good analysis. thumbs up to TS!

TS,
are you familiar with RNAV and SOTP valuation for property development stocks? have you done any fundamental analysis on these stocks?

SUNWAY Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/21/su...is-21-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value:
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.3) – Fair value 3.25 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.91) – Fair value 9.86 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.274) – Fair value 2.97 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.299) – Fair value 3.24 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (3.27): 0.302
- Moreover, Sunway’s integrated construction-property business model should give them an edge in terms of execution
- 9M14 locked-in property sales of MYR951m (accounting for just Sunway’s effective stake in some JVs) met 73% of its MYR1.3b internal target for 2014. Unbilled sales were MYR2.1b at end-Sep 2014.
- Sunway’s construction division has, YTD, secured MYR881m worth of works – all internal. This has lifted its outstanding order book to MYR3.3b at end-Sep 2014 (67% external). Management maintains its MYR2.5b job win target for FY14 (including internal construction contracts).

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (18 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1797693

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of SUNWAY.

I know the concept of RNAV and SOTP but I don't practice them. So far, I only invest and trade SUNWAY.

PADINI Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/21/pa...is-21-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.138) – Fair value 1.84 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.138) – Fair value 1.84 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– Forward:
– FY15 (EPS: 0.158) – Fair value 2.11 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– FY16 (EPS: 0.173) – Fair value 2.31 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.73): 0.13
- In my opinion, at 1.73, I think PADINI valuation is attractive due to
i) attractive dividend yield of 8%
ii) commendable top line growth backed by aggressive expansion
iii) BO stores targeting the value-for-money segment which will do well in current economic environment
iv) highly experienced management team with a strong local retail market knowledge
v) Expected to regain its Shariah compliant status in November 2014 – It had addressed the issue by reallocating a portion of its cash into Islamic instruments in order to be in compliant with the requirement of the SC’s List.
- For recent sector analysis, please read http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2014/03...ly-15032014.pdf

Latest Financial – Annual Report 2014 (27 Aug 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1799353

At the time of writing, I owned shares of PADINI.


This post has been edited by lcchong76: Nov 21 2014, 10:19 PM

WILLOW Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/22/wi...is-22-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– 5-Y DCF:
– Good Scenario: 1.23 (Fair value uncertainty: LOW)
– Base Scenario: 1.09 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Bad Scenario: 0.97 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Ugly Scenario: 0.86 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.08) – Fair value 0.73 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.075) – Fair value 0.69 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.075) – Fair value 0.7 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.082) – Fair value 0.76 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (0.81): 0.088
- I think the current price already factored in the future earnings. On the other hand, looking at its cash flow growth, WILLOW is still undervalued in long term (5 years).

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (19 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1798629

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of WILLOW.

VITROX Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/23/vi...is-23-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value:
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.104) – Fair value 1.73 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.175) – Fair value 2.91 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.18) – Fair value 3 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.196) – Fair value 3.26 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.61): 0.157
– At 2.61, the market assumed EPS 0.157. 0.157 is achievable based on the current outstanding booking, but this also means the current price already factored in its superb trajectory growth.
– VITROX is slightly undervalued.
- I believe that FY14 and FY15 will be a growth year for VITROX because of the recovery of global semiconductor industry and improving US, Japan and European markets.
- I still sees a lot of growth in Vitrox – the catalysts from Agilent’s exit in 2016 and competitive products should help it compete to get individual orders. But with the trend moving towards a single supplier, which provides the entire array of testing equipment that seamlessly talk to each other, Vitrox is currently being left behind. A substantial change in its internal R&D activity to innovate or potential acquisitions with talents or acquisitions with new product offerings to complement its existing portfolio, are the only ways for Vitrox to grow in the longer term.
- Although SEMI’s Sept preliminary semiconductor equipment industry’s book-to-bill ratio recorded the first dip below parity since Sept 2013 to 0.94, we are not overly concern and attributing it to seasonality effect.
- Gartner expects global semiconductor capital spending to be robust in 2015, growing 11.3% yoy to reach USD43.6bn.
- China’s enormous investment (Rmb1tr) into semiconductor industry may lead to potential multi-year high demand of ViTrox’s products.
- Incentives in the form of capital allowance on automation expenditure to encourage automation in the manufacturing sector as tabled in Budget 2015 would also spur demand for its products.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (20 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1799725

At the time of writing, I owned shares of VITROX.

QL Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/23/ql...is-23-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.138) – Fair value 3.55 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.138) – Fair value 3.54 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– Forward:
– FY15 (EPS: 0.155) – Fair value 3.98 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– FY16 (EPS: 0.175) – Fair value 4.49 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (3.46): 0.134
- 1H15 numbers were encouraging with steady growth seen across all division. Stronger 3Q is anticipated with the ILF well supported by the strong egg prices and the Marine Product Manufacturing (MPM) backed by robust demand of the surimi-based products and also further helped by the shrimp farming in Sabah, which is expected to contribute c.RM4m to the division in FY15.

