MYEG Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/30/my...is-30-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.085) – Fair value 2.35 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.091) – Fair value 2.51 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
– Forward:
– FY15 (EPS: 0.122) – Fair value 3.37 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
– FY16 (EPS: 0.218) – Fair value 6.01 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (4.25): 0.154
- Higher estimation of EPS for FY16 factored in potential CSTM project which will be MyEG’s main earnings growth driver over the next few years
- This is a no-brainer business and fully blessed by our beloved Government.

Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (28 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1809809

At the time of writing, my family member owned shares of MYEG.

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/12/01/we...w-by-danny-tan/

This is an interview done by my friend on WELLCAL.

CARLSBG Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/12/01/ca...sis-1-dec-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values/Market Timing:
– 5-Y DCF:
– Base Scenario: 7.02 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
– Good Scenario: 8.01 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
– Bad Scenario: 6.14 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
– Ugly Scenario: 5.36 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.602) – Fair value 12.34 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.696) – Fair value 14.28 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.636) – Fair value 13.05 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.656) – Fair value 13.47 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (12): 0.585
- Going forward, I remain conservative and skeptical above volume growth in the brewery sector as some reports show that the industry is saturated, coupled with several other external factors such as rising fuel costs, inflation as well as potential exposure to excise duty hike in the near future. However, earnings should be sustainable at current levels.
- CARLSBG is determined to move away from a single star beer product company to become a star beer portfolio company. Over the past 10 years, CARLSBG has been trying to launch a couple of new products into the market. To date, however, its Carlsberg Green Label is still viewed as the group’s only crown jewel. As such, a reshuffle has been undertaken in its top management team over the last 2 to 3 years with the aim of bringing good changes to the group. Besides, it has also appointed a few brand managers to oversee the brand building efforts across a few main products, whereby premium brands are expected to form a larger proportion of its new product portfolio. While efforts are being made to build market share for its premium products, the Carlsberg Green Label will remain as the bread and butter of the group. Whether or not CARLSBG will be able to return to its former glory, it is still too early to tell, but the good efforts warrant CARLSBG a buy/hold call for the long term. There are downside risks if things do not turn out as expected.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (28 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1809709

At the time of writing, I owned shares of CARLSBG.

WELLCAL Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/12/01/we...sis-1-dec-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value
– 5-Y DCF:
– Base Scenario: 1.99 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– Good Scenario: 2.28 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Bad Scenario: 1.73 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– Ugly Scenario: 1.50 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.089) – Fair value 1.35 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.089) – Fair value 1.35 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– Forward:
– FY15 (EPS: 0.1) – Fair value 1.52 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– FY16 (EPS: 0.11) – Fair value 1.67 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.66): 0.109
– Absolute EY% shows that WELLCAL is currently fully valued. In short term, investors already factored in WELLCAL’s growth drivers into the current price.
– On the other hand, 5Y-DCF indicates that WELLCAL is still undervalued in terms of cash flow.
- Despite good fundamental of this company, I am still not comfortable to buy WELLCAL now. Perhaps, I will buy a small lot, and then attend their AGM.

Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (28 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1809597

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of WELLCAL.

SIME Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/12/03/si...sis-3-dec-2014/

My View:-

- For QoQ and YoY results, please refer "A slow start despite upbeat plantation earnings" by MIDF. I agree with their result analysis. (http://www.midf.com.my/images/pdf/research-Report/Equity-Beat/2014/Sime-A%20slow%20start%20despite%20upbeat%20plantation%20earnings-MIDF-011214.pdf)
- Fair values/Market Timing:
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.512) – Fair value 10.67 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.555) – Fair value 11.56 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Forward:
– FY15 (EPS: 0.486) – Fair value 10.13 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– FY16 (EPS: 0.567) – Fair value 11.82 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (9.51): 0.456
- The share price driver will be the potential spin off exercise within SIME business divisions which should allow SIME valuation to be rerated higher as it should emerge as pure planter. As it is, it has been reported by media quoting Tan Sri Mohd Bakke Salleh specifying that the listing of its motor unit is set to be executed in 1HCY15 subject to market conditions.
- Weak commodity prices, volatile FX and slow economic growth in Europe and China – SIME earnings outlook in FY15 will be very challenging.
- Another concern is SIME’s ROIC declined from 11.1% to 9.7%, and FY14 ROIC is below WACC too. This is quite worrying.
– Besides, its CROIC was lower than WACC since 2009.
– SIME is losing its competitive advantage (economic moats)
- I think valuation of SIME is not really attractive now. I will continue to hold SIME.

Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (28 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1808921

At the time of writing, I owned shares of SIME.

