't experience call drop while driving. Last week, my child who was holidaying in Club Med Bali could not connect my mobile phone. Both my child and my mobile phone is using Digi line. She has to borrow her friend's mobile phone using 012 line which was able to connect to my mobile.You may have different experience. That's alright. |
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Jul 27 2013, 06:59 PM
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All Stars
17,100 posts Joined: Mar 2005
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QUOTE(iceypain @ Jul 25 2013, 08:40 PM) unless you're just trying to churn out data like sell-side research, your theses lack analysis into the economics of the business(es) and catalysts / divergent views from the market a thesis is a thesis. got it? |
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Jul 31 2013, 02:51 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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HAIO – Q4 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1333169) on 26 Jun 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2013/07...-estimation.pdf or more (http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/) I have updated my previous analysis on HAIO to reflect my reason of buying HAIO. The reason is the directors were buying HAIO heavily. This shows that the management of the company got high confidence on company prospects. This post has been edited by lcchong76: Jul 31 2013, 02:52 PM |
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Jul 31 2013, 02:57 PM
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Senior Member
3,459 posts Joined: Jan 2009
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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Jul 27 2013, 09:12 AM) i am wondering are you that Mr CC Hong whi gave us training on charting and ...in nanyang? if yes, thanks as i loved your 3 buddha charts. sifu ... Looking at his username, he should be Mr. LC Chong. |
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Aug 5 2013, 11:47 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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AEON – Q1 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1294617) on 22 May 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/aeon-q1-2013.pdf or more (http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/) My wife asked me to monitor this stock for her. She has 20000++ units of AEON at 3.98 (average price). Her fundamental analysis used from 2002 to 2005 was a lot of people shopped in Jaya Jusco if compare to Parkson and Metrojaya. Simple, but powerful analysis. |
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Aug 5 2013, 04:56 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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CCMDBIO – Q1 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1298933) on 27 May 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2013/08...bio-q1-2013.pdf or more (http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/) Although CCMDBIO is very rich with cash flow and very strong in generating cash flow from earnings, CCMDBIO loss momentum in earnings. It is less attractive as of now even if rich in cash flow. I will put CCMDBIO in Reserve List first. |
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Aug 5 2013, 05:04 PM
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Senior Member
1,216 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Cut Throat Land
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you do all that?
thank for sharing |
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Aug 6 2013, 11:59 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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SUNWAY – Q1 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1305209) on 30 May 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2013/08...way-q1-2013.pdf or more (http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/) |
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Aug 16 2013, 12:06 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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NOTION – Q3 2012 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1377309) on 15 Aug 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2013/08...ion-q3-2012.pdf or more (http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/) This post has been edited by lcchong76: Aug 16 2013, 12:07 PM |
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Aug 19 2013, 09:49 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Aug 16 2013, 12:06 PM) NOTION – Q3 2012 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1377309) on 15 Aug 2013 NOTION – Q3 2012 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1377309) on 15 Aug 2013Analysis Report – http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2013/08...ion-q3-2012.pdf or more (http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/) Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/08/19/no...is-19-aug-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ I made some mistakes in extracting financial data from NOTION annual reports. The mistake caused wrong valuation in DCF. I have fixed the data in this analysis. |
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Aug 20 2013, 10:08 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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AFFIN – Q2 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1379097) on 19 Aug 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/af...is-20-aug-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ |
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Aug 22 2013, 02:48 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DIALOG – Q4 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1381109) on 20 Aug 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/08/22/di...is-22-aug-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ |
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Aug 22 2013, 02:59 PM
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Junior Member
98 posts Joined: Dec 2012
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sifoo, can u teach me how to pick & sell stock like value investing method?plx plx
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Aug 22 2013, 04:03 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(tzmon @ Aug 22 2013, 02:59 PM) sifoo, can u teach me how to pick & sell stock like value investing method?plx plx Perhaps, you can post some specific questions. |
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Aug 22 2013, 05:06 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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AIRASIA – Q2 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1382517) on 21 Aug 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/08/22/ai...is-22-aug-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ |
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Aug 23 2013, 12:31 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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AHEALTH – Q2 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1382017) on 23 Aug 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/08/23/ah...is-23-aug-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ |
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Aug 23 2013, 02:01 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PETGAS – Q2 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1383421) on 22 Aug 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/08/23/pe...is-23-aug-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ |
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Aug 23 2013, 11:11 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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MAYBANK – Q2 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1381585) on 21 Aug 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/08/23/ma...is-23-aug-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ |
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Aug 24 2013, 02:40 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Aug 24 2013, 02:45 PM
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Senior Member
1,111 posts Joined: Nov 2011 From: at Malaysia 
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got westsports malaysia sdn bhd report?
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Aug 24 2013, 08:33 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(meistsh_musical @ Aug 24 2013, 02:45 PM) got westsports malaysia sdn bhd report? Westports is not in my watch list  |
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Aug 25 2013, 12:26 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QL – Q1 2014 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1383217) on 21 Aug 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/08/25/ql...is-25-aug-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ I will move QL to the Reverse List. |
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Aug 25 2013, 08:42 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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JTINTER – Q2 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1384405) on 21 Aug 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/08/25/jt...is-25-aug-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ |
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Aug 25 2013, 09:25 PM
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Senior Member
1,111 posts Joined: Nov 2011 From: at Malaysia
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woh u focus all good share
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Aug 25 2013, 10:22 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DELEUM – Q2 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1384109) on 21 Aug 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/08/25/de...is-25-aug-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ |
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Aug 28 2013, 09:12 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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CARLSBG – Q2 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1384109) on 21 Aug 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/08/28/ca...is-28-aug-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ |
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Aug 29 2013, 10:46 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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CCMDBIO – Q2 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1390741) on 28 Aug 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/08/29/cc...is-29-aug-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ |
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Aug 30 2013, 09:50 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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AMWAY – Q2 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1392725) on 28 Aug 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/08/30/am...is-30-aug-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ |
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Aug 30 2013, 11:03 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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SUNWAY – Q2 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1392345) on 28 Aug 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/08/30/su...is-30-aug-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ |
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Aug 30 2013, 11:05 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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GENTING – Q2 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1393269) on 29 Aug 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/08/30/ge...is-30-aug-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ |
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Aug 31 2013, 02:25 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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AEON – Q2 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1393253) on 29 Aug 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/08/31/ae...is-31-aug-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ This post has been edited by lcchong76: Aug 31 2013, 02:27 PM |
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Aug 31 2013, 10:53 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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SIME – Q4 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1393649) on 29 Aug 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/08/31/si...is-31-aug-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ |
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Aug 31 2013, 11:42 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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AXIATA – Q2 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1393533) on 29 Aug 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/08/31/ax...is-31-aug-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ |
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Sep 11 2013, 03:22 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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BURSA – Updated analysis with new template: http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/09/11/bu...is-11-sep-2013/
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Sep 11 2013, 04:36 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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TENAGA – Updated analysis with new template: http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/09/11/te...is-11-sep-2013/
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Sep 11 2013, 09:12 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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BAT – Updated analysis with new template: http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/09/11/ba...is-11-sep-2013/
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Sep 11 2013, 09:39 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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HAIO – Updated analysis with new template: http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/09/11/ha...is-11-sep-2013/
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Sep 11 2013, 11:19 PM
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Senior Member
1,177 posts Joined: Nov 2007
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Your updates are always useful. Thanks for sharing this hard work.
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Sep 12 2013, 07:41 AM
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Senior Member
3,944 posts Joined: Jul 2008
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Can write one for parkson holdings?
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Sep 12 2013, 08:33 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(darkknight81 @ Sep 12 2013, 07:41 AM) Can write one for parkson holdings? I may look into it when I got time. |
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Sep 12 2013, 08:34 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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I thought I would have opportunities to buy some more stocks at bargain price, but looks like some big players revive KLSE. KLSE bounced at 200 SMA and the uptrend line. This is typical strong technical bounce back. Nice….
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Sep 12 2013, 08:42 AM
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Senior Member
735 posts Joined: Apr 2009 From: Malayshire
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This is quite good TS, keep it up
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Sep 12 2013, 11:14 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PBBANK – Updated analysis with new template: http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/09/12/pb...is-12-sep-2013/
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Sep 12 2013, 11:40 AM
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All Stars
12,273 posts Joined: Oct 2010
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Sep 12 2013, 08:34 AM) I thought I would have opportunities to buy some more stocks at bargain price, but looks like some big players revive KLSE. KLSE bounced at 200 SMA and the uptrend line. This is typical strong technical bounce back. Nice…. klse SO small................cornered by EPF et al |
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Sep 13 2013, 03:18 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DIGI – Updated analysis with new template: http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/09/13/di...is-13-sep-2013/
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Sep 20 2013, 11:34 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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HAIO – Q1 2014 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1412969) on 19 Sep 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/09/20/ha...is-20-sep-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ |
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Sep 20 2013, 11:41 AM
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Junior Member
69 posts Joined: Jul 2013
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thanks for your updates...
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Sep 26 2013, 01:28 PM
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Junior Member
92 posts Joined: Aug 2006
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thanks for sharing
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Sep 30 2013, 03:56 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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SCIENTX – Q4 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1418037) on 26 Sep 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/09/30/sc...is-26-sep-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ |
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Oct 1 2013, 08:40 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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KMLOONG – Q2 2014 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1420053) on 27 Sep 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/10/01/km...sis-1-oct-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ |
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Oct 1 2013, 08:43 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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HAIO – Q1 2014 Financial Report with FY13 Annual Report figures (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1412969 and http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...ements/1422357) on 1 Oct 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/10/01/ha...sis-1-oct-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ I have updated my analysis with updated figures in FY13 Annual Report. |
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Oct 11 2013, 07:05 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/10/11/dj...ound-at-200sma/
Despite all the jokes happening in US, DJI is still in very good shape of long term uptrend (refer the 1st figure). Today, DJI had technical rebound at 200SMA. Usually, indexes and stocks “respect” 200SMA as either support or resistance level. Besides, you also clearly see the resistance zone and the support zone from the 2nd chart too. So, in short or medium term, DJI have been ranging for many weeks. |
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Oct 13 2013, 10:55 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Oct 15 2013, 03:35 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Oct 19 2013, 05:17 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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BAT – Q3 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1436333) on 17 Oct 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/10/19/ba...is-19-oct-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ This post has been edited by lcchong76: Oct 19 2013, 05:19 PM |
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Oct 20 2013, 12:38 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Oct 20 2013, 11:03 AM
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Senior Member
2,455 posts Joined: Aug 2008 From: Malaysia
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Appreciate the hard work and effort, thx!
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Oct 22 2013, 09:56 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PBBANK – Q3 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1439181) on 22 Oct 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/10/22/pb...is-22-oct-2013/ or more (http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/) |
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Oct 24 2013, 01:27 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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BURSA – Q3 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1440845) on 23 Oct 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/10/24/bu...is-24-oct-2013/ or more (http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/) |
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Oct 24 2013, 01:45 PM
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Senior Member
6,356 posts Joined: Aug 2008
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hi lcchong76 ,
Need your help to publish scomie FA, thanks you very much |
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Oct 24 2013, 02:49 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(felixmask @ Oct 24 2013, 01:45 PM) hi lcchong76 , which scomie? got scomieS and scomieNNeed your help to publish scomie FA, thanks you very much |
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Oct 24 2013, 02:50 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Oct 24 2013, 03:31 PM
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Senior Member
6,356 posts Joined: Aug 2008
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Oct 24 2013, 02:49 PM) which scomie? got scomieS and scomieN scomieS |
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Oct 24 2013, 10:53 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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CSCENIC – Q2 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1381965) on 21 Aug 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/10/24/cs...is-24-oct-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ I have added CSCENIC to the Observation List. |
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Oct 25 2013, 12:53 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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CYPARK – Q3 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1422013) on 30 Sep 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/10/25/cy...is-25-oct-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ I have added CYPARK to the Observation List. |
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Oct 26 2013, 11:00 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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YEELEE – Q2 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1389597) on 28 Aug 2013
Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/10/26/ye...is-26-oct-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ I have added YEELEE to the Reserved List. - Although YEELEE is undervalued, I will not invest in YEELEE for following reasons: - No economic moat at all. - I did an informal survey to find out popularity of YEELEE's eagle oil, morningkiss and instant noodles. I asked my mother, mother in law, my wife, 5 other relatives and 4 colleagues that always cooking. Sadly to say, none of them use YEELEE's eagle. 2 of them never notice the eagle oil in supermarket. Few of them tried morningkiss before, but stopped using now. Some of them said YEELEE’s instant noodles not so nice. This means the competition is too high. People got plenty choices. - YEELEE is in price war with some competitors - I will still put YEELEE in the Reserved List because YEELEE obviously putting a lot of efforts and commitment to improve its market share, internal operation efficiencies, profit margin and financial condition. This post has been edited by lcchong76: Oct 27 2013, 12:21 PM |
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Oct 27 2013, 12:18 PM
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Junior Member
256 posts Joined: Nov 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Oct 26 2013, 11:00 PM) YEELEE – Q2 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1389597) on 28 Aug 2013 having no moat around wouldnt it make it a risky investment? you randomly asked 12 but none of them is using yeelee?Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/10/26/ye...is-26-oct-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/ I have added YEELEE to the Reserved List. - Although YEELEE is undervalued, I have no choice not to invest in YEELEE for following reasons: - No economic moat at all. - I did an informal survey to find out popularity of YEELEE's eagle oil, morningkiss and instant noodles. I asked my mother, mother in law, my wife, 5 other relatives and 4 colleagues that always cooking. Sadly to say, none of them use YEELEE's eagle. 2 of them never notice the eagle oil in supermarket. Few of them tried morningkiss before, but stopped using now. Some of them said YEELEE’s instant noodles not so nice. This means the competition is too high. People got plenty choices. - YEELEE is in price war with some competitors - I will still put YEELEE in the Reserved List because YEELEE obviously putting a lot of efforts and commitment to improve its market share, internal operation efficiencies, profit margin and financial condition. you bought this purely because its undervalued? |
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Oct 27 2013, 12:22 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(qazhang @ Oct 27 2013, 12:18 PM) having no moat around wouldnt it make it a risky investment? you randomly asked 12 but none of them is using yeelee? typed wrongly. should be "I will not invest ".you bought this purely because its undervalued? |
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Oct 27 2013, 12:24 PM
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Junior Member
256 posts Joined: Nov 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Oct 27 2013, 12:22 PM) typed wrongly. should be "I will not invest ".  oops my bad. too many negatives in that one sentence. learning a lot from your investment strategies and teachings, my friend. |
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Oct 28 2013, 11:13 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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WELLCAL Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/10/28/we...is-27-oct-2013/
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Oct 28 2013, 02:00 PM
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Junior Member
140 posts Joined: Jul 2013
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Thanks for sharing LC Chong !
Were you in icapital.biz seminar last weekend ? QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Oct 28 2013, 11:13 AM) |
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Oct 28 2013, 04:04 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(Purplewitch @ Oct 28 2013, 02:00 PM) Thanks for sharing LC Chong ! unfortunately, i was absence.Were you in icapital.biz seminar last weekend ? |
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Oct 28 2013, 09:52 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DIGI Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/10/28/di...is-28-oct-2013/
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Oct 31 2013, 10:11 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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TENAGA Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/10/31/te...is-31-oct-2013/
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Nov 1 2013, 03:16 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PETGAS Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/11/01/pe...sis-1-nov-2013/
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Nov 1 2013, 09:54 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Oil & Gas Counters: Add Deferred Income Taxes to Owner Earnings
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/11/01/oi...owner-earnings/ |
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Nov 1 2013, 11:35 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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GAB Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/11/01/ga...sis-1-nov-2013/
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Nov 2 2013, 02:50 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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SIME Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/11/02/si...sis-2-nov-2013/
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Nov 2 2013, 11:17 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Nov 3 2013, 11:31 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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GAB Analysis - http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/11/03/ga...sis-1-nov-2013/
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Nov 3 2013, 01:43 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DIALOG Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/11/03/di...sis-3-nov-2013/
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Nov 3 2013, 08:52 PM
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Senior Member
1,745 posts Joined: Jan 2013
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Wow..got oldtown n jobstreet analyst?
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Nov 3 2013, 11:21 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(woolei @ Nov 3 2013, 08:52 PM) Wow..got oldtown n jobstreet analyst? hi, not in my radar |
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Nov 4 2013, 02:05 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Nov 5 2013, 10:41 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Nov 6 2013, 12:56 PM
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Junior Member
30 posts Joined: Jan 2003
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Thank you for your hard work, TS.
I would be interested to know what you think of KSL (5038), if you have the time or inclination to look into it. Thanks |
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Nov 6 2013, 01:40 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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REIT Analysis–“Beta” Analysis on STAREIT
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/11/06/re...sis-on-stareit/ |
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Nov 8 2013, 10:32 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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GAB Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/11/08/ga...sis-8-nov-2013/
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Nov 9 2013, 12:16 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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AMWAY Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/11/09/am...sis-9-nov-2013/
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Nov 9 2013, 02:08 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Nov 14 2013, 11:48 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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NOTION analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/11/14/no...is-14-nov-2013/
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Nov 15 2013, 07:21 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Nov 17 2013, 02:30 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DELEUM Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/11/17/de...is-17-nov-2013/
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Nov 20 2013, 11:51 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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CARLSBG Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/11/20/ca...is-19-nov-2013/
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Nov 22 2013, 10:26 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DIALOG Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/11/22/di...is-22-nov-2013/
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Nov 23 2013, 03:27 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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AIRASIA Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/11/23/ai...is-20-nov-2013/
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Nov 24 2013, 09:51 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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JTINTER Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/11/24/jt...is-24-nov-2013/
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Nov 24 2013, 11:29 PM
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Junior Member
77 posts Joined: Nov 2006
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thanks for sharing.
btw, do u have analysis data for panamy & nestle? |
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Nov 25 2013, 04:30 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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NOTION Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/11/25/no...is-25-nov-2013/
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Nov 25 2013, 04:31 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(mrsmytb @ Nov 24 2013, 11:29 PM) thanks for sharing. I don't have that. My wife owned shares of PANAMY and NESTLE, so she keeping track both.btw, do u have analysis data for panamy & nestle? |
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Nov 26 2013, 01:06 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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CSCENIC Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/11/26/cs...is-26-nov-2013/
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Nov 26 2013, 01:22 PM
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Senior Member
16,872 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Nov 26 2013, 01:06 PM) Can provide direct PDF link? Office blocked all blogs and similar pages |
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Nov 27 2013, 02:57 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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WELLCAL Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/11/27/we...is-27-nov-2013/
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Nov 28 2013, 05:41 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Nov 29 2013, 11:52 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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AXIATA Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/11/29/ax...is-29-nov-2013/
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Nov 30 2013, 04:01 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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TENAGA Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/11/30/te...is-30-nov-2013/
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Dec 1 2013, 10:43 PM
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Junior Member
156 posts Joined: Apr 2013
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Hi bro,
do you have Hap Send and POS research for sharing? Cheers ! |
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Dec 3 2013, 11:17 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Dec 3 2013, 11:18 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(McHoong @ Dec 1 2013, 10:43 PM) Hi bro, Not in my radar.do you have Hap Send and POS research for sharing? Cheers ! |
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Dec 3 2013, 01:54 PM
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Senior Member
967 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: setapak
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how about next year IPO? Any advise?
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Dec 5 2013, 03:19 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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SIME Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/12/05/si...sis-5-dec-2013/
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Dec 5 2013, 03:19 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(-oc-gassa @ Dec 3 2013, 01:54 PM) how about next year IPO? Any advise? Hi, I don't invest in IPO |
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Dec 6 2013, 05:22 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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VITROX Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/12/06/vi...sis-6-dec-2013/
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Dec 7 2013, 11:36 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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SUNWAY Analysis - http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/12/07/su...sis-7-dec-2013/
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Dec 8 2013, 01:07 PM
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Senior Member
1,177 posts Joined: Nov 2007
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I know in a previous report that you have DELEUM on your watchlist and said you would buy it if there were a price correction. Do you think the price drop makes for enough of a correction now?
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Dec 8 2013, 07:09 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(wankongyew @ Dec 8 2013, 01:07 PM) I know in a previous report that you have DELEUM on your watchlist and said you would buy it if there were a price correction. Do you think the price drop makes for enough of a correction now? the correction is still not big enough. may be 3.6-3.8 |
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Dec 10 2013, 12:31 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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SCIENTX Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/12/10/sc...is-10-dec-2013/
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Dec 13 2013, 11:40 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Excel Template for Banks: http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/12/13/ex...late-for-banks/
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Dec 13 2013, 01:19 PM
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Senior Member
2,455 posts Joined: Aug 2008 From: Malaysia
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Dec 13 2013, 11:40 AM) thanks for sharing |
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Dec 13 2013, 03:39 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(bennike129 @ Dec 13 2013, 01:19 PM) thanks for sharing |
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Dec 16 2013, 09:55 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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MAYBANK Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/12/16/ma...is-16-dec-2013/
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Dec 16 2013, 02:31 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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VITROX Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/12/16/vi...is-16-dec-2013/
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Dec 17 2013, 10:33 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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SCIENTX Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/12/17/sc...is-17-dec-2013/
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 Dec 17 2013, 11:02 PM
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Validating
1,525 posts Joined: Oct 2012 
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Great jobs.. Why select Bursa Msia counters only? Buy and Sell in RM .. Ratio 1:1 . Slow ROI if economy get better.
Invest in DJIA, Nasdaq, Rusell ..etc Buy and Sell in Foreign Currency.. Up and Down included currency Exchg rate too. |
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Dec 17 2013, 11:24 PM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#141
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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QUOTE(netmask8 @ Dec 17 2013, 11:02 PM) Great jobs.. Why select Bursa Msia counters only? Buy and Sell in RM .. Ratio 1:1 . Slow ROI if economy get better. This will combine with forex risk which may make all share become high risk share.Invest in DJIA, Nasdaq, Rusell ..etc Buy and Sell in Foreign Currency.. Up and Down included currency Exchg rate too. |
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Dec 18 2013, 11:06 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(netmask8 @ Dec 17 2013, 11:02 PM) Great jobs.. Why select Bursa Msia counters only? Buy and Sell in RM .. Ratio 1:1 . Slow ROI if economy get better. forex rate is sometimes double-edged sword. anyway, i can make satisfactory level of wealth in bursa already.Invest in DJIA, Nasdaq, Rusell ..etc Buy and Sell in Foreign Currency.. Up and Down included currency Exchg rate too. |
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Dec 18 2013, 11:05 PM
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Senior Member
1,637 posts Joined: Mar 2010 From: Bolehland 
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Do you have any research for BIMB?
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Dec 19 2013, 09:06 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(twhong_91 @ Dec 18 2013, 11:05 PM) Do you have any research for BIMB? not in my radar |
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Dec 19 2013, 12:12 PM
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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Hi Sifu,
what is MOS stand for? |
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Dec 20 2013, 11:09 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(500Kmission @ Dec 19 2013, 12:12 PM) Hi Sifu, margin of safetywhat is MOS stand for? |
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Dec 21 2013, 10:44 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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HAIO Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/12/21/ha...is-21-dec-2013/
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Dec 23 2013, 09:21 PM
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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sifu, your scientx balance sheet data in 2012 and 2013 are same amount.
And can you teach me why 2017 calculation in discount cash flow method is not same as other's years? This post has been edited by 500Kmission: Dec 23 2013, 09:24 PM |
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Dec 23 2013, 11:19 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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AHEALTH Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/12/23/ah...is-23-dec-2013/
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Dec 23 2013, 11:35 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(500Kmission @ Dec 23 2013, 09:21 PM) sifu, your scientx balance sheet data in 2012 and 2013 are same amount. Thanks for your feedback. You are sharp! My checksum for equity doesn't work. I will fix the problem.And can you teach me why 2017 calculation in discount cash flow method is not same as other's years? As for DCF, for the 4th year and above, decay rate is included into calculation. Decay rate is to "slow down" the growth rate. |
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Dec 25 2013, 10:54 PM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#151
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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Sifu, can I upload PDF file here which i convert from your excel file to PDF, so that it can help those people can't open excel file?
This post has been edited by 500Kmission: Dec 25 2013, 10:55 PM |
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Dec 26 2013, 08:10 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(500Kmission @ Dec 25 2013, 10:54 PM) Sifu, can I upload PDF file here which i convert from your excel file to PDF, so that it can help those people can't open excel file? Sure! Just curious, still got people don't use excel one meh? |
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Dec 26 2013, 10:39 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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I will consider to publish excel and pdf together.
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Dec 26 2013, 10:40 AM
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Senior Member
16,872 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Dec 26 2013, 10:39 AM) I will consider to publish excel and pdf together. Previously u DID publish PDF (only), recently only u did in .xls  |
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Dec 26 2013, 02:48 PM
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Senior Member
630 posts Joined: Oct 2010
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How about MAS?
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Dec 26 2013, 03:45 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(escargo75 @ Dec 26 2013, 02:48 PM) How about MAS? if MAS goes south further, that will be big insult to our beloved government. will the government let that happen? something to think about..... |
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Dec 26 2013, 04:11 PM
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Senior Member
630 posts Joined: Oct 2010
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Dec 26 2013, 04:45 PM) if MAS goes south further, that will be big insult to our beloved government. will the government let that happen? something to think about..... Do you know what is their intrinsic value? |
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Dec 26 2013, 04:24 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(escargo75 @ Dec 26 2013, 04:11 PM) Do you know what is their intrinsic value? I don't know as I don't follow MAS. |
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Dec 27 2013, 10:37 PM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#159
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Dec 26 2013, 08:10 AM) Sure! some people see the file from handphone. Some handphone can't install MS EXCEL.Just curious, still got people don't use excel one meh? |
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Dec 28 2013, 01:19 PM
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Junior Member
661 posts Joined: Jul 2011
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Wow...nice thread...bookmarked...
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Dec 28 2013, 05:00 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(500Kmission @ Dec 27 2013, 10:37 PM) some people see the file from handphone. Some handphone can't install MS EXCEL. OK. I will consider to publish pdf again. |
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Dec 28 2013, 05:12 PM
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Senior Member
1,499 posts Joined: Jan 2003
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Good work lcchong76!
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Jan 7 2014, 12:34 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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CYPARK Analysis - http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/01/07/cy...sis-7-jan-2014/
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Jan 8 2014, 10:38 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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KMLOONG–Waiting for bullish breakout
KMLOONG released FY14Q3 result on 31 Dec 2013. I yet to have time to analyse it thoroughly. The following figure shows my observation at this moment.  |
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Jan 8 2014, 10:30 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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MAYBANK–Wait for new support
Tonight, I had a chat with my wife as she asked me whether can buy MAYBANK now. In terms of fundamental analysis, MAYBANK is almost fully valued. However, after checking the price chart, we may have opportunity to accumulate MAYBANK in short future. Here is my finding: 1. MAYBANK is currently moving in a downtrend channel. 2. The first support will be the current uptrend line, where the projected support is 9.6 – 9.65. 3. The second support will be the lower line of the downtrend channel, where the projected support is 9.3 – 9.4 4. The third support zone, which is the strongest one, is the 8.3 – 9.2, where MAYBANK ranged in this zone for almost 2 years. 5. In my opinion, MAYBANK got very support zone from 8.3 – 9.4. It is unlikely MAYBANK will turn to major bearish. 6. For my style, I will wait until MAYBANK found its new support level. Then, I will accumulate MAYBANK. In conclusion, our action plan is WAIT.  |
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Jan 9 2014, 07:14 PM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#166
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Jan 8 2014, 10:30 PM) MAYBANK–Wait for new support Good analysis on chart Tonight, I had a chat with my wife as she asked me whether can buy MAYBANK now. In terms of fundamental analysis, MAYBANK is almost fully valued. However, after checking the price chart, we may have opportunity to accumulate MAYBANK in short future. Here is my finding: 1. MAYBANK is currently moving in a downtrend channel. 2. The first support will be the current uptrend line, where the projected support is 9.6 – 9.65. 3. The second support will be the lower line of the downtrend channel, where the projected support is 9.3 – 9.4 4. The third support zone, which is the strongest one, is the 8.3 – 9.2, where MAYBANK ranged in this zone for almost 2 years. 5. In my opinion, MAYBANK got very support zone from 8.3 – 9.4. It is unlikely MAYBANK will turn to major bearish. 6. For my style, I will wait until MAYBANK found its new support level. Then, I will accumulate MAYBANK. In conclusion, our action plan is WAIT. , I have planned for accumulate more maybank share as well when the price start drop from RM10. Expect that many staff may sell ESOS share for new year and chinese new year. |
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Jan 9 2014, 09:06 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Nov 23 2013, 03:27 PM) in the past few days, EPF started to net buy AIRASIA. Worth to observe... |
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Jan 19 2014, 08:16 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Jan 24 2014, 11:12 PM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#169
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Jan 8 2014, 10:30 PM) MAYBANK–Wait for new support Reach to first support, but I quote at 9.6.Tonight, I had a chat with my wife as she asked me whether can buy MAYBANK now. In terms of fundamental analysis, MAYBANK is almost fully valued. However, after checking the price chart, we may have opportunity to accumulate MAYBANK in short future. Here is my finding: 1. MAYBANK is currently moving in a downtrend channel. 2. The first support will be the current uptrend line, where the projected support is 9.6 – 9.65. 3. The second support will be the lower line of the downtrend channel, where the projected support is 9.3 – 9.4 4. The third support zone, which is the strongest one, is the 8.3 – 9.2, where MAYBANK ranged in this zone for almost 2 years. 5. In my opinion, MAYBANK got very support zone from 8.3 – 9.4. It is unlikely MAYBANK will turn to major bearish. 6. For my style, I will wait until MAYBANK found its new support level. Then, I will accumulate MAYBANK. In conclusion, our action plan is WAIT. |
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Jan 25 2014, 03:24 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(500Kmission @ Jan 24 2014, 11:12 PM) Reach to first support, but I quote at 9.6. let see if MAYBANK can hold at there |
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Jan 25 2014, 07:15 PM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#171
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Jan 25 2014, 03:24 PM) let see if MAYBANK can hold at there Hope public bank happen as maybank, so I can collect more for public bank as well. |
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Jan 26 2014, 11:29 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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TENAGA Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/01/26/te...is-26-jan-2014/ My View:- - The outperformance in stock price was a pleasant surprise, although the drivers behind it are likely unsustainable in our view. Nevertheless, 1Q was not a representative quarter in any case, as the new tariffs (+15%) to end-users are only effective in Jan 2014. - I remain positive on TENAGA as I believe i) consensus has yet to incorporate the full earnings accretion from the tariff hike and, ii) the reduced earnings risk under the Incentive-based Regulation (IBR) has not been fully priced in. - I will continue to hold TENAGA even if I sold 60% of stakes. I may accumulate TENAGA a bit if there is a new growth driver. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (23 Jan 2013) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1523449 At the time of writing, I owned shares of TENAGA.  |
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Jan 27 2014, 12:47 AM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#173
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Jan 26 2014, 11:29 PM) TENAGA Analysis:- I thought you buy this share for trading? due to government often support it if the price drop a lot.http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/01/26/te...is-26-jan-2014/ My View:- - The outperformance in stock price was a pleasant surprise, although the drivers behind it are likely unsustainable in our view. Nevertheless, 1Q was not a representative quarter in any case, as the new tariffs (+15%) to end-users are only effective in Jan 2014. - I remain positive on TENAGA as I believe i) consensus has yet to incorporate the full earnings accretion from the tariff hike and, ii) the reduced earnings risk under the Incentive-based Regulation (IBR) has not been fully priced in. - I will continue to hold TENAGA even if I sold 60% of stakes. I may accumulate TENAGA a bit if there is a new growth driver. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (23 Jan 2013) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1523449 At the time of writing, I owned shares of TENAGA. |
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Jan 28 2014, 12:09 AM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#174
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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Maybank drop to second support. Now wait if it will drop to third support or not; and high drop for Deleum and Wellcal, plan to collect?