Latest Financial – Q2 2015 Financial Report (20 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1799889

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of QL.

I am not in a position to publish my view about ifca publicly due to my background and connection with ifca.

GENTING Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/25/ge...is-25-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair Value:
– 5Y DCF:
– Good Scenario: 14.16 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Base Scenario: 13.04 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Bad Scenario: 12.04 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Ugly Scenario: 11.16 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.461) – Fair value 10.79 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.433) – Fair value 10.13 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.508) – Fair value 11.89 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.572) – Fair value 13.39 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (9.5): 0.406
– I assume that GENTING future growth will be mediocre, so I take Bad Scenario in DCF.
– In overall, fair value of GENTING range from 10.7 to 12, and the uncertainty is MEDIUM.
- GENTING, as a holding company, should have no problems financing its power division’s capex commitments of US$1bn. The annual cashflow of over RM530m from GENM’s management fees should be sufficient to meet the equity portion of the US$360m, spread over three years. However, if we consider the US$4bn capex for Resorts World Las Vegas (RWLV), the timing of the cashflow could be an issue as the RM7bn cash from the conversion of warrants will be spread out over the next five years. Apparently, work on RWLV will not start until it secures the necessary gaming licence. Analysts expect the licence to be obtained in the next 12-18 months. However, based on the building applications submitted by RWLV on 4 Dec 2013 as found on http://www.clackcountynv.gov, there appears to have been progress. This means construction could start as early as 3Q14.
- GENTING has many new projects on hand, but most of the projects are under development. Besides, it takes long time for GENTING to obtain casino license. And the risk is GENTING may not able to obtain license.
- Higher contributions is expected from RWG and GENUK where driven by normalising VIP win rate to offset lower contributions from GENS due to easing VIP volumes.
- CPO prices still low.
- As of now, I won’t add position to GENTING because there are many uncertainties at this moment.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (21 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1801805

At the time of writing, I owned shares of GENTING.

COASTAL Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/25/co...is-25-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair Value:
– 5-Y DCF:
– Good Scenario: 4.51 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Base Scenario: 4.02 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Bad Scenario: 3.58 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
– Ugly Scenario: 3.19 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– Absolute EY% Valuation:
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.313) – Fair value 2.55 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.388) – Fair value 3.16 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.373) – Fair value 3.04 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.424) – Fair value 3.45 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (3.54): 0.435
– Uncertainty of fair value range MEDIUM to HIGH.
- COASTAL’s business naturally is cyclical, and the shipbuilding division is currently riding the cyclical uptrend. Besides, I think that O&G sector started to slow down.
- Looking at the current stock price (3.54), investors/traders assumed 0.435 EPS which much higher than R4Q and FY15 estimation. I believe that the current stock price already factored in the future earnings.
- I will closely monitor this stock. This is a good stock for trading.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (25 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1801813

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of COASTAL.

EFORCE Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/26/ef...is-26-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– 5-Y DCF:
– Good Scenario: 0.59 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
– Base Scenario: 0.53 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– Bad Scenario: 0.47 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
– Ugly Scenario: 0.43 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.034) – Fair value 0.46 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.039) – Fair value 0.52 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.038) – Fair value 0.52 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.043) – Fair value 0.58 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (0.61): 0.045
- This is another good stock I consider to buy, but I am just not sure about its growth drivers because Malaysia market in stock trading is not as big as US/Europe.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (21 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1802125

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of EFORCE.

How is "invest and trade" different from "own" ? thanks

This post has been edited by wodenus: Nov 26 2014, 11:09 PM

"invest and trade" means I will do so whenever timing is right and opportunity comes.

Own means I am now owning....

UCHITEC Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/27/uc...is-27-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value:
– Absolute EY%
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.106) – Fair value 1.31 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.125) – Fair value 1.54 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– Forward:
– FY15 (EPS: 0.119) – Fair value 1.47 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– FY16 (EPS: 0.118) – Fair value 1.46 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.4): 0.113
– UCHITEC is fully valued.
- UCHITEC has low earning visibility/predictability.
- Although its dividend payout maintains above 80%, its Dividend Yield has been declining from 10% to 7%.
– On one hand, at 1.41, you are still able to enjoy 7% dividend yield
– On the other hand, is it possible for UCHITEC maintain high dividend payout while its net profit and free cash flow has been declining since 2008?
- I do not expect any significant rebound in end demand for premium automatic coffee machines, and this is largely reflected in Uchi’s results. Furthermore with the macro headwinds in Europe, Uchi’s key market, I do not see any near term re-rating catalyst for the stock.
- I will move UCHITEC to the Research List.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (24 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1803309

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of UCHITEC.

DLADY Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/27/dl...is-27-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair Value:
– 10-Y DCF:
– Base Scenario – 68.97 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– Good Scenario – 56.52 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Bad Scenario – 46.33 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– Ugly Scenario – 38.01 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 2.16) – Fair value 46.28 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 1.692) – Fair value 36.25 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 1.759) – Fair value 37.68 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– FY15 (EPS: 1.956) – Fair value 41.9 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (45.4): 2.119
- I am positive with DLADY’s future:
– Its solid fundamentals and strong branding position
– Aggressive marketing and promotional activities
– Robust demand of diary product in the long-term as Malaysia’s population is projected to reach 38 million people by 2040 from 30 million currently.
- Short term concerns:
– The sales volume to continue the downtrend in view of the tough and challenging operating environment with consumer spending being undermined by the high costs of living
– Strong USD/MYR will reduce profit margin of DLADY because of import of raw materials from other countries.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (25 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1804233

At the time of writing, my family member owned shares of DLADY.

PADINI Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/28/pa...is-28-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.138) – Fair value 1.84 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.125) – Fair value 1.67 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– Forward:
– FY15 (EPS: 0.152) – Fair value 2.03 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– FY16 (EPS: 0.169) – Fair value 2.25 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.7): 0.128
- In my opinion, at 1.70, I think PADINI valuation is attractive due to
i) attractive dividend yield of 8%
ii) commendable top line growth backed by aggressive expansion
iii) BO stores targeting the value-for-money segment which will do well in current economic environment
iv) highly experienced management team with a strong local retail market knowledge
- PADINI regained syariah compliant. http://www.theedgemarkets.com/en/node/172093
- For recent sector analysis, please read http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2014/03...ly-15032014.pdf

Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (26 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1806789

At the time of writing, I owned shares of PADINI.

DAYANG Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/28/da...is-28-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value:
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.146) – Fair value 3.09 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.205) – Fair value 4.35 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.239) – Fair value 5.06 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.274) – Fair value 5.8 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.83): 0.134
- Dayang’s current orderbook is approximately RM4.5m which may last through to 2018. The company’s tenderbook is approximately RM1b. Based on its historical tender success rate of 40-50%, we could possibly expect new order replenishment of RM400-500m by the end of this year. The bulk of the new jobs could be engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning of offshore structures. There could potentially be another RM3-4b worth of local offshore EPCC jobs up for grabs in the next two to three years.
- I am generally positive on the current developments and progress of Dayang’s HUC projects. In addition, the company is venturing into the EPCC segment of the value chain. Given the company’s history and reputation of being a conservative and risk-averse company, the EPCC venture will bear fruit in the medium to long term.
- DAYANG is currently undervalued. I am seriously considering to buy DAYANG, but I already have quite a few O&G counters in my portfolio. Thinking.…….

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (26 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1805797

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DAYANG.

OCK Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/28/oc...is-28-nov-2014/

My View:-
•Fair values:
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.05) – Fair value 1.12 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.049) – Fair value 1.1 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.07) – Fair value 1.57 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.09) – Fair value 2.02 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.44): 0.064
•I will revisit OCK after completion of the purchase of an 85% stake in PT Putra Mulia Telecommunication (PMT). My worry is Indonesia government may interfere this acquisition.
•If the acquisition is successful, I will seriously consider to buy this stock.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (27 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1808073

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of OCK.

MAYBANK Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/29/ma...is-29-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.758) – Fair value 11.98 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.724) – Fair value 11.44 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.718) – Fair value 11.34 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.765) – Fair value 12.09 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (9.46): 0.599
– Dividend Discount Model
– Base Scenario: 12.63 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Good Scenario: 12.84 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Bad Scenario: 12.43 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Ugly Scenario: 12.24 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Residual Income Model (This model is very defensive and sensitive to ROE. I consider the derived price as the bare minimum price)
– Base Scenario: 11.00
– Good Scenario: 8.45
– Bad Scenario: 6.97
– Ugly Scenario: 6.03
– Both models pointed that MAYBANK is still undervalued.
- Loan growth accelerated in 3QFY14. Still a strong performance for CFS and Maybank Singapore. Its CI ratio for 9MFY14 would have been better if not for the weaker net income as a result of softer NOII.
- I will continue to hold MAYBANK, and accumulate MAYBANK without increasing my average price too much.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (26 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1806037

At the time of writing, I owned shares of MAYBANK.