My thought is:- 1. It seem Mondrian Investment Partners Limited start dispose Wellcal shares, so wait. 2. Deleum price is still too high, wait for after chinese new year. |
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Jan 28 2014, 09:26 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(500Kmission @ Jan 27 2014, 12:47 AM) I thought you buy this share for trading? due to government often support it if the price drop a lot. A bit mix. I have taken some profits, and I will hold some so that the profit will ride.If there is new growth driver, I may add small positions. |
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Jan 28 2014, 09:29 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(500Kmission @ Jan 28 2014, 12:09 AM) Maybank drop to second support. Now wait if it will drop to third support or not; and high drop for Deleum and Wellcal, plan to collect? MAYBANK - Yeap, let see can hold at 9.2-9.3 or not. I hope it will hold at that level.My thought is:- 1. It seem Mondrian Investment Partners Limited start dispose Wellcal shares, so wait. 2. Deleum price is still too high, wait for after chinese new year. WELLCAL and DELEUM - I agree to wait. I am quite keen to bargain hunt WELLCAL. |
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Feb 2 2014, 11:06 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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BURSA Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/02/bu...sis-2-feb-2014/ My View:- - Fair Values: – EY%: 9.52 – 11.68 – Absolute PE: 7.18 – 9.81 - As of now, I will take 9.5 – 9.8 as the range of fair value of BURSA. - In my opinion, in FY14, the following risks will outweigh the growth drivers – Withdrawal of foreign investors in very large scale. – US QE taper will cause higher volatility in the market. This may cause investors stay out of (or monitor) the equity market. - I will not accumulate BURSA at this moment, but will monitor it closely. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (29 Jan 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1529017 At the time of writing, I owned shares of BURSA.  This post has been edited by lcchong76: Feb 2 2014, 11:07 PM |
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Feb 3 2014, 11:50 AM
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Senior Member
1,917 posts Joined: Sep 2012
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I'm thinking of buying TENAGA, MAYBANK or IOIPG tomorrow.
 still undecided. |
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Feb 3 2014, 01:43 PM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#179
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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Sifu Chong,
Will bonus issue effect DCF, EY and absolute PE calculation? If not, will bonus issue make share price of company from overvalued to undervalued? |
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Feb 4 2014, 12:14 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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WELLCAL Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/03/we...sis-3-feb-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5Y DCF: 3.76 – 4.28 – EY%: 2.69 – 3.39 – Absolute PE: 3.97 – 5.02 (over optimistic_ - I think the range of fair value will be 3.3 – 4.2. - Even if WELLCAL dropped from 4.0 to 3.3, WELLCAL is now fully valued. - I may buy WELLCAL if it drops below 3.0. Latest Financial – FY2013 Financial Report (30 Jan 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1530173 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of WELLCAL.  |
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Feb 4 2014, 12:20 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(moosset @ Feb 3 2014, 11:50 AM) I'm thinking of buying TENAGA, MAYBANK or IOIPG tomorrow. Any reason you considering these stocks?still undecided. |
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Feb 4 2014, 12:33 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(500Kmission @ Feb 3 2014, 01:43 PM) Sifu Chong, It mainly will affect DCF and EY% (eps), but not absolute PE.Will bonus issue effect DCF, EY and absolute PE calculation? If not, will bonus issue make share price of company from overvalued to undervalued? Usually, people welcome bonus issue because it reflects the confidence of the company in its ability to service a larger equity base. Thus, bonus issues are said to be a good signaling mechanism on the company’s capacity to deliver future benefits to shareholders in terms of increased dividend. Therefore, stock price may goes up. On the other hand, due to increase of number of outstanding shares, fair value will be reduced to some extent (depends on the scale of bonus issues), but usually the impact is not so significant. |
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Feb 4 2014, 12:24 PM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#183
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Feb 4 2014, 12:33 AM) It mainly will affect DCF and EY% (eps), but not absolute PE. How will it affect DCF and EY%? It will drop as share price?Usually, people welcome bonus issue because it reflects the confidence of the company in its ability to service a larger equity base. Thus, bonus issues are said to be a good signaling mechanism on the company’s capacity to deliver future benefits to shareholders in terms of increased dividend. Therefore, stock price may goes up. On the other hand, due to increase of number of outstanding shares, fair value will be reduced to some extent (depends on the scale of bonus issues), but usually the impact is not so significant. Newbie here, hope you don't angry. This post has been edited by 500Kmission: Feb 4 2014, 12:25 PM |
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Feb 4 2014, 02:41 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(500Kmission @ Feb 4 2014, 12:24 PM) How will it affect DCF and EY%? It will drop as share price? Fair values derived from these models will be reduced because increase of outstanding shares (NOSH), but the impact is not so great one unless the company overdo bonus shares.Newbie here, hope you don't angry. DCF: Fair value = present value / NOSH EY%: eps = earnings/NOSH This post has been edited by lcchong76: Feb 4 2014, 02:44 PM |
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Feb 4 2014, 09:20 PM
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Feb 4 2014, 02:41 PM) Fair values derived from these models will be reduced because increase of outstanding shares (NOSH), but the impact is not so great one unless the company overdo bonus shares. I see, thanks for the explanation. As a result, bonus issue will not affect value of the company at all (i.e. change from overvalue to undervalue).DCF: Fair value = present value / NOSH EY%: eps = earnings/NOSH |
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Feb 6 2014, 01:30 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PBBANK Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/06/pb...sis-6-feb-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5Y DCF: 17.76 – 20.35 – EY%: 19.42 – 20.97 – Absolute PE: 19.76 – 22.99 (22.99 is too optimistic) - By looking at the fair values, I think PBBANK is now fully valued (or a bit overvalued). Even if the models proposed fair value above 20.00, but the MOS is not higher than 11%. - PBBANK has been climbing up since Jul 2012 with couple of small corrections. In my opinion, PBBANK may starts to range somewhere below 20.00. - In FY14-FY15, intense competition amongst financial institutions for market share as well as the need for higher capital conservation due to the requirements of Basel III capital framework, will continue to put pressure on pricing of products and return on equity. PBBANK growth will be slowing down, and this is proven from the declining ROE in the past 5 years. - I will continue to hold and monitor PBBANK, but will not accumulate PBBANK at this moment. After holding PBBANK for almost 15 years, the dividend gains covered almost 95% of my cost. I will just let it float with so called "cost free". Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (5 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1532249 At the time of writing, I owned shares of PBBANK.  This post has been edited by lcchong76: Feb 6 2014, 01:31 PM |
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Feb 7 2014, 04:35 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DIGI Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/07/di...sis-7-feb-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5Y DCF: 4.84 – 5.53 – EY%: 4.02 – 4.37 – Absolute PE: 4.36 – 4.73 – DY%: 3.45 – 3.74 - All models indicate that DIGI is either overvalued or fully valued. - The outperformance of 4Q13 was mainly due to lower-than-expected depreciation and taxes. I am not sure whether this is something recurring for long term. - With Internet subscribers increased by 14.5% and blended ARPU increased by a modest 2.1% to RM48, I am quite positive with DIGI future prospects. - However, I believe that DIGI is currently fully (or nearly) valued. - The last time I accumulated DIGI was in Jul 2013 at 4.66. Thus, I won’t accumulate DIGI for the time being. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (6 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1532993 At the time of writing, I owned shares of DIGI.  |
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Feb 7 2014, 07:51 PM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#188
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Feb 6 2014, 01:30 PM) PBBANK Analysis:- observation need to amend.http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/06/pb...sis-6-feb-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5Y DCF: 17.76 – 20.35 – EY%: 19.42 – 20.97 – Absolute PE: 19.76 – 22.99 (22.99 is too optimistic) - By looking at the fair values, I think PBBANK is now fully valued (or a bit overvalued). Even if the models proposed fair value above 20.00, but the MOS is not higher than 11%. - PBBANK has been climbing up since Jul 2012 with couple of small corrections. In my opinion, PBBANK may starts to range somewhere below 20.00. - In FY14-FY15, intense competition amongst financial institutions for market share as well as the need for higher capital conservation due to the requirements of Basel III capital framework, will continue to put pressure on pricing of products and return on equity. PBBANK growth will be slowing down, and this is proven from the declining ROE in the past 5 years. - I will continue to hold and monitor PBBANK, but will not accumulate PBBANK at this moment. After holding PBBANK for almost 15 years, the dividend gains covered almost 95% of my cost. I will just let it float with so called "cost free". Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (5 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1532249 At the time of writing, I owned shares of PBBANK. |
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Feb 7 2014, 08:21 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(500Kmission @ Feb 7 2014, 07:51 PM) observation need to amend. which part exactly need to amend? |
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Feb 7 2014, 08:25 PM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#190
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Feb 7 2014, 08:21 PM) which part exactly need to amend? Can't see the sentence for Efficient Scale, Growth Drivers & Risks/Challenges. |
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Feb 7 2014, 11:46 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(500Kmission @ Feb 7 2014, 08:25 PM) Can't see the sentence for Efficient Scale, Growth Drivers & Risks/Challenges. Looks like PDF rendering issue. |
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Feb 9 2014, 10:22 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DIALOG Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/09/di...sis-9-feb-2014/ My View:- - Due to the recent price drop (3.6 –> 3.3), I revisited DIALOG to see whether it is a bargain price or not. - Fair values: – EY%: 3.22 – 3.85 (I take average of EPS estimation for FY14 and FY15 from 11 analysts) – Absolute PE: 2.73 – 3.27 (I take average of EPS estimation for FY14 and FY15 from 11 analysts) - Based on the current price (3.3 as of 7 Feb 2014), DIALOG is either overvalued or fully valued. - I will consider to buy DIALOG if it drops below 3.0, or may be at 3.0 (if 3.0 turns out as a support). Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (19 Nov 2013) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1465809 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DIALOG.  |
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Feb 10 2014, 11:20 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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ARMADA Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/10/ar...is-10-feb-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – EY%: 4.45 – 6.91 - With orderbook stands at RM9b with a burn-rate of approximately >3 years, looks like ARMADA is a good buy. I believe that FY13 results will be outperform as well. - By looking at price chart, 4.08 – 4.16 is a very strong resistance zone. The positives are: – 3.5 – 3.7 is a very strong support zone. – Spotted 4 higher lows. - In the next few days, I will check out few more O&G companies. As of now, ARMADA is a good choice, and I will most likely buy it in the next few days.  Latest Financial – Q3 2013 Financial Report (20 Nov 2013) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1466961 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of ARMADA.  |
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Feb 11 2014, 03:17 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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JTIASA Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/11/jt...sis-11-feb-2014 My View:- - Fair value – EY%: 4.09 – 6.83 - Not sure about the fair value, and I need to further study JTIASA. - I need to further compare JTIASA with KMLOONG. In terms of productivity, costs, efficiency and financial health, at one glance, KMLOONG outplayed JTIASA. JTIASA may have greater potential but KMLOONG’s future prospect is not bad. - Since I already have SIME in my portfolio and recently accumulated SIME a bit, I will keep JTIASA in my radar and do further study.  |
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Feb 11 2014, 08:23 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PETGAS Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/11/pe...is-11-feb-2014/ My View:- - Fair value – EY%: 21.5 – 23.3 – Absolute PE: 22.1 – 24.00 - PETGAS is current fully valued. - I may accumulate PETGAS if its price dips below RM21. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (10 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1535437 At the time of writing, I owned shares of PETGAS.  |
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Feb 13 2014, 09:35 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DAYANG Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/13/da...is-12-feb-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – EY%: 4.57 – 4.67 (MOS: 17% – 19%) - Recommended MOS for DAYANG is around 17%. This indicates that DAYANG is undervalued. - DAYANG got excellent health and great prospect. - I will further study DAYANG. Latest Financial – Q3 2013 Financial Report (26 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1472417 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DAYANG.  |
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Feb 13 2014, 10:11 PM
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Senior Member
984 posts Joined: Nov 2008
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Always feel good after reading your excellent analysis. Keep it up
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Feb 13 2014, 10:12 PM
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Junior Member
661 posts Joined: Jul 2011
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Sifu lcchong,
Any chance of seeing your report on CIMB? |
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Feb 14 2014, 06:56 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(Oracles99 @ Feb 13 2014, 10:11 PM) Always feel good after reading your excellent analysis. Keep it up |
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Feb 14 2014, 06:57 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(Hollow21 @ Feb 13 2014, 10:12 PM) Sifu lcchong, I have stopped following CIMBAny chance of seeing your report on CIMB? |
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Feb 14 2014, 12:33 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DIALOG Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/14/di...is-14-feb-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – EY%: 3.22 – 3.85 (I take average of EPS estimation for FY14 and FY15 from 11 analysts) – Absolute PE: 2.73 – 3.27 (I take average of EPS estimation for FY14 and FY15 from 11 analysts) - Based on the current price (3.3 as of 7 Feb 2014), DIALOG is either overvalued or fully valued. - I will consider to buy DIALOG if it drops below 3.0, or may be at 3.0 (if 3.0 turns out as a support). Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (13 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1538729 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DIALOG.  |
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Feb 21 2014, 03:54 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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ARMADA Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/21/ar...is-21-feb-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – EY%: 4.15 – 6.21 - With Current orderbook is approximately RM13.2b with optional contract extensions of RM8.9b. - By looking at price chart, 4.08 – 4.16 is a very strong resistance zone. The positives are: – 3.5 – 3.7 is a very strong support zone. – Spotted 4 higher lows. - I will wait for bullish breakout from the current ranging zone. ARMADA is not a dividend stock, so it is no point for me to buy it while it is ranging. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (20 Feb 2013) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1543993 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of ARMADA.  |
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Feb 22 2014, 06:42 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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GAB Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/22/ga...is-22-feb-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 10-Y DCF: 12.75 – 15.61 (MOS: -17% -> 4%) – EY%: 11.60 – 12.44 (MOS: -28% -> -20%) – Absolute PE: 14.75 – 15.82 (MOS: -1.29% -> 5.54%) - I think the fair value probably range from 13 – 15. At the current price (14.94 as of 21 Feb 2014), GAB is already fully valued or over valued. Besides, MOS derived from all models are not up to my benchmark (10.59%). - The dividend return spread between GAB and CARLSBG vs the 10-year MGS yield has narrowed to only 30-40bpts vs the historical 10-year average of 280-290bpts. (Source: RHB) - Going forward, I remain conservative and skeptical above volume growth in the brewery sector as some reports show that the industry is saturated, coupled with several other external factors such as rising fuel costs, inflation as well as potential exposure to excise duty hike in the near future. However, earnings should be sustainable at current levels. – Based on my growth analysis, as of FY14Q2, GAB only achieved 50% (825,166) of FY13 revenue (1,676,348), and 46.8% (115,712) of FY13 net profit (217,604). Therefore, most likely, I estimate GAB’s FY14 result will be flat if compare to FY13. - 2014 will be a challenging year for brewers due to competition from contrabrand beers and as consumer spending dwindles. Fortunately, this will be partially alleviated by the Visit Malaysia Year 2014 event. - In my opinion, there is still some downside risk even though the share prices of both stocks have fallen sharply from last year’s peaks (down 30-45%). 11.60 – 13.00 is a good support zone, from fundamental and technical aspect. Chances of GAB dropping below this zone is low. - I may accumulate GAB if its price got big discount. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (20 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1543357 At the time of writing, I owned shares of GAB.  |
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Feb 23 2014, 08:54 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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CARLSBG Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/23/ca...is-23-feb-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 10-Y DCF: 9.11 – 11.17 (MOS: -39% -> 14%) – EY%: 12.10 – 12.87 (MOS: -4.99% -> 1.34%) – Absolute PE: 12.06 – 12.83 (MOS: -5.30% -> 1.05%) - I think the fair value probably range from 11.9 – 12.3. At the current price (12.62 as of 21 Feb 2014), CARLSBG is already fully valued or over valued. Besides, MOS derived from all models are not up to my benchmark (10.59%). - The dividend return spread between GAB and CARLSBG vs the 10-year MGS yield has narrowed to only 30-40bpts vs the historical 10-year average of 280-290bpts. (Source: RHB) - Going forward, I remain conservative and skeptical above volume growth in the brewery sector as some reports show that the industry is saturated, coupled with several other external factors such as rising fuel costs, inflation as well as potential exposure to excise duty hike in the near future. However, earnings should be sustainable at current levels. - 2014 will be a challenging year for brewers due to competition from contrabrand beers and as consumer spending dwindles. Fortunately, this will be partially alleviated by the Visit Malaysia Year 2014 event. - In my opinion, there is still some downside risk even though the share prices of both stocks have fallen sharply from last year’s peaks (down 30-45%). 10.24 – 11.50 is a good support zone, from technical aspect. Chances of CARLSBG dropping below this zone is low. - I may accumulate CARLSBG if its price got big discount. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (21 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1544685 At the time of writing, I owned shares of CARLSBG.  |
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Feb 23 2014, 08:54 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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CARLSBG Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/23/ca...is-23-feb-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 10-Y DCF: 9.11 – 11.17 (MOS: -39% -> 14%) – EY%: 12.10 – 12.87 (MOS: -4.99% -> 1.34%) – Absolute PE: 12.06 – 12.83 (MOS: -5.30% -> 1.05%) - I think the fair value probably range from 11.9 – 12.3. At the current price (12.62 as of 21 Feb 2014), CARLSBG is already fully valued or over valued. Besides, MOS derived from all models are not up to my benchmark (10.59%). - The dividend return spread between GAB and CARLSBG vs the 10-year MGS yield has narrowed to only 30-40bpts vs the historical 10-year average of 280-290bpts. (Source: RHB) - Going forward, I remain conservative and skeptical above volume growth in the brewery sector as some reports show that the industry is saturated, coupled with several other external factors such as rising fuel costs, inflation as well as potential exposure to excise duty hike in the near future. However, earnings should be sustainable at current levels. - 2014 will be a challenging year for brewers due to competition from contrabrand beers and as consumer spending dwindles. Fortunately, this will be partially alleviated by the Visit Malaysia Year 2014 event. - In my opinion, there is still some downside risk even though the share prices of both stocks have fallen sharply from last year’s peaks (down 30-45%). 10.24 – 11.50 is a good support zone, from technical aspect. Chances of CARLSBG dropping below this zone is low. - I may accumulate CARLSBG if its price got big discount. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (21 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1544685 At the time of writing, I owned shares of CARLSBG. |
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Feb 25 2014, 12:58 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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AXIATA Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/25/ax...is-25-feb-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – Absolute PE: 5.84 – 6.43 - AXIATA is current fully valued at current price (6.56 on 25 Feb 2014) - In terms of market timing, EY% suggest to buy below 6.03, and sell above 8.15. - I expect Celcom’s earnings to remain stable going forward amid rational competition. XL meanwhile will have to absorb Axis’ losses in the initial years post-merger. The potentially value-accretive tower spin-off exercise is not close to being completed. Besides, AXIATA is still highly leveraged. CROIC and ROIC are just stable, but not improving significantly. - As of now, I see lack of growth catalysts for Axiata in the near term. - I won’t accumulate AXIATA in the near term. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (20 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1543249 At the time of writing, I owned shares of AXIATA.  |
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Feb 25 2014, 01:09 PM
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Senior Member
1,177 posts Joined: Nov 2007
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I really enjoy reading your reports, so my compliments to you. However, in almost all of your reports, the companies under coverage are deemed fully valued or even over-valued. Not very useful if you are sitting on cash and looking for something to buy.
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Feb 25 2014, 02:19 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(wankongyew @ Feb 25 2014, 01:09 PM) I really enjoy reading your reports, so my compliments to you. However, in almost all of your reports, the companies under coverage are deemed fully valued or even over-valued. Not very useful if you are sitting on cash and looking for something to buy. In matter of fact, this is the current condition of market. |
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Feb 25 2014, 03:16 PM
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Senior Member
1,177 posts Joined: Nov 2007
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Feb 25 2014, 02:19 PM) In matter of fact, this is the current condition of market. I understand. Effectively, you are saying, "Nothing to invest in. Stay in cash or hold existing stocks." |
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Feb 25 2014, 04:10 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(wankongyew @ Feb 25 2014, 03:16 PM) I understand. Effectively, you are saying, "Nothing to invest in. Stay in cash or hold existing stocks." you are right! |
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Feb 25 2014, 04:35 PM
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Junior Member
13 posts Joined: Sep 2010
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can i use this approach:
fully valued > hold over valued > sell if fully valued but growth <3% (FD rate) then sell too? |
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Feb 25 2014, 04:39 PM
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Senior Member
1,229 posts Joined: Sep 2006
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lcchong, you might want to check out PJDEV & MATRIX.
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Feb 25 2014, 04:47 PM
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Senior Member
2,145 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: 1BORNEO
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did you make a review on RhbCap?
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Feb 25 2014, 09:45 PM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#214
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Feb 25 2014, 12:58 PM) AXIATA Analysis:- And one of best corporate governance in malaysia which award by MSWG.http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/25/ax...is-25-feb-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – Absolute PE: 5.84 – 6.43 - AXIATA is current fully valued at current price (6.56 on 25 Feb 2014) - In terms of market timing, EY% suggest to buy below 6.03, and sell above 8.15. - I expect Celcom’s earnings to remain stable going forward amid rational competition. XL meanwhile will have to absorb Axis’ losses in the initial years post-merger. The potentially value-accretive tower spin-off exercise is not close to being completed. Besides, AXIATA is still highly leveraged. CROIC and ROIC are just stable, but not improving significantly. - As of now, I see lack of growth catalysts for Axiata in the near term. - I won’t accumulate AXIATA in the near term. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (20 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1543249 At the time of writing, I owned shares of AXIATA. |
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Feb 25 2014, 10:30 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(untong @ Feb 25 2014, 04:35 PM) can i use this approach: err... my rule is not like this one.fully valued > hold over valued > sell if fully valued but growth <3% (FD rate) then sell too? |
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Feb 25 2014, 10:31 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(valan @ Feb 25 2014, 04:39 PM) lcchong, you might want to check out PJDEV & MATRIX. Thanks valan. I will check it out. |
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Feb 25 2014, 10:33 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(TSOM @ Feb 25 2014, 04:47 PM) did you make a review on RhbCap? I stopped following rhbcap very long time ago. |
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Feb 25 2014, 10:34 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(500Kmission @ Feb 25 2014, 09:45 PM) And one of best corporate governance in malaysia which award by MSWG. Oh yeap, thanks for reminding me |
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Feb 25 2014, 10:44 PM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#219
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Feb 25 2014, 10:34 PM) Oh yeap, thanks for reminding me Have you do the analysis for LPI? |
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Feb 25 2014, 10:53 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(500Kmission @ Feb 25 2014, 10:44 PM) Have you do the analysis for LPI? Yes and No.Yes - I helped my father in law to maintain LPI's financial figures. No - I do not analyze LPI thoroughly. However, I am sure it is an outstanding company and stock. |
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Feb 25 2014, 11:24 PM
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Senior Member
2,145 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: 1BORNEO
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QUOTE(500Kmission @ Feb 25 2014, 10:44 PM) Have you do the analysis for LPI? Is that a good one? |
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Feb 25 2014, 11:26 PM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#222
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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QUOTE(TSOM @ Feb 25 2014, 11:24 PM) Is that a good one? see yourself http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/stocks/view/8621 |
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Feb 26 2014, 08:53 AM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#223
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Feb 25 2014, 10:30 PM) err... my rule is not like this one. I think sifu chong mean that he has provided you all the analysis, you may not refer to what he comment and purchase the stock. However, with the analysis, you are able to take the risk knowingly. |
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Feb 26 2014, 02:25 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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JTINTER Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/26/jt...is-26-feb-2014/ My View:- - Market Timing – EY%: Buy below 6.18, sell above 7.19 – 5Y DCF: 6.68 – 7.66; 5Y RDCF: 1% growth rate – Note: The reason I use 121.72 as owner earnings (but not 117) is capex in FY13 (RM62,393,000) is extremely high. Thus, I use average of capex from 2008 to 2012 to calculate owner earnings. I have to wait FY14 annual report in order to understand the reason. – JTINTER may be slightly under valued. – Recently, JTINTER dropped from 6.6 to 6.25 which is quite close to 6.18 (EY%) – Based on analysts’ consensus, JTINTER’s net cash may hit MYR1/share in FY15. JTINTER has, in the past, paid dividends of 15 to 75sen/share when its net cash reached MYR1/share. Its latest net cash stood at 43.8sen/share at end- Dec 2013. - Analysts expect industry sales volume to contract by 6% in 2014 and 2015 respectively following the recent 14% hike in selling prices. Besides, JTINTER management expects operating environment to remain extremely challenging, primarily due to the hike in excise duty and cigarette prices. In addition, consumption is expected to be impacted by continued inflationary pressures and weak consumer sentiment. - JTINTER is one of the most defensive stocks in my equity holdings. - Looking at potentially high dividend payout in the future, as of writing, I have accumulated few lots of JTINTER at 6.38. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (25 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1547437 At the time of writing, I owned shares of JTINTER.  |
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Feb 26 2014, 02:29 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(500Kmission @ Feb 26 2014, 08:53 AM) I think sifu chong mean that he has provided you all the analysis, you may not refer to what he comment and purchase the stock. However, with the analysis, you are able to take the risk knowingly. betul betul. |
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Feb 26 2014, 02:44 PM
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Senior Member
16,872 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Feb 26 2014, 02:25 PM) - JTINTER is one of the most defensive stocks in my equity holdings. Why u no accumulate when it dropped below RM6.30 last few days? - Looking at potentially high dividend payout in the future, as of writing, I have accumulated few lots of JTINTER at 6.38. |
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Feb 26 2014, 02:46 PM
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Senior Member
5,614 posts Joined: Jun 2006 From: Cyberjaya, Shah Alam, Ipoh
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Feb 26 2014, 03:25 PM) JTINTER Analysis:- I like your technical analysis....keep it up http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/26/jt...is-26-feb-2014/ My View:- - Market Timing – EY%: Buy below 6.18, sell above 7.19 – 5Y DCF: 6.68 – 7.66; 5Y RDCF: 1% growth rate – Note: The reason I use 121.72 as owner earnings (but not 117) is capex in FY13 (RM62,393,000) is extremely high. Thus, I use average of capex from 2008 to 2012 to calculate owner earnings. I have to wait FY14 annual report in order to understand the reason. – JTINTER may be slightly under valued. – Recently, JTINTER dropped from 6.6 to 6.25 which is quite close to 6.18 (EY%) – Based on analysts’ consensus, JTINTER’s net cash may hit MYR1/share in FY15. JTINTER has, in the past, paid dividends of 15 to 75sen/share when its net cash reached MYR1/share. Its latest net cash stood at 43.8sen/share at end- Dec 2013. - Analysts expect industry sales volume to contract by 6% in 2014 and 2015 respectively following the recent 14% hike in selling prices. Besides, JTINTER management expects operating environment to remain extremely challenging, primarily due to the hike in excise duty and cigarette prices. In addition, consumption is expected to be impacted by continued inflationary pressures and weak consumer sentiment. - JTINTER is one of the most defensive stocks in my equity holdings. - Looking at potentially high dividend payout in the future, as of writing, I have accumulated few lots of JTINTER at 6.38. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (25 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1547437 At the time of writing, I owned shares of JTINTER. |
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Feb 26 2014, 03:59 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Feb 26 2014, 02:44 PM) Why u no accumulate when it dropped below RM6.30 last few days? I wanted to wait for report. |
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Feb 26 2014, 04:09 PM
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Senior Member
16,872 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Feb 26 2014, 03:59 PM) I wanted to wait for report. You're comfortable with the stagnant/deteriorating industry volume? Sales are now supported by selling price, volumes are going down. |
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Feb 26 2014, 06:51 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Feb 26 2014, 04:09 PM) You're comfortable with the stagnant/deteriorating industry volume? Sales are now supported by selling price, volumes are going down. I guess people tighten pocket is probably a medium issue. Once people get use to inflation etc, smokers will resume their behavior. This is my assumption. |
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Feb 26 2014, 08:40 PM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#231
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Feb 26 2014, 06:51 PM) I guess people tighten pocket is probably a medium issue. Once people get use to inflation etc, smokers will resume their behavior. This is my assumption. Based on information I have gathered from few sundry shop last year, they said many of their mid-level cigarette customer has moved to buy the illegal cigarette due to the taste is just slightly different, but the cost is double/triple lower.The high-cost cigarette (e.g. danhill) is still remain the top sales. The second top now is illegal cigarette. As Warren Buffet say, cigarette is low cost and addicted product, it is a steal stock. However, BAT is overvalue, unless there is listed company selling illegal cigarette. |
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Feb 27 2014, 09:21 AM
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Senior Member
16,872 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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While I have shifted from RM12 Mevius/Mild Seven to RM10.50 Winston red...still JTI product!
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Feb 27 2014, 09:53 AM
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Senior Member
12,534 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia....
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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Feb 27 2014, 09:21 AM) While I have shifted from RM12 Mevius/Mild Seven to RM10.50 Winston red...still JTI product! JTI... good results... That day you wanted to add more.. jadi? |
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Feb 27 2014, 10:01 AM
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Senior Member
16,872 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(gark @ Feb 27 2014, 09:53 AM) JTI... good results... Tak jadi...sudah lari ayam That day you wanted to add more.. jadi? 3% only from recent low...not really a mature ayam lar...ayam kecik saja, nvm la  This post has been edited by Pink Spider: Feb 27 2014, 10:02 AM |
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Feb 27 2014, 12:14 PM
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Senior Member
3,033 posts Joined: May 2011
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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Feb 27 2014, 10:01 AM) Tak jadi...sudah lari ayam If u can increase your smoking to 10 packets a day, u can turn the ayam kecik into angsa......siew ngor...3% only from recent low...not really a mature ayam lar...ayam kecik saja, nvm la |
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Feb 27 2014, 01:13 PM
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Senior Member
16,872 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(Tigerr @ Feb 27 2014, 12:14 PM) If u can increase your smoking to 10 packets a day, u can turn the ayam kecik into angsa......siew ngor... Jangan....skrang satu pek a day I also feel like too much  |
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Feb 27 2014, 02:13 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Feb 27 2014, 01:13 PM) Jangan....skrang satu pek a day I also feel like too much Tolong sikit la, take extra half pek lor. LOL... |
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Feb 27 2014, 02:48 PM
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Junior Member
309 posts Joined: Nov 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Feb 26 2014, 02:25 PM) JTINTER Analysis:- q4 result looks so good. any idea what is the main contribution?http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/26/jt...is-26-feb-2014/ My View:- - Market Timing – EY%: Buy below 6.18, sell above 7.19 – 5Y DCF: 6.68 – 7.66; 5Y RDCF: 1% growth rate – Note: The reason I use 121.72 as owner earnings (but not 117) is capex in FY13 (RM62,393,000) is extremely high. Thus, I use average of capex from 2008 to 2012 to calculate owner earnings. I have to wait FY14 annual report in order to understand the reason. – JTINTER may be slightly under valued. – Recently, JTINTER dropped from 6.6 to 6.25 which is quite close to 6.18 (EY%) – Based on analysts’ consensus, JTINTER’s net cash may hit MYR1/share in FY15. JTINTER has, in the past, paid dividends of 15 to 75sen/share when its net cash reached MYR1/share. Its latest net cash stood at 43.8sen/share at end- Dec 2013. - Analysts expect industry sales volume to contract by 6% in 2014 and 2015 respectively following the recent 14% hike in selling prices. Besides, JTINTER management expects operating environment to remain extremely challenging, primarily due to the hike in excise duty and cigarette prices. In addition, consumption is expected to be impacted by continued inflationary pressures and weak consumer sentiment. - JTINTER is one of the most defensive stocks in my equity holdings. - Looking at potentially high dividend payout in the future, as of writing, I have accumulated few lots of JTINTER at 6.38. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (25 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1547437 At the time of writing, I owned shares of JTINTER. |
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Feb 27 2014, 11:07 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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AIRASIA Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/27/ai...is-27-feb-2014/ My View:- - Market Timing – EY%: Buy below 3.25, sell above 4.05 - I believe that while AIRASIA’s growth drivers will be still valid and solid, AIRASIA’s cost saving initiatives will help them to improve net profit in the future. The cost saving initiatives include: (i) increasing the use of automation (ii) reduce marketing spending (iii) renegotiation of engineering contracts (iv) route rationalisation (v) closure of regional offices (vi) disposing old aircraft in order to be more competitive in the market. - Apart from cost saving initiatives, management will also strive to strike a balance by enhancing its revenue through its "Emirates Project" by introducing more connecting flights with AAX and other AOCS, growing its ancillary income per pax from RM41 to RM50 by introducing Wifi and Duty Free Shopping on plane. - I believe that FY2014 would be a better year as compared to 2013, with the expectation that yield would recover and its cost savings initiatives would boost earnings. - On the other hand, MAS and AIRASIA have guided that domestic and intra-ASEAN fares are unlikely to decline further from the already-low levels, but fares are unlikely to rise either, as capacity deployment over the next six months will be kept at present levels and there is no evidence of capacity rationalisation. As the weak 4Q13 fares carry over into 2014, some analysts expect MAA to experience an average 5% underlying yield compression in 2014, leading to a 26% core net profit decline. To make things worse, Thai AirAsia’s profit is likely to shrink and Indonesia AirAsia’s losses expand further this year. Thus, the analysts expect AirAsia’s group core net profit to fall a massive 43% yoy in 2014. The outlook may improve in 2015-16 as the losses are unsustainable for MAS and Malindo. I also conquer with their view. - Based on Changes in Sub. S-hldr’s Int. (29B), since Jan 2014, EPF has been heavily buying AIRASIA, and Wellington also stopped net selling AIRASIA. Heavy buy by EPF doesn’t guarantee appreciation of AIRASIA’s stock price, but it provides a very strong support from 2.2 to 2.4. - AirAsia has told Bursa Malaysia that it is proposing to buy up to 10% of its issued and paid-up share capital at any point in time. The proposed share buyback, if implemented, will enable AirAsia and its subsidiaries to utilise any of its surplus financial resources, which are not immediately required for other uses, to purchase its own shares from the market, the company said. The proposed share buyback is expected to stabilise the price of AirAsia shares and to prevent against speculation of the shares, when undervalued, to enhance investors’ confidence. (27 Feb 2014) - I have accumulated AIRASIA 3 times in Dec 2013 and Jan 2014 in the range from 2.3 to 2.4, so I won’t accumulate AIRASIA in near term or until it formed a new higher support. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (26 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1550541 At the time of writing, I owned shares of AIRASIA. |
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Feb 28 2014, 10:33 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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MAYBANK Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/28/ma...is-28-feb-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5Y DCF: 10.26 – 11.68 (MOS: 5% – 16%) – Absolute PE: 12.94 – 13.81 (MOS: 24% – 29%) – I think 11.6-12.9 is reasonable fair value range for MAYBANK. Thus, MAYBANK is slightly undervalued. - MAYBANK seems to be fairly optimistic over FY14 outlook with tall targets of 13% growth in both loans and deposits. Besides, they also maintain its ROE target at 15%. In my opinion, after studied the risks and growth drivers, this is a realistic target. - Market Timing: – EY%: buy below 10.19, sell above 12.18 - I will wait for bullish reversal of the down channel, or MAYBANK formed a new strong support. Then, I will accumulate MAYBANK a bit without increasing my average price too much. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (27 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1550825 At the time of writing, I owned shares of MAYBANK. |
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Mar 1 2014, 10:06 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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VITROX Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/01/vi...sis-1-mar-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – 5Y DCF: 1.49 – 1.68 (MOS: 11% – 22%) – VITROX is still undervalued. Market Timing: – EY%: Buy below 0.79, sell above 1.51 - I believe that FY14 will be a growth year for VITROX because of the recovery of global semiconductor industry and improving US, Japan and European markets. - I will accumulate VITROX if it formed a strong support level. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (27 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1551141 At the time of writing, I owned shares of VITROX. |
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Mar 1 2014, 02:21 PM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#242
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Feb 28 2014, 10:33 PM) MAYBANK Analysis:- The sad thing is their dividend has dropped.http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/28/ma...is-28-feb-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5Y DCF: 10.26 – 11.68 (MOS: 5% – 16%) – Absolute PE: 12.94 – 13.81 (MOS: 24% – 29%) – I think 11.6-12.9 is reasonable fair value range for MAYBANK. Thus, MAYBANK is slightly undervalued. - MAYBANK seems to be fairly optimistic over FY14 outlook with tall targets of 13% growth in both loans and deposits. Besides, they also maintain its ROE target at 15%. In my opinion, after studied the risks and growth drivers, this is a realistic target. - Market Timing: – EY%: buy below 10.19, sell above 12.18 - I will wait for bullish reversal of the down channel, or MAYBANK formed a new strong support. Then, I will accumulate MAYBANK a bit without increasing my average price too much. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (27 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1550825 At the time of writing, I owned shares of MAYBANK. |
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Mar 1 2014, 02:49 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(500Kmission @ Mar 1 2014, 02:21 PM) The sad thing is their dividend has dropped. They are still in growing stage. They still need capital for expansion. I think High dividend payout may not sustainable for the time being. |
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Mar 1 2014, 09:48 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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WELLCAL Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/01/we...sis-1-mar-2014/ My View:- - Fair value – 5Y DCF: 3.76 – 4.28 (MOS: 0% – 10%) – WELLCAL is currently fully valued. - Market timing – EY%: Buy under 2.38, Sell above 3.73 - WELLCAL has appreciated 60% (during this time, the KLCI was only up 3% while the FBM Small Cap Index rose 19%) and dividend yield has declined to the 5% levels. - I will wait for big correction, such as WELLCAL drops to 3.00…. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (26 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1550029 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of WELLCAL. |
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Mar 1 2014, 11:48 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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BURSA Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/01/bu...sis-1-mar-2014/ My View:- - Market Timing: – EY%: Buy below 8.33, sell above 11.72 - In my opinion, in FY14, the following risks will outweigh the growth drivers – Withdrawal of foreign investors in very large scale. – US QE taper will cause higher volatility in the market. This may cause investors stay out of (or monitor) the equity market. - I may/may not accumulate BURSA in the near term. Let see how it goes. Latest Financial – Annual Report 2013 (27 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1550697 At the time of writing, I owned shares of BURSA. |
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Mar 2 2014, 07:34 PM
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Senior Member
1,040 posts Joined: Mar 2006
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Mar 1 2014, 11:48 PM) BURSA Analysis:- Thank for sharing ya. I'm just plan to get in bursa as now 7.5-7.6. What do you think if I get few now for dividend proposing .http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/01/bu...sis-1-mar-2014/ My View:- - Market Timing: – EY%: Buy below 8.33, sell above 11.72 - In my opinion, in FY14, the following risks will outweigh the growth drivers – Withdrawal of foreign investors in very large scale. – US QE taper will cause higher volatility in the market. This may cause investors stay out of (or monitor) the equity market. - I may/may not accumulate BURSA in the near term. Let see how it goes. Latest Financial – Annual Report 2013 (27 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1550697 At the time of writing, I owned shares of BURSA. |
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Mar 2 2014, 10:48 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(lwk523 @ Mar 2 2014, 07:34 PM) Thank for sharing ya. I'm just plan to get in bursa as now 7.5-7.6. What do you think if I get few now for dividend proposing . If you buy now, the current dividend yield is 6.91%, and rolling 4Q dividend yield is 4.25%. Looks ok, but you make the decision. |
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Mar 3 2014, 12:16 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DAYANG Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/03/da...sis-3-mar-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – 5Y DCF: 3.27 – 3.71 (MOS: -7% – 6%) - Market timing: – EY%: Buy below 3.36, sell above 5.41 - DAYANG’S longer-term prospects are strong given that c.77% of its RM4b orderbook extends until 2018. It is also a beneficiary of any improvements in associate PERDANA earnings. - I will consider to buy DAYANG if – it dropped below 3.3; or – it formed a strong support. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (26 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1549121 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DAYANG. |
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Mar 3 2014, 11:37 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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GENTING Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/03/ge...is-3-mar-2014/a My View:- - Market Timing: – EY%: Buy below 7.57, sell above 11.63 - GENTING, as a holding company, should have no problems financing its power division’s capex commitments of US$1bn. The annual cashflow of over RM530m from GENM’s management fees should be sufficient to meet the equity portion of the US$360m, spread over three years. However, if we consider the US$4bn capex for Resorts World Las Vegas (RWLV), the timing of the cashflow could be an issue as the RM7bn cash from the conversion of warrants will be spread out over the next five years. Apparently, work on RWLV will not start until it secures the necessary gaming licence. Analysts expect the licence to be obtained in the next 12-18 months. However, based on the building applications submitted by RWLV on 4 Dec 2013 as found on http://www.clackcountynv.gov, there appears to have been progress. This means construction could start as early as 3Q14. - GENTING has many new projects on hand, but most of the projects are under development. Besides, it takes long time for GENTING to obtain casino license. And the risk is GENTING may not able to obtain license. - As of now, I won’t add position to GENTING because there are many uncertainties at this moment. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (27 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1552681 At the time of writing, I owned shares of GENTING. |
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Mar 4 2014, 06:22 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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CSCENIC Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/04/cs...sis-4-mar-2013/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5Y DCF: 1.16 – 1.32 (MOS: -1% – 11%) – Absolute PE: 1.16 – 1.18 (MOS: -1.04% – 1.13%) - Market Timing: – EY%: Buy below 0.69, sell above 0.88. From 2009 to present, EY% has been declining from 19% to 6.9%. – 5Y DCF: Buy below 0.85 – Absolute PE: Buy below 0.92 - All models indicates CSCENIC is fully valued. - I will wait for big correction, such as CSCENIC drops below 1.00 and then formed a strong support below 1.00. Or I may also consider to buy CSCENIC if CSCENIC formed a strong support at 1.00. Let see how it goes. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (27 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1550989 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of CSCENIC. |
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Mar 6 2014, 01:04 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DELEUM Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/06/de...sis-6-mar-2014/ My View:- - Fair value – 5Y DCF: 5.21 – 5.89 (MOS: 6% – 17%) – DELEUM is near fully valued. - Market Timing – EY%: Buy under 2.43, sell under 5.03 - The long term outlook looks bright for Deleum, with a RM3.5bn orderbook lasting up to 7 years and 2 major contracts commencing in FY14. - I will wait for bigger correction. Let see how it goes. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (25 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1547721 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DELEUM. |
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Mar 7 2014, 10:56 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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SIME Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/07/si...sis-7-mar-2014/ My View:- - Fair values/Market Timing: – 5Y DCF: 8.75 – 9.86 (MOS: -6% – 6%) – Absolute PE: 10.78 (MOS: 14.41%) – EY%: Buy below 8.33, sell above 10.42 (11.43%) – For SIME, the MOS to be used should be 19.42%. Thus all models indicate that SIME is near-fully valued. - Despite the weak 1H14 result, the plantation division EBIT has doubled to RM514m QoQ due to improvement in CPO prices. With the current CPO prices at above RM2700/MT or at least 10% higher QoQ, I believe better days ahead for plantation division. Hence, the Group’s 2H14 CNP is likely to improve QoQ given that plantation is the biggest earnings contributor to SIME earnings. I will look beyond 1H14 weak result and start positioning for the expected better second half. - For the time being, I won’t add position, but of course, I will continue to hold SIME (hopefully it will ride up….). Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (28 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1552905 At the time of writing, I owned shares of SIME. |
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Mar 8 2014, 12:20 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PBBANK Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/08/pb...sis-8-mar-2014/ My View:- - Fair values/Market Timing: – 5Y DCF: 17.45 – 20.00 (MOS: -9% – 5%) – EY%: Buy below 17.45, sell above 22.18 (MOS: 13.96%) – Absolute PE: 21.90 – 24.11 (MOS: 12.89% – 20.87%) – MOS to be used is 23.38%. – By looking at the fair values, I think PBBANK is now fully valued (or a bit overvalued). Even if the models proposed fair value above 20.00, but the MOS is not higher than 23%. - PBBANK has been climbing up since Jul 2012 with couple of small corrections. In my opinion, PBBANK may starts to range somewhere below 20.00. - In FY14-FY15, intense competition amongst financial institutions for market share as well as the need for higher capital conservation due to the requirements of Basel III capital framework, will continue to put pressure on pricing of products and return on equity. PBBANK growth will be slowing down, and this is proven from the declining ROE in the past 5 years. - I will continue to hold and monitor PBBANK, but will not accumulate PBBANK at this moment. After holding PBBANK for almost 15 years, the dividend gains covered almost 95% of my cost. I will just let it float with so called "cost free". Latest Financial – Annual Report 2013 (6 Mar 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1559257 At the time of writing, I owned shares of PBBANK. |
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Mar 9 2014, 12:17 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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SUNWAY Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/09/su...sis-9-mar-2014/ My View:- - Market Timing/Fair value: – I am not able to determine reasonable fair value for SUNWAY - I remain cautious on the increasingly crowded Iskandar Malaysia development and luxury property market which would be hit by the new property cooling measures amid stricter lending rules. However, earnings are well-supported by its MYR2.4bn unbilled sales (MYR2.2bn in 3Q13) and MYR3.9bn construction orderbook. - Based on technical analysis, SUNWAY is still in down trend. - For the time being, I am not so sure whether I should add position. My current average price is 2.22, may be I should wait and see. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (27 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1551289 At the time of writing, I owned shares of SUNWAY. |
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Mar 9 2014, 06:47 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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AHEALTH Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/09/ah...sis-9-mar-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value: – 5Y DCF: 6.86 – 7.84 (MOS: 35% – 43%) - Market Timing: – EY%: 3.35 – 4.02 (MOS: -12%) - As a pharmaceutical company, AHEALTH is a defensive company. However, what I dislike is balance float of shares in market is around 15% only. Liquidity of this stock is low. - I may buy some shares of AHEALTH in the future. I will continue to monitor it. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (26 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1550277 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of AHEALTH. |
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Mar 10 2014, 10:52 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QL Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/10/ql...is-10-mar-2014/ My View:- - Fair value/Market Timing – Absolute PE: 2.77 (MOS: -16.65%) – EY%: Buy below 1.88, sell above 2.98 (MOS: -8.52%) - The drivers of FY14 results: – higher surimi-based products sales due to the year-end festival season, – ILF, due to lower feed prices which have started to decline in 3Q but stable egg selling prices – the continuous improvement in MPM results with margins sustaining above the 5-year average of 14% in the recent quarters – higher-than-expected CPO price and higher FFB volume processed - I believe that the current price already factored in the growth drivers. - I won’t buy QL for the time being. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (20 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1543481 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of QL. |
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 Mar 15 2014, 05:37 AM
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Junior Member
672 posts Joined: Sep 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Mar 10 2014, 10:52 AM) QL Analysis:- Bro mind to share your Analysis on ILB and thanks in advanced http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/10/ql...is-10-mar-2014/ My View:- - Fair value/Market Timing – Absolute PE: 2.77 (MOS: -16.65%) – EY%: Buy below 1.88, sell above 2.98 (MOS: -8.52%) - The drivers of FY14 results: – higher surimi-based products sales due to the year-end festival season, – ILF, due to lower feed prices which have started to decline in 3Q but stable egg selling prices – the continuous improvement in MPM results with margins sustaining above the 5-year average of 14% in the recent quarters – higher-than-expected CPO price and higher FFB volume processed - I believe that the current price already factored in the growth drivers. - I won’t buy QL for the time being. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (20 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1543481 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of QL. Do you think is good buy to keep within a year since the prices is reasonable about 0.735 and also the following reason as below -Year 2013 net profit 192.718m -Top 10 Best KLSE Dividend Stocks of the Year (2013) |
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Mar 16 2014, 11:18 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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MAYBANK Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/16/ma...is-16-mar-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5Y DCF: 10.38 – 11.82 (MOS: 9% – 20%) – Absolute PE: 12.94 – 13.81 (MOS: 24% – 29%) – EY%: buy below 10.25, sell above 12.25 – MAYBANK is undervalued. - MAYBANK seems to be fairly optimistic over FY14 outlook with tall targets of 13% growth in both loans and deposits. Besides, they also maintain its ROE target at 15%. In my opinion, after studied the risks and growth drivers, this is a realistic target. - As of 14/03/2014, at 9.5, looks like MAYBANK is attractive now. I may wait for bullish reversal of the down channel, or MAYBANK formed a new strong support. Then, I will accumulate MAYBANK a bit without increasing my average price too much. Latest Financial – Annual Report 2013 (14 Mar 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1567189 At the time of writing, I owned shares of MAYBANK. |
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Mar 21 2014, 02:44 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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SCIENTX Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/21/sc...is-21-mar-2014/ My View:- - Fair value/Market Timing: – 5Y DCF: 7.34 – 8.32 (MOS: 19% – 29%) – Buy under 4.50, sell above 6.45 - While the rise in raw material prices had affected margins for the manufacturing segment, I remain positive on SCIENTX’s longer term prospects. Ongoing expansion plans for higher margin consumer packaging films and product extensions such as the thinner gauge film (6 microns) should also provide added buffers against margin contractions. At the same time, the group has also recently completed the expansion of its stretch film capacity to 194k MT/ annum (Dec 2013), which would provide the impetus for growth in manufacturing revenue and accelerate the prospects of spinning off the Group’s property division. - I have missed the opportunities of buying SCIENTX. Let see I got opportunity to buy it in the future. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (20 Mar 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1571021 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of SCIENTX. |
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Mar 24 2014, 09:40 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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KMLOONG Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/24/km...is-24-mar-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5-Y DCF – 3.33 – 3.72 (MOS: 17% – 26%) – EY% – Buy below 2.33, sell above 3.33 – In my opinion, 3.3 – 3.7 is fair value range for KMLOONG. KMLOONG is currently undervalued. - The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. In a worst case scenario, KMLOONG, a net cash company with a low cost of production and an experienced management team would be able to withstand the turbulence and even take up expansion opportunities. - Recently, I have purchased KMLOONG at 2.8, and then 2.74. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (31 Dec 2013) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1505401 At the time of writing, I owned shares of KMLOONG. |
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Mar 24 2014, 05:18 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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NHFATT Analysis:-
Excel – http://1drv.ms/1oSY1cl My View:- - Market Timing/Fair Value: – EY%: Buy below 1.78, sell above 2.23 – Absolute PE: 2.85 (MOS: 1.9%) - In the last 5 years, its top and bottom lines have remained flat. Moving forward, NHFATT’s future business growth will depend on how well its overseas exports perform (especially Indonesia), and its success in defending its home turf from imports. NHFATT is just beginning to increase its presence in Indonesia and China. Indonesia’s car volume is almost twice the size of Malaysia’s and is still growing. Despite this, it could take some time before the benefits are materialised and even then there are still uncertainties on whether it would be successful. - Its share price has doubled in 5 years but its share price is still at a 33% discount to its book value. However, because of flat earnings, constant dividends paid out, and the increase in share price from 2009 to 2013, its dividend yield based on the average prices has come down from 7.4% to 4.5%. - Besides, its CROIC and ROIC were declining in the past 7 years. - I will keep this counter in the Discontinued List. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (26 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1548869 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of NHFATT. |
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Mar 26 2014, 05:05 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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CARLSBG Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/26/ca...is-26-mar-2014/ My View:- - Fair values/Market Timing: – 10-Y DCF: 10.09 – 12.36 – Buy under: 7.72 – 9.45 (MOS: -25% -> -2%) – EY%: Buy below 10.85, sell above 13.21 (MOS: -4.99% -> 1.34%) - I think the fair value probably range from 10.00 to 12.30. At the current price (12.88 as of 25 Mar 2014), CARLSBG is already fully valued or over valued. Besides, MOS derived from all models are not up to my benchmark. - The dividend return spread between GAB and CARLSBG vs the 10-year MGS yield has narrowed to only 30-40bpts vs the historical 10-year average of 280-290bpts. (Source: RHB) - Going forward, I remain conservative and skeptical above volume growth in the brewery sector as some reports show that the industry is saturated, coupled with several other external factors such as rising fuel costs, inflation as well as potential exposure to excise duty hike in the near future. However, earnings should be sustainable at current levels. - 2014 will be a challenging year for brewers due to competition from contrabrand beers and as consumer spending dwindles. Fortunately, this will be partially alleviated by the Visit Malaysia Year 2014 event. - In my opinion, there is still some downside risk even though the share prices of both stocks have fallen sharply from last year’s peaks (down 30-45%). 10.24 – 11.50 is a good support zone, from technical aspect. Chances of CARLSBG dropping below this zone is low. - CARLSBG is determined to move away from a single star beer product company to become a star beer portfolio company. Over the past 10 years, CARLSBG has been trying to launch a couple of new products into the market. To date, however, its Carlsberg Green Label is still viewed as the group’s only crown jewel. As such, a reshuffle has been undertaken in its top management team over the last 2 to 3 years with the aim of bringing good changes to the group. Besides, it has also appointed a few brand managers to oversee the brand building efforts across a few main products, whereby premium brands are expected to form a larger proportion of its new product portfolio. While efforts are being made to build market share for its premium products, the Carlsberg Green Label will remain as the bread and butter of the group. Whether or not CARLSBG will be able to return to its former glory, it is still too early to tell, but the good efforts warrant CARLSBG a buy/hold call for the long term. There are downside risks if things do not turn out as expected. - I may accumulate CARLSBG if it dropped below 11.00. Latest Financial – Annual Report 2013 (26 Mar 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1575857 At the time of writing, I owned shares of CARLSBG. |
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Mar 27 2014, 09:04 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PANTECH Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/27/pa...is-27-mar-2014/ My View:- - Fair value/Market Timing - EY%: Buy below 0.64, sell above 1.18 - As of FY14 Q3, PANTECH recorded cumulative revenue 447,178 which is 30% lower than FY13 revenue 635,663. I think the next two quarters could be quiet for the trading division given that the fabrication and downstream oil and gas projects in Malaysia are still sluggish. PANTECH is still contesting the US anti-dumping suit in its stainless steel division. A resolution is expected by July-14. As mentioned previously, PANTECH’s alternative strategy is to shift production to higher-end stainless steel fittings production (which is not subject to such anti-dumping laws and have higher margins than stainless steel pipes); and is actively exploring other potential export markets such as South America and Europe. - PANTECH envisages better fortune from 2Q15 onwards, which would coincide with our view that fabrication contracts will likely only materialize from 2QCY14 onwards. - For more risks/challenges and growth drivers, please read http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2014/03...ly-22022014.pdf - I will put PANTECH in the Reserved List for the time being. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (22 Jan 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1522453 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of PANTECH. |
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Mar 27 2014, 09:54 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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HAIO Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/27/ha...is-27-mar-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5-Y DCF: 3.04 (Base) – 3.43 (Good). – Buy Under: 2.51 – 2.83 (MOS: 18% – 28%) – EY%: Buy below 2.40, sell above 3.18 – I think that HAIO is currently slightly undervalued. - Due to decline in the purchasing power of consumers and margins erosion due to the weakening of Ringgit against USD, I think HAIO FY14 performance will be mediocre. However, because healthcare product is quite essential nowadays, the impact will be short term only. With its expansion to Indonesian market, HAIO will have greater potential, rather than just focus on Malaysia market. – While I am positive on HAIO’s longer-term prospects as its MLM division is intensifying its product strategy by focusing on more "small ticket" items, which are affordable, the rise in operating cost and the depreciation of Ringgit would continue to affect their margins, going forward. - I will continue to hold HAIO, and accumulate HAIO whenever possible. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (26 Mar 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1576949 At the time of writing, I owned shares of HAIO. |
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Mar 28 2014, 03:43 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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KMLOONG Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/28/km...is-28-mar-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5-Y DCF – 3.47 – 3.87 – Buy under: 2.84 – 3.16 (MOS: 21% – 29%) – EY% – Buy below 2.47, sell above 3.31 – In my opinion, 3.4 – 3.8 is fair value range for KMLOONG. KMLOONG is currently undervalued. - The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. In a worst case scenario, KMLOONG, a net cash company with a low cost of production and an experienced management team would be able to withstand the turbulence and even take up expansion opportunities. - Going forward, I expect KMLOONG to perform better in FY15 as it plans to improve production, while benefiting from favourable palm oil prices. - Recently, I have purchased KMLOONG at 2.8, and then 2.74. Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (27 Mar 2013) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1577605 At the time of writing, I owned shares of KMLOONG. |
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Mar 28 2014, 06:03 PM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#266
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Mar 28 2014, 03:43 PM) KMLOONG Analysis:- As you mention before, the resistance is between 2.8 and 2.6 from 2008. Now the price is at resistance range, why don't you purchase it at lower price later?http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/28/km...is-28-mar-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5-Y DCF – 3.47 – 3.87 – Buy under: 2.84 – 3.16 (MOS: 21% – 29%) – EY% – Buy below 2.47, sell above 3.31 – In my opinion, 3.4 – 3.8 is fair value range for KMLOONG. KMLOONG is currently undervalued. - The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. In a worst case scenario, KMLOONG, a net cash company with a low cost of production and an experienced management team would be able to withstand the turbulence and even take up expansion opportunities. - Going forward, I expect KMLOONG to perform better in FY15 as it plans to improve production, while benefiting from favourable palm oil prices. - Recently, I have purchased KMLOONG at 2.8, and then 2.74. Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (27 Mar 2013) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1577605 At the time of writing, I owned shares of KMLOONG. |
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Mar 28 2014, 07:52 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(500Kmission @ Mar 28 2014, 06:03 PM) As you mention before, the resistance is between 2.8 and 2.6 from 2008. Now the price is at resistance range, why don't you purchase it at lower price later? You are right. I did consider this. After considering potential CPO bullish and also strong bullish breakout (with high volume) on 7 Mar, I think it should be OK to buy KMLOONG. |
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Mar 28 2014, 08:08 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PADINI Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/28/pa...is-28-mar-2014/ My View:- - Fair value/Marketing Timing – 5Y DCF: 2.98 – 3.38 – Buy under: 2.51 – 2.85 (MOS: 37% – 45%) – EY%: Buy under 2.00, sell above 2.80 - Looks like PADINI is currently undervalued and quite attrative. - New 3 Brands Outlet stores and a Padini Concept store were opened in the current financial year. In the coming months, there are plans to add another 3 Brands Outlet stores and another 2 Padini Concept stores which would add upwards of 90k sq ft of retail floor space to >800k sq ft. In addition to the new store openings, we are positive on the changes made to merchandise development and pricing strategies, which would allow PADINI to capitalise on the Visit Malaysia Year 2014. – Five out of the nine new stores in FY14 are located in Miri, Seremban and Langkawi. They will provide the group with new revenue stream from the less competitive markets in the second tier cities. - Based on the growth analysis, PADINI has great potential to have higher net profit and owner earnings in FY14. - I will consider to buy PADINI. May be my wife will buy it. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (26 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1549673 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of PADINI. |
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Mar 28 2014, 11:48 PM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#269
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Mar 28 2014, 08:08 PM) PADINI Analysis:- Do you know the share price has dropped from 2.33 on Aug 2012 till now with rm2 resistance? So it may have some correction later based on technical analysis. Just my opinion.http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/28/pa...is-28-mar-2014/ My View:- - Fair value/Marketing Timing – 5Y DCF: 2.98 – 3.38 – Buy under: 2.51 – 2.85 (MOS: 37% – 45%) – EY%: Buy under 2.00, sell above 2.80 - Looks like PADINI is currently undervalued and quite attrative. - New 3 Brands Outlet stores and a Padini Concept store were opened in the current financial year. In the coming months, there are plans to add another 3 Brands Outlet stores and another 2 Padini Concept stores which would add upwards of 90k sq ft of retail floor space to >800k sq ft. In addition to the new store openings, we are positive on the changes made to merchandise development and pricing strategies, which would allow PADINI to capitalise on the Visit Malaysia Year 2014. – Five out of the nine new stores in FY14 are located in Miri, Seremban and Langkawi. They will provide the group with new revenue stream from the less competitive markets in the second tier cities. - Based on the growth analysis, PADINI has great potential to have higher net profit and owner earnings in FY14. - I will consider to buy PADINI. May be my wife will buy it. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (26 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1549673 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of PADINI. This post has been edited by 500Kmission: Mar 28 2014, 11:48 PM |
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Mar 30 2014, 01:18 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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ARMADA Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/30/ar...is-30-mar-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – EY%: 4.15 – 6.21 - With Current orderbook is approximately RM13.2b with optional contract extensions of RM8.9b. - By looking at price chart, 4.08 – 4.16 is a very strong resistance zone. The positives are: – 3.5 – 3.7 is a very strong support zone. – Spotted 4 higher lows. - I revisited ARMADA on 30 Mar and decided to move it to the Discontinued List. Reasons: – Despite improving revenue and net profit, CROIC, ROIC, Gross Profit Margin and Net Profit Margin are declining in the past 4 years. – This company is also highly leveraged. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (20 Feb 2013) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1543993 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of ARMADA. |
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Apr 2 2014, 01:18 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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UNIMECH Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/04/02/un...sis-2-apr-2014/ My View:- - Market Timing – EY%: Buy under 1.46, sell above 1.89 - Analyst foresees better outlook for Unimech in FY14-FY15. We expect net profit to register a 3-year CAGR growth of 12.0% in FY15 on the back of 10.4% growth in revenue. We forecast net profit reaching RM26.20mn and RM28.6mn in FY14-FY15 while revenue will be RM263.9mn and RM295.0mn, respectively. Revenue growth is expected to be driven by generally higher demand for VFI and Pumps products in the domestic and overseas market. The VFI and Pumps division is expected to grow by 14% and 7%, respectively in FY14. On top of that the expansion of distribution network and warehouse to overseas market, especially Indonesia and Thailand, will also help the group better serve its existing customers and gains new customers. - For the time being, I think UNIMECH is currently overvalued. - I will compare UNIMECH with PANTECH very soon. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (27 Feb 2013) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1552485 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of UNIMECH. |
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Apr 2 2014, 08:01 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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JTINTER Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/04/02/jt...sis-2-apr-2014/ My View:- - Market Timing – EY%: Buy below 6.12, sell above 7.18 – 5Y DCF: 6.43 – 7.38; 5Y RDCF: 1% growth rate – Recently, JTINTER dropped from 6.6 to 6.25 which is quite close to 6.18 (EY%) – Based on analysts’ consensus, JTINTER’s net cash may hit MYR1/share in FY15. JTINTER has, in the past, paid dividends of 15 to 75sen/share when its net cash reached MYR1/share. Its latest net cash stood at 43.8sen/share at end- Dec 2013. - Analysts expect industry sales volume to contract by 6% in 2014 and 2015 respectively following the recent 14% hike in selling prices. Besides, JTINTER management expects operating environment to remain extremely challenging, primarily due to the hike in excise duty and cigarette prices. In addition, consumption is expected to be impacted by continued inflationary pressures and weak consumer sentiment. - JTINTER is one of the most defensive stocks in my equity holdings. - JTINTER had received a conditional takeover offer from JT International Holding BV (JTIH), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Japan Tobacco Inc, to acquire the remaining 39.6% stake or 103.6m shares it does not already own in JTI at RM7.80/share, a 20% premium to its pre-suspension price of RM6.50. JTIH currently holds 60.4% of the share capital of JTI. In making the offer, it does not intend to maintain the listing status of JTI. Other major shareholders of JTI include the Employees Provident Fund (8.13%) and Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (6.84%). (Apr 2014) – JTI’s business is still very cash generative and investors could undoubtedly hold out for higher dividends – the company tends to pay out special dividends whenever its cash/share hits MYR1. Nevertheless, this is expected to happen only in FY16. Current yields, meanwhile, are about fair at 3.4%. – Based on my valuation, this is a great deal. I think the takeover offer is a fantastic opportunity to exit this sunset industry. Latest Financial – Annual Report 2013 (2 Apr 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1583333 At the time of writing, I owned shares of JTINTER. |
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Apr 9 2014, 03:18 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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ALLIANZ Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/04/09/al...sis-9-apr-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value/Market Timing – 5Y DCF: 23.11 – 26.33 (MOS: 54% – 60%) – EY% (FY15): Buy under 8.45, sell above 14.00 (MOS: 24.26%) - I think MH370 incident will give negative impact to ALLIANZ in short term. So far, ALLIANZ only identified 5 of the passengers are their client. – For some people, this is a risk, but I view this as an good opportunity. - ALLIANZ’s dividend payout is extremely low, so never expect good dividend from them. Reasons: – High capital or surplus retained due to nature of industry – Stringent regulatory requirement to protect policyholders’ interest – Managing stringent capital buffer to withstand adverse or unfavorable experience - Unlike LPI (general insurance and financing on leases), ALLIANZ is heavily dependence on single segment: motor insurance; and also dependence on agent for life insurance. ALLIANZ requires high capital to grow distribution capabilities, and fund new business growth. - Balance float of outstanding shares is very low: 4.20%. - My wife and I are considering to buy ALLIANZ with our joint account, while my wife already owned shares of LPI. - References: – https://www.allianz.com.my/web/lna/10074/10064/2014# – http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/rhb/47700.jsp Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (28 Feb 2013) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1553281 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of ALLIANZ. |
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Apr 9 2014, 03:39 PM
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Senior Member
16,872 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Apr 9 2014, 03:18 PM) ALLIANZ Analysis:- But I know several dividend-focused unit trust funds that hold Allianz...perhaps they foresee it to be a future cash cow stock?http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/04/09/al...sis-9-apr-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value/Market Timing – 5Y DCF: 23.11 – 26.33 (MOS: 54% – 60%) – EY% (FY15): Buy under 8.45, sell above 14.00 (MOS: 24.26%) - I think MH370 incident will give negative impact to ALLIANZ in short term. So far, ALLIANZ only identified 5 of the passengers are their client. – For some people, this is a risk, but I view this as an good opportunity. - ALLIANZ’s dividend payout is extremely low, so never expect good dividend from them. Reasons: – High capital or surplus retained due to nature of industry – Stringent regulatory requirement to protect policyholders’ interest – Managing stringent capital buffer to withstand adverse or unfavorable experience - Unlike LPI (general insurance and financing on leases), ALLIANZ is heavily dependence on single segment: motor insurance; and also dependence on agent for life insurance. ALLIANZ requires high capital to grow distribution capabilities, and fund new business growth. - Balance float of outstanding shares is very low: 4.20%. - My wife and I are considering to buy ALLIANZ with our joint account, while my wife already owned shares of LPI. - References: – https://www.allianz.com.my/web/lna/10074/10064/2014# – http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/rhb/47700.jsp Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (28 Feb 2013) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1553281 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of ALLIANZ. |
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Apr 9 2014, 03:45 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Apr 9 2014, 03:39 PM) But I know several dividend-focused unit trust funds that hold Allianz...perhaps they foresee it to be a future cash cow stock? That may takes some times, but in overall, ALLIANZ's outlook is good |
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Apr 9 2014, 03:53 PM
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Senior Member
8,259 posts Joined: Sep 2009
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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Apr 9 2014, 04:39 PM) But I know several dividend-focused unit trust funds that hold Allianz...perhaps they foresee it to be a future cash cow stock? ya, I also noticed that.. So buy?! haha... |
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Apr 9 2014, 04:09 PM
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Senior Member
16,872 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(Kaka23 @ Apr 9 2014, 03:53 PM) ya, I also noticed that.. So buy?! haha... U already got Hwang funds...so stay away, later u over-exposed to Allianz |
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Apr 9 2014, 04:13 PM
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Senior Member
8,259 posts Joined: Sep 2009
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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Apr 9 2014, 05:09 PM) U already got Hwang funds...so stay away, later u over-exposed to Allianz I think Hwang dump the stock already la, no more in their 10 ten stocks list... |
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Apr 9 2014, 04:15 PM
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Senior Member
16,872 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(Kaka23 @ Apr 9 2014, 04:13 PM) I think Hwang dump the stock already la, no more in their 10 ten stocks list... Minimum dividend yield I require from my stocks is 3%, if the stock got decent growth potential.For stagnant stocks I'd require at least 5% yield. So, Allianz doesn't fit in. |
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Apr 9 2014, 05:17 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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ALLIANZ is mainly for capital gain. just ignore dividend....
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Apr 9 2014, 05:37 PM
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Senior Member
8,259 posts Joined: Sep 2009
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Apr 9 2014, 06:17 PM) ALLIANZ is mainly for capital gain. just ignore dividend.... Pink gor sees it as stagnant stock lei.. |
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Apr 9 2014, 06:05 PM
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Senior Member
16,872 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(Kaka23 @ Apr 9 2014, 05:37 PM) Pink gor sees it as stagnant stock lei.. bila aku cakap itu?  |
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Apr 9 2014, 08:38 PM
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Senior Member
8,259 posts Joined: Sep 2009
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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Apr 9 2014, 07:05 PM) bila aku cakap itu? Err.. Your post here is not that meaning? |
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Apr 9 2014, 08:39 PM
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Senior Member
8,259 posts Joined: Sep 2009
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I mean post 279
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Apr 9 2014, 09:20 PM
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Senior Member
16,872 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(Kaka23 @ Apr 9 2014, 08:39 PM) I mean post 279 Allianz is growing BUT its yield doesn't even come close to 3%, hence I'm not interested. |
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Apr 9 2014, 09:35 PM
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Senior Member
1,021 posts Joined: Jun 2012
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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Apr 9 2014, 09:20 PM) Allianz is growing BUT its yield doesn't even come close to 3%, hence I'm not interested. Hello can ask something?Hwang curent price * 1,000unit = 4,450. meaning to say i get dividend for 2500? right? Not understand the disadvantage? |
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Apr 9 2014, 10:03 PM
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Senior Member
16,872 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(tstan8_8 @ Apr 9 2014, 09:35 PM) Hello can ask something? don't understand your questionHwang curent price * 1,000unit = 4,450. meaning to say i get dividend for 2500? right? Not understand the disadvantage? |
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Apr 10 2014, 08:51 AM
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Senior Member
1,021 posts Joined: Jun 2012
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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Apr 9 2014, 10:03 PM) don't understand your question  |
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Apr 10 2014, 10:30 AM
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Senior Member
1,177 posts Joined: Nov 2007
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QUOTE(tstan8_8 @ Apr 9 2014, 09:35 PM) Hello can ask something? It's a special dividend due to the sale of Hwang's investment banking business to Affin. Theoretically, after the ex-date of the special dividend, the share price of Hwang should go down by the same amount as the dividend to reflect the lowered net asset value of the company.Hwang curent price * 1,000unit = 4,450. meaning to say i get dividend for 2500? right? Not understand the disadvantage? |
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Apr 10 2014, 01:31 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PETGAS Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/04/10/pe...is-10-apr-2014/ My View:- - Fair value – 5Y DCF: 23.89 – 27.82 (MOS: 0% – 14%) – FY15 EY%: 17.13 – 20.17 (MOS: -18.38%) - PETGAS is current fully valued. MOS for PETGAS should be 20%. - Overall, the new GPTA will ensure that PETGAS will deliver sustainable, steady earnings and cashflow, while providing an incentive for the company to improve efficiency. Although there are major changes in various components of the GPTA, the impact on PETGAS’s earnings is largely neutral. PETGAS would receive a higher reservation charge (RC), based on the higher per unit charge of RM2,330/mmscf (from RM1,642/mmscf previously) but this is based on lower volume of 1,750 mmscfd (from 2,100 mmscfd previously). Furthermore, the flowrate charge for volumes above the 1,750 mmscfd threshold is now a lower RM0.20/GJ (from RM0.22/GJ previously). Its performance-based structure (PBS) for the additional sales of ethane, propane and butane has also been revised, which we estimate will result in lower revenue. PETGAS’s transportation charges have also been revised to a single levelised postage tariff for the entire Peninsular Malaysia, which would also result in lower revenue in FY14. - On the other hand, PETGAS will be involved in the LNG RGT for the just approved RAPID project in Pengerang. Capacity of the RGT in RAPID will be similar to that of Melaka RGT, with c.80% capacity mainly catering to RAPID. Management expects the FID of this LNG RGT to be out in two months’ time. Assuming the refinery start-up is by early 2019, the RGT would possibly be ready by mid-2018. Thus, earnings contribution would only be seen from 2Q18 onwards. - I believe that there will not be any significant movement in Petronas Gas’s share price in the near term. - I will continue to hold PETGAS. Latest Financial – Annual Report 2013 (9 Apr 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1589513 At the time of writing, I owned shares of PETGAS. |
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Apr 10 2014, 02:54 PM
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All Stars
11,954 posts Joined: May 2007
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Fibon 0149 ?
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Apr 10 2014, 05:40 PM
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Junior Member
290 posts Joined: Dec 2010
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Mar 1 2014, 11:06 AM) VITROX Analysis:- I actually know a senior manager working in Vitrox. He doesn't seem to find Vitrox's share very attractive at this point. Just his opinion though.http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/01/vi...sis-1-mar-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – 5Y DCF: 1.49 – 1.68 (MOS: 11% – 22%) – VITROX is still undervalued. Market Timing: – EY%: Buy below 0.79, sell above 1.51 - I believe that FY14 will be a growth year for VITROX because of the recovery of global semiconductor industry and improving US, Japan and European markets. - I will accumulate VITROX if it formed a strong support level. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (27 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1551141 At the time of writing, I owned shares of VITROX. |
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Apr 11 2014, 02:20 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PADINI Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/04/11/pa...is-11-apr-2014/ My View:- - Fair value/Marketing Timing – 5Y DCF: 2.50 – 2.83 – Buy under: 2.02 – 2.29 (MOS: 30% – 38%) – EY%: Buy under 2.02, sell above 2.82 - Looks like PADINI is currently undervalued and quite attractive. - New 3 Brands Outlet stores and a Padini Concept store were opened in the current financial year. In the coming months, there are plans to add another 3 Brands Outlet stores and another 2 Padini Concept stores which would add upwards of 90k sq ft of retail floor space to >800k sq ft. In addition to the new store openings, we are positive on the changes made to merchandise development and pricing strategies, which would allow PADINI to capitalise on the Visit Malaysia Year 2014. – Five out of the nine new stores in FY14 are located in Miri, Seremban and Langkawi. They will provide the group with new revenue stream from the less competitive markets in the second tier cities. - Based on the growth analysis, PADINI has great potential to have higher net profit and owner earnings in FY14. - For recent sector analysis, please read http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2014/03...ly-15032014.pdf - Few readers asked whether I have purchased PADINI. My response is NOT YET. Reasons: – After discussed with my wife, PADINI’s growth drivers do not give her the confidence to invest the money. – I also considered to invest my own money. I don’t mind to pay some premiums for buying PADINI, but after analysed its chart, it has tendency to decline. I might be able to grab some PADINI at cheaper price. Who knows…. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (26 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1549673 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of PADINI.  |
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Apr 12 2014, 09:06 AM
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Senior Member
4,499 posts Joined: Mar 2014
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Apr 11 2014, 02:20 PM) PADINI Analysis:- Thank you sir for sharing your research! |
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Apr 13 2014, 12:07 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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GKENT Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/04/13/gk...is-13-apr-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – 5Y DCF: 2.85 – 3.19 (MOS: 40% – 47%) – FY16 EY%: 1.48 – 2.47 (MOS: 31%) - I still need to further study GKENT’s risks and challenges. - GKENT has very strong competitive advantages where it is in a very good position in building wide economic moats. - GKENT has been moving in the range from 0.4 to 1.7 since 2004. It couldn’t break 1.7 twice (2004 and 2010). However, since 28 Mar 2014, GKENT has been so bullish (without obvious correction) and closed at 1.7 on 11 Apr 2014. For those investors who spotted and invested GKENT at lower price, thumb up to them. - I am keen to buy GKENT, but I rather wait GKENT to form a strong support above 1.7. I will consider buying GKENT if that happens. Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (27 Mar 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1577701 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of GKENT. This post has been edited by lcchong76: Apr 13 2014, 08:58 AM |
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Apr 13 2014, 08:31 AM
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Senior Member
10,001 posts Joined: May 2013
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Apr 13 2014, 12:07 AM) PADINI Analysis:- Title is Padini n analysis is Gkent?- I still need to further study GKENT’s risks and challenges. - GKENT has very strong competitive advantages where it is in a very good position in building wide economic moats. - GKENT has been moving in the range from 0.4 to 1.7 since 2004. It couldn’t break 1.7 twice (2004 and 2010). However, since 28 Mar 2014, GKENT has been so bullish (without obvious correction) and closed at 1.7 on 11 Apr 2014. For those investors who spotted and invested GKENT at lower price, thumb up to them. - I am keen to buy GKENT, but I rather wait GKENT to form a strong support above 1.7. I will consider buying GKENT if that happens. Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (27 Mar 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1577701 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of GKENT. |
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Apr 13 2014, 08:58 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Apr 13 2014, 08:31 AM) Title is Padini n analysis is Gkent? Copy paste error |
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Apr 13 2014, 01:58 PM
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Senior Member
8,259 posts Joined: Sep 2009
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Haha.. Blur already
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Apr 13 2014, 03:32 PM
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Senior Member
8,259 posts Joined: Sep 2009
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Apr 9 2014, 06:17 PM) ALLIANZ is mainly for capital gain. just ignore dividend.... you think the price can come down in near term? |
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Apr 13 2014, 05:17 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(Kaka23 @ Apr 13 2014, 03:32 PM) you think the price can come down in near term? Err.... not sure. |
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Apr 20 2014, 10:54 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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BURSA Analysis:-
Excel – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/04/20/bu...is-20-apr-2014/ My View:- - Market Timing: – EY%: Buy below 8.27, sell above 11.06 - In my opinion, in FY14, the following risks will outweigh the growth drivers – Withdrawal of foreign investors in very large scale. – US QE taper will cause higher volatility in the market. This may cause investors stay out of (or monitor) the equity market. - Despite risks of higher volatility due to QE taper, The 1Q14 earnings results were, in all, a good start to the year for Bursa. The increased interest by retail investors, in particular, is a positive sign. Local institutions remain a steady presence in the market, buffering stocks from the worst of the effects of selling by foreign investors. - I remain sanguine on the company’s outlook over the longer term, as a proxy for the country’s growth. Its business model is also fairly resilient. As mentioned above, recurring and other incomes, including interest income, is sufficient to cover some 91% of total operating expenses. - I may/may not accumulate BURSA in the near term. Let see how it goes. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (17 Apr 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1595933 At the time of writing, I owned shares of BURSA. |
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Apr 22 2014, 11:54 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PBBANK Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/04/22/pb...is-22-apr-2014/ My View:- - Fair values/Market Timing: – 5Y DCF: 18.28 – 21.35 (MOS: -10% – 5%) – EY%: Buy below 17.76, sell above 22.36 (MOS: 9.64%) – MOS to be used is 23.47% – By looking at the fair values, I think PBBANK is now fully valued (or a bit overvalued). Even if the models proposed fair value above 20.00, but the MOS is not higher than 23%. - PBBANK has been climbing up since Jul 2012 with couple of small corrections. In my opinion, PBBANK may starts to range somewhere around 20.00. - In FY14-FY15, intense competition amongst financial institutions for market share as well as the need for higher capital conservation due to the requirements of Basel III capital framework, will continue to put pressure on pricing of products and return on equity. PBBANK growth will be slowing down, and this is proven from the declining ROE in the past 5 years. - I will continue to hold and monitor PBBANK, but will not accumulate PBBANK at this moment. After holding PBBANK for almost 15 years, the dividend gains covered almost 95% of my cost. I will just let it float with so called "cost free". Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (21 Apr 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1598265 At the time of writing, I owned shares of PBBANK. |
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Apr 27 2014, 12:18 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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TENAGA Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/04/27/te...is-27-apr-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – Absolute EY%: Buy below 10.61, sell above 13.97 (MOS: 14.52%) - The new tariff rates, which took effect from 1st Jan 14, are expected to boost bottom-line by RM1.17b per annum. While a review on tariff structure is expected every six months, the tariff is expected to stay unchanged at least till Dec 2014 given the recent wave of subsidies cut, which had resulted in rising living cost and inflationary pressure. Moving forward, when a new set of fuel cost pass-through mechanism is in place, TENAGA’s earnings are expected to stabilise. Its financial performance would then depend mainly on its operational efficiency. – The tariff review in Jun could also bring about more earnings visibility, as it could signal that the government will continue to allow Tenaga to review its tariff in order to facilitate the pass-through of costs. - Tenaga declared an interim single-tier dividend of 10 sen per share, representing 27% of its free cashflow. Dividends were in line as we expect dividends to be stronger moving forward given that it is committed to paying 40-60% of its annual free cashflow. - In my opinion, the current price already factored in the growth drivers and risks. - I will continue to hold TENAGA, and may accumulate TENAGA in the future. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (24 Apr 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1602769 At the time of writing, I owned shares of TENAGA. |
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Apr 27 2014, 04:56 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DIGI Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/04/27/di...is-27-apr-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5Y DCF: 4.97 – 5.68 (MOS: -8% – 6%) – EY%: Buy below 5.08, sell above 5.62 – Both models indicate that DIGI is either overvalued or fully valued. - The outperformance of 4Q13 was mainly due to lower-than-expected depreciation and taxes. I am not sure whether this is something recurring for long term. - With Internet subscribers increased by 14.5% and blended ARPU increased by a modest 2.1% to RM48, I am quite positive with DIGI future prospects. - DiGi.Com attributed the better results to higher usage of mobile Internet services with Internet customers growing to four million from three million a year ago, contributing RM374 million to its revenue in FY14Q1. - However, I believe that DIGI is currently fully (or nearly) valued. - The last time I accumulated DIGI was in Jul 2013 at 4.66. Thus, I won’t accumulate DIGI for the time being. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (25 Apr 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1604049 At the time of writing, I owned shares of DIGI. |
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Apr 27 2014, 11:06 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PANTECH Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/04/27/pa...is-27-apr-2014/ My View:- - Fair value/Market Timing – EY%: Buy below 0.82, sell above 1.30 - The next two quarters could be quiet for the trading division given that the fabrication and downstream oil and gas projects is likely to only pick up from 2HCY14 onwards which coincides with PANTECH’s 2Q15 earnings. - The outcome for the US anti-dumping suit that affects PANTECH’s stainless steel division is expected by July-14. As mentioned previously, PANTECH’s alternative strategy is to shift production to higher-end stainless steel fittings production (which is not subject to such anti-dumping laws and have higher margins than stainless steel pipes); and is actively exploring other potential export markets such as South America and Europe. - For more risks/challenges and growth drivers, please read http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2014/03...ly-22022014.pdf - For the time being, I am not so keen to invest in PANTECH. Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (24 Apr 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1602845 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of PANTECH. |
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Apr 28 2014, 04:40 PM
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Junior Member
359 posts Joined: Mar 2014
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Hi there! It looks like u r a stock enthusiast who has plenty of experience in d stock market.
I wud like 2 consult u d following: 1. When selecting stocks, which of these is of utmost importance if I wan 2 invest 4 d long-term? Is it dividend yield, net tangible assets backing per share or price earnings ratio? 2. How can we differentiate d gud stocks frm d bad? e.g. If an individual bought Dlady in 2009, which was around RM12/ share, he or she wud hav profited greatly as d price of Dutchlady now is around RM48. On the other hand, if an individual bought Shell in 2009, he or she wudnt benefited much as d price hovers around RM6-RM10. 3. Warren Buffett practises value-based investing, and he studies annual reports. My question is, wat information frm annual reports r supposed to be analysed? I tried analysing several ann. reps. but I still cant understand it, as its all figures & numbers, names of people running d company, etc... 4. Shud youngsters in their 20s invest in stocks which offer high dividends or shares dat can grow in many yrs time to get capital gain? I'm juz a student, so naturally I'm confused about d stockmarket. I know d importance of financial freedom and wud like 2 gain more knowledge bout stok picking. |
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Apr 29 2014, 03:38 AM
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Junior Member
90 posts Joined: Sep 2012
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I am only able to answer 4.
It depends on your risk appetite and how much you have got to lose. Do you know which shares can gain a lot in many years? If not, just go for a strong fundamental company with dividend. If you are looking for a place to keep your money with higher returns. Dividend stock might just be a better deal than saving your money in the bank. |
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Apr 29 2014, 12:37 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(stickmanchong17 @ Apr 28 2014, 04:40 PM) Hi there! It looks like u r a stock enthusiast who has plenty of experience in d stock market. Untitled2 answered your fourth question. I wud like 2 consult u d following: 1. When selecting stocks, which of these is of utmost importance if I wan 2 invest 4 d long-term? Is it dividend yield, net tangible assets backing per share or price earnings ratio? 2. How can we differentiate d gud stocks frm d bad? e.g. If an individual bought Dlady in 2009, which was around RM12/ share, he or she wud hav profited greatly as d price of Dutchlady now is around RM48. On the other hand, if an individual bought Shell in 2009, he or she wudnt benefited much as d price hovers around RM6-RM10. 3. Warren Buffett practises value-based investing, and he studies annual reports. My question is, wat information frm annual reports r supposed to be analysed? I tried analysing several ann. reps. but I still cant understand it, as its all figures & numbers, names of people running d company, etc... 4. Shud youngsters in their 20s invest in stocks which offer high dividends or shares dat can grow in many yrs time to get capital gain? I'm juz a student, so naturally I'm confused about d stockmarket. I know d importance of financial freedom and wud like 2 gain more knowledge bout stok picking. As for the rest, I may have to write a book to answer. |
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Apr 29 2014, 02:25 PM
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Junior Member
359 posts Joined: Mar 2014
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QUOTE(Untitled2 @ Apr 29 2014, 03:38 AM) I am only able to answer 4. Indeed. Here goes my plan towards financial stability. (Roughly) I plan 2 put money in FD first. (to create a reserves fund) Then, I'll try investing in shares. After dat, I'll go for real estate. It depends on your risk appetite and how much you have got to lose. Do you know which shares can gain a lot in many years? If not, just go for a strong fundamental company with dividend. If you are looking for a place to keep your money with higher returns. Dividend stock might just be a better deal than saving your money in the bank. Recently, I read a newspaper articlce dat putting money into d stockmarket will enable u to gain in d long term, provided I invest correctly, and d profit exceeds FD. I oso understand dat putting lots of cash in d bank will be killed slowly by inflation. |
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Apr 29 2014, 02:31 PM
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Junior Member
359 posts Joined: Mar 2014
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Apr 29 2014, 12:37 PM) Untitled2 answered your fourth question. As for the rest, I may have to write a book to answer.  Oh. Definitely not d answer I was searching for nor hoped for... Anyway, thx for replying~ Yes, wif d knowledge and experience, u could consider writing a book for newbies like me. Probably it'll bcome a bestseller~ |
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 Apr 29 2014, 04:04 PM
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Junior Member
90 posts Joined: Sep 2012
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QUOTE(stickmanchong17 @ Apr 29 2014, 02:25 PM) Indeed. Here goes my plan towards financial stability. (Roughly) I plan 2 put money in FD first. (to create a reserves fund) Then, I'll try investing in shares. After dat, I'll go for real estate. If you invest in the right stock, you will be rewarded. In fact, the best way to make more money, is by spending wisely. I can say that many people who invest and reap some return from it, will eventually spend on things they don't really need. Recently, I read a newspaper articlce dat putting money into d stockmarket will enable u to gain in d long term, provided I invest correctly, and d profit exceeds FD. I oso understand dat putting lots of cash in d bank will be killed slowly by inflation.I started investing pretty early age of 24 too. I was so excited with the stock market thinking that making money though it would be easy. I did a test run with simulated stock market based on actual live performance. The result was pretty good. I spend 1 hour before the market open, doing some quick research on possibly top performer of the day and set a plan on what to buy n sell within a day (Day Trading) then I trade on the market till the market close. It was pretty good at first but after 6month of doing that, I notice that you are just placing bets, you may make RM1,4k per day and the next day, RM200, another day RM2,000 then after that, -RM2000. Its all plus plus and minus minus. In the end, you probably end up around the same figure as you invested, but you spend the whole day trading. I would have earn RM5k on first month with 8k Capital, but you can easily lose that amount the next month.. I was lucky I stop after 6month and reap RM2,000 earnings from it. I then know if I don't stop, either I end up losing everything, or breakeven, or maybe if "lucky" you can make much more ? (Even if you earn much more, you might possibly lose everything one day) Btw, it wasn't easy. I spent 4 hours at night looking through a few good companies and active counters of the day. Study the technical chart and historical trends (Day trade is based more on technical analysis to me) 1-2 hour before trading opens to see how much queue on a stock, n check if theres any last minute annoucement. Then I converted to Middle to Long term Investor. On counters that will see growth in 6 month, 1 year, or 3-5years in the future. The growth is there, but I believe the KLSE isn't as volatile as many other exchanges. It has been improving these years which is good. Stocks that are good are starting to move. I start to make 10-30% a year on more conservative stock trading. ( I am keeping to this strategy, less stress everyday and that's the wise way of investing.) The lesson i learn is, 1. I wont take the money that I gained from stock trading, out of my trading account. Because it will be reinvested and your money will grow. If you take it out, you will think of what to buy with the RM300 you make, leaving a net of 0% increase in your pocket. 2. Rumour and speculation is dangerous. If i tell you this lousy stock will jump tomorrow, its a 50-50 chance. Invest with some risk management. 3. Policies & the Economy changes every now and then, you will always update yourself everyday. The Business section of newspaper is a good source but a bit slow. I am heavily relying on TheEdgeMalaysia on mobile phone. Getting the latest update might give you first hand information on what is the good stock of tomorrow. (E.G if MRT Project, Iskandar Project, High Speed Rail, Oil Exploration, all these news have impact on certain sector. It will move construction sector and other supporting industry, you will be expecting additional revenue in these company) Until today, I can never call myself a investing guru, I know am still lacking a lot of investment knowledge. As long as i stick to my principle and try my best to resist temptation, you will likely to earn more money here than FD or any Bank plans. I still have a lot of stories but aiya, cut things short. lolz By the way, I never gambled in any casino not even for leisure. Not even Chinese New Year. Because I believe the only way to win money through gambling, is to open a casino, and not placing bets. This post has been edited by Untitled2: Apr 29 2014, 04:11 PM |
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Apr 30 2014, 01:36 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(Untitled2 @ Apr 29 2014, 04:04 PM) If you invest in the right stock, you will be rewarded. In fact, the best way to make more money, is by spending wisely. I can say that many people who invest and reap some return from it, will eventually spend on things they don't really need. like!I started investing pretty early age of 24 too. I was so excited with the stock market thinking that making money though it would be easy. I did a test run with simulated stock market based on actual live performance. The result was pretty good. I spend 1 hour before the market open, doing some quick research on possibly top performer of the day and set a plan on what to buy n sell within a day (Day Trading) then I trade on the market till the market close. It was pretty good at first but after 6month of doing that, I notice that you are just placing bets, you may make RM1,4k per day and the next day, RM200, another day RM2,000 then after that, -RM2000. Its all plus plus and minus minus. In the end, you probably end up around the same figure as you invested, but you spend the whole day trading. I would have earn RM5k on first month with 8k Capital, but you can easily lose that amount the next month.. I was lucky I stop after 6month and reap RM2,000 earnings from it. I then know if I don't stop, either I end up losing everything, or breakeven, or maybe if "lucky" you can make much more ? (Even if you earn much more, you might possibly lose everything one day) Btw, it wasn't easy. I spent 4 hours at night looking through a few good companies and active counters of the day. Study the technical chart and historical trends (Day trade is based more on technical analysis to me) 1-2 hour before trading opens to see how much queue on a stock, n check if theres any last minute annoucement. Then I converted to Middle to Long term Investor. On counters that will see growth in 6 month, 1 year, or 3-5years in the future. The growth is there, but I believe the KLSE isn't as volatile as many other exchanges. It has been improving these years which is good. Stocks that are good are starting to move. I start to make 10-30% a year on more conservative stock trading. ( I am keeping to this strategy, less stress everyday and that's the wise way of investing.) The lesson i learn is, 1. I wont take the money that I gained from stock trading, out of my trading account. Because it will be reinvested and your money will grow. If you take it out, you will think of what to buy with the RM300 you make, leaving a net of 0% increase in your pocket. 2. Rumour and speculation is dangerous. If i tell you this lousy stock will jump tomorrow, its a 50-50 chance. Invest with some risk management. 3. Policies & the Economy changes every now and then, you will always update yourself everyday. The Business section of newspaper is a good source but a bit slow. I am heavily relying on TheEdgeMalaysia on mobile phone. Getting the latest update might give you first hand information on what is the good stock of tomorrow. (E.G if MRT Project, Iskandar Project, High Speed Rail, Oil Exploration, all these news have impact on certain sector. It will move construction sector and other supporting industry, you will be expecting additional revenue in these company) Until today, I can never call myself a investing guru, I know am still lacking a lot of investment knowledge. As long as i stick to my principle and try my best to resist temptation, you will likely to earn more money here than FD or any Bank plans. I still have a lot of stories but aiya, cut things short. lolz By the way, I never gambled in any casino not even for leisure. Not even Chinese New Year. Because I believe the only way to win money through gambling, is to open a casino, and not placing bets. |
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Apr 30 2014, 01:36 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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AHEALTH Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/04/30/ah...is-30-apr-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value: – 5Y DCF: 6.87 – 6.70 (MOS: 23% – 33%) – EY%: 3.35 – 4.02 (MOS: -12%) - In 2013, RM 30 million was spent to acquire and retrofit a 50,000 square feet industrial building to support growing business volumes at Apex Pharma Marketing Pte Ltd in Singapore. – Thus, FY13 FCF is lower if compare to previous years. - As a pharmaceutical company, AHEALTH is a defensive company. However, what I dislike is balance float of shares in market is around 15% only. Liquidity of this stock is low. - I may buy some shares of AHEALTH in the future. I will continue to monitor it. Latest Financial – Annual Report 2013 (28 Apr 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1605913 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of AHEALTH. |
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Apr 30 2014, 08:31 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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In the updated AHEALTH analysis, I have added few more worksheets:
1. Quality Score – This table is not meant to eliminate a counter for the time being. For me, this scoring system acts as an alert system. For instance, if quality score of FY13 declined and lower than previous years, this will trigger an alert, and help me to identify the root cause.  2. Ownership Summary – This is self descriptive. 3. I added few comparison charts as requested by my wife. http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/04/30/qu...parison-charts/ |
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Apr 30 2014, 10:51 PM
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Senior Member
2,714 posts Joined: May 2008
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Nice chart you have there
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May 2 2014, 11:36 AM
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Junior Member
359 posts Joined: Mar 2014
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QUOTE(Untitled2 @ Apr 29 2014, 04:04 PM) If you invest in the right stock, you will be rewarded. In fact, the best way to make more money, is by spending wisely. I can say that many people who invest and reap some return from it, will eventually spend on things they don't really need. Good for you! Hope u succeed in investing in stocks! I started investing pretty early age of 24 too. I was so excited with the stock market thinking that making money though it would be easy. I did a test run with simulated stock market based on actual live performance. The result was pretty good. I spend 1 hour before the market open, doing some quick research on possibly top performer of the day and set a plan on what to buy n sell within a day (Day Trading) then I trade on the market till the market close. It was pretty good at first but after 6month of doing that, I notice that you are just placing bets, you may make RM1,4k per day and the next day, RM200, another day RM2,000 then after that, -RM2000. Its all plus plus and minus minus. In the end, you probably end up around the same figure as you invested, but you spend the whole day trading. I would have earn RM5k on first month with 8k Capital, but you can easily lose that amount the next month.. I was lucky I stop after 6month and reap RM2,000 earnings from it. I then know if I don't stop, either I end up losing everything, or breakeven, or maybe if "lucky" you can make much more ? (Even if you earn much more, you might possibly lose everything one day) Btw, it wasn't easy. I spent 4 hours at night looking through a few good companies and active counters of the day. Study the technical chart and historical trends (Day trade is based more on technical analysis to me) 1-2 hour before trading opens to see how much queue on a stock, n check if theres any last minute annoucement. Then I converted to Middle to Long term Investor. On counters that will see growth in 6 month, 1 year, or 3-5years in the future. The growth is there, but I believe the KLSE isn't as volatile as many other exchanges. It has been improving these years which is good. Stocks that are good are starting to move. I start to make 10-30% a year on more conservative stock trading. ( I am keeping to this strategy, less stress everyday and that's the wise way of investing.) The lesson i learn is, 1. I wont take the money that I gained from stock trading, out of my trading account. Because it will be reinvested and your money will grow. If you take it out, you will think of what to buy with the RM300 you make, leaving a net of 0% increase in your pocket. 2. Rumour and speculation is dangerous. If i tell you this lousy stock will jump tomorrow, its a 50-50 chance. Invest with some risk management. 3. Policies & the Economy changes every now and then, you will always update yourself everyday. The Business section of newspaper is a good source but a bit slow. I am heavily relying on TheEdgeMalaysia on mobile phone. Getting the latest update might give you first hand information on what is the good stock of tomorrow. (E.G if MRT Project, Iskandar Project, High Speed Rail, Oil Exploration, all these news have impact on certain sector. It will move construction sector and other supporting industry, you will be expecting additional revenue in these company) Until today, I can never call myself a investing guru, I know am still lacking a lot of investment knowledge. As long as i stick to my principle and try my best to resist temptation, you will likely to earn more money here than FD or any Bank plans. I still have a lot of stories but aiya, cut things short. lolz By the way, I never gambled in any casino not even for leisure. Not even Chinese New Year. Because I believe the only way to win money through gambling, is to open a casino, and not placing bets. Thx for sharing~ |
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May 2 2014, 04:23 PM
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Senior Member
1,021 posts Joined: Jun 2012
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QUOTE(Untitled2 @ Apr 29 2014, 04:04 PM) If you invest in the right stock, you will be rewarded. In fact, the best way to make more money, is by spending wisely. I can say that many people who invest and reap some return from it, will eventually spend on things they don't really need. i learn a lessonI started investing pretty early age of 24 too. I was so excited with the stock market thinking that making money though it would be easy. I did a test run with simulated stock market based on actual live performance. The result was pretty good. I spend 1 hour before the market open, doing some quick research on possibly top performer of the day and set a plan on what to buy n sell within a day (Day Trading) then I trade on the market till the market close. It was pretty good at first but after 6month of doing that, I notice that you are just placing bets, you may make RM1,4k per day and the next day, RM200, another day RM2,000 then after that, -RM2000. Its all plus plus and minus minus. In the end, you probably end up around the same figure as you invested, but you spend the whole day trading. I would have earn RM5k on first month with 8k Capital, but you can easily lose that amount the next month.. I was lucky I stop after 6month and reap RM2,000 earnings from it. I then know if I don't stop, either I end up losing everything, or breakeven, or maybe if "lucky" you can make much more ? (Even if you earn much more, you might possibly lose everything one day) Btw, it wasn't easy. I spent 4 hours at night looking through a few good companies and active counters of the day. Study the technical chart and historical trends (Day trade is based more on technical analysis to me) 1-2 hour before trading opens to see how much queue on a stock, n check if theres any last minute annoucement. Then I converted to Middle to Long term Investor. On counters that will see growth in 6 month, 1 year, or 3-5years in the future. The growth is there, but I believe the KLSE isn't as volatile as many other exchanges. It has been improving these years which is good. Stocks that are good are starting to move. I start to make 10-30% a year on more conservative stock trading. ( I am keeping to this strategy, less stress everyday and that's the wise way of investing.) The lesson i learn is, 1. I wont take the money that I gained from stock trading, out of my trading account. Because it will be reinvested and your money will grow. If you take it out, you will think of what to buy with the RM300 you make, leaving a net of 0% increase in your pocket. 2. Rumour and speculation is dangerous. If i tell you this lousy stock will jump tomorrow, its a 50-50 chance. Invest with some risk management. 3. Policies & the Economy changes every now and then, you will always update yourself everyday. The Business section of newspaper is a good source but a bit slow. I am heavily relying on TheEdgeMalaysia on mobile phone. Getting the latest update might give you first hand information on what is the good stock of tomorrow. (E.G if MRT Project, Iskandar Project, High Speed Rail, Oil Exploration, all these news have impact on certain sector. It will move construction sector and other supporting industry, you will be expecting additional revenue in these company) Until today, I can never call myself a investing guru, I know am still lacking a lot of investment knowledge. As long as i stick to my principle and try my best to resist temptation, you will likely to earn more money here than FD or any Bank plans. I still have a lot of stories but aiya, cut things short. lolz By the way, I never gambled in any casino not even for leisure. Not even Chinese New Year. Because I believe the only way to win money through gambling, is to open a casino, and not placing bets. |
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May 3 2014, 03:45 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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In addition to Quality Score, Ownership Summary and few comparison charts, I have added two more worksheets. You can see the latest changes by clicking here.
1. Table of Content – This is long waiting feature requested by few readers.  2. Stewardship analysis – 10 questions to evaluate company management or stewardship: Have most investments and acquisitions been in line with the company’s core competencies, or does management like to make diversifying acquisitions? All else equal, we prefer companies to stick with what they know best and strengthen their core businesses rather than engage in conglomerate building. Good stewards of shareholder capital might also have a record of selling non-core businesses at good to fair prices. Have investments and acquisitions been moat-widening? In other words, have returns on invested capital or profit margins improved as a result of management’s decisions? A strong sign of good stewardship is that management’s capital-allocation decisions improved the company’s competitive position and consequently increased shareholder value. Does the company have a record of taking large impairment charges? Poor stewards of shareholder capital frequently need to write down the value of previous acquisitions and probably need to improve their M&A decision-making processes. Exemplary stewards consistently pay good to fair prices for their acquisitions. Is management’s investment focus on building long-term shareholder value, or has it engaged in a growth-for-growth’s-sake strategy? Investment decisions that provide both short- and long-term benefits are ideal, but exemplary stewards of shareholder capital should be willing to sacrifice short-term results to create long-term shareholder value. Poor stewards, on the other hand, have a myopic focus on short-term results and have less concern for long-term consequences. Does the firm have a history of cost overruns or expensive operational missteps? Our methodology doesn’t punish companies for a string of bad luck. Instead, we’re more interested in how management’s actions and decision-making process may have played a role in value-destructive events. Poor stewards of shareholder capital will have a habit of not correcting their mistakes, whereas exemplary stewards consistently avoid repetitive and costly mistakes and quickly fix those that they do make. Does the firm have the appropriate dividend and buyback policy? The common traits of a good dividend policy are consistency, affordability and transparency. All else equal, firms in cyclical and capital-intensive businesses and those with significant value-enhancing investment opportunities should pay out a smaller percentage of earnings compared with firms in defensive industries or those with fewer reinvestment opportunities. As any successful investor would do, exemplary stewards look to opportunistically repurchase shares when the stock is trading at a material discount to fair value. We don’t like to see executives using buybacks simply as a means of increasing earnings per share or offsetting dilution related to employee stock options with little regard for the price paid. Does the firm have an appropriate amount of debt given the cyclicality and capital intensity of its business? We look unfavourably on firms with leverage ratios that are inappropriate for their lines of business. Firms that operate in highly cyclical, capital-intensive industries shouldn’t carry a large debt load, as this will serve to exaggerate the inherent volatility in the business. Similarly, firms in mature industries that carry no debt and have few reinvestment needs may not be maximising shareholder value, as issuing debt could lower the firm’s cost of capital. Does the ownership structure serve as a benefit or detriment to minority shareholders? Dual voting structures with unequal voting rights, large family or insider ownership, and large government ownership positions can have a meaningful impact on executive capital-allocation decisions. The big question to ask is, "Are the major shareholders’ interests aligned with those of minority shareholders?" and if they are not, "Has the arrangement led to value-destructive decisions?" Has the board of directors established an appropriate incentive structure that rewards value creation? Exemplary stewards will establish annual and long-term bonus metrics that align management’s financial interests with those of long-term shareholders and are appropriate for the line of business. Poor stewards, on the other hand, may not disclose metrics for evaluating performance, have "moving goalposts" when rewarding management, or base incentives on metrics that reward growth without regard to value creation. Do you think management is forthcoming about strategic missteps and challenges? Exemplary stewards will be communicative with shareholders in both good and bad periods, while poor stewards will look to sweep bad news under the rug or make it more difficult for shareholders to evaluate capital-allocation decisions by rearranging reporting segments or adjusting accounting assumptions. - See more at: http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/12362...h.HaRa4CYo.dpuf |
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May 4 2014, 10:31 PM
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Junior Member
359 posts Joined: Mar 2014
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Information overload~ Hav 2 study it slowly... |
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May 6 2014, 03:20 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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KMLOONG Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/06/km...sis-6-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5-Y DCF – 3.38 – 3.78 (MOS: 15% – 24%) – EY% – Buy below 2.70, sell above 3.62 – In my opinion, KMLOONG is just slightly above undervalued level. - The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. In a worst case scenario, KMLOONG, a net cash company with a low cost of production and an experienced management team would be able to withstand the turbulence and even take up expansion opportunities. Even in the ugly scenario, it still worth 2.69. - Going forward, I expect KMLOONG to perform better in FY15 as it plans to improve production, while benefiting from favourable palm oil prices. - Recently, I have purchased KMLOONG at 2.8, and then 2.74. Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (27 Mar 2013) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1577605 At the time of writing, I owned shares of KMLOONG. |
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May 6 2014, 09:32 PM
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Junior Member
129 posts Joined: Sep 2008
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chong, do you still cover ccmdbio? any update for this stock?
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May 6 2014, 11:50 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DELEUM Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/06/de...sis-6-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair value – 5Y DCF: 5.71 – 6.50 (MOS: -3% – 9%) – Absolute EY% – Buy under 2.62, sell above 5.43 – DELEUM is now fully valued. This is mainly due to the recent bonus issue. - The long term outlook looks bright for Deleum, with a RM3.5bn orderbook lasting up to 7 years and 2 major contracts commencing in FY14. - I will wait for bigger correction. Let see how it goes. Latest Financial – Annual Report 2014 (5 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1613393 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DELEUM. |
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May 6 2014, 11:51 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(Darrenhans @ May 6 2014, 09:32 PM) chong, do you still cover ccmdbio? any update for this stock? No longer cover this counter. |
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May 7 2014, 05:53 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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AXIATA Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/07/ax...sis-7-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: - Absolute EY%: Buy below 6.67, sell above 8.17 (MOS: 17.60%) - I am looking for 23% MOS though. - AXIATA is currently undervalued at 6.73 (6 May 2014) - I expect Celcom’s earnings to remain stable going forward amid rational competition. XL meanwhile will have to absorb Axis’ losses in the initial years post-merger. The potentially value-accretive tower spin-off exercise is not close to being completed. Besides, AXIATA is still highly leveraged. CROIC and ROIC are just stable, but not improving significantly. - New acquisition activities are expected, such as Viom Networks Ltd in India. Thus, more funding and gearing will be needed. - As of now, I do not see new growth catalysts for Axiata in the near term. I won’t accumulate AXIATA in the near term. Latest Financial – Annual Report 2013 (6 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1614929 At the time of writing, I owned shares of AXIATA. |
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May 7 2014, 09:47 PM
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Senior Member
2,714 posts Joined: May 2008
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ May 7 2014, 05:53 PM) AXIATA Analysis:- http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/07/ax...sis-7-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: - Absolute EY%: Buy below 6.67, sell above 8.17 (MOS: 17.60%) - I am looking for 23% MOS though. - AXIATA is currently undervalued at 6.73 (6 May 2014) - I expect Celcom’s earnings to remain stable going forward amid rational competition. XL meanwhile will have to absorb Axis’ losses in the initial years post-merger. The potentially value-accretive tower spin-off exercise is not close to being completed. Besides, AXIATA is still highly leveraged. CROIC and ROIC are just stable, but not improving significantly. - New acquisition activities are expected, such as Viom Networks Ltd in India. Thus, more funding and gearing will be needed. - As of now, I do not see new growth catalysts for Axiata in the near term. I won’t accumulate AXIATA in the near term. Latest Financial – Annual Report 2013 (6 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1614929 At the time of writing, I owned shares of AXIATA. Axiata under value due to growth being stagnant? |
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May 7 2014, 10:29 PM
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Senior Member
984 posts Joined: Nov 2008
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QUOTE(cdspins @ May 7 2014, 09:47 PM) Axiata under value due to growth being stagnant? |
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May 7 2014, 11:02 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(Oracles99 @ May 7 2014, 10:29 PM) lcchong said it all; "XL meanwhile will have to absorb Axis’ losses in the initial years post-merger". Its overseas subsidiary's profit came mainly from XL in Indonesia. Even in Indonesia, the market is fast maturing which means little growth. Besides taking over a loss making company means that the profit made in Indonesia would be offset by losses from the newly acquired company. You are right! |
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May 7 2014, 11:02 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PETGAS Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/07/pe...sis-7-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair value – Absolute EY%: 17.13 – 20.16 (MOS: -15.86%) - PETGAS is current fully valued. MOS for PETGAS should be 17%. - I do not expect the stock to move up further from the current levels due to a lack of fresh catalysts (the Pengerang regasification terminal will only come onstream at the end of the decade). Valuations are not compelling, but the stock still appeals to funds seeking earnings stability. - I will continue to hold PETGAS. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (6 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1615589 At the time of writing, I owned shares of PETGAS. |
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May 7 2014, 11:08 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(Oracles99 @ May 7 2014, 10:29 PM) lcchong said it all; "XL meanwhile will have to absorb Axis’ losses in the initial years post-merger". Its overseas subsidiary's profit came mainly from XL in Indonesia. Even in Indonesia, the market is fast maturing which means little growth. Besides taking over a loss making company means that the profit made in Indonesia would be offset by losses from the newly acquired company. This is typical problem of keep acquiring other companies. |
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May 7 2014, 11:20 PM
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Junior Member
13 posts Joined: Sep 2010
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agree... telco if doing good then is cash cow.. if not then the capex is very high..
not sure if axiata can do as good as digi in other countries~ |
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May 8 2014, 02:33 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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This is Preliminary Analysis.
HSPLANT Analysis:- http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/08/hs...sis-8-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – Absolute EY% – Buy below 1.67, sell above 2.58 – HSPLANT is currently fully valued. Besides, its EY% is only 4.3%. - Over the years, HSP’s upside growth potential has been limited due to the lack of land expansion, which could be exemplified by a mere 1,769 Ha increment in its total planted area, from 33,782 Ha in FY 2008 to 35,551 Ha in FY2013. In contrast, its peer, IJMP’s total planted area has doubled over the same period, from 25,293 Ha to 52,863 Ha. To further enhance HSP’s future earnings in the longer-term, it is essential for HSP to grow its FFB production which has been relatively stable. Perhaps HSP needs to get out of its comfort zone and start to be more aggressive in expanding its landbank. And given the fact that HSP is a productive planter with FFB yield and OER outperforming the industry average, coupled with a high average EBIT/Ha of RM7,136.54, these imply that it has the capability to achieve better results. - The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. HSPLANT earnings is expected to improve in coming years. - I think HSPLANT valuation is not attractive at this moment. I will consider to enter if there is any buy signal in technical. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (26 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1549885 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of HSPLANT. |
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May 8 2014, 09:09 PM
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Senior Member
1,404 posts Joined: Jun 2005
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lcchong76, can you cover WTK please ? tq
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May 9 2014, 03:56 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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This study is created specifically for educational purposes only where I will use it for a special occasion later. I may not update analysis of this stock in the future.
IJMPLNT Analysis:- http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/09/ij...sis-9-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: - Absolute EY% – Buy below 2.80, sell above 3.79 - IJMPLNT is currently fully valued. Besides, its EY% is only 2.03%. - IJMP’s future earnings will be driven by its Indonesian operations, and thus making its Indonesian business profitable is essential. Its Malaysian business has been growing steadily, except in FY2013, and the profit before tax (PBT) has never turned negative since it was listed. Nevertheless, the group’s profitability has been dragged down by its Indonesian operation. Many expenses related to planting activities will have to be expensed once the oil palms become matured in about 3 years’ time. - At the group level, IJMP will allocate RM20-30 mln and RM200-250 mln for Sabah’s replanting and upgrading cost, as well as Indonesia’s final phase of planting (approximately 2,500 Ha land area) and infrastructure cost (including the construction of the second mill to be commenced in 2015) in FY2014, respectively. In the following 2 years, the group expects a lower capital expenditure at RM150-200 mln per annum. All these expenditures and higher cost of production require IJMP to have strong financial fundamentals. - The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. IJMPLNT earnings is expected to improve in coming years. - I think IJMPLNT valuation is not attractive at this moment. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (27 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1551241 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of IJMPLNT. |
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May 10 2014, 03:07 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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UTDPLT Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/10/ut...is-10-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: - Absolute EY% - Buy below 16.95, sell above 22.09 - UTDPLT is currently fully valued. - The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. I expect earnings of UTDPLT will improve in the coming years. - So far, among the plantation counters, UTDPLT is probably one of the outstanding companies in terms of crop production and business performance. - I think UTDPLT valuation is not attractive at this moment. I will keep this stock in my Watch List. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (28 Apr 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1606629 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of UTDPLT. |
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May 11 2014, 02:45 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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GAB Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/11/ga...is-11-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair values/Market Timing: – 10-Y DCF: 11.47 – 14.09 (MOS: -25% -> -1%) – Absolute EY%: Buy below 10.48, sell above 13.20 (MOS: -8.31%) - At the current price (14.30 as of 11 May 2014), GAB is already fully valued or over valued. Besides, MOS derived from all models are not up to my benchmark (24.71%). - The dividend return spread between GAB and CARLSBG vs the 10-year MGS yield has narrowed to only 30-40bpts vs the historical 10-year average of 280-290bpts. (Source: RHB) - Going forward, I remain conservative and skeptical above volume growth in the brewery sector as some reports show that the industry is saturated, coupled with several other external factors such as rising fuel costs, inflation as well as potential exposure to excise duty hike in the near future. However, earnings should be sustainable at current levels. – Based on my growth analysis, as of FY14Q3, GAB only achieved 71.4% (1,197,717) of FY13 revenue (1,676,348), and 69.5% (151,270) of FY13 net profit (217,604). Therefore, most likely, I estimate GAB’s FY14 result will be flat or slightly lower if compare to FY13. - 2014 will be a challenging year for brewers due to competition from contrabrand beers and as consumer spending dwindles. Fortunately, this will be partially alleviated by the Visit Malaysia Year 2014 event. - In my opinion, there is still some downside risk even though the share prices of both stocks have fallen sharply from last year’s peaks (down 30-45%). 11.60 – 13.00 is a good support zone, from fundamental and technical aspect. Chances of GAB dropping below this zone is low. - I may accumulate GAB if its price got big discount, such as below 11.00. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (9 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1618941 At the time of writing, I owned shares of GAB. |
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May 12 2014, 04:43 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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This study is created specifically for educational purposes only where I will use it on a special occasion later. I may not update analysis of this stock in the future.
TSH Analysis:- http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/12/ts...is-12-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: - EY% - Buy below 2.19, sell above 3.75 (MOS: 11.97%) - In my opinion, TSH still got a little bit of upside. - The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. - Analysts posted positive outlook on TSH because a) strong FFB production growth of 13%-15% b) young age profile of 6-7 years old for the majority of its planted area - However, due to increasingly impairment costs, I am not sure efficiency of TSH management and operations. Unlike its peers, TSH leverage level is also higher. - This stock doesn't fit my taste. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (25 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1547169 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of TSH. |
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May 14 2014, 11:20 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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This study is created specifically for educational purposes only where I will use it on a special occasion later. I may not update analysis of this stock in the future.
KLK Analysis:- http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/14/kl...is-14-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – EY% – Buy below 16.01, sell above 24.68 – In my opinion, KLK is fully valued. - The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. KLK earnings will improve in the next few years. - KLK’s current price is at a premium due to the young age of the group’s oil palm trees. Average age of KLK’s oil palm trees is 11 years old as young trees in Indonesia compensate for the older trees in Sabah. - In longer term, KLK’s outlook is positive as earnings impact will likely be from FY18 onwards. Note that oil palm trees usually start bearing fruits from the 3rd year onwards and the field preparation work may take up to one year. - Based on Q1 2014 performance, revenue, net profit and FCF increased 7.5%, 12.2%, and 97% respectively by comparing to Q1 2013 results. - I believe that KLK is in good position to achieve better result in FY14. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (19 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1542173 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of KLK. |
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May 15 2014, 01:53 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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JTIASA Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/15/jt...is-15-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair value – EY%: 3.31 – 5.71 – Analysts’ forecast JTIASA may be able to achieve 0.12 and 0.22 EPS for FY14 and FY15. However, based on performance of 2 quarters of FY14, the cumulative EPS is 0.04. I am not sure JTIASA can even achieve 0.10 EPS by the end of FY14. So, for absolute EY%, I discounted the analysts’ forecast to 0.10 (FY16) and 0.15 (FY15). - The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. JTIASA earnings will improve in the next few years. - In terms of productivity, costs, efficiency and financial health, KMLOONG outplayed JTIASA. JTIASA may have greater potential but KMLOONG’s future prospect is not bad. – Being a leader of the timber and plywood industry, it has not been showing much profit because they have used the cash from the timber business to plant oil palms. It started planting oil palms in 2002 aggressively and the following tables show the planted area and it’s FFB production. – The total planted area and the FFB production have been increasing rapidly since 2005. The palms are physically growing and producing more and more fruits every year. – Their current FFB yield is not optimum because most of the palms are young. Their FFB yield will improve when their immature trees become mature. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (25 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1547381 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of JTIASA. |
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May 15 2014, 10:36 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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GKENT Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/15/gk...is-15-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – 5Y DCF: 2.91 – 3.26 (MOS: 38% – 45%) – Absolute EY%: 1.54 – 2.56 (MOS: 30%) - GKENT has very strong competitive advantages where it is in a very good position in building wide economic moats. - GKENT has been moving in the range from 0.4 to 1.7 since 2004. It couldn’t break 1.7 twice (2004 and 2010). However, since 28 Mar 2014, GKENT has been so bullish (without obvious correction) and closed at 1.7 on 11 Apr 2014. For those investors who spotted and invested GKENT at lower price, thumb up to them. - GKENT formed a support at 1.7. I have bought GKENT at the support level with assumption where GKENT will continue its trend. Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (27 Mar 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1577701 At the time of writing, I owned shares of GKENT. |
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May 15 2014, 10:52 PM
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ May 14 2014, 11:20 PM) This study is created specifically for educational purposes only where I will use it on a special occasion later. I may not update analysis of this stock in the future. Compare to UTDPLT, which stock you will choose? which UTDPLT Q1 revenue increase 21% and profit increase 35%. And this few days, the price fly more than 5%.KLK Analysis:- http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/14/kl...is-14-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – EY% – Buy below 16.01, sell above 24.68 – In my opinion, KLK is fully valued. - The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. KLK earnings will improve in the next few years. - KLK’s current price is at a premium due to the young age of the group’s oil palm trees. Average age of KLK’s oil palm trees is 11 years old as young trees in Indonesia compensate for the older trees in Sabah. - In longer term, KLK’s outlook is positive as earnings impact will likely be from FY18 onwards. Note that oil palm trees usually start bearing fruits from the 3rd year onwards and the field preparation work may take up to one year. - Based on Q1 2014 performance, revenue, net profit and FCF increased 7.5%, 12.2%, and 97% respectively by comparing to Q1 2013 results. - I believe that KLK is in good position to achieve better result in FY14. Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (19 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1542173 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of KLK. |
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May 16 2014, 06:57 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(500Kmission @ May 15 2014, 10:52 PM) Compare to UTDPLT, which stock you will choose? which UTDPLT Q1 revenue increase 21% and profit increase 35%. And this few days, the price fly more than 5%. I think UTDPLT is at better position. |
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May 16 2014, 02:28 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DIALOG Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/16/di...is-16-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – Absolute EY%: 2.41 – 4.66 (MOS: 20%) - Based on the current price (3.70 as of 16 May 2014), DIALOG is slightly undervalued. At this price, I have 20% MOS. - I am considering to accumulate DIALOG. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (15 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1623213 At the time of writing, I owned shares of DIALOG. |
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May 16 2014, 03:03 PM
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Junior Member
254 posts Joined: May 2014
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ May 16 2014, 02:28 PM) DIALOG Analysis:- dialog in pengerang look bighttp://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/16/di...is-16-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – Absolute EY%: 2.41 – 4.66 (MOS: 20%) - Based on the current price (3.70 as of 16 May 2014), DIALOG is slightly undervalued. At this price, I have 20% MOS. - I am considering to accumulate DIALOG. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (15 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1623213 At the time of writing, I owned shares of DIALOG. |
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May 16 2014, 03:03 PM
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Junior Member
254 posts Joined: May 2014
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ May 16 2014, 02:28 PM) DIALOG Analysis:- dialog in pengerang look bighttp://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/16/di...is-16-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – Absolute EY%: 2.41 – 4.66 (MOS: 20%) - Based on the current price (3.70 as of 16 May 2014), DIALOG is slightly undervalued. At this price, I have 20% MOS. - I am considering to accumulate DIALOG. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (15 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1623213 At the time of writing, I owned shares of DIALOG. This post has been edited by kimboon: May 16 2014, 03:03 PM |
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May 16 2014, 11:14 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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WELLCAL Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/16/we...is-16-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair value – 5Y DCF: 1.64 – 1.87 (MOS: 11% – 22%) – Absolute EY%: 0.85 – 1.52 (MOS: 4.01%) – WELLCAL is nearly valued, and I think it current price level already factored in its growth drivers. - WELLCAL has appreciated 60% (during this time, the KLCI was only up 3% while the FBM Small Cap Index rose 19%) and dividend yield has declined to the 5% levels. - Demand for industrial rubber hoses will continue to see gradual recovery from both the emerging and developed economies, with higher growth rates projected from the emerging markets. In the near term, WELLCAL expects the raw material prices to trend at current levels with possibly further downward inclination. The recent easing of these raw material prices has enabled a more favourable operating environment for sustainable growth in demand and earnings. - I will wait for correction, such as WELLCAL drops to 1.30.… Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (16 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1624541 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of WELLCAL. |
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May 17 2014, 11:06 PM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#346
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ May 16 2014, 06:57 AM) I think UTDPLT is at better position. The price further appreciate, i think i sell at RM30 which highest of 2013 was RM33 and buy back below RM27. |
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May 19 2014, 10:37 PM
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Senior Member
1,956 posts Joined: May 2010
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AZRB
MRCB SUPERMX |
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May 20 2014, 09:08 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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OSKPROP Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/20/os...is-20-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value – 5Y DCF: 3.31 – 3.79 (MOS: 44% – 51%) – Absolute EY%: Buy below 2.40, Sell above 4.34 – OSKPROP is currently undervalued. - Based on various published reports and BNM Mar 2014 report, BNM has very high tendency to increase OPR in short future. This will create adverse short-term impact to stock market, especially property sector. - Despite OSKPROP is undervalued now, I choose to stay out for the time being. I am willing to pay some premium, but I want to be sure about BNM’s future policy. Latest Financial – Annual Report 2013 (27 Mar 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1578245 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of OSKPROP. |
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May 21 2014, 01:19 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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AIRASIA Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/21/ai...is-21-may-2014/ My View:- - Market Timing – Absolute EY%: Buy below 3.47, sell above 4.18 (MOS: 44%) - I believe that FY2014 would be a better year as compared to 2013, with the expectation that yield would recover and its cost savings initiatives would boost earnings. - On the other hand, MAS and AIRASIA have guided that domestic and intra-ASEAN fares are unlikely to decline further from the already-low levels, but fares are unlikely to rise either, as capacity deployment over the next six months will be kept at present levels and there is no evidence of capacity rationalisation. As the weak 4Q13 fares carry over into 2014, some analysts expect MAA to experience an average 5% underlying yield compression in 2014, leading to a 26% core net profit decline. To make things worse, Thai AirAsia’s profit is likely to shrink and Indonesia AirAsia’s losses expand further this year. Thus, the analysts expect AirAsia’s group core net profit to fall a massive 43% yoy in 2014. The outlook may improve in 2015-16 as the losses are unsustainable for MAS and Malindo. I also conquer with their view. - Besides, further decline in pax yield and lower contributions from the overseas associates are expected for FY14 and FY15. - Based on Changes in Sub. S-hldr’s Int. (29B), since Jan 2014, EPF has been heavily buying AIRASIA, and Wellington also stopped net selling AIRASIA. Heavy buy by EPF doesn’t guarantee appreciation of AIRASIA’s stock price, but it provides a very strong support from 2.2 to 2.4. - AirAsia has told Bursa Malaysia that it is proposing to buy up to 10% of its issued and paid-up share capital at any point in time. The proposed share buyback, if implemented, will enable AirAsia and its subsidiaries to utilise any of its surplus financial resources, which are not immediately required for other uses, to purchase its own shares from the market, the company said. The proposed share buyback is expected to stabilise the price of AirAsia shares and to prevent against speculation of the shares, when undervalued, to enhance investors’ confidence. (27 Feb 2014) - I have accumulated AIRASIA 3 times in Dec 2013 and Jan 2014 in the range from 2.3 to 2.4, so I won’t accumulate AIRASIA in near term or until it formed a new higher support. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (20 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1627693 At the time of writing, I owned shares of AIRASIA. |
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May 21 2014, 10:14 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DELEUM Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/21/de...is-21-may-2014/ My View:- - Valuation – 5Y DCF: 7.37 – 8.38 (MOS: 13% – 24%) – I believe that future competition will be intense and cost of doing business will rise, in particular staff related cost and higher inflationary pressures. – I think DELEUM’s FCF growth will slow down. Thus, I will take 7.37 as the fair value. – Absolute EY% – Buy under 2.62, sell above 5.43 – Although this is slightly contradict with the outcome of DCF, it is actually logical. This is because DELEUM has been bullish since early of 2013. – I believe that the current price already factored in the growth drivers. – DELEUM is now nearly valued. - The long term outlook looks bright for Deleum, with a RM3.5bn orderbook lasting up to 7 years and 2 major contracts commencing in FY14. - I will wait for bigger correction. Let see how it goes. Latest Financial – Q 2014 Financial Report (21 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1628701 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DELEUM. |
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May 22 2014, 12:03 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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AHEALTH Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/22/ah...is-21-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value: – 5Y DCF: 5.74 – 6.54 (MOS: 16% – 27%) – Absolute EY%: 3.38 – 4.27 (MOS: -12%) - In 2013, RM 30 million was spent to acquire and retrofit a 50,000 square feet industrial building to support growing business volumes at Apex Pharma Marketing Pte Ltd in Singapore. – Thus, FY13 FCF is lower if compare to previous years. - As a pharmaceutical company, AHEALTH is a defensive company. However, what I dislike is balance float of shares in market is around 15% only. Liquidity of this stock is low. - I may buy some shares of AHEALTH in the future. I will continue to monitor it. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (21 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1628645 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of AHEALTH. |
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May 22 2014, 09:12 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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JTIASA Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/22/jt...is-22-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair value – Absolute EY%: Buy below 3.35, sell above 6.18 (MOS: 56%) – Analysts’ forecast JTIASA may be able to achieve 0.12 and 0.22 EPS for FY14 and FY15. However, based on performance of 2 quarters of FY14, the cumulative EPS is 0.04. I am not sure JTIASA can even achieve 0.10 EPS by the end of FY14. So, for absolute EY%, I discounted the analysts’ forecast to 0.10 (FY16) and 0.15 (FY15). - The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. JTIASA earnings will improve in the next few years. - In terms of productivity, costs, efficiency and financial health, KMLOONG outplayed JTIASA. JTIASA may have greater potential but KMLOONG’s future prospect is not bad. – Being a leader of the timber and plywood industry, it has not been showing much profit because they have used the cash from the timber business to plant oil palms. It started planting oil palms in 2002 aggressively and the following tables show the planted area and it’s FFB production. – The total planted area and the FFB production have been increasing rapidly since 2005. The palms are physically growing and producing more and more fruits every year. – Their current FFB yield is not optimum because most of the palms are young. Their FFB yield will improve when their immature trees become mature. - After three quarters in FY14, if compare to last FY results, JTIASA still has 27.6% to catch up. I am not sure whether JTIASA can catch up more than 27% in the last quarter. Chances are slim. On the other hand, JTIASA’s net profit already exceed last year’s net profit. - I believe JTIASA will continue to bullish. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (21 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1628169 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of JTIASA. |
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May 22 2014, 09:13 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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This study is created specifically for educational purposes only where I will use it on a special occasion later. I may not update analysis of this stock in the future.
KLK Analysis:- http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/22/kl...is-22-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – EY% – Buy below 15.87, sell above 24.46 – In my opinion, KLK is fully valued. - The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. KLK earnings will improve in the next few years. - KLK’s current price is at a premium due to the young age of the group’s oil palm trees. Average age of KLK’s oil palm trees is 11 years old as young trees in Indonesia compensate for the older trees in Sabah. - In longer term, KLK’s outlook is positive as earnings impact will likely be from FY18 onwards. Note that oil palm trees usually start bearing fruits from the 3rd year onwards and the field preparation work may take up to one year. - Based on Q2 2014 cumulative results, revenue, net profit and FCF increased 19%, 29%, and 549% respectively by comparing to Q2 2013 cumulative results. - I believe that KLK is in good position to achieve better result in FY14. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (21 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1628097 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of KLK. |
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May 23 2014, 09:21 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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VITROX Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/23/vi...is-23-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – 5Y DCF: 1.59 – 1.80 (MOS: -25% -> -10%) – Absolute EY%: Buy below 1.18, sell above 2.24 – VITROX is nearly or fully valued, and its MOS is lower than my MOS (19%) - I believe that FY14 will be a growth year for VITROX because of the recovery of global semiconductor industry and improving US, Japan and European markets. - I still sees a lot of growth in Vitrox – the catalysts from Agilent’s exit in 2016 and competitive products should help it compete to get individual orders. But with the trend moving towards a single supplier, which provides the entire array of testing equipment that seamlessly talk to each other, Vitrox is currently being left behind. A substantial change in its internal R&D activity to innovate or potential acquisitions with talents or acquisitions with new product offerings to complement its existing portfolio, are the only ways for Vitrox to grow in the longer term. - I will hold VITROX. I may sell it if it shows bearish reversal signal. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (22 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1630053 At the time of writing, I owned shares of VITROX. |
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May 23 2014, 09:21 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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This study is created specifically for educational purposes only where I will use it on a special occasion later. I may not update analysis of this stock in the future.
TSH Analysis:- http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/23/ts...is-23-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – EY% – Buy below 2.19, sell above 3.75 (MOS: 11.97%) – In my opinion, TSH still got a little bit of upside. - The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. - Analysts posted positive outlook on TSH because a) strong FFB production growth of 13%-15% b) young age profile of 6-7 years old for the majority of its planted area - However, due to increasingly impairment costs, I am not sure efficiency of TSH management and operations. Unlike its peers, TSH leverage level is also higher. - FY14Q1 earnings surged > 100% yoy was attributable to i. higher crop production ii. better CPO price iii. unrealized FX gain of RM16.7m arising from the strengthening of Ringgit and Rupiah against the US Dollar Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (22 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1629497 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of TSH. |
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May 24 2014, 10:33 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DAYANG Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/24/da...is-24-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – Absolute EY%: Buy bellow 3.04, sell above 4.80 (MOS: 25%) - DAYANG’S longer-term prospects are strong given that c.77% of its RM4b orderbook extends until 2018. It is also a beneficiary of any improvements in associate PERDANA earnings. - I will consider to buy DAYANG if – it dropped below 3.3; or – it formed a strong support. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (23 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1631313 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DAYANG. |
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May 28 2014, 08:53 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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AXIATA Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/28/ax...is-28-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – Absolute EY%: – Fair value: 7.55 – Buy under 5.64 – I am looking for 23% MOS though. - AXIATA is currently undervalued at 6.89 (28 May 2014), but the actual MOS is 8.7% - I expect Celcom’s earnings to remain stable going forward amid rational competition. XL meanwhile will have to absorb Axis’ losses in the initial years post-merger. The potentially value-accretive tower spin-off exercise is not close to being completed. Besides, AXIATA is still highly leveraged. CROIC and ROIC are just stable, but not improving significantly. - New acquisition activities are expected, such as Viom Networks Ltd in India. Thus, more funding and gearing will be needed. - As of now, I do not see new growth catalysts for Axiata in the near term. Earnings growth form the group’s smaller segmenst is expected to compensate for the earnings pressure from its two main segments i.e. Celcom and XL. In addition, sizeable exposure to forex also impacted the group’s bottomline. - I won’t accumulate AXIATA in the near term. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (27 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1636321 At the time of writing, I owned shares of AXIATA. |
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May 28 2014, 08:54 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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CARLSBG Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/28/ca...is-28-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair values/Market Timing: – 10-Y DCF: 12.56 – 15.42 (MOS:4% – 22%) – Absolute EY%: Buy below 9.99, sell above 12.09 (MOS: -0.09%) - At the current price (12.1 as of 27 May 2014), CARLSBG is already fully valued or over valued. Besides, MOS derived from all models are not up to my benchmark. - The dividend return spread between GAB and CARLSBG vs the 10-year MGS yield has narrowed to only 30-40bpts vs the ?historical ?10-year average of 280-290bpts. (Source: RHB) - Going forward, I remain conservative and skeptical above volume growth in the brewery sector as some reports show that the industry is saturated, coupled with several other external factors such as rising fuel costs, inflation as well as potential exposure to excise duty hike in the near future. However, earnings should be sustainable at current levels. - 2014 will be a challenging year for brewers due to competition from contrabrand beers and as consumer spending dwindles. Fortunately, this will be partially alleviated by the Visit Malaysia Year 2014 event. - In my opinion, there is still some downside risk even though the share prices of both stocks have fallen sharply from last year’s peaks (down 30-45%). 10.24 – 11.50 is a good support zone, from technical aspect. Chances of CARLSBG dropping below this zone is low. - CARLSBG is determined to move away from a single star beer product company to become a star beer portfolio company. Over the past 10 years, CARLSBG has been trying to launch a couple of new products into the market. To date, however, its Carlsberg Green Label is still viewed as the group’s only crown jewel. As such, a reshuffle has been undertaken in its top management team over the last 2 to 3 years with the aim of bringing good changes to the group. Besides, it has also appointed a few brand managers to oversee the brand building efforts across a few main products, whereby premium brands are expected to form a larger proportion of its new product portfolio. While efforts are being made to build market share for its premium products, the Carlsberg Green Label will remain as the bread and butter of the group. Whether or not CARLSBG will be able to return to its former glory, it is still too early to tell, but the good efforts warrant CARLSBG a buy/hold call for the long term. There are downside risks if things do not turn out as expected. - I may accumulate CARLSBG if it dropped below 11.00. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (27 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1635465 At the time of writing, I owned shares of CARLSBG. |
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May 28 2014, 10:39 PM
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Senior Member
984 posts Joined: Nov 2008
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Axiata's quarterly result shows gains mainly from exchange rate translation. Celcom experienced a drop in revenue greater than Digi & Maxis in line with the mature local market.
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May 29 2014, 08:39 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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VITROX Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/29/vi...is-29-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – 5Y DCF: 1.75 – 1.98 (MOS: -16% -> -2%) – As of now, I will not use DCF because VITROX’s capex was rather high due to R&D – Absolute EY%: Buy below 2.54, sell above 3.03 – VITROX is under valued - I believe that FY14 will be a growth year for VITROX because of the recovery of global semiconductor industry and improving US, Japan and European markets. - I still sees a lot of growth in Vitrox – the catalysts from Agilent’s exit in 2016 and competitive products should help it compete to get individual orders. But with the trend moving towards a single supplier, which provides the entire array of testing equipment that seamlessly talk to each other, Vitrox is currently being left behind. A substantial change in its internal R&D activity to innovate or potential acquisitions with talents or acquisitions with new product offerings to complement its existing portfolio, are the only ways for Vitrox to grow in the longer term. - I will hold VITROX. I may sell it if it shows bearish reversal signal, or may accumulate it if its uptrend continues. Latest Financial – Annual Report 2014 (28 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1636725 At the time of writing, I owned shares of VITROX. |
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May 29 2014, 08:47 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PADINI Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/29/pa...is-29-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair value/Marketing Timing – 5Y DCF: 2.45 – 2.77 – Buy under: 2.03 – 2.29 (MOS: 17% – 27%) – EY%: Buy under 1.86, sell above 2.18 - Looks like PADINI is currently undervalued and quite attractive. - New 3 Brands Outlet stores and a Padini Concept store were opened in the current financial year. In the coming months, there are plans to add another 3 Brands Outlet stores and another 2 Padini Concept stores which would add upwards of 90k sq ft of retail floor space to >800k sq ft. In addition to the new store openings, we are positive on the changes made to merchandise development and pricing strategies, which would allow PADINI to capitalise on the Visit Malaysia Year 2014. – Five out of the nine new stores in FY14 are located in Miri, Seremban and Langkawi. They will provide the group with new revenue stream from the less competitive markets in the second tier cities. - Based on the growth analysis, PADINI has great potential to have higher net profit and owner earnings in FY14. - For recent sector analysis, please read http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2014/03...ly-15032014.pdf - My wife bought PADINI 2 weeks ago. PADINI will remain in my watch list because it is not part of my personal portfolio. I will help her to monitor PADINI. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (28 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1638113 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of PADINI. |
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May 29 2014, 09:20 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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ALLIANZ Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/29/al...is-29-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value/Market Timing – 5Y DCF: 25.85 – 29.53 (MOS: 60% – 65%) – Absolute EY%: Buy under 9.12, sell above 11.10 (MOS: 6.32%) – ALLIANZ is undervalued in long term. - I think MH370 incident will only give negative impact to ALLIANZ in short term. So far, ALLIANZ only identified 5 of the passengers are their client. – For some people, this is a risk, but I view this as an good opportunity. - ALLIANZ’s dividend payout is extremely low, so never expect good dividend from them. Reasons: – High capital or surplus retained due to nature of industry – Stringent regulatory requirement to protect policyholders’ interest – Managing stringent capital buffer to withstand adverse or unfavorable experience - Unlike LPI (general insurance and financing on leases), ALLIANZ is heavily dependence on single segment: motor insurance; and also dependence on agent for life insurance. ALLIANZ requires high capital to grow distribution capabilities, and fund new business growth. - Balance float of outstanding shares is very low: 4.20%. - My wife and I are considering to buy ALLIANZ with our joint account, while my wife already owned shares of LPI. - References: – https://www.allianz.com.my/web/lna/10074/10064/2014# – http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/rhb/47700.jsp - I will continue accumulate ALLIANZ along the way. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (28 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1637065 At the time of writing, I owned shares of ALLIANZ. |
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May 30 2014, 08:30 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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GENTING Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/30/ge...is-30-may-2014/ My View:- - Market Timing: – EY%: Buy below 9.22, sell above 11.81 - GENTING, as a holding company, should have no problems financing its power division’s capex commitments of US$1bn. The annual cashflow of over RM530m from GENM’s management fees should be sufficient to meet the equity portion of the US$360m, spread over three years. However, if we consider the US$4bn capex for Resorts World Las Vegas (RWLV), the timing of the cashflow could be an issue as the RM7bn cash from the conversion of warrants will be spread out over the next five years. Apparently, work on RWLV will not start until it secures the necessary gaming licence. Analysts expect the licence to be obtained in the next 12-18 months. However, based on the building applications submitted by RWLV on 4 Dec 2013 as found on http://www.clackcountynv.gov, there appears to have been progress. This means construction could start as early as 3Q14. - GENTING has many new projects on hand, but most of the projects are under development. Besides, it takes long time for GENTING to obtain casino license. And the risk is GENTING may not able to obtain license. - As of now, I won’t add position to GENTING because there are many uncertainties at this moment. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (29 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1640577 At the time of writing, I owned shares of GENTING. |
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May 30 2014, 08:42 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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MAYBANK Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/30/ma...is-30-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5Y DCF: 10.08 – 11.74 (MOS: 1% – 15%) – EY%: buy below 13.77, sell above 16.75 (MOS: 40.43%) – EY% valuation may be too optimistic, but MAYBANK is undervalued if based on DCF valuation. - MAYBANK seems to be fairly optimistic over FY14 outlook with tall targets of 13% growth in both loans and deposits. Besides, they also maintain its ROE target at 15%. In my opinion, after studied the risks and growth drivers, this is a realistic target. - I will accumulate MAYBANK a bit without increasing my average price too much. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (29 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1638761 At the time of writing, I owned shares of MAYBANK. |
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May 30 2014, 11:07 PM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#365
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Senior Member
789 posts Joined: Feb 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ May 29 2014, 09:20 PM) ALLIANZ Analysis:- I think you need to update the bold information. LPI has changed the revenue cover from Fire, Auto and General to Fire, Auto and Marine in FY12.http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/29/al...is-29-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value/Market Timing – 5Y DCF: 25.85 – 29.53 (MOS: 60% – 65%) – Absolute EY%: Buy under 9.12, sell above 11.10 (MOS: 6.32%) – ALLIANZ is undervalued in long term. - I think MH370 incident will only give negative impact to ALLIANZ in short term. So far, ALLIANZ only identified 5 of the passengers are their client. – For some people, this is a risk, but I view this as an good opportunity. - ALLIANZ’s dividend payout is extremely low, so never expect good dividend from them. Reasons: – High capital or surplus retained due to nature of industry – Stringent regulatory requirement to protect policyholders’ interest – Managing stringent capital buffer to withstand adverse or unfavorable experience - Unlike LPI (general insurance and financing on leases), ALLIANZ is heavily dependence on single segment: motor insurance; and also dependence on agent for life insurance. ALLIANZ requires high capital to grow distribution capabilities, and fund new business growth. - Balance float of outstanding shares is very low: 4.20%. - My wife and I are considering to buy ALLIANZ with our joint account, while my wife already owned shares of LPI. - References: – https://www.allianz.com.my/web/lna/10074/10064/2014# – http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/rhb/47700.jsp - I will continue accumulate ALLIANZ along the way. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (28 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1637065 At the time of writing, I owned shares of ALLIANZ. |
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May 31 2014, 12:18 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(500Kmission @ May 30 2014, 11:07 PM) I think you need to update the bold information. LPI has changed the revenue cover from Fire, Auto and General to Fire, Auto and Marine in FY12. Thanks. I will check it out |
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Jun 1 2014, 12:05 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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SIME Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/06/01/si...sis-1-jun-2014/ My View:- - Fair values/Market Timing: – 5Y DCF: 8.33 – 9.65 (MOS: -15% – 1%) – EY%: Buy below 8.50, sell above 10.40 (8.18%) – All models indicate that SIME is near-fully valued. - In the near-term, I expect Sime’s earnings growth to continue to be moderate. Historically, Plantation division contributes circa 50-60% to the Group’s profit. Going forward, I do not foresee a significant PBT growth from Plantation division in the next 6-12 months as i. CPO prices are expected to average at around RM2700pmt (price impact from the anticipated El-Nino occurrence would only be seen in 2H15), ii. FFB output growth is projected to be flattish at best. Furthermore, I also expect profit from Industrial division to remain flat in view of the expected slowdown in Australian mining sector. - For the time being, I won’t add position, but of course, I will continue to hold SIME (hopefully it will ride up..….) Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (29 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1638889 At the time of writing, I owned shares of SIME. |
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Jun 1 2014, 03:44 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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SUNWAY Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/06/01/su...sis-1-jun-2014/ My View:- - Market Timing/Fair value: – I am not confident of reasonable fair value for SUNWAY – So far, I use technical analysis to trade SUNWAY, thus fair value may not important. - I remain cautious on the increasingly crowded Iskandar Malaysia development and luxury property market which would be hit by the new property cooling measures amid stricter lending rules. However, earnings are well-supported by its MYR2.4bn unbilled sales (MYR2.2bn in 3Q13) and MYR3.9bn construction orderbook. - Moving forward, I still think that management’s sales target of RM1.8b on the back RM2.3b targeted launches is still highly realistic. Reason being that 82% of its upcoming launches are being priced below RM1.0m/unit which is more palatable for the market’s demand for ‘affordability’. If its upcoming Sunway Iskandar secures strong take-ups, I think stock price will have larger upside. Property unbilled sales of RM2.4b and remaining external orderbook of RM2.9b provides 1-1.5 years visibility. - Based on technical analysis, SUNWAY is still in down trend. - My current average price is 2.22. I have sold half of my positions at 3.18. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (29 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1639485 At the time of writing, I owned shares of SUNWAY. |
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Jun 2 2014, 09:26 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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GASMSIA Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/06/02/ga...sis-2-jun-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value: – Absolute EY%: – R4Q: 2.72 – 3.4 (MOS: -6%) – FY15: 2.32 – 4.25 (MOS: 13%) – GASMSIA is currently fully valued. - With barely any change in its profit margin spread under the new tariff, FY14 is expected to be another strong year with full-year earnings impact from the 40MMScfd gas supply which started from July 2013 and another new additional 30MMScfd commencing Jan 2014 from the Melaka RGT. - However, it may not be easy for GASMSIA to sustain profit margin spread going forward given the dynamic of LNG prices. Nonetheless, forward business volume will be supported by the last portion of the 40MMScfd additional gas supply from the Melaka RGT which will be coming on-stream in Jan 2015. - Volume growth in 2015 requires further 1) price hikes or 2) deferment of the reduction in regulated gas quota (from 382 to 300mmscfd) for GMB to preserve spreads. These events require approval from the Energy Commission and/or PETRONAS. There are substantial regulatory risks involved. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (15 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1622673 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of GASMSIA, and categorized this stock in the Watch List. |
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Jun 2 2014, 09:27 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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ARMADA Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/06/02/ar...sis-2-jun-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – Absolute EY%: – FY14: 3.93 – 5.51 (MOS: 35%) – R4Q: 2.80 – 3.85 (MOS: 8.6%) - Current orderbook is approximately RM13.3b with optional contract extensions of RM8.9b. Inclusive of the Angola FPSO, orderbook could stretch to RM31.7b. 74% of the orderbook consists of FPSO jobs, 11% T&I jobs and 15% OSV jobs. (FY14Q1) - I am not comfortable with financial positions of ARMADA despite increasing revenue and PATAMI. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (23 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1630937 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of ARMADA, and categorized this stock in Study/Discontinued List. |
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Jun 4 2014, 08:51 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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ALAM Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/06/04/al...sis-4-jun-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – Absolute EY%: – R4Q: Buy below 2.78, sell above 3.69 – FY15: Buy below 4.44, sell above 5.90 - Tender pipeline is strong, with 30 charters on firm bids. However, tender is just tender. - Day rates are holding steadily and utilisation is on the rise. There is good demand for Malaysian-flagged, Malaysian-owned and operated vessels. - ALAM is capable to leverage on PETRONAS’ stronger capex spending domestically. - Even if it’s undervalued, earnings of ALAM have been highly erratic and unpredictable. Also, ALAM is highly leveraged. - I will give it a pass. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (27 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1636269 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of ALAM, and categorized this stock in the Discontinued/Study List. |
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Jun 4 2014, 08:51 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PCHEM Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/06/04/pc...sis-4-apr-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – 10Y DCF: 7.88 – 9.35 (MOS: 14% – 28%) – Absolute EY%: – R4Q: Buy below 5.00, sell above 6.39 – FY15: Buy below 6.78, sell above 8.67 – Both models suggest that PCHEM is current undervalued. - Basically, this is a no-brainer and cash rich business. - I am interested to buy PCHEM for my sons. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (8 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1617061 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of PCHEM, and categorized this stock in the Watch List. |
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Jun 6 2014, 08:50 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PERDANA Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/06/06/pe...sis-6-jun-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value: – Absolute EY%: Buy Below 1.89, sell above 2.45 (MOS: 13%) - For this company, I can only evaluate its performance from 2010 onwards where PERDANA deconsolidated its previous second core business of brownfield services at Petra Energy Berhad. In FY2012, Perdana disposed of its remaining stake in Petra and became a pure offshore support services (OSV) provider. - Since 2010, – Revenue increased 2.3% from 254,887 (FY10) to 274,648 (FY13) – Net Profit turned to positive from -67,738 (FY10) to 61,660 (FY13) – Leverage increased very drastically. Debt-to-equity in FY13 was 102%! – FCF was also negative in the past 4 years. - PERDANA is a turn-around stock. Moving forward, PERDANA has ample room to expand its fleet size which is still considered medium as compared with Alam Maritim and Bumi Armada. Perdana is looking towards acquiring a few more brownfield vessels (AWBs) in the future. With Dayang roped in as its partner and grabbing the lion’s share of the recently awarded Pan Malaysia umbrella HUCC contracts, PERDANA’s AWBs will be frequently utilised. - Nevertheless, PERDANA had been bullish since 2012. I think PERDANA is fully valued. There are others possibly better public listed OSV out there, such as ARMADA, ALAM, etc… Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (22 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1630441 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of PERDANA, and categorized this stock in the Discontinued/Study List. |
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Jun 7 2014, 03:32 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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SKPETRO Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/06/07/sk...sis-7-jun-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value: – Absolute EY%: Buy below 5.92, sell above 7.68 (MOS: 31.53%) – SKPETRO is currently undervalued. - SapuraKencana is the most dynamic company in the oil & gas sector given its transformative developments that have led to a solid order book and earnings visibility. - I will study more about SKPETRO. Sometimes, it is quite difficult O&G business. Latest Financial – Annual Report 2014 (3 Jun 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1644849 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of SKPETRO, and categorized this stock in the Watch List. |
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Jun 9 2014, 10:29 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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WASEONG Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/06/09/wa...sis-9-jun-2014/ My View:- - Fair value – Absolute EY%: – FY14 (EPS: 0.136) : Buy below 2.96, sell above 4.17 – R4Q (EPS: 0.07) : Buy below 1.53, sell above 2.16 - Based on FY14Q1 results, WASEONG is in the right track to surpass last year result. We need to see FY14Q2 results for some confirmation. - As of now, I won’t place WASEONG in the Watch List because of declining results since 2008, high impairment charges, high debt and started plantation business in Congo. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (27 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1636221 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of WASEONG, and categorized this stock in the Discontinued/Study List. |
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Jun 9 2014, 09:00 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PETDAG Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/06/09/pe...sis-9-jun-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – 10Y DCF: 17.52 – 21.59 (MOS: -36% -> -11%) – Reversed DCF: 16% growth rate to reach 23.9. This also supports that PETDAG is overvalued. – Absolute EY%: – R4Q (EPS: 0.735): Buy below 17.70, sell above 21.05 (MOS: -21%) – FY14 (EPS: 0.881): Buy below 21.23, sell above 25.25 (MOS: 5%) – Both models indicate that PETDAG is overvalued. - A potential cutback in national carrier MAS’s routes effective FY15 could cause PETDAG’s jet fuel trade to descent. - Growth of this company in Malaysia is probably quite capped by market size. Besides, there are few more competitors here, such as Petron, Shell, BP, Caltex, etc… - I will put PETDAG in the Study List for the time being. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (6 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1615529 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of PETDAG, and categorized this stock in the Study List. |
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Jun 10 2014, 02:43 PM
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Senior Member
1,021 posts Joined: Jun 2012
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--
This post has been edited by tstan8_8: Jun 11 2014, 09:01 AM |
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Jun 10 2014, 09:11 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PERISAI Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/06/10/pe...is-10-jun-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – Absolute EY%: – R4Q (EPS: 0.038) – Buy below 0.61, sell above 0.76 – FY14 (EPS: 0.063) – Buy below 1.01, sell above 1.27 – I have tried to reversed EPS. I think estimation for FY15 is too optimistic. At 1.56, PERISAI needs to achieve 0.08 EPS. In the past 10 years, except 2012 (EPS: 0.11), PERISAI couldn’t achieve more than 0.075 EPS. - Thus, PERISAI’s valuation is pretty demanding. - I will place PERISAI in the Study List. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (15 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1623065 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of PERISAI, and categorized this stock in the Study List. |
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Jun 15 2014, 08:03 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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COASTAL Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/06/15/co...is-15-jun-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value: – 5-Y DCF: 5.82 – 6.61 (MOS: 19% – 28%) – Absolute EY%: – R4Q-EPS (EPS: 0.348): Buy below 2.22, sell above 2.71 – FY14-EPS (EPS: 0.382): Buy below 2.44, sell above 2.98 – I think the current price of COASTAL already factored in the future earnings. - I will further study this stock. So far, if not mistaken, COASTAL is probably one of the best OSV companies out there. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (28 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1638221 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of COASTAL, and categorized this stock in the Watch List. |
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Jun 21 2014, 12:32 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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SKPETRO Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/06/21/sk...is-21-jun-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value: – Absolute EY%: – FY13 (EPS: 0.189): Buy below 5.55, sell above 6.94 (MOS: 37.60%) – R4Q (EPS: 0.251): Buy below 7.35, sell above 9.20 (MOS: 52.92%) – FY14 (EPS: 0.215): Buy below 6.32, sell above 7.90 (MOS: 45.21%) – SKPETRO is currently undervalued. - SapuraKencana is the most dynamic company in the oil & gas sector given its transformative developments that have led to a solid order book and earnings visibility. - The strong performance for the quarter (FY15 Q1) was due mainly to the inclusion of tender rig business subsequent to the completion of its acquisition in April 2013, as well as the inclusion of SKEI (SapuraKencana Energy Inc) business subsequent to completion of its acquisition in February 2014. – The group also recognised RM177.8 million gain arising from the acquisition of SKEI. - Order book of RM27 billion consisting of contracts that span up to 2024 - I will study more about SKPETRO. Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (19 Jun 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1661765 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of SKPETRO, and categorized this stock in the Watch List. |
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Jun 26 2014, 09:40 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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SCIENTX Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/06/26/sc...is-26-jun-2014/ My View:- - Fair value/Market Timing: – 5Y DCF: 4.92 – 5.79 (MOS: -17% – 1%) – Absolute EY%: – FY13 (EPS: 0.51) Buy under 3.8, sell above 4.6 – R4Q (EPS: 0.587) Buy under 4.38, sell above 5.3 – FY14 (EPS: 0.663) Buy under 4.94, sell above 5.98 – SCIENTX is fully valued. - While the rise in raw material prices had affected margins for the manufacturing segment, I remain positive on SCIENTX’s longer term prospects. Ongoing expansion plans for higher margin consumer packaging films and product extensions such as the thinner gauge film (6 microns) should also provide added buffers against margin contractions. At the same time, the group has also recently completed the expansion of its stretch film capacity to 194k MT/ annum (Dec 2013), which would provide the impetus for growth in manufacturing revenue and accelerate the prospects of spinning off the Group’s property division. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (19 Jun 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1660645 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of SCIENTX, and categorized this stock in the Watch List. |
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Jun 27 2014, 12:09 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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HAIO Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/06/27/ha...is-27-jun-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5-Y DCF: 2.88 – 3.25 (MOS: 11% – 21%) – Absolute EY%: – FY14 (EPS: 0.206): Buy below 2.14, sell above 2.65 (MOS: 3%) – FY15 (EPS: 0.231): Buy below 2.40, sell above 2.98 (MOS: 14%) – Both models suggested contradict valuation, where DCF valuation is undervalued and Absolute EY% valuation is full valued. Nevertheless, absolute EY% valuation may not accurate for HAIO because it taken 2009 and 2010 into accounts where HAIO was encountering a drastic change in its business model. – So, I consider a simple valuation: – The current EY%: 8.7% – The current FCFY%: 9.43% – Both yields are way above bond and EPF return rate. – Therefore, by taking DCF, the current EY% and FCFY% into consideration, I think HAIO is still undervalued. – Looking at chart, HAIO has been moving in the range from 2.2 to 2.8. Besides, HAIO has a very strong support at 2.3 and 2.2. So, technically, we can accumulate HAIO. - Due to decline in the purchasing power of consumers and margins erosion due to the weakening of Ringgit against USD, I think HAIO FY14 performance will be mediocre. However, because healthcare product is quite essential nowadays, the impact will be short term only. With its expansion to Indonesian market, HAIO will have greater potential, rather than just focus on Malaysia market. - While I am positive on HAIO’s longer-term prospects as its MLM division is intensifying its product strategy by focusing on more "small ticket" items, which are affordable, the rise in operating cost and the depreciation of Ringgit would continue to affect their margins, going forward. - I will continue to hold HAIO, and accumulate HAIO whenever possible. Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (25 Jun 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1667225 At the time of writing, I owned shares of HAIO. |
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Jun 27 2014, 10:42 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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KMLOONG Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/06/27/km...is-27-jun-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5-Y DCF – 3.37 – 3.78 (MOS: 14% – 23%) – Absolute EY% – FY14 (EPS: 0.199): Buy below 2.12, sell above 2.48 – R4Q (EPS: 0.245): Buy below 2.60, sell above 3.05 – FY15 (EPS: 0.245): Buy below 2.60, sell above 3.05 – In my opinion, KMLOONG is just slightly above undervalued level. - The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. In a worst case scenario, KMLOONG, a net cash company with a low cost of production and an experienced management team would be able to withstand the turbulence and even take up expansion opportunities. Even in the ugly senario, it still worth 2.69. - Going forward, I expect KMLOONG to perform better in FY15 as it plans to improve production, while benefiting from favourable palm oil prices. - I will continue to hold KMLOONG, and may accumulate when possible. Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (26 Jun 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1668337 At the time of writing, I owned shares of KMLOONG. |
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Jun 28 2014, 10:27 PM
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Senior Member
2,211 posts Joined: Sep 2009 From: Kuala Lumpur
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Jun 27 2014, 10:42 PM) KMLOONG Analysis:- I like this as well... My TP 3.20 and stop at 2.85 http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/06/27/km...is-27-jun-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5-Y DCF – 3.37 – 3.78 (MOS: 14% – 23%) – Absolute EY% – FY14 (EPS: 0.199): Buy below 2.12, sell above 2.48 – R4Q (EPS: 0.245): Buy below 2.60, sell above 3.05 – FY15 (EPS: 0.245): Buy below 2.60, sell above 3.05 – In my opinion, KMLOONG is just slightly above undervalued level. - The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. In a worst case scenario, KMLOONG, a net cash company with a low cost of production and an experienced management team would be able to withstand the turbulence and even take up expansion opportunities. Even in the ugly senario, it still worth 2.69. - Going forward, I expect KMLOONG to perform better in FY15 as it plans to improve production, while benefiting from favourable palm oil prices. - I will continue to hold KMLOONG, and may accumulate when possible. Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (26 Jun 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1668337 At the time of writing, I owned shares of KMLOONG. |
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Jul 1 2014, 10:43 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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VITROX Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/07/01/vi...sis-1-jul-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – 5Y DCF: 1.75 – 1.98 (MOS: -16% -> -2%) – Absolute EY%: – FY13 (EPS: 0.104): Buy below 1.13, sell above 1.35 – R4Q (EPS: 0.119): Buy below 1.30, sell above 1.55 – FY14 (EPS: 0.151): Buy below 1.64, sell above 1.95 – At 2.55 (30 Jun 2014), the market assumed EPS 0.197. 0.197 is achievable based on the current outstanding booking, but this also means the current price already factored the future growth. – VITROX is fully valued. - I believe that FY14 will be a growth year for VITROX because of the recovery of global semiconductor industry and improving US, Japan and European markets. - I still sees a lot of growth in Vitrox – the catalysts from Agilent’s exit in 2016 and competitive products should help it compete to get individual orders. But with the trend moving towards a single supplier, which provides the entire array of testing equipment that seamlessly talk to each other, Vitrox is currently being left behind. A substantial change in its internal R&D activity to innovate or potential acquisitions with talents or acquisitions with new product offerings to complement its existing portfolio, are the only ways for Vitrox to grow in the longer term. - I will hold VITROX. I may sell it if it shows bearish reversal signal, or may accumulate it if its uptrend continues. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (22 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1630053 At the time of writing, I owned shares of VITROX. |
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Jul 2 2014, 10:54 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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GKENT Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/07/02/gk...sis-2-jul-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – 5Y DCF: 2.91 – 3.26 (MOS: 40% – 47%) – Absolute EY%: – FY14 (EPS: 0.16) – Buy under 1.78, sell above 2.12 – R4Q (EPS: 0.164) – Buy under 1.82, sell above 2.17 – FY15 (EPS: 0.179) – Buy under 1.99, sell above 2.37 – I think GKENT is still undervalued. If we just looking at the current EY% and FCFY%, the EY% and FCFY% are 9.25% and 10.06%. - GKENT has very strong competitive advantages where it is in a very good position in building wide economic moats. - GKENT has been moving in the range from 0.4 to 1.7 since 2004. It couldn’t break 1.7 twice (2004 and 2010). However, since 28 Mar 2014, GKENT has been so bullish (without obvious correction) and closed at 1.7 on 11 Apr 2014. For those investors who spotted and invested GKENT at lower price, thumb up to them. - The Group is proposing a bonus issue of 75,102,542 new ordinary shares on the basis of 1 bonus share for every 3 existing shares held. Subject to shareholders’ approval, the Proposed Bonus Issue will result in an increase in the Group’s issued and paid up number of shares to 300,410,168 from the existing 225,307,626 shares. - On 30 May 2014, GKENT completed the construction of the Semantan Intake Pahang-Selangor raw water transfer project, which was delivered on schedule. The completion of the former and the recognition of the tail-end revenue of the latter were the main reasons for the Group’s decline in its quarter-on-quarter revenue. Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (30 Jun 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1670461 At the time of writing, I owned shares of GKENT. |
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Jul 2 2014, 11:16 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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JCY Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/07/02/jc...sis-2-jul-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value: – FY13 (EPS: 0.09): Buy under 0.79, sell above 1.26 (MOS: 43.6%) – R4Q (EPS: 0.026): Buy under 0.23, sell above 0.37 (MOS: -93.47%) – FY14 (EPS: 0.045): Buy under 0.39, sell above 0.63 (MOS: -12.55%) – JCY is overvalued - Very low visibility to the future growth of this company. - I will skip this counter. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (19 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1626073 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of JCY, and categorized this stock in the Study List. |
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Jul 4 2014, 12:28 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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KESM Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/07/04/ke...sis-4-jul-2014/ My View:- - Fair value – FY13 (EPS: 0.106): Buy below 1.15, sell above 1.65 – R4Q (EPS: 0.194): Buy below 2.11, sell above 3.02 – FY14 (EPS: 0.146): Buy below 1.59, sell above 2.28 – KESM is currently over or fully valued - Company financial performance is not bad, but based on the pattern of its profitability (especially on quarterly results), there is material seasonal or cyclical fluctuation. - Stiff competition from China manufacturers. - I will skip this counter. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (29 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1639525 |
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Jul 6 2014, 01:33 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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GTRONIC Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/07/06/gt...sis-6-jul-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value – 3Y DCF: 3.8 – 4.14 (MOS: -14% -> -5%) – Absolute EY%: – FY13 (EPS: 0.19): Buy below 3.08, sell above 3.63 (MOS: -20%) – R4Q (EPS: 0.202): Buy below 3.27, sell above 3.85 (MOS: -20%) – FY14 (EPS: 0.202): Buy below 3.76, sell above 4.43 (MOS: 2%) – GTRONIC is already fully or over valued. - Strong fundamentals backed by improved earnings quality, better earnings visibility and healthy balance sheet with strong cash position – note that GtRONIC is expected to post its third consecutive years of record earnings in FY14E and we expect another solid year ahead in FY15 (+14.7% yoy) - Shariah status – Globe could be trade at a premium given the ample domestic liquidity and strong participation by domestic institutions. - I will study this stock further. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (29 Apr 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1608269 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of GTRONIC, and categorized this stock in the Watch List. |
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Jul 8 2014, 12:36 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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UCHITEC Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/07/08/uc...sis-8-jul-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – Absolute EY% – FY13 (EPS: 0.106): Buy below 0.94, sell above 1.29 – R4Q (EPS: 0.11): Buy below 0.98, sell above 1.34 – FY14 (EPS: 0.116): Buy below 1.04, sell above 1.42 – UCHITEC is fully valued. - UCHITEC has low earning visibility/predictability. - Although its dividend payout maintains above 80%, its Dividend Yield has been declining from 10% to 7%. – On one hand, at 1.41, you are still able to enjoy 7% dividend yield – On the other hand, is it possible for UCHITEC maintain high dividend payout while its net profit and free cash flow has been declining since 2008? - I will consider UCHITEC as a turnaround stock, and place it in my Study List. Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (22 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1630161 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of UCHITEC, and categorized this stock in the Study List. |
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Jul 10 2014, 09:38 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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MPI Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/07/10/mp...is-10-jul-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – FY13 (EPS: 0.057): Buy below 1.52, sell above 1.93 – R4Q (EPS: 0.249): Buy below 6.65, sell above 8.45 (MOS: 28%) – FY14 (EPS: 0.284): Buy below 7.58, sell above 9.63 (MOS: 36%) - MPI has good earnings visibility with the following strength: – Technical edge and product exposure that augur well for the current tech upcycle as well as the upcoming tech wave – Strategic product mixtures which gives a balanced exposure in cyclicality and defensiveness - MPI management shows their ability to react timely ahead of the curve of the tech upcycle as well as streamlining its affirmative action strategy for profitable growth. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (29 Apr 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1608857 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of MPI, and categorized this stock in the Watch List. |
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Jul 19 2014, 11:32 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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On 19 Jul, I conducted “Investment Analysis on Technology Industry”. The following are the excel files that I used for the workshop. I do not include some of my comments and analysis presented in the workshop in most of the excel. This is to be fair to the attendees. In the future, I will update the counters in Watch List and Family List with thorough analysis (like what I did to other counters in my Portfolio/Watch/Family List).
ECS – http://1drv.ms/1kG2Q5t (Study List) EFORCE – http://1drv.ms/1k1yMXj (Watch List) MSNIAGA – http://1drv.ms/1k1AyaM (Study List) MYEG – http://1drv.ms/1kG6FYm (Family List) SCICOM – http://1drv.ms/1kG7DUx (Study List) WILLOW – http://1drv.ms/1k1HCUV (Watch List) GTRONIC – https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/07/06/gt...sis-6-jul-2014/ (Watch List) JCY – https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/07/02/jc...sis-2-jul-2014/ (Study List) KESM – https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/07/04/ke...sis-4-jul-2014/ (Study List) MPI – https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/07/10/mp...is-10-jul-2014/ (Study List) UCHITEC – https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/07/08/uc...sis-8-jul-2014/ (Watch List) VITROX – https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/07/01/vi...sis-1-jul-2014/ (Portfolio) WCC asked me to do another workshop on 23 Aug: “Investment Analysis on Telco Industry and Utilities Industry”. |
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Jul 20 2014, 12:12 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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GKENT Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/07/20/gk...is-20-jul-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – 5Y DCF: 2.91 – 3.26 (MOS: 40% – 47%) – Absolute EY%: – FY14 (EPS: 0.16) – Buy under 1.78, sell above 2.12 – R4Q (EPS: 0.164) – Buy under 1.82, sell above 2.17 – FY15 (EPS: 0.179) – Buy under 1.99, sell above 2.37 – I think GKENT is still undervalued. If we just looking at the current EY% and FCFY%, the EY% and FCFY% are 9.25% and 10.06%. - GKENT has very strong competitive advantages where it is in a very good position in building wide economic moats. - GKENT has been moving in the range from 0.4 to 1.7 since 2004. It couldn’t break 1.7 twice (2004 and 2010). However, since 28 Mar 2014, GKENT has been so bullish (without obvious correction) and closed at 1.7 on 11 Apr 2014. For those investors who spotted and invested GKENT at lower price, thumb up to them. - The Group is proposing a bonus issue of 75,102,542 new ordinary shares on the basis of 1 bonus share for every 3 existing shares held. Subject to shareholders’ approval, the Proposed Bonus Issue will result in an increase in the Group’s issued and paid up number of shares to 300,410,168 from the existing 225,307,626 shares. - On 30 May 2014, GKENT completed the construction of the Semantan Intake Pahang-Selangor raw water transfer project, which was delivered on schedule. The completion of the former and the recognition of the tail-end revenue of the latter were the main reasons for the Group’s decline in its quarter-on-quarter revenue. Latest Financial – Annual Report 2014 (9 Jul 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1680197 At the time of writing, I owned shares of GKENT. |
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Jul 20 2014, 04:30 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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SUNWAY Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/07/20/su...is-20-jul-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – Absolute EY%: – FY13 (EPS: 0.945): Buy below 6.00, sell above 7.83 – FY13 (Normalised EPS: 0.45): Buy below 2.85, sell above 3.73 – R4Q (EPS: 0.874): Buy below 5.54, sell above 7.24 – FY14 (EPS: 0.279): Buy below 1.77, sell above 2.31 – FY15 (EPS: 0.303): Buy below 1.92, sell above 2.51 - The spike up of EPS in FY13 was due to "Gain upon former subsidiary becoming an associate" (RM661,254K) and "Gain upon former subsidiary becoming a joint venture" (RM108,370K). – If both gains are excluded, the normalised EPS is around 0.45. - I remain cautious on the increasingly crowded Iskandar Malaysia development and luxury property market which would be hit by the new property cooling measures amid stricter lending rules. However, earnings are well-supported by its MYR2.4bn unbilled sales (MYR2.2bn in 3Q13) and MYR3.9bn construction orderbook. - Moving forward, I still think that management’s sales target of RM1.8b on the back RM2.3b targeted launches is still highly realistic. Reason being that 82% of its upcoming launches are being priced below RM1.0m/unit which is more palatable for the market’s demand for ‘affordability’. If its upcoming Sunway Iskandar secures strong take-ups, I think stock price will have larger upside. Property unbilled sales of RM2.4b and remaining external orderbook of RM2.9b provides 1-1.5 years visibility. - I will continue to hold SUNWAY. Latest Financial – Annual Report 2013 (4 Jun 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1646921 At the time of writing, I owned shares of SUNWAY. |
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Jul 20 2014, 10:11 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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KMLOONG Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/07/20/km...is-20-jul-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5-Y DCF – 3.36 – 3.76 (MOS: 11% – 20%) – Absolute EY% – FY14 (EPS: 0.198): Buy below 2.11, sell above 2.47 – R4Q (EPS: 0.245): Buy below 2.60, sell above 3.05 – FY15 (EPS: 0.28): Buy below 2.98, sell above 3.49 – In my opinion, KMLOONG is just slightly above undervalued level. - The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. In a worst case scenario, KMLOONG, a net cash company with a low cost of production and an experienced management team would be able to withstand the turbulence and even take up expansion opportunities. Even in the ugly senario, it still worth 2.69. - Going forward, I expect KMLOONG to perform better in FY15 as it plans to improve production, while benefiting from favourable palm oil prices. - I will continue to hold KMLOONG, and may accumulate when possible. Latest Financial – Annual Report 2014 (3 Jul 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1675201 At the time of writing, I owned shares of KMLOONG. |
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Jul 21 2014, 12:29 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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BURSA Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/07/21/bu...is-21-jul-2014/ My View:- - Market Timing: – EY%: – FY13 (EPS: 0.325): Buy below 7.89, sell above 9.85 – R4Q (EPS: 0.323): Buy below 7.84, sell above 9.78 – FY14 (EPS: 0.36): Buy below 8.74, sell above 10.90 – FY15 (EPS: 0.393): Buy below 9.54, sell above 11.90 – BURSA is still undervalued. - In my opinion, in FY14, the following risks will outweigh the growth drivers – Withdrawal of foreign investors in very large scale. – US QE taper will cause higher volatility in the market. This may cause investors stay out of (or monitor) the equity market. - Despite risks of higher volatility due to QE taper, The 1Q14 earnings results were, in all, a good start to the year for Bursa. The increased interest by retail investors, in particular, is a positive sign. Local institutions remain a steady presence in the market, buffering stocks from the worst of the effects of selling by foreign investors. - I remain sanguine on the company’s outlook over the longer term, as a proxy for the country’s growth. Its business model is also fairly resilient. As mentioned above, recurring and other incomes, including interest income, is sufficient to cover some 91% of total operating expenses. - I will continue to hold BURSA, and may accumulate BURSA in the near term. Let see how it goes. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (17 Jul 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1686933 At the time of writing, I owned shares of BURSA. |
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Jul 21 2014, 09:06 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DIGI Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/07/21/di...is-21-jul-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5Y DCF: 6.12 – 6.98 (MOS: 8% – 20%) – Absolute EY%: – FY13 (EPS: 0.219) Buy below 4.89, sell above 5.87 – R4Q (EPS: 0.255) Buy below 5.67, sell above 6.82 – FY14 (EPS: 0.247) Buy below 5.51, sell above 6.62 – Both models indicate that DIGI is slighly undervalued. - The modernised network has improved the network quality and customer experience scorecard. This is evident with the 89% reduction in customer complaint. - Data monetisation continue to be Digi’s trump card as shown in the strong data revenue growth. - Operating margin also continues to improve as the company efficiently manages its expenses. - Digi’s practise of paying out almost all of its earnings serve as another sweetener to the stock. - The last time I accumulated DIGI was in Jul 2013 at 4.66. I will continue to hold, and accumulate DIGI whenever possible. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (17 Jul 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1686869 |
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Jul 21 2014, 09:08 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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TENAGA Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/07/21/te...is-21-jul-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – Absolute EY% – FY13 (EPS: 0.828): Buy below 9.57, sell above 12.02 (MOS: -2.15%) – R4Q (EPS: 0.945): Buy below 10.93, sell above 13.72 (MOS: 10.53%) – FY14 (EPS: 0.914): Buy below 10.57, sell above 13.28 (MOS: 7.51%) – FY15 (EPS: 0.960): Buy below 11.11, sell above 13.94 (MOS: 12%) - The optimistic outlook on electricity demand growth in Malaysia would be a booster to TNB’s revenue going forward but however, the following risks will discount the growth: i) the rising generation costs ii) expect a drag on its earnings should the hiccup in FCPT implementation continues. - The FCPT mechanism as a long-term catalyst for TNB and its uninterrupted implementation would send a positive signal to the market as it would provide a greater clarity on TNB’s long-term earnings. - I will continue to hold TENAGA, and may accumulate TENAGA in the future. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (16 Jul 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1685693 At the time of writing, I owned shares of TENAGA. |
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Jul 29 2014, 04:17 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PBBANK Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/07/29/pb...is-29-jul-2014/ My View:- - Fair values/Market Timing: – 5Y DCF: 15.46 – 18.12 (MOS: -29% – 10%) – Absolute EY%: – FY13 (EPS: 1.161): Buy below 15.08, sell above 18.67 (MOS: -6.48%) – R4Q (EPS: 1.175): Buy below 15.27, sell above 18.90 (MOS: -5.19%) – FY14 (EPS: 1.178): Buy below 15.30, sell above 18.93 (MOS: -5%) – FY15 (EPS: 1.266): Buy below 16.45, sell above 20.36 (MOS: -2.4%) – By looking at the fair values, I think PBBANK is now over valued. - PBBANK has been climbing up since Jul 2012 with couple of small corrections. As I forecasted in few months, PBBANK has been ranging somewhere around 20.00. - In FY14-FY15, intense competition amongst financial institutions for market share as well as the need for higher capital conservation due to the requirements of Basel III capital framework, will continue to put pressure on pricing of products and return on equity. PBBANK growth will be slowing down, and this is proven from the declining ROE in the past 5 years. – Besides, growth in the profit from its retail operations has been subdued at 0.03% due to pressures on margin while its hire purchase segment’s profit for 1HFY14 declined 8.2%yoy to higher impairment allowance and NIM compression. - With no near term catalyst,I will continue to hold and monitor PBBANK, but will not accumulate PBBANK at this moment. After holding PBBANK for almost 15 years, the dividend gains covered almost 95% of my cost. I will just let it float with so called "cost free". - For latest Banking sector analysis, please visit http://www.midf.com.my/images/pdf/research...MIDF-090614.pdf Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (24 Jul 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1693657 At the time of writing, I owned shares of PBBANK. |
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Aug 7 2014, 08:44 AM
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Senior Member
4,897 posts Joined: Aug 2005
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ May 16 2014, 02:28 PM) DIALOG Analysis:- Now after the BI, any latest research on this stock?http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/16/di...is-16-may-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – Absolute EY%: 2.41 – 4.66 (MOS: 20%) - Based on the current price (3.70 as of 16 May 2014), DIALOG is slightly undervalued. At this price, I have 20% MOS. - I am considering to accumulate DIALOG. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (15 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1623213 At the time of writing, I owned shares of DIALOG. |
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Aug 8 2014, 07:09 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(feralee @ Aug 7 2014, 08:44 AM) Now after the BI, any latest research on this stock? Waiting for quarterly result. |
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Aug 8 2014, 10:34 AM
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Senior Member
1,597 posts Joined: Nov 2005
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Bro,
Whats your take on CIMB with the merger and all? Price has gone down considerably , i sold all my shares @ 7.46 shortwhile back now thinking to buy back since price is hovering below RM7 Tx |
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Aug 12 2014, 10:35 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Recently, I am less active in my blog. Let me share some of non-work related activities that I have done and am currently doing:
1. Spending more time with my family 2. Reading Inferno (Robert Langdon) 3. Reading Why Moats Matter: The Morningstar Approach to Stock Investing 4. Finished preparing my presentation material for this workshop: Investment Analysis by Industry – Telecom & Utilities - This is a workshop conducted by Wealth Creation Code. I am their guest trainer. - They have some other courses as well, such as 10 Steps of Selecting Winning Stock and Value Growth Investment 5. Finished It’s Earnings That Count: Finding Stocks with Earnings Power for Long-Term Profits - I will put the ideas in this book into application. This is also related to the next activity. 6. Updating my excel template: - Remove some obsolete and useless data – This will be transparent to you unless you use Compare Files in Excel 2013 to find the differences. - Tidy up format and classification in Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement - To fix some of spotted inconsistencies in the classification and naming. This is highest priority at this moment - To prepare my excel to put ideas in It’s Earnings That Count: Finding Stocks with Earnings Power for Long-Term Profits into application. This will be a longer term project. I expect to release a beta version in November (or earlier). 7. As I will occasionally do workshop for WCC, I will change few spreadsheets, so that I can easily copy the contents in excel and paste into my presentation file. 8. I have another 8 major improvements in the backlog – I will gradually roll out these improvements in the next 4-6 months. |
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Aug 16 2014, 02:11 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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GTRONIC Analysis:-
Excel – https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/16/pe...is-16-aug-2014/ My View:- - Fair value – Absolute EY%: – FY13-EPS (EPS: 1.051) – Buy below 24.89, sell above 29.87 (MOS: 24%) – R4Q-EPS (EPS: 0.822) – Buy below 19.48, sell above 23.37 (MOS: 3%) – FY14-EPS (EPS: 0.875) – Buy below 20.72, sell above 24.87 (MOS: 9%) – FY15-EPS (EPS: 0.922) – Buy below 21.85, sell above 26.22 (MOS: 14%) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (22.64): 0.796 – Absolute DCF: – PETGAS’s DCF is declining in long term due to heavy capex. In theory, DCF is not suitable for PETGAS – However, based on its decline rate at -2%, PETGAS still worth RM29-34 based on 5-Y projection. - Upside room of this stock is slightly limited due to a lack of fresh catalysts (the Pengerang regasification terminal will only come onstream at the end of the decade). - Valuations may not very compelling, but not bad. PETGAS still appeals to funds seeking earnings stability. - I will continue to hold PETGAS. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (8 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1706157 At the time of writing, I owned shares of PETGAS. This post has been edited by lcchong76: Aug 16 2014, 09:34 PM |
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Aug 16 2014, 09:37 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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GTRONIC Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/16/gt...is-16-aug-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value – 3Y DCF: 3.59 – 3.91 (MOS: -38% -> -27%) – Absolute EY%: – FY13 (EPS: 0.19): Buy below 3.19, sell above 3.81 (MOS: -30%) – R4Q (EPS: 0.213): Buy below 3.57, sell above 4.27 (MOS: -16%) – FY14 (EPS: 0.236): Buy below 3.96, sell above 4.73 (MOS: -5%) – FY15 (EPS: 0.279): Buy below 4.69, sell above 5.60 (MOS: 11%) – GTRONIC is already fully or over valued. - PAT margin also expanded by +2.6ppts to 19.1% in 2Q14 from 16.5% in 2Q13. This is a result of better economies of scale, productivity improvement and effective cost control programme. - Shariah status – Globe could be trade at a premium given the ample domestic liquidity and strong participation by domestic institutions. - GTRONIC has been consistently delivering steady earnings growth by keeping pace with market demands. This was shown in its latest quarterly results announcement. With a growing cash pile, the company mostly will continue its attractive dividend payouts. I believe that there is still slight room for the stock to appreciate further with expectation on another solid year ahead in FY15, although the stock price has already advanced by +46.7%ytd. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (5 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1702209 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of GTRONIC. |
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Aug 19 2014, 09:43 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Aug 24 2014, 09:23 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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AHEALTH Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/24/ah...is-24-aug-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value: – Absolute EY% – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.32) – Buy below 3.14, sell above 3.91 (MOS: 3%) – R4Q (EPS: 0.266) – Buy below 2.6, sell above 3.24 (MOS: -17%) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.36) – Buy below 3.52, sell above 4.39 (MOS: 13.6%) – FY15 (EPS: 0.38) – Buy below 3.72, sell above 4.64 (MOS: 18.3%) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (3.79): 0.311 – DCF – 5Y DCF: 4.64 – 5.28 (MOS: 18% – 28%) - In 2013, RM 30 million was spent to acquire and retrofit a 50,000 square feet industrial building to support growing business volumes at Apex Pharma Marketing Pte Ltd in Singapore. – Thus, FY13 FCF is lower if compare to previous years. - As a pharmaceutical company, AHEALTH is a defensive company. Being in the industry that sells generic drugs and consumer healthcare products, the general demand for Apex’s products is unlikely to decrease in the period of economic downturn. The group will continue to launch 4 to 8 generic products per year, secure more agency lines, and expand the sales coverage of its wholesale business. - I may buy some shares of AHEALTH in the future. I will continue to monitor it. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (20 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1715313 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of AHEALTH. |
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Aug 24 2014, 10:37 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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AIRASIA Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/24/ai...is-24-aug-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value – Absolute EY% Valuation – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.13) – Buy below 1.55, sell above 2.16 (MOS: -10.6%) – R4Q (EPS: 0.283) – Buy below 3.38, sell above 4.7 (MOS: 49.2%) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.205) – Buy below 2.45, sell above 3.41 (MOS: 29.9%) – FY15 (EPS: 0.265) – Buy below 3.16, sell above 4.4 (MOS: 45.6%) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.39): 0.144 - I believe that FY2014 would be a better year as compared to 2013, with the expectation that yield would recover and its cost savings initiatives would boost earnings. - On the other hand, MAS and AIRASIA have guided that domestic and intra-ASEAN fares are unlikely to decline further from the already-low levels, but fares are unlikely to rise either, as capacity deployment over the next six months will be kept at present levels and there is no evidence of capacity rationalisation. As the weak 4Q13 fares carry over into 2014, some analysts expect MAA to experience an average 5% underlying yield compression in 2014, leading to a 26% core net profit decline. To make things worse, Thai AirAsia’s profit is likely to shrink and Indonesia AirAsia’s losses expand further this year. Thus, the analysts expect AirAsia’s group core net profit to fall a massive 43% yoy in 2014. The outlook may improve in 2015-16 as the losses are unsustainable for MAS and Malindo. I also conquer with their view. - Besides, further decline in pax yield and lower contributions from the overseas associates are expected for FY14 and FY15. - AirAsia has told Bursa Malaysia that it is proposing to buy up to 10% of its issued and paid-up share capital at any point in time. The proposed share buyback, if implemented, will enable AirAsia and its subsidiaries to utilise any of its surplus financial resources, which are not immediately required for other uses, to purchase its own shares from the market, the company said. The proposed share buyback is expected to stabilise the price of AirAsia shares and to prevent against speculation of the shares, when undervalued, to enhance investors’ confidence. (27 Feb 2014) - Analysts expect 2H14 to be better as the losses of its overseas associates in Indonesia and Philippines bottoming out in 2Q14. AirAsia would benefit from MAS’ restructuring should the latter trim down common routes which AirAsia also operates. - I have accumulated AIRASIA 3 times in Dec 2013 and Jan 2014 in the range from 2.3 to 2.4, so I won’t accumulate AIRASIA in near term or until it formed a new higher support. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (20 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1715569 At the time of writing, I owned shares of AIRASIA. |
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Aug 25 2014, 12:50 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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ARMADA Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/25/ar...is-25-aug-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.147) – Buy below 3.09, sell above 4.25 (MOS: 23.4%) – R4Q (EPS: 0.127) – Buy below 2.67, sell above 3.67 (MOS: 11.3%) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.165) – Buy below 3.46, sell above 4.76 (MOS: 31.5%) – FY15 (EPS: 0.197) – Buy below 4.13, sell above 5.69 (MOS: 42.7%) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (3.26): 0.113 - With four FPSO job wins (C7, Kraken, 15/06, Madura) in 18 months, its order backlog is currently MYR31b. Following the Madura FPSO, ARMADA’s orderbook could rise to RM35bn. This includes the LOI the Angolan FPSO project worth RM9.5bn which is pending negotiations of commercial terms and the final award is expected to come by month end. – This should keep Bumi Armada Bhd busy for the next eight years – Assuming a net margin of 20%, this would mean a profit of RM800 million per year. - I am not comfortable with financial positions of ARMADA despite increasing revenue and PATAMI. Besides, its net profit declined YoY for 3 consecutive quarters. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (20 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1715577 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of ARMADA. |
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Aug 25 2014, 11:08 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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COASTAL Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/25/co...is-25-aug-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value: – 5-Y DCF: – Fair value: 5.82 – 6.61 (MOS: 19% – 28%) – Absolute EY% Valuation: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.313) – Buy below 2.05, fair value 2.5 (MOS: -104.9%) – R4Q (EPS: 0.365) – Buy below 2.39, fair value 2.92 (MOS: -75.7%) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.358) – Buy below 2.35, fair value 2.87 (MOS: -78.9%) – FY15 (EPS: 0.402) – Buy below 2.63, fair value 3.22 (MOS: -59.5%) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (5.13): 0.641 - COASTAL’s business naturally is cyclical, and the shipbuilding division is currently riding the cyclical uptrend. Besides, I think that O&G sector started to slow down. Therefore, I won’t take 5-Y DCF valuation as consideration. - Looking at the current stock price (5.13), investors/traders assumed 0.641 EPS which much higher than R4Q and FY15 estimation. I believe that the current stock price already factored in the future earnings. - I will closely monitor this stock. This is a good stock for trading. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (21 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1716197 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of COASTAL. |
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Aug 25 2014, 08:16 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DELEUM Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/25/de...is-25-aug-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value – Absolute EY% Valuation: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.33) – Buy below 2.72, fair value 3.35 (MOS: 34%) – R4Q (EPS: 0.137) – Buy below 1.13, fair value 1.38 (MOS: -59.7%) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.142) – Buy below 1.17, fair value 1.44 (MOS: -53.6%) – FY15 (EPS: 0.171) – Buy below 1.41, fair value 1.73 (MOS: -27.5%) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.21): 0.218 – 5-Y DCF: – 2.51 – 2.84 (MOS: 12% – 22%) - The long term outlook looks bright for Deleum, with a RM3.5bn orderbook lasting up to 7 years and 2 major contracts commencing in FY14. - I will wait for bigger correction. Let see how it goes. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (20 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1715565 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DELEUM. |
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Aug 25 2014, 09:02 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DIALOG Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/25/di...is-25-aug-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – Absolute EY% valuation: – Trailing: – FY14 (EPS: 0.089) – Buy below 2.6, fair value 3.19 (MOS: 43%). If we divide FY14 Net Profit with the latest NOSH (5,127 mil), EPS will be 0.046. Thus, the fair value will be 1.65. (MOS: -10.5%) – R4Q (EPS: 0.089) – Buy below 2.6, fair value 3.19 (MOS: 43%). If we divide R4Q Net Profit with the latest NOSH (5,127 mil), EPS will be 0.046. Thus, the fair value will be 1.65. (MOS: -10.5%) – Forward: – FY15 (EPS: 0.056) – Buy below 1.64, fair value 2.01 (MOS: 9.5%) – FY16 (EPS: 0.069) – Buy below 2.01, fair value 2.47 (MOS: 26.3%) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.82): 0.051 - Based on the current price, DIALOG is just slightly undervalued. At this price, I have around 10% (FY15) – 26% (FY16) MOS. - Construction works for Phase 1A Pengerang CTF has already been completed in 1QCY14. Phase 1B and Phase 1C are expected to be completed in mid-2014 and end-2014. - Phase 2 should be "good-to-go" given that the Final Investment Decision (FID) for Petronas’ RAPID project has been approved. For now, the finalised tank terminal capacity and equity stake is pending. - The Balai RSC has apparently hit first-oil and is due for Extended Well Testing (EWT) program by 1QCY14. – Only expected earnings contributions from FY17, and as such, any project acceleration would be further earnings catalyst for DIALOG. - DIALOG is also banking-in on growth from the upstream services, logistics services – tank terminals and supply base, specialist products and services, E&C, fabrication, plant services and ePayment technology and solutions. - I may continue to accumulate DIALOG. Let see how it goes. Latest Financial – Q4 2014 (Interim FY14) Financial Report (21 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1717097 At the time of writing, I owned shares of DIALOG. |
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Aug 25 2014, 10:02 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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GAB Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/25/ga...is-25-aug-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5-Y DCF: – 10.02 – 11.55 (MOS: -35% – -17%) – Absolute EY% Valuation: – Trailing: – FY14 (EPS: 0.656) – Buy below 11.38, fair value 14.2 (MOS: 4.9%) – R4Q (EPS: 0.656) – Buy below 11.38, fair value 14.2 (MOS: 4.9%) – Forward: – FY15 (EPS: 0.62) – Buy below 10.76, fair value 13.42 (MOS: -0.6%) – FY16 (EPS: 0.704) – Buy below 12.22, fair value 15.24 (MOS: 11.4%) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (13.5): 0.624 - At the current price, GAB is still fully valued or over valued. Besides, MOS derived from all models are not up to my benchmark. - The dividend return spread between GAB and CARLSBG vs the 10-year MGS yield has narrowed to only 30-40bpts vs the historical 10-year average of 280-290bpts. (Source: RHB) - GAB’s focus on FY15 would be on better cost management by enhancing its efficiency and capability, while the product strategy would see better innovation with more quality new addition to its product portfolio. (Aug 2014) – In FY15, GAB plans to manage its cost more prudently by improving operational efficiency. Besides, the Group also expects to increase its portfolio by introducing more new products through innovation. New products launched in FY14, including Kirin Ichiban, the best-selling super premium brand in Japan and Smirnoff Ice, the world number 1 RTD brand which received good response, which was reflected in 4Q14 sales growth of 10.8% QoQ. Meanwhile, GAB would still be counting on its core brands, namely Heineken, Tiger and Guinness moving forward in sustaining the sales volume. Although GAB did not reveal the sales figure of the brands, we gathered that Heineken recorded the best sales growth among the core brands, followed by Tiger and Guinness in FY14. - GAB expects the Malt Liquor Market (MLM) moving forward to remain competitive and challenging, in view of the unfair competition from contraband beers, of which the sales price per unit is lower than the excise duty alone imposed on GAB’s beers as Malaysia has the second highest excise duties for beer and stout products in the world. Meanwhile, the Group is also concerned on the imminent implementation of the GST in April 2015, which may further dent the consumer sentiment and thus discretionary spending. - 2014/15 will be a challenging year for brewers due to competition from contrabrand beers and as consumer spending dwindles. - In my opinion, there is still some downside risk even though the share prices of both stocks have fallen sharply from last year’s peaks (down 30-45%). 11.60 – 13.00 is a good support zone, from fundamental and technical aspect. Chances of GAB dropping below this zone is low. - I may accumulate GAB if GAB prices declines below 12.00. Latest Financial – Q4 2014 (Interim FY14) Financial Report (21 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1716397 At the time of writing, I owned shares of GAB. |
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Aug 25 2014, 11:10 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DAYANG Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/25/da...is-25-aug-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.181) – Buy below 2.95, fair value 3.53 (MOS: -4.7%) – R4Q (EPS: 0.174) – Buy below 2.83, fair value 3.39 (MOS: -9.2%) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.259) – Buy below 4.22, fair value 5.05 (MOS: 26.7%) – FY15 (EPS: 0.291) – Buy below 4.75, fair value 5.69 (MOS: 34.9%) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (3.7): 0.19 - DAYANG’S longer-term prospects are strong given that c.77% of its RM4.5b orderbook extends until 2018. It is also a beneficiary of any improvements in associate PERDANA earnings. - DAYANG is currently undervalued. I am seriously considering to buy DAYANG, but I already have quite a few O&G counters in my portfolio. Thinking…… Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (22 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1717757 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DAYANG. |
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Aug 25 2014, 11:50 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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GASMSIA Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/25/ga...is-25-aug-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value: – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.134) – Buy below 2.74, fair value 3.43 (MOS: -3.9%) – R4Q (EPS: 0.138) – Buy below 2.82, fair value 3.54 (MOS: -0.7%) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.149) – Buy below 3.05, fair value 3.81 (MOS: 6.7%) – FY15 (EPS: 0.164) – Buy below 3.36, fair value 4.2 (MOS: 15.3%) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (3.56): 0.139 - With barely any change in its profit margin spread under the new tariff, FY14 is expected to be another strong year with full-year earnings impact from the 40MMScfd gas supply which started from July 2013 and another new additional 30MMScfd commencing Jan 2014 from the Melaka RGT. - However, it may not be easy for GASMSIA to sustain profit margin spread going forward given the dynamic of LNG prices. Nonetheless, forward business volume will be supported by the last portion of the 40MMScfd additional gas supply from the Melaka RGT which will be coming on-stream in Jan 2015. - Moving forward, price revision every six months for subsidised volume could hand some compensation to GMB should LNG price rising. - Volume growth in 2015 requires further 1) price hikes or 2) deferment of the reduction in regulated gas quota (from 382 to 300mmscfd) for GMB to preserve spreads. These events require approval from the Energy Commission and/or PETRONAS. There are substantial regulatory risks involved. - GASMSIA is typical a defensive stock, but current dividend yield is 3.8%. Besides, GASMSIA is just slightly undervalued. Looking at my current portfolio, I am keen to buy GASMSIA, but I don’t want to over-expose to the O&G industry. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (20 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1715781 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of GASMSIA. |
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Aug 26 2014, 03:20 PM
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Junior Member
169 posts Joined: Mar 2013
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Wow ur good
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Aug 26 2014, 08:06 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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MYEG Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/26/my...is-26-aug-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5-Y DCF: – 3.29 – 3.77 (MOS: 15% – 26%) – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY14 (EPS: 0.085) – Buy below 1.68, fair value 1.91 (MOS: -46.7%) – R4Q (EPS: 0.085) – Buy below 1.68, fair value 1.91 (MOS: -46.7%) – Forward: – FY15 (EPS: 0.126) – Buy below 2.5, fair value 2.84 (MOS: 1.6%) – FY16 (EPS: 0.16) – Buy below 3.17, fair value 3.6 (MOS: 22.2%) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.8): 0.125 - Looks like DCF and EY% valuation derived similar fair values. - This is a no-brainer business and fully blessed by our beloved Government. - I will advice to my family member to accumulate more shares of this stock. Latest Financial – Q4 2014 (Interim FY14) Financial Report (25 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1719837 At the time of writing, my family member owned shares of MYEG. |
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Aug 26 2014, 09:04 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PCHEM Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/26/pc...is-26-aug-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5-Y DCF: – 8.86 – 10.03 (MOS: 28% – 36%) – The assumption is PCHEM just need to grow its FCF with 4% CAGR in the future five years. I think this is achievable. – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.393) – Buy below 5.79, fair value 7.39 (MOS: 13.5%) – R4Q (EPS: 0.298) – Buy below 4.39, fair value 5.61 (MOS: -14.1%) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.43) – Buy below 6.34, fair value 8.09 (MOS: 20.9%) – FY15 (EPS: 0.465) – Buy below 6.85, fair value 8.75 (MOS: 26.9%) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (6.4): 0.34 - I do not expect that earnings in FY14 will match that of FY13 despite the end of major turnaround activities. There will be other smaller planned maintenance exercise which will not severely impact overall group earnings. However, I think that this is a short term problem. In long term, growth drivers of PCHEM are still intact. - My family member accumulated some shares yesterday at 6.42, and will continue to hold and accumulate. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (11 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1706501 At the time of writing, my family member owned shares of PCHEM. She bought this stock below 6.00 last time. From now on, I will keep track this stock for her. |
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Aug 26 2014, 11:26 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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UCHITEC Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/26/uc...is-26-aug-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – Absolute EY% – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.106) – Buy below 1.08, fair value 1.32 (MOS: -8%) – R4Q (EPS: 0.115) – Buy below 1.18, fair value 1.44 (MOS: 0.9%) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.116) – Buy below 1.18, fair value 1.45 (MOS: 1.6%) – FY15 (EPS: 0.125) – Buy below 1.28, fair value 1.57 (MOS: 8.6%) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.43): 0.114 – UCHITEC is fully valued. - UCHITEC has low earning visibility/predictability. - Although its dividend payout maintains above 80%, its Dividend Yield has been declining from 10% to 7%. – On one hand, at 1.41, you are still able to enjoy 7% dividend yield – On the other hand, is it possible for UCHITEC maintain high dividend payout while its net profit and free cash flow has been declining since 2008? - Though 1H14 earnings rose 8.3% yoy, EBITDA margin declined by 3.5% pts on the back of lower shipment volumes and higher labour and utilities costs. Management is guiding for flat shipment volume in the 2H due to uncertainty in global economy and industry demand. - I will consider UCHITEC as a turnaround stock, and place it in my Watch List. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (19 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1713941 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of UCHITEC. |
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Aug 27 2014, 06:49 PM
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Senior Member
567 posts Joined: Feb 2006
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Aug 26 2014, 08:06 PM) MYEG Analysis:- Hi Chong,https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/26/my...is-26-aug-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5-Y DCF: – 3.29 – 3.77 (MOS: 15% – 26%) – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY14 (EPS: 0.085) – Buy below 1.68, fair value 1.91 (MOS: -46.7%) – R4Q (EPS: 0.085) – Buy below 1.68, fair value 1.91 (MOS: -46.7%) – Forward: – FY15 (EPS: 0.126) – Buy below 2.5, fair value 2.84 (MOS: 1.6%) – FY16 (EPS: 0.16) – Buy below 3.17, fair value 3.6 (MOS: 22.2%) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.8): 0.125 - Looks like DCF and EY% valuation derived similar fair values. - This is a no-brainer business and fully blessed by our beloved Government. - I will advice to my family member to accumulate more shares of this stock. Latest Financial – Q4 2014 (Interim FY14) Financial Report (25 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1719837 At the time of writing, my family member owned shares of MYEG. Nice work there. Do you care to explain a little on the bolded part? How did you get the "buy below", "fair value" and "MOS" and what does it all mean? Thanks in advance. |
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Aug 27 2014, 09:50 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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VITROX Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/27/vi...is-27-aug-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – 5Y DCF: 2.10 – 2.39 (MOS: -28% -> -13%) – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.104) – Buy below 1.15, fair value 1.37 (MOS: -97.2%) – R4Q (EPS: 0.177) – Buy below 1.95, fair value 2.33 (MOS: -16%) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.18) – Buy below 1.98, fair value 2.36 (MOS: -14.2%) – FY15 (EPS: 0.183) – Buy below 2.02, fair value 2.41 (MOS: -12%) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.7): 0.205 – At 2.7, the market assumed EPS 0.205. 0.197 is achievable based on the current outstanding booking, but this also means the current price already factored in its superb trajectory growth. – VITROX is over valued. The current price already factored in the future earnings. - I believe that FY14 will be a growth year for VITROX because of the recovery of global semiconductor industry and improving US, Japan and European markets. - I still sees a lot of growth in Vitrox – the catalysts from Agilent’s exit in 2016 and competitive products should help it compete to get individual orders. But with the trend moving towards a single supplier, which provides the entire array of testing equipment that seamlessly talk to each other, Vitrox is currently being left behind. A substantial change in its internal R&D activity to innovate or potential acquisitions with talents or acquisitions with new product offerings to complement its existing portfolio, are the only ways for Vitrox to grow in the longer term. - I will continue to hold VITROX, and will accumulate VITROX if there is correction. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (21 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1716629 At the time of writing, I owned shares of VITROX. |
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Aug 27 2014, 09:51 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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WILLOW Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/27/wi...is-27-aug-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5-Y DCF: – 2.03 – 2.31 (MOS: 57% – 62%) – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.08) – Buy below 0.65, fair value 0.73 (MOS: -19.8%) – R4Q (EPS: 0.081) – Buy below 0.67, fair value 0.74 (MOS: -17.3%) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.091) – Buy below 0.75, fair value 0.83 (MOS: -4.5%) – FY15 (EPS: 0.104) – Buy below 0.85, fair value 0.95 (MOS: 8.3%) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (0.87): 0.095 - I think the current price already factored in the future earnings. On the other hand, looking at its cash flow growth, WILLOW is still undervalued in long term (5 years). - I will continue to study this stock. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (20 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1715229 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of WILLOW. |
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Aug 27 2014, 09:52 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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CARLSBG Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/27/ca...is-27-aug-2014/ My View:- - Fair values/Market Timing: – 5-Y DCF: – 12.80 – 14.71 (MOS:4% – 17%) – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.602) – Buy below 10.16, fair value 12.5 (MOS: 2.1%) – R4Q (EPS: 0.637) – Buy below 10.76, fair value 13.24 (MOS: 7.6%) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.626) – Buy below 10.58, fair value 13.02 (MOS: 6%) – FY15 (EPS: 0.659) – Buy below 11.13, fair value 13.7 (MOS: 10.6%) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (12.24): 0.589 - Going forward, I remain conservative and skeptical above volume growth in the brewery sector as some reports show that the industry is saturated, coupled with several other external factors such as rising fuel costs, inflation as well as potential exposure to excise duty hike in the near future. However, earnings should be sustainable at current levels. - 2014 will be a challenging year for brewers due to competition from contrabrand beers and as consumer spending dwindles. Fortunately, this will be partially alleviated by the Visit Malaysia Year 2014 event. - In my opinion, there is still some downside risk even though the share prices of both stocks have fallen sharply from last year’s peaks (down 30-45%). 10.24 – 11.50 is a good support zone, from technical aspect. Chances of CARLSBG dropping below this zone is low. - CARLSBG is determined to move away from a single star beer product company to become a star beer portfolio company. Over the past 10 years, CARLSBG has been trying to launch a couple of new products into the market. To date, however, its Carlsberg Green Label is still viewed as the group’s only crown jewel. As such, a reshuffle has been undertaken in its top management team over the last 2 to 3 years with the aim of bringing good changes to the group. Besides, it has also appointed a few brand managers to oversee the brand building efforts across a few main products, whereby premium brands are expected to form a larger proportion of its new product portfolio. While efforts are being made to build market share for its premium products, the Carlsberg Green Label will remain as the bread and butter of the group. Whether or not CARLSBG will be able to return to its former glory, it is still too early to tell, but the good efforts warrant CARLSBG a buy/hold call for the long term. There are downside risks if things do not turn out as expected. - At the current price (12.24), CARLSBG is slightly under valued. I am considering to accumulate CARLSBG because its DY% maintains at 5%. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (26 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1720665 At the time of writing, I owned shares of CARLSBG. |
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Aug 27 2014, 11:49 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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EFORCE Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/08/27/ef...is-27-aug-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5-Y DCF: – 1.14 – 1.30 (MOS: 40% – 47%) – EFORCE is a rich cash flow company. In long term, EFORCE is very undervalued. – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.034) – Buy below 0.38, fair value 0.45 (MOS: -53%) – R4Q (EPS: 0.035) – Buy below 0.39, fair value 0.46 (MOS: -48.6%) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.037) – Buy below 0.41, fair value 0.49 (MOS: -41.1%) – FY15 (EPS: 0.04) – Buy below 0.45, fair value 0.52 (MOS: -30.6%) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (0.685): 0.052 – In short term, EFORCE is probably undervalued. - EFORCE has been declining from 0.86 to 0.63 since 4 Jul 2014. - This is another good stock I consider to buy, but I am just not sure about its growth drivers because Malaysia market in stock trading is not as big as US/Europe. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (26 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1721493 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of EFORCE. |
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Aug 28 2014, 08:12 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Aug 28 2014, 09:24 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Aug 29 2014, 10:05 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Aug 29 2014, 11:01 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Aug 30 2014, 01:00 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Aug 31 2014, 12:39 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Aug 31 2014, 12:41 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Sep 1 2014, 01:33 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Sep 3 2014, 09:27 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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New Changes in Excel – Discount Rate & Fair Value Uncertainty - http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/09/03/ne...te-uncertainty/
This post has been edited by lcchong76: Sep 3 2014, 09:28 PM |
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Sep 3 2014, 09:31 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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SIME Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/09/03/si...sis-3-sep-2014/ My View:- - Fair values/Market Timing: – 5Y DCF: – 6.7 – 7.79 (Fair Value Uncertainty is HIGH) – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY14 (EPS: 0.556) – Fair value 8.75 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 0.556) – Fair value 8.75 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Forward: – FY15 (EPS: 0.579) – Fair value 9.12 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – FY16 (EPS: 0.63) – Fair value 9.92 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (9.48): 0.602 – Both models indicate either overvalued or fully valued. Also, the uncertainty of fair values are high. - The share price driver will be the potential spin off exercise within SIME business divisions which should allow SIME valuation to be rerated higher as it should emerge as pure planter. As it is, it has been reported by media quoting Tan Sri Mohd Bakke Salleh specifying that the listing of its motor unit is set to be executed in 1HCY15 subject to market conditions. - I will continue to hold SIME. Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (29 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1726089 At the time of writing, I owned shares of SIME. |
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Sep 3 2014, 11:40 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Source: http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/09/03/wh...come-statement/
While I will be working on some minor enhancements (most likely transparent to you) in my back log, I will be focusing primarily on applying Defensive & Enterprising Income Statement. "It’s Earnings That Count: Finding Stocks with Earnings Power for Long-Term Profits" details a method for triangulating the true earnings power of public companies. The method is to construct Defensive & Enterprising Income Statement. Concepts behind this method sounds great, but I need to put them into application in order to test its effectiveness. Unlike Discount Rate and Uncertainty, the Defensive & Enterprising Income Statement is just an add-on to my stock analysis. Thus, you may be able to see 1-2 new spreadsheet in my excel in the future. If I found this method is not effective, I will stop my research. |
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Sep 14 2014, 12:55 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DAYANG Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/09/14/da...is-14-sep-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.146) – Fair value 3.24 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 0.174) – Fair value 3.85 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.252) – Fair value 5.58 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – FY15 (EPS: 0.284) – Fair value 6.29 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (3.5): 0.158 - Dayang’s current orderbook is RM4.7b, lasting through to 2018. The company’s tenderbook is approximately RM1b. Base on its historical tender success rate of 40-50%, new order replenishment of RM400-500m is expected by the end of this year. The bulk of the new jobs could be engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning (EPCC) of offshore structures. There could potentially be another RM3-4b worth of local offshore EPCC jobs up for grabs in the next 2-3 years. It is also a beneficiary of any improvements in associate PERDANA earnings. - Market speculations on Perdana Petroleum. Apart from utilising the private placement funds for its foray into the EPCC segment and for the Pan Malaysia HUC jobs, there are market speculations that Dayang is interested to increase its stake in its associate company, Perdana Petroleum. We believe that this market speculation might hold some truths in it. Our view is that Perdana Petroleum could potentially be dropped from the Securities Commission Shariah-compliant list as the company has a gross debt level of approximately RM594m, out of which, RM533m is in USD denominated debts. As such, Lembaga Tabung Haji which owns a direct and indirect stake of 8.43% (62.2m units) and 0.21% (1.56m units) respectively might be forced to dispose all of its shareholdings in the company. Since Dayang already has a 24.5% strategic stake in Perdana Petroleum, there is a possibility of the company taking up all of Lembaga Tabung Haji’s stake, which at current price level is worth a total RM113m. However, this could then trigger a general offer, which would require Dayang to acquire Perdana’s remaining shares worth an approximate RM870m. This could be done via bank borrowings and share swap. - I am generally positive on the current developments and progress of Dayang’s HUC projects. In addition, the company is venturing into the EPCC segment of the value chain. Given the company’s history and reputation of being a conservative and risk-averse company, the EPCC venture will bear fruit in the medium to long term. - DAYANG is currently undervalued. I am seriously considering to buy DAYANG, but I already have quite a few O&G counters in my portfolio. Thinking.……. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (22 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1717757 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DAYANG. |
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Sep 15 2014, 07:35 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PCHEM Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/09/15/pc...is-15-sep-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5-Y DCF: – Base Scenario – 6.11 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Good Scenario – 6.81 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.393) – Fair value 7.38 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – R4Q (EPS: 0.298) – Fair value 5.6 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.421) – Fair value 7.89 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – FY15 (EPS: 0.463) – Fair value 8.68 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (6.3): 0.336 - I do not expect that earnings in FY14 will match that of FY13 despite the end of major turnaround activities. There will be other smaller planned maintenance exercise which will not severely impact overall group earnings. However, I think that this is a short term problem. In long term, growth drivers of PCHEM are still intact. - My family member accumulated some shares yesterday at 6.42, and will continue to hold and accumulate. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (11 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1706501 At the time of writing, my family member owned shares of PCHEM. |
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Sep 15 2014, 10:48 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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OCK Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/09/15/oc...s-15-sept-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.05) – Fair value 1.12 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 0.049) – Fair value 1.1 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.07) – Fair value 1.57 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – FY15 (EPS: 0.09) – Fair value 2.02 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.44): 0.064 - I will revisit OCK after completion of the purchase of an 85% stake in PT Putra Mulia Telecommunication (PMT). My worry is Indonesia government may interfere this acquisition. - If the acquisition is successful, I will seriously consider to buy this stock. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (28 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1724733 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of OCK. |
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Sep 15 2014, 10:49 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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GAB Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/09/15/ga...s-15-sept-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5-Y DCF: – Base Scenario: 11.88 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – Good Scenario: 13.63 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH) – Bad Scenario: 10.32 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME) – Absolute EY% Valuation: – Trailing: – FY14 (EPS: 0.656) – Fair value 14.18 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – R4Q (EPS: 0.656) – Fair value 14.18 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Forward: – FY15 (EPS: 0.64) – Fair value 13.83 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – FY16 (EPS: 0.669) – Fair value 14.46 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (13.12): 0.607 - At the current price, fair value uncertainty for both models are from MEDIUM to HIGH. - The dividend return spread between GAB and CARLSBG vs the 10-year MGS yield has narrowed to only 30-40bpts vs the historical 10-year average of 280-290bpts. (Source: RHB) - GAB’s focus on FY15 would be on better cost management by enhancing its efficiency and capability, while the product strategy would see better innovation with more quality new addition to its product portfolio. (Aug 2014) – In FY15, GAB plans to manage its cost more prudently by improving operational efficiency. Besides, the Group also expects to increase its portfolio by introducing more new products through innovation. New products launched in FY14, including Kirin Ichiban, the best-selling super premium brand in Japan and Smirnoff Ice, the world number 1 RTD brand which received good response, which was reflected in 4Q14 sales growth of 10.8% QoQ. Meanwhile, GAB would still be counting on its core brands, namely Heineken, Tiger and Guinness moving forward in sustaining the sales volume. Although GAB did not reveal the sales figure of the brands, we gathered that Heineken recorded the best sales growth among the core brands, followed by Tiger and Guinness in FY14. - GAB expects the Malt Liquor Market (MLM) moving forward to remain competitive and challenging, in view of the unfair competition from contraband beers, of which the sales price per unit is lower than the excise duty alone imposed on GAB’s beers as Malaysia has the second highest excise duties for beer and stout products in the world. Meanwhile, the Group is also concerned on the imminent implementation of the GST in April 2015, which may further dent the consumer sentiment and thus discretionary spending. - 2014/15 will be a challenging year for brewers due to competition from contrabrand beers and as consumer spending dwindles. - In my opinion, there is still some downside risk even though the share prices of both stocks have fallen sharply from last year’s peaks (down 30-45%). 11.60 – 13.00 is a good support zone, from fundamental and technical aspect. Chances of GAB dropping below this zone is low. - If GAB manage to achieve growth in FY15, that means GAB have managed the [impact of] GST and played the market share game well. If that happens, GAB will be good to go. - GAB will not make any profit out of the GST, but they need to get the margins right for the distributors and they need to recommend the distributor price. However, they cannot set pricing in the whole tier system. - I may accumulate GAB if GAB declines below 12.50. Latest Financial – Q4 2014 (Interim FY14) Financial Report (21 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1716397 At the time of writing, I owned shares of GAB. |
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Sep 16 2014, 03:35 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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CANONE Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/09/16/ca...s-16-sept-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value: – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.457) – Fair value 3.63 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – R4Q (EPS: 0.463) – Fair value 3.68 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.48) – Fair value 3.81 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – FY15 (EPS: 0.504) – Fair value 4 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.48): 0.312 - As of now, valuation of CANONE looks quite attractive. - I have to further study this counter and compare with its competitors. – Another thing I need to study is the story of KIANJOO and CANONE. - I will put this stock in my watch list for the time being. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (28 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1725717 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of CANONE. |
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Sep 17 2014, 10:23 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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KIANJOO Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/09/17/ki...s-17-sept-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – 5-Y DCF: – Base Scenario: 3.93 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – Good Scenario: 4.45 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – Bad Scenario: 3.46 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.266) – Fair value 2.97 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 0.232) – Fair value 2.59 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.287) – Fair value 3.2 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – FY15 (EPS: 0.318) – Fair value 3.55 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (3.01): 0.27 - I think that KIANJOO is currently undervalued. - Given the on-going uncertainties surrounding its corporate exercise, I continue to see its share price movement being lackluster. - If the proposed transaction materializes, you will have a certain RM3.36 per share in your pocket (RM3.30 cash offer + 6.25sen dividend recently paid). - If not, we will still see that value materializing, but over the longer term as it remains imperative parent-company Can-One squeeze out further operational improvements (and essentially stronger earnings, thereby increasing its intrinsic value) from KJC for greater dividend income. - I think KJC’s growth prospects will continue to be valid as depicted by its consistent sales growth despite the steep contraction in earnings in 1HFY14 (-24.3% YoY). This was chiefly due to its continuous capacity expansion with the most recent in Indonesia. Although the contraction in operating margin was steep in 1HFY14, it is inconsistent with recent historical trend and as such, it may not sustainable on the back of economies of scale and its price escalation mechanism especially for the aluminium cans segment. On the other hand, KJC is good for healthy balance sheet and dividend yield. - After studied story of KIANJOO and CANONE, I found that KIANJOO’s management provided very limited access and information flow. Delays in finalizing the privatization deal has also put further pressure on its share price, which closed at RM3.01 (17 Sep 2014), raising the possibility for the privatization to go through at RM3.30/share. - Due to the uncertainties, I will revisit KIANJOO if the privatization does not take effect and if circumstances are warranted. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (28 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1725593 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of KIANJOO. |
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Sep 18 2014, 11:58 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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GKENT Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/09/18/gk...s-19-sept-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY14 (EPS: 0.161) – Fair value 2.13 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – R4Q (EPS: 0.126) – Fair value 1.68 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Forward: – FY15 (EPS: 0.141) – Fair value 1.87 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – FY16 (EPS: 0.155) – Fair value 2.06 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.58): 0.119 – I think GKENT is still undervalued. If we just looking at the current EY% and FCFY%, the EY% and FCFY% are 10.2% and 28.5%. - GKENT has very strong competitive advantages where it is in a very good position in building wide economic moats. - On 30 May 2014, GKENT completed the construction of the Semantan Intake Pahang-Selangor raw water transfer project, which was delivered on schedule. The completion of the former and the recognition of the tail-end revenue of the latter were the main reasons for the Group’s decline in its quarter-on-quarter revenue. - I will accumulate GKENT as it is having correction now. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (17 Sept 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1741749 At the time of writing, I owned shares of GKENT. |
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Sep 18 2014, 11:59 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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BRAHIMS Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/09/18/br...s-18-sept-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value: – Absolute EY% – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.101) – Fair value 2.71 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – R4Q (EPS: 0.104) – Fair value 2.79 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.103) – Fair value 2.75 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – FY15 (EPS: 0.119) – Fair value 3.17 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.34): 0.05 - Although this counter is currently undervalued, there are too many uncertainties in Brahim’s business. - For the time being, I will place this stock in the Study List. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (26 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1721213 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of BRAHIMS. |
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Sep 19 2014, 10:25 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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COCOLND Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/09/19/co...s-19-sept-2014/ My View:- - Fair Values: – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.128) – Fair value 2.56 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – R4Q (EPS: 0.126) – Fair value 2.51 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.114) – Fair value 2.27 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – FY15 (EPS: 0.126) – Fair value 2.51 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.55): 0.078 - COCOLND is currently undervalued, and the fair value ranges from 2.27 to 2.51. - I think the recent price decline of COCOLND is caused by withdrawal of foreign funds. - I will keep this stock in the Watch List. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (25 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1719025 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of COCOLND. |
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Sep 21 2014, 12:03 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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TENAGA Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/09/20/te...s-20-sept-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – Absolute EY% – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.828) – Fair value 11.43 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 0.945) – Fair value 13.05 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.909) – Fair value 12.55 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – FY15 (EPS: 0.96) – Fair value 13.26 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (12.38): 0.897 - The optimistic outlook on electricity demand growth in Malaysia would be a booster to TNB’s revenue going forward but however, the following risks will discount the growth: i) the rising generation costs ii) expect a drag on its earnings should the hiccup in FCPT implementation continues. - The FCPT mechanism as a long-term catalyst for TNB and its uninterrupted implementation would send a positive signal to the market as it would provide a greater clarity on TNB’s long-term earnings. - I will continue to hold TENAGA, and may accumulate TENAGA in the future. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (16 Jul 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1685693 At the time of writing, I owned shares of TENAGA. |
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Sep 21 2014, 12:45 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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CYPARK Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/09/21/cy...s-21-sept-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – Absolute EY% – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.218) – Fair value 2.71 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 0.214) – Fair value 2.67 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.246) – Fair value 3.07 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – FY15 (EPS: 0.306) – Fair value 3.81 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.7): 0.217 - I will place this counter back to the Watch List. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (30 Jun 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1671941 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of CYPARK. |
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Sep 22 2014, 11:51 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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CARLSBG Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/09/22/ca...s-22-sept-2014/ My View:- - Fair values/Market Timing: – 5-Y DCF: – Good Scenario – 12.67 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Base Scenario – 11.06 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – Bad Scenario – 9.63 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME) – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.602) – Fair value 12.49 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 0.637) – Fair value 13.24 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.624) – Fair value 12.97 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – FY15 (EPS: 0.656) – Fair value 13.63 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (12.44): 0.599 - Going forward, I remain conservative and skeptical above volume growth in the brewery sector as some reports show that the industry is saturated, coupled with several other external factors such as rising fuel costs, inflation as well as potential exposure to excise duty hike in the near future. However, earnings should be sustainable at current levels. - 2014 will be a challenging year for brewers due to competition from contrabrand beers and as consumer spending dwindles. Fortunately, this will be partially alleviated by the Visit Malaysia Year 2014 event. - In my opinion, there is still some downside risk even though the share prices of both stocks have fallen sharply from last year’s peaks (down 30-45%). 10.24 – 11.50 is a good support zone, from technical aspect. Chances of CARLSBG dropping below this zone is low. - CARLSBG is determined to move away from a single star beer product company to become a star beer portfolio company. Over the past 10 years, CARLSBG has been trying to launch a couple of new products into the market. To date, however, its Carlsberg Green Label is still viewed as the group’s only crown jewel. As such, a reshuffle has been undertaken in its top management team over the last 2 to 3 years with the aim of bringing good changes to the group. Besides, it has also appointed a few brand managers to oversee the brand building efforts across a few main products, whereby premium brands are expected to form a larger proportion of its new product portfolio. While efforts are being made to build market share for its premium products, the Carlsberg Green Label will remain as the bread and butter of the group. Whether or not CARLSBG will be able to return to its former glory, it is still too early to tell, but the good efforts warrant CARLSBG a buy/hold call for the long term. There are downside risks if things do not turn out as expected. - At the current price (12.44), valuation of CARLSBG is not attractive. However, recently I accumulated a bit of CARLSBG shares because its DY% maintains at 5%. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (26 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1720665 At the time of writing, I owned shares of CARLSBG. |
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Sep 24 2014, 08:48 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PWROOT Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/09/24/pw...s-24-sept-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value: – 10-Y DCF: – Base scenario (14%): 2.43 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Good scenario (18%): 2.95 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – Bad scenario (10%): 2.01 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Growth rate applied in Reverse DCF to reach the current stock price (1.95): 9% – The historical growth rate of FCF is 17%, so the assumption of 14% growth rate for the next 10 years may be valid. – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY14 (EPS: 0.129) – Fair value 2.21 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – R4Q (EPS: 0.126) – Fair value 2.16 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Forward: – FY15 (EPS: 0.137) – Fair value 2.34 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – FY16 (EPS: 0.145) – Fair value 2.48 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.95): 0.114 - This company is stable, but hardly to expect high growth in long term. May be a good stock to accumulate during economy recession. - In my opinion, PWROOT’s ready-to-drink products are not really healthy. I think in long term, people will be more health conscious and consumption of these products may be reduced gradually. Nevertheless, this won’t happen in near future. - I will place this stock in Watch List and do comparison with its competitors. Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (30 Jul 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1697517 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of PWROOT. |
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Sep 27 2014, 08:22 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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HAIO Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/09/27/ha...s-27-sept-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY14 (EPS: 0.205) – Fair value 2.71 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 0.193) – Fair value 2.56 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Forward: – FY15 (EPS: 0.189) – Fair value 2.51 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – FY16 (EPS: 0.203) – Fair value 2.69 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.57): 0.194 – HAIO valuation is fully valued now. – Looking at chart, HAIO has been moving in the range from 2.2 to 2.8. Besides, HAIO has a very strong support at 2.3 and 2.2. So, technically, I can accumulate HAIO. - Due to decline in the purchasing power of consumers and margins erosion due to the weakening of Ringgit against USD, I think HAIO FY15 performance will be mediocre (or just slightly higher than FY14). However, because healthcare product is quite essential nowadays, the impact will be short term only. With its expansion to Indonesian market, HAIO will have greater potential, rather than just focus on Malaysia market. - While I reckon that the group is in right business direction for its MLM strategy of focusing on "small ticket" or "repetitive-consumer" items to boost future sales, we foresee the group’s strategy may take longer time to yield desirable results to cushion the current declining sales in its "big ticket" item. - I will continue to hold HAIO, and accumulate HAIO whenever possible. Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (24 Sept 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1747925 At the time of writing, I owned shares of HAIO. |
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Sep 28 2014, 11:22 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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SKPETRO Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/09/28/sk...s-28-sept-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value: – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY14 (EPS: 0.189) – Fair value 7.31 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – R4Q (EPS: 0.257) – Fair value 9.91 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – Forward: – FY15 (EPS: 0.24) – Fair value 9.25 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – FY16 (EPS: 0.278) – Fair value 10.76 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (4.11): 0.106 – SKPETRO is currently undervalued. - SapuraKencana is the most dynamic company in the oil & gas sector given its transformative developments that have led to a solid order book and earnings visibility. - The strong performance for the quarter (FY15 Q1) was due mainly to the inclusion of tender rig business subsequent to the completion of its acquisition in April 2013, as well as the inclusion of SKEI (SapuraKencana Energy Inc) business subsequent to completion of its acquisition in February 2014. – The group also recognised RM177.8 million gain arising from the acquisition of SKEI. – Excluding the gains arising from acquisition of Newfield of RM177.8m, the normalised earnings came in at RM331.6m. - Orderbook remains healthy at approximately RM26b (62% – OCSS; 19% – drilling; 10% – EJV and 9% – FHUC.), stretching up to year 2024 while tenderbook mimics the orderbook in terms of quantum. More than 20% of the orderbook is expected to be recognised in FY15. - Broken down geographically, 49% of the jobs are from Brazil, 31% from Malaysia, 14% from South East Asia, 5% from Australia and the rest from Africa. Business segment-wise, 68% of the jobs are from the OCSS segment, 8.3% from the FAB & HUC segment and the rest are from the Drilling and Energy Services segment. Tenderbook value is approximately RM25b. - SAKP is still a Shariah-compliant stock but is likely to turn otherwise in the Nov 2014 review. Its conventional debt-to-total assets stood at 48% as of July, above the maximum 33% threshold. It could comply if it refinances MYR5b of its MYR15b loans into Islamic debt but may not make it on time for the Nov review. - I am positive on SapuraKencana for its strong quality and well diversified orderbook, healthy earnings and consistent job wins. Latest Financial – Q2 2015 Financial Report (25 Sept 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1748229 At the time of writing, I owned shares of SKPETRO. |
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Sep 28 2014, 08:03 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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SCIENTX Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/09/28/sc...s-28-sept-2014/ My View:- - Fair value/Market Timing: – 5Y DCF: – Base Scenario: 9.85 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Good Scenario: 11.27 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – Bad Scenario: 8.58 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Ugly Scenario: 7.46 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Even if growth of FCF is 6% in the next 5 years, SCIENTX still worth 7.46. – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY14 (EPS: 0.671) – Fair value 6.15 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 0.671) – Fair value 6.15 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – Forward: – FY15 (EPS: 0.789) – Fair value 7.23 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – FY16 (EPS: 0.891) – Fair value 8.16 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (7.15): 0.78 – SCIENTX is still under valued. - Somehow, I always miss out SCIENTX. I will definitely buy SCIENTX when there is a correction. Latest Financial – Interim FY14 Financial Report (24 Sep 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1746945 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of SCIENTX. |
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Sep 30 2014, 08:19 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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OLDTOWN Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/09/30/ol...s-30-sept-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – 5Y DCF: – Base Scenario (10%): 1.58 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – Good Scenario (14%): 1.79 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Bad Scenario (6%): 1.40 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME) – As OLDTOWN aggresively expending its business, I think its FCF growth will be moderate. – This shows that OLDTOWN is overvalued or fully valued. – Absolute EY% – Trailing: – FY14 (EPS: 0.108) – Fair value 1.92 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 0.107) – Fair value 1.91 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Forward: – FY15 (EPS: 0.118) – Fair value 2.1 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – FY16 (EPS: 0.135) – Fair value 2.41 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.85): 0.104 – This model shows that OLDTOWN is currently undervalued. - In my opinion, downside of OLDTOWN is protected by its FCF, while its growth drivers secure its future earnings. - Nevertheless, I personally dislike OLDTOWN because of its poor service and food quality. Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (27 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1722993 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of OLDTOWN. |
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Sep 30 2014, 09:52 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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CYPARK Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/09/30/cy...s-30-sept-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – Absolute EY% – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.218) – Fair value 2.7 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 0.225) – Fair value 2.79 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.246) – Fair value 3.05 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – FY15 (EPS: 0.306) – Fair value 3.79 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.68): 0.216 - This stock will stay in the Watch List. I may buy CYPARK in near future. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (29 Sept 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1751377 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of CYPARK. |
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Sep 30 2014, 10:01 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QL Analysis:-
https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/09/30/ql...s-30-sept-2014/ My View:- - Fair value – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY14 (EPS: 0.138) – Fair value 3.57 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 0.133) – Fair value 3.44 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Forward: – FY15 (EPS: 0.154) – Fair value 4 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM); Downside price: 2.98 – FY16 (EPS: 0.174) – Fair value 4.51 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM); Downside price: 3.36 – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (3.43): 0.132 - At one glance, QL is undervalued, but the ratio of risk (downside) and reward is almost 1:1 - I won’t buy QL for the time being. Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (21 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1716085 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of QL. |
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Oct 1 2014, 10:23 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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KMLOONG Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/10/01/km...sis-1-oct-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5-Y DCF: – Base Scenario: 4.1 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – Good Scenario: 4.59 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – Bad Scenario: 3.67 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Ugly Scenario: 3.29 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Considering the factors surrounding this sector and this company, I think the assumed FCF growth may not supported by future earnings. I will take the bad/ugly scenario into consideration. – Absolute EY% – Trailing: – FY14 (EPS: 0.198) – Fair value 2.41 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 0.266) – Fair value 3.24 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Forward: – FY15 (EPS: 0.24) – Fair value 2.92 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – FY16 (EPS: 0.228) – Fair value 2.78 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.81): 0.231 - The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. In a worst case scenario, KMLOONG, a net cash company with a low cost of production and an experienced management team would be able to withstand the turbulence and even take up expansion opportunities. Even in the ugly senario, it still worth 3.29. - Nevertheless, In view of lower CPO prices and slower CPO demand towards end-2014, I expect weaker earnings in 2HFY15. FY15/16 EPS by 15%/7% was trimmed after imputing lower CPO price assumptions (CY14/15 at RM2,430/RM2,400 per MT). Also, I do not expect the group to see a sharp growth in FFB output in the near-term because of minimal new matured areas. - I will closely monitor FCPO prices, and consider to buy KMLOONG when only FCPO turns bullish. Latest Financial – Q2 2015 Financial Report (29 Sept 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1751245 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of KMLOONG. |
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Oct 2 2014, 08:58 PM
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Junior Member
204 posts Joined: Jun 2009
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Abric please...
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Oct 13 2014, 11:19 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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TM Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/10/13/tm...is-13-oct-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.283) – Fair value 4.98 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME) – R4Q (EPS: 0.282) – Fair value 4.96 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.251) – Fair value 4.41 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME) – FY15 (EPS: 0.273) – Fair value 4.81 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (6.79): 0.386 - I will place TM in my Research List. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (27 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1721785 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of TM. |
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Oct 14 2014, 10:27 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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LAYHONG Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/10/14/la...is-14-oct-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value: – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY14 (EPS: 0.144) – Fair value 0.98 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME) – R4Q (EPS: 0.28) – Fair value 1.9 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME) – Forward: – FY15 (EPS: 0.161) – Fair value 1.1 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME) – FY16 (EPS: 0.174) – Fair value 1.18 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (3.51): 0.516 - Although LAYHONG is fundamentally sound, the drama of QL’s bid to take over LAYHONG created some uncertainties to this counter. Besides, in my opinion, at 3.51, LAYHONG is extremely over valued. - I will place LAYHONG in the Research List. Latest Financial – Q2 2015 Financial Report (9 Oct 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1760765 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of LAYHONG. |
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Oct 14 2014, 10:28 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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TIMECOM Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/10/14/ti...is-14-oct-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value: – Absolute EY% – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.239) – Fair value 4.32 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – FY15 (EPS: 0.27) – Fair value 4.87 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (4.82): 0.267 - In my opinion, growth drivers of TIMECOM are less attractive. I will place TIMECOM in the Research List. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (22 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1718381 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of TIMECOM. |
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Oct 14 2014, 10:29 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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MAXIS Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/10/14/ma...is-14-oct-2014/ My View:- - Fair Values: – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.235) – Fair value 6.06 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 0.225) – Fair value 5.8 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.266) – Fair value 6.84 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – FY15 (EPS: 0.283) – Fair value 7.28 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (6.49): 0.252 – 5Y DCF: – Good Scenario: 11.36 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – Base Scenario: 9.91 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – Bad Scenario: 8.63 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Ugly Scenario: 7.50 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) - The uncertainties (listed in Risks/Challenges) surrounding Maxis makes Maxis highly susceptible to any revenue and/or earnings disappointment. - I will place MAXIS in the Watch List. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (22 Jul 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1690861 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of MAXIS. |
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Oct 14 2014, 10:36 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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YTLPOWR Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/10/14/yt...is-14-oct-2014/ My View:- - I completed this analysis few months ago. This analysis is based on FY14 Q3 results. - Fair Value: – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.147) – Fair value 1.81 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 0.159) – Fair value 1.95 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.14) – Fair value 1.72 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – FY15 (EPS: 0.146) – Fair value 1.79 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.58): 0.129 - I will place YTLPOWR in the Research List. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (20 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1627689 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of YTLPOWR. |
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Oct 15 2014, 04:25 PM
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Senior Member
16,872 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Sep 28 2014, 08:03 PM) SCIENTX Analysis:- Correction come already...catching the falling knife? https://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/09/28/sc...s-28-sept-2014/ My View:- - Fair value/Market Timing: – 5Y DCF: – Base Scenario: 9.85 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Good Scenario: 11.27 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – Bad Scenario: 8.58 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Ugly Scenario: 7.46 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Even if growth of FCF is 6% in the next 5 years, SCIENTX still worth 7.46. – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY14 (EPS: 0.671) – Fair value 6.15 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 0.671) – Fair value 6.15 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – Forward: – FY15 (EPS: 0.789) – Fair value 7.23 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – FY16 (EPS: 0.891) – Fair value 8.16 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (7.15): 0.78 – SCIENTX is still under valued. - Somehow, I always miss out SCIENTX. I will definitely buy SCIENTX when there is a correction. Latest Financial – Interim FY14 Financial Report (24 Sep 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1746945 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of SCIENTX. |
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Oct 15 2014, 04:39 PM
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Senior Member
2,429 posts Joined: Jul 2007
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what's the fair value for SCIENTX?
QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Oct 15 2014, 04:25 PM) Correction come already...catching the falling knife? |
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Oct 15 2014, 04:47 PM
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Senior Member
16,872 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(jutamind @ Oct 15 2014, 04:39 PM) what's the fair value for SCIENTX? ANALysts say at least 7.70 |
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Oct 15 2014, 07:40 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(jutamind @ Oct 15 2014, 04:39 PM) what's the fair value for SCIENTX? Bloody hell, now a lot of good counters look very attractive. I don't know what to do already....I am going through the stocks in my list again. I sold off few counters to take profit as I also taking this opportunity to restructure my portfolio a bit. |
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Oct 15 2014, 07:58 PM
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Senior Member
2,429 posts Joined: Jul 2007
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Which stocks you are targeting? Mins to share?
QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Oct 15 2014, 07:40 PM) Bloody hell, now a lot of good counters look very attractive. I don't know what to do already.... I am going through the stocks in my list again. I sold off few counters to take profit as I also taking this opportunity to restructure my portfolio a bit. |
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Oct 15 2014, 07:59 PM
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Senior Member
2,429 posts Joined: Jul 2007
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Which stocks you are targeting? Mins to share?
QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Oct 15 2014, 07:40 PM) Bloody hell, now a lot of good counters look very attractive. I don't know what to do already.... I am going through the stocks in my list again. I sold off few counters to take profit as I also taking this opportunity to restructure my portfolio a bit. |
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Oct 16 2014, 04:20 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/10/16/cr...-from-75-to-80/
In scrutinizing the following chart, I think the possibility of crude oil prices stabilizing from 75 to 80 is very high. Moreover, based on history, Crude Oil prices tend to rebound when it touched the said support zone.  Besides, as we all know, decline of oil prices also impact the performance of oil exploration/production and services companies. Here, I posted two ETF charts: “XOP – SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explor & Product” and “OIH – Market Vectors Oil Services ETF”. •XOP – The S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry Index represents the oil and gas exploration and production sub-industry portion of the S&P Total Markets Index. The S&P TMI tracks all the U.S. common stocks listed on the NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ National Market and NASDAQ Small Cap exchanges. The Oil & Gas Exploration Index is an equal weighted market cap index •OIH – The Index is a rules based index intended to track the overall performance of 25 of the largest U.S. listed, publicly traded oil service companies. Both charts show that both indexes approaching its respective support zone. So, in theory, the indexes may stabilizing in the zone. Of course, I don’t eliminate the possibility of breaking below the support zone if the oil prices continue to decline.   OIH 16102014 |
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Oct 16 2014, 04:41 PM
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Senior Member
669 posts Joined: Jan 2005 From: Kandang Lembu, KL
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do you think it's good time to get in for skpetro
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Oct 16 2014, 10:10 PM
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Senior Member
984 posts Joined: Nov 2008
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QUOTE(repusez @ Oct 16 2014, 04:41 PM) do you think it's good time to get in for skpetro The USA for the first time in decades would be self sufficient in crude oil in 3 years time. Now O & G stocks are already bearish. Policies may change in the Middle East. Russia would be affected...... |
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Oct 17 2014, 09:45 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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BJFOOD Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/10/17/bj...is-17-oct-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value: – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY14 (EPS: 0.086) – Fair value 1.57 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME) – R4Q (EPS: 0.087) – Fair value 1.58 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME) – Forward: – FY15 (EPS: 0.101) – Fair value 1.85 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME) – FY16 (EPS: 0.16) – Fair value 2.93 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.75): 0.16 - The valuation is not attractive, and the current price already factored in the future growth Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (15 Sep 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1740717 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of BJFOOD. |
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Oct 19 2014, 06:28 PM
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Junior Member
115 posts Joined: Jan 2012
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QUOTE(lcchong76 @ Oct 17 2014, 09:45 PM) BJFOOD Analysis:- LCCHONG, may I know the appropriate way to convert a cash flow statement in annual report using direct method to indirect method for the purpose of financial projection?http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/10/17/bj...is-17-oct-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value: – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY14 (EPS: 0.086) – Fair value 1.57 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME) – R4Q (EPS: 0.087) – Fair value 1.58 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME) – Forward: – FY15 (EPS: 0.101) – Fair value 1.85 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME) – FY16 (EPS: 0.16) – Fair value 2.93 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.75): 0.16 - The valuation is not attractive, and the current price already factored in the future growth Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (15 Sep 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1740717 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of BJFOOD. (unlikely to be done by reconciling manually) |
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Oct 19 2014, 10:44 PM
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Junior Member
8 posts Joined: Oct 2014
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QUOTE(Oracles99 @ Oct 16 2014, 10:10 PM) The USA for the first time in decades would be self sufficient in crude oil in 3 years time. Now O & G stocks are already bearish. Policies may change in the Middle East. Russia would be affected...... may i know where did u get the crude oil info in US can sustain itself for 3 years ? i thought most of the price of crude oil already made in future contract? please share your view.. tq... |
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Oct 19 2014, 10:50 PM
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Senior Member
984 posts Joined: Nov 2008
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QUOTE(investor89 @ Oct 19 2014, 10:44 PM) may i know where did u get the crude oil info in US can sustain itself for 3 years ? i thought most of the price of crude oil already made in future contract? please share your view.. tq... The Edge Financial Daily last week issue. |
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Oct 19 2014, 10:51 PM
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Senior Member
984 posts Joined: Nov 2008
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Not sustain itself for 3 years. It is saying in three years time, the US won't have to import crude oil.
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Oct 19 2014, 10:54 PM
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Junior Member
8 posts Joined: Oct 2014
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QUOTE(Oracles99 @ Oct 19 2014, 10:50 PM) The Edge Financial Daily last week issue. thank you... |
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Oct 22 2014, 01:16 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DIGI Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/10/22/di...is-22-oct-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5Y DCF: – Good Scenario: 6.17 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH) – Base Scenario: 5.35 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – Bad Scenario: 4.62 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME) – Ugly Scenario: 3.97 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME) – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.219) – Fair value 5.64 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 0.26) – Fair value 6.68 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.25) – Fair value 6.43 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – FY15 (EPS: 0.264) – Fair value 6.79 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (5.93): 0.231 – Both models indicate that DIGI is slightly undervalued. - The modernised network has improved the network quality and customer experience scorecard. This is evident with the 89% reduction in customer complaint. - Data monetisation continue to be Digi’s trump card as shown in the strong data revenue growth. - Operating margin also continues to improve as the company efficiently manages its expenses. - Digi’s practise of paying out almost all of its earnings serve as another sweetener to the stock. - I recently accumulated DIGI. I am willing to pay some premium for this stock due to its outstanding performance and defensiveness. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (20 Oct 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1770149 At the time of writing, I owned shares of DIGI. |
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Oct 22 2014, 01:17 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(dontforcemepls @ Oct 19 2014, 06:28 PM) LCCHONG, may I know the appropriate way to convert a cash flow statement in annual report using direct method to indirect method for the purpose of financial projection? It is quite difficult especially changes in working capital.(unlikely to be done by reconciling manually) |
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Oct 22 2014, 05:24 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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BURSA Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/10/22/bu...is-22-oct-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value: – 5Y-DCF: – Good Scenario: 10.10 (Fair value uncertainty: LOW) – Base Scenario: 8.86 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Bad Scenario: 7.76 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH) – Ugly Scenario: 6.79 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.325) – Fair value 9.81 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – R4Q (EPS: 0.323) – Fair value 9.74 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.36) – Fair value 10.86 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – FY15 (EPS: 0.393) – Fair value 11.87 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (7.91): 0.262 - In my opinion, in FY14, the following risks will outweigh the growth drivers – Withdrawal of foreign investors in very large scale. – US QE taper will cause higher volatility in the market. This may cause investors stay out of (or monitor) the equity market. - he increased interest by retail investors, in particular, is a positive sign. Local institutions remain a steady presence in the market, buffering stocks from the worst of the effects of selling by foreign investors. - I remain sanguine on the company’s outlook over the longer term, as a proxy for the country’s growth. Its business model is also fairly resilient. As mentioned above, recurring and other incomes, including interest income, is sufficient to cover some 91% of total operating expenses. - I will continue to hold and accumulate BURSA. Let see how it goes. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (20 Oct 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1770229 At the time of writing, I owned shares of BURSA. |
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Oct 23 2014, 09:31 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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SIME Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/10/23/si...is-23-oct-2014/ My View:- - Fair values/Market Timing: – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY14 (EPS: 0.512) – Fair value 10.84 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – R4Q (EPS: 0.556) – Fair value 11.76 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Forward: – FY15 (EPS: 0.529) – Fair value 11.2 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – FY16 (EPS: 0.589) – Fair value 12.46 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (7.91): 0.374 - The share price driver will be the potential spin off exercise within SIME business divisions which should allow SIME valuation to be rerated higher as it should emerge as pure planter. As it is, it has been reported by media quoting Tan Sri Mohd Bakke Salleh specifying that the listing of its motor unit is set to be executed in 1HCY15 subject to market conditions. - I will continue to hold SIME. Latest Financial – Annual Report 2014 (21 Oct 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1771817 At the time of writing, I owned shares of SIME. |
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Oct 29 2014, 11:22 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DIALOG Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/10/29/di...is-29-oct-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – Absolute EY% valuation: – Trailing: – FY14 (EPS: 0.044) – Fair value 1.53 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 0.044) – Fair value 1.53 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Forward: – FY15 (EPS: 0.056) – Fair value 1.94 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – FY16 (EPS: 0.068) – Fair value 2.34 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.64): 0.047 - Based on the current price, DIALOG is just slightly undervalued. - Construction works for Phase 1A Pengerang CTF has already been completed in 1QCY14. Phase 1B and Phase 1C are expected to be completed in mid-2014 and end-2014. - Phase 2 should be "good-to-go" given that the Final Investment Decision (FID) for Petronas’ RAPID project has been approved. For now, the finalised tank terminal capacity and equity stake is pending. - The Balai RSC has apparently hit first-oil and is due for Extended Well Testing (EWT) program by 1QCY14. – Only expected earnings contributions from FY17, and as such, any project acceleration would be further earnings catalyst for DIALOG. - DIALOG is also banking-in on growth from the upstream services, logistics services – tank terminals and supply base, specialist products and services, E&C, fabrication, plant services and ePayment technology and solutions. - I may continue to accumulate DIALOG. Let see how it goes. Latest Financial – Annual Report 2014 (28 Oct 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1777945 At the time of writing, I owned shares of DIALOG. |
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Oct 29 2014, 11:23 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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GTRONIC Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/10/29/gt...is-29-oct-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value – 3Y DCF – Good Scenario: 5.57 (Fair value uncertainty: LOW) – Base Scenario: 4.92 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Bad Scenario: 4.34 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH) – Ugly Scenario: 3.83 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.19) – Fair value 3.91 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 0.222) – Fair value 4.56 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.236) – Fair value 4.87 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – FY15 (EPS: 0.283) – Fair value 5.82 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (4.24): 0.206 - Shariah status – Globe could be trade at a premium given the ample domestic liquidity and strong participation by domestic institutions. - GTRONIC has been consistently delivering steady earnings growth by keeping pace with market demands. This was shown in its latest quarterly results announcement. With a growing cash pile, the company mostly will continue its attractive dividend payouts. I believe that there is still slight room for the stock to appreciate further with expectation on another solid year ahead in FY15. - The FY15E dividend yield of 6% also looks attractive. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (28 Oct 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1778113 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of GTRONIC. |
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Oct 30 2014, 05:11 AM
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Senior Member
16,872 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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sifu...APM please
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Nov 3 2014, 11:02 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PBBANK Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/03/pb...sis-3-nov-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 1.161) – Fair value 18.56 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 1.196) – Fair value 19.12 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 1.161) – Fair value 18.56 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – FY15 (EPS: 1.245) – Fair value 19.9 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (18.54): 1.16 – Dividend Discount Model – Base Scenario: 20.15 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Good Scenario: 21.44 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Bad Scenario: 18.95 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Ugly Scenario: 17.84 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Residual Income Model (This model is very defensive and sensitive to ROE. I consider the derived price as the bare minimum price) – Base Scenario: 12.22 – Good Scenario: 18.04 – Bad Scenario: 8.73 – Ugly Scenario: 7.36 - In FY14-FY15, intense competition amongst financial institutions for market share as well as the need for higher capital conservation due to the requirements of Basel III capital framework, will continue to put pressure on pricing of products and return on equity. PBBANK growth will be slowing down, and this is proven from the declining ROE in the past 5 years. – Besides, growth in the profit from its retail operations has been subdued at 0.03% due to pressures on margin while its hire purchase segment’s profit for 1HFY14 declined 8.2%yoy to higher impairment allowance and NIM compression. - Growth in retail operations’ profit was modest at 5.0%yoy while that of hire purchase segment declined by 9.6%yoy for 9MFY14. Moving forward, COF pressures are unlikely to abate. This is due to the tight liquidity of the domestic banking sector leading to strong competition for deposits which will consequently raise COFs. Also, loan growth for the Group’s retail operations, HP and SME loans have moderated. - With no near term catalyst,I will continue to hold and monitor PBBANK, but will not accumulate PBBANK at this moment. After holding PBBANK for almost 15 years, the dividend gains covered almost 95% of my cost. I will just let it float with so called "cost free". - For latest Banking sector analysis, please visit http://www.midf.com.my/images/pdf/research...MIDF-011014.pdf Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (23 Oct 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1773293 At the time of writing, I owned shares of PBBANK. |
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Nov 3 2014, 11:02 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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TENAGA Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/03/te...sis-3-nov-2014/ My View:- - Fair value: – Absolute EY% – Trailing: – FY14 (EPS: 1.146) – Fair value 16.57 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – R4Q (EPS: 1.147) – Fair value 16.58 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Forward: – FY15 (EPS: 0.978) – Fair value 14.14 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – FY16 (EPS: 1.052) – Fair value 15.22 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (13.36): 0.924 - The optimistic outlook on electricity demand growth in Malaysia would be a booster to TNB’s revenue going forward: – A higher anticipated electricity sales growth driven mainly by commercial and industrial sectors – The more favourable generation mix by capitalising on the softening coal price - While TNB’s short term earnings may look rosy at this juncture, the implementation of FCPT mechanism remains as TNB’s secular catalyst in order to justify an even higher future valuation as it will definitely provide a greater clarity and stability to TNB’s long term earnings. Nonetheless, no unstinting commitment thus far with regard to the FCPT implementation from the Government. Without the implementation of FCPT mechanism, TNB’s full potential future earnings growth will continue to be restricted or to be risked by the future fluctuation in coal and LNG prices, evidenced by the under recovery of the earlier escalated fuel cost incurred in 1HFY14. - I will continue to hold TENAGA, and may accumulate TENAGA in the future. Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (31 Oct 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1782001 At the time of writing, I owned shares of TENAGA. |
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Nov 4 2014, 09:38 AM
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Senior Member
1,177 posts Joined: Nov 2007
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Just out of curiosity, about how long does it take for you to do one company?
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Nov 8 2014, 11:11 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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GAB Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/08/ga...sis-8-nov-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5-Y DCF: – Good Scenario: 15.70 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Base Scenario: 13.69 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH) – Bad Scenario: 11.90 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – Ugly Scenario: 10.31 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME) – Absolute EY% Valuation: – Trailing: – FY14 (EPS: 0.656) – Fair value 14.02 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – R4Q (EPS: 0.656) – Fair value 14.02 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Forward: – FY15 (EPS: 0.666) – Fair value 14.23 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – FY16 (EPS: 0.703) – Fair value 15.02 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (13.04): 0.61 - At the current price, fair value uncertainty for both models are from MEDIUM to HIGH. - The dividend return spread between GAB and CARLSBG vs the 10-year MGS yield has narrowed to only 30-40bpts vs the historical 10-year average of 280-290bpts. (Source: RHB) - GAB’s focus on FY15 would be on better cost management by enhancing its efficiency and capability, while the product strategy would see better innovation with more quality new addition to its product portfolio. (Aug 2014) – In FY15, GAB plans to manage its cost more prudently by improving operational efficiency. Besides, the Group also expects to increase its portfolio by introducing more new products through innovation. New products launched in FY14, including Kirin Ichiban, the best-selling super premium brand in Japan and Smirnoff Ice, the world number 1 RTD brand which received good response, which was reflected in 4Q14 sales growth of 10.8% QoQ. Meanwhile, GAB would still be counting on its core brands, namely Heineken, Tiger and Guinness moving forward in sustaining the sales volume. Although GAB did not reveal the sales figure of the brands, we gathered that Heineken recorded the best sales growth among the core brands, followed by Tiger and Guinness in FY14. - GAB expects the Malt Liquor Market (MLM) moving forward to remain competitive and challenging, in view of the unfair competition from contraband beers, of which the sales price per unit is lower than the excise duty alone imposed on GAB’s beers as Malaysia has the second highest excise duties for beer and stout products in the world. Meanwhile, the Group is also concerned on the imminent implementation of the GST in April 2015, which may further dent the consumer sentiment and thus discretionary spending. - 2014/15 will be a challenging year for brewers due to competition from contrabrand beers and as consumer spending dwindles. - In my opinion, there is still some downside risk even though the share prices of both stocks have fallen sharply from last year’s peaks (down 30-45%). 11.60 – 13.00 is a good support zone, from fundamental and technical aspect. Chances of GAB dropping below this zone is low. - If GAB manage to achieve growth in FY15, that means GAB have managed the [impact of] GST and played the market share game well. If that happens, GAB will be good to go. - GAB will not make any profit out of the GST, but they need to get the margins right for the distributors and they need to recommend the distributor price. However, they cannot set pricing in the whole tier system. Latest Financial – Annual Report 2014 (06 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1786801 At the time of writing, I owned shares of GAB. |
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Nov 8 2014, 11:13 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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QUOTE(wankongyew @ Nov 4 2014, 09:38 AM) Just out of curiosity, about how long does it take for you to do one company? New company - 3-5 hours, mainly spend more time in studying growth drivers and risksExisting company - 30-45 minutes |
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Nov 9 2014, 07:17 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PCHEM Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/09/pc...sis-9-nov-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5-Y DCF: – Good Scenario – 6.89 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Base Scenario – 6.16 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Bad Scenario – 5.51 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Ugly Scenario – 4.93 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.393) – Fair value 7.05 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – R4Q (EPS: 0.302) – Fair value 5.41 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.378) – Fair value 6.78 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – FY15 (EPS: 0.42) – Fair value 7.52 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (5.89): 0.329 - I do not expect that earnings in FY14 will match that of FY13 despite the end of major turnaround activities. There will be other smaller planned maintenance exercise which will not severely impact overall group earnings. However, I think that this is a short term problem. In long term, growth drivers of PCHEM are still intact. - Management guided that 2015 will possibly see even tougher operating environment coupled with challenging product prices. However, management is confident that the production volume could increase in 2015 due to the various proactive measures planned to ensure minimal feedstock interruptions, plant stoppages and to ensure optimum plant reliability. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (6 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1786901 At the time of writing, my family member owned shares of PCHEM. |
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Nov 10 2014, 09:05 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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PETGAS Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/10/pe...is-10-nov-2014/ My View:- - Fair value – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.734) – Fair value 22.08 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 0.842) – Fair value 25.31 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.869) – Fair value 26.12 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – FY15 (EPS: 0.912) – Fair value 27.41 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (22): 0.732 - However, based on its decline rate at -2%, PETGAS still worth RM29-34 based on 5-Y projection. - Upside room of this stock is slightly limited due to a lack of fresh catalysts (the Pengerang regasification terminal will only come onstream at the end of the decade). - Valuations may not very compelling, but not bad. PETGAS still appeals to funds seeking earnings stability. - I will continue to hold PETGAS. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (4 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1785353 At the time of writing, I owned shares of PETGAS. |
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Nov 12 2014, 09:24 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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On this Saturday, I will do a workshop for Wealth Creation Code. Title of the workshop is Investment Analysis on the F&B Industry. If you interested to join this event, please drop an email to wealthcreationcode@gmail.com.
 This post has been edited by lcchong76: Nov 12 2014, 09:29 PM |
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Nov 16 2014, 11:11 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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SPRITZR Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/16/sp...is-16-nov-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 3-Y DCF: – Base Scenario – 3.18 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – Good Scenario – 3.51 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – Bad Scenario – 2.87 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – Ugly Scenario – 2.59 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY14 (EPS: 0.162) – Fair value 2.1 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 0.17) – Fair value 2.19 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Forward: – FY15 (EPS: 0.188) – Fair value 2.43 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – FY16 (EPS: 0.196) – Fair value 2.53 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.06): 0.16 - In my opinion, SPRITZR is still undervalued in long term. Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (14 Oct 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1764537 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of SPRITZR. |
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Nov 16 2014, 11:44 AM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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F&N Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/16/fn...is-16-nov-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value: – 5-Y DCF: – Base Scenario – 16.96 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Good Scenario – 19.32 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Bad Scenario – 14.87 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Ugly Scenario – 13.01 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.717) – Fair value 16.77 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 0.76) – Fair value 17.77 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.714) – Fair value 16.71 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – FY15 (EPS: 0.785) – Fair value 18.37 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (16.04): 0.686 - This company is stable, but hardly to expect high growth in long term. May be a good stock to accumulate during economy recession. - I am also concern about F&N move into property development. - Besides, the valuation is not really attractive. Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (6 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1787513 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of F&N. |
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Nov 16 2014, 01:17 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DLADY Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/16/dl...is-16-nov-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value: – 5-Y DCF: – Base Scenario – 56.85 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW) – Good Scenario – 64.97 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Bad Scenario – 49.62 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Ugly Scenario – 43.19 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – Absolute EY%: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 2.16) – Fair value 46.81 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 1.906) – Fair value 41.3 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 1.756) – Fair value 38.04 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – FY15 (EPS: 2.001) – Fair value 43.35 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (46.62): 2.152 - I am positive with DLADY’s future: – Its solid fundamentals and strong branding position – Aggressive marketing and promotional activities – Robust demand of diary product in the long-term as Malaysia’s population is projected to reach 38 million people by 2040 from 30 million currently. Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (6 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1720301 At the time of writing, my family member owned shares of DLADY. |
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Nov 17 2014, 09:59 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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GAB Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/17/ga...is-17-nov-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – 5-Y DCF: – Good Scenario: 15.70 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Base Scenario: 13.69 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH) – Bad Scenario: 11.90 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – Ugly Scenario: 10.31 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME) – Absolute EY% Valuation: – Trailing: – FY14 (EPS: 0.656) – Fair value 14.02 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – R4Q (EPS: 0.673) – Fair value 14.37 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Forward: – FY15 (EPS: 0.666) – Fair value 14.22 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – FY16 (EPS: 0.697) – Fair value 14.88 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (13.2): 0.618 - At the current price, fair value uncertainty for both models are from MEDIUM to HIGH. GAB is still slightly undervalued. - The dividend return spread between GAB and CARLSBG vs the 10-year MGS yield has narrowed to only 30-40bpts vs the historical 10-year average of 280-290bpts. (Source: RHB) - GAB’s focus on FY15 would be on better cost management by enhancing its efficiency and capability, while the product strategy would see better innovation with more quality new addition to its product portfolio. (Aug 2014) – In FY15, GAB plans to manage its cost more prudently by improving operational efficiency. Besides, the Group also expects to increase its portfolio by introducing more new products through innovation. New products launched in FY14, including Kirin Ichiban, the best-selling super premium brand in Japan and Smirnoff Ice, the world number 1 RTD brand which received good response, which was reflected in 4Q14 sales growth of 10.8% QoQ. Meanwhile, GAB would still be counting on its core brands, namely Heineken, Tiger and Guinness moving forward in sustaining the sales volume. Although GAB did not reveal the sales figure of the brands, we gathered that Heineken recorded the best sales growth among the core brands, followed by Tiger and Guinness in FY14. - GAB expects the Malt Liquor Market (MLM) moving forward to remain competitive and challenging, in view of the unfair competition from contraband beers, of which the sales price per unit is lower than the excise duty alone imposed on GAB’s beers as Malaysia has the second highest excise duties for beer and stout products in the world. Meanwhile, the Group is also concerned on the imminent implementation of the GST in April 2015, which may further dent the consumer sentiment and thus discretionary spending. - 2014/15 will be a challenging year for brewers due to competition from contrabrand beers and as consumer spending dwindles. - In my opinion, there is still some downside risk even though the share prices of both stocks have fallen sharply from last year’s peaks (down 30-45%). 11.60 – 13.00 is a good support zone, from fundamental and technical aspect. Chances of GAB dropping below this zone is low. - If GAB manage to achieve growth in FY15, that means GAB have managed the [impact of] GST and played the market share game well. If that happens, GAB will be good to go. - GAB will not make any profit out of the GST, but they need to get the margins right for the distributors and they need to recommend the distributor price. However, they cannot set pricing in the whole tier system. Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (14 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1794305 At the time of writing, my family member owned shares of GAB. |
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Nov 17 2014, 10:01 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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Nov 17 2014, 10:20 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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GASMSIA Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/17/ga...is-17-nov-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value: - Absolute EY%: - Trailing: - FY13 (EPS: 0.134) – Fair value 3.51 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) - R4Q (EPS: 0.144) – Fair value 3.77 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) - Forward: - FY14 (EPS: 0.148) – Fair value 3.89 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) - FY15 (EPS: 0.16) – Fair value 4.19 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) - EPS applied to reach the current stock price (3.48): 0.132 - Volume growth in 2015 requires further 1) price hikes or 2) deferment of the reduction in regulated gas quota (from 382 to 300mmscfd) for GMB to preserve spreads. These events require approval from the Energy Commission and/or PETRONAS. There are substantial regulatory risks involved. - GASMSIA is typical a defensive stock, but current dividend yield is 3.8%. Besides, GASMSIA is just slightly undervalued. Looking at my current portfolio, I am keen to buy GASMSIA, but I don’t want to over-expose to the O&G industry. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (12 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1792277 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of GASMSIA. |
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Nov 18 2014, 10:34 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DELEUM Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/18/de...is-18-nov-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value – Absolute EY% Valuation: – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.124) – Fair value 1.22 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 0.143) – Fair value 1.41 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.142) – Fair value 1.4 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH) – FY15 (EPS: 0.171) – Fair value 1.69 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.69): 0.171 - The long term outlook looks bright for Deleum, with a RM3.5bn orderbook lasting up to 7 years and 2 major contracts commencing in FY14. - The slump of brent crude oil futures is having an effect on the level of activities of the O&G producers and contractors in Malaysia. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (17 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1795733 At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DELEUM. |
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Nov 19 2014, 09:41 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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DIALOG Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/19/di...is-19-nov-2014/ My View:- - Fair values: – Absolute EY% valuation: – Trailing: – FY14 (EPS: 0.044) – Fair value 1.53 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 0.044) – Fair value 1.54 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – Forward: – FY15 (EPS: 0.047) – Fair value 1.63 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – FY16 (EPS: 0.051) – Fair value 1.77 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.5): 0.043 - Based on the current price, DIALOG is just slightly undervalued. - The group is bullish on the prospects of Pengerang as it expects the demand for storage facilities to increase. Management further noted that construction of Phase 1C, which will provide storage for crude oils, is on schedule and due for mechanical completion by December 2014. - DIALOG is also banking-in on growth from the upstream services, logistics services – tank terminals and supply base, specialist products and services, E&C, fabrication, plant services and ePayment technology and solutions. Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (18 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1797329 At the time of writing, I owned shares of DIALOG. |
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Nov 20 2014, 02:38 PM
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Junior Member
464 posts Joined: Jun 2011
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AIRASIA Analysis:-
http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/20/ai...is-20-nov-2014/ My View:- - Fair Value – Absolute EY% Valuation – Trailing: – FY13 (EPS: 0.13) – Fair value 1.99 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – R4Q (EPS: 0.272) – Fair value 4.16 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – Forward: – FY14 (EPS: 0.177) – Fair value 2.7 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH) – FY15 (EPS: 0.268) – Fair value 4.08 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM) – EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.44): 0.16 - I take the view that the domestic aviation sector has seen its worst and are now on a recovery phase with competition intensity lessening and lower fuel price going forward - Yields are at an inflection point. With MAS restructuring and the likelihood of its 20-30% capacity cut next year, the upward airfare pricing rationalisation is expected to kick in on a stronger note then. - TAA to turnaround in 4Q14. Looking forward, management expects a more rationale market as competitors have been reducing capacity in line with AirAsia to optimize profit levels in Malaysia. In Thailand, management expects TAA to return to profit in 4Q14 and will continue adding capacity in 2015. In Indonesia, IAA is expected to be profitable as it will continue be focusing on cost reduction exercise. - Net increase of 5 aircraft in 2015. Of the 13 new aircraft scheduled for delivery in 2015, AirAsia will defer 4 aircraft deliveries and swap to NEO. Also, it will put 4 aircraft to the market for sale. With the balance of 5 new aircraft, one will be allocated for MAA’s operations and 4 will be allocated for TAA’s operations in 2015. - Fuel cost trends are improving with even lower spot jet fuel price in 4Q14 and as Airasia works off its remaining fuel hedges by year end. For FY15, only 12% of requirement is hedged, which means the full benefit of cheaper jet fuel should trickle in more significantly in 1Q15. Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (20 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1798989 At the time of writing, I owned shares of AIRASIA. |
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