ALLIANZ Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/12/05/al...sis-5-dec-2014/

My View:-

- Valuation
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 1.492) – Fair value 11.12 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 1.651) – Fair value 12.3 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 1.643) – Fair value 12.24 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– FY15 (EPS: 1.873) – Fair value 13.95 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (11.9): 1.598
- ALLIANZ’s dividend payout is extremely low, so never expect good dividend from them. Reasons:
– High capital or surplus retained due to nature of industry
– Stringent regulatory requirement to protect policyholders’ interest
– Managing stringent capital buffer to withstand adverse or unfavorable experience
- Unlike LPI (general insurance and financing on leases), ALLIANZ is heavily dependence on single segment: motor insurance; and also dependence on agent for life insurance. ALLIANZ requires high capital to grow distribution capabilities, and fund new business growth.
- Balance float of outstanding shares is very low: 4.20%.
- References:
– http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/rhb/64751.jsp
- I will continue to hold ALLIANZ.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (21 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1801029

At the time of writing, I owned shares of ALLIANZ.

sifu, I dun understand.

LPI can offer good dividend yield, beating FD rate if I remember rightly...why Allianz can't even give a decent 2% yield?

ALLIANZ is very giam

I can’t recall the last time I post chart of FBMKLCI, but today I have mood to do so.
The following charts illustrate my view on potential movement of FBMKLCI. The critical question is what should we do now.
I can share some guidelines:

1. Do your homework and form your own opinion
2. Invest your money wisely on the stocks with wide economic moats.
3. Provided if you invest on stocks with wide economic moats, be sure you have sufficient fund to average down.
4. Select stocks from different sectors with low correlation, but not over diversify.
5. If you don’t have sufficient fund, stay away from market now. You can invest when the market starts to turn bullish again.

Old story, but I hope this is useful to you.




This post has been edited by lcchong76: Dec 9 2014, 09:42 PM

hi sifu,

can recommend any good O&G counters to look at?

Its feels like year end bonus extravaganza to go in now.

from today till year end is BuyBuyBuy

I got some profit from Dialog. Maybe you can take a look.

yeah, senior counter. target locked, thanks

Happy trading and good luck

same to you. second chance to come like this always.

SKPETRO Analysis:-

Excel and Notes - http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/12/10/sk...is-10-dec-2014/

- Fair Value:
  - 3-Y DCF:
    – Base Scenario: 4.21 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
    – Good Scenario: 4.58 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
    – Bad Scenario: 3.87 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
    – Ugly Scenario: 3.56 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
  - Absolute PE:
    - FY14 (EPS: 0.189) – Fair value 2.31 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
    - R4Q (EPS: 0.274) – Fair value 3.34 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
  - Absolute EY%:
    - Trailing:
      - FY14 (EPS: 0.189) – Fair value 7.08 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
      - R4Q (EPS: 0.274) – Fair value 10.25 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
    - Forward:
      - FY15 (EPS: 0.239) – Fair value 8.95 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
      - FY16 (EPS: 0.255) – Fair value 9.57 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
    - EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.45): 0.065
  - I won't use Absolute EY% for this case because the valuation is too optimistic. 3-Y DCF and Absolute PE indicates that SKPETRO is undervalued.
-  I am positive on SapuraKencana for its strong quality and well diversified orderbook, healthy earnings and consistent job wins.
- Many people asked me whether we should buy O&G counters now. I consider SKPETRO as part of my value investing portfolio. In my opinion, I think this is good time to accumulate O&G counters. Remember the Warren Buffett's most famous investment sayings: "Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful."

Latest Financial – Q3 2015 Financial Report (9 Dec 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1820653

At the time of writing, I owned shares of SKPETRO.

SKPETRO – EPF Net Buy/(Sell)

MAGNI Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/12/12/ma...is-12-dec-2014/

My View:-

- Valuation:
- 5 Years Projection:
- 5-Y DCF:
– Base Scenario: 6.62 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– Good Scenario: 7.49 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– Bad Scenario: 5.83 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– Ugly Scenario: 5.14 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
- Absolute PE:
- FY14 (EPS: 0.189) – Fair value 2.31 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
- R4Q (EPS: 0.382) – Fair value 6.09 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
- Short/Medium Term Projection:
- Absolute EY%:
- Trailing:
- FY14 (EPS: 0.387) – Fair value 2.97 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
- R4Q (EPS: 0.382) – Fair value 2.93 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
- Forward:
- FY15 (EPS: 0.378) – Fair value 2.9 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
- FY16 (EPS: 0.431) – Fair value 3.31 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
- EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.58): 0.336
- In long term, I believe that MAGNI is very undervalued. The projected fair values look like very unrealistic, especially because of low share liquidity. On the other hand, even if we cut the fair value 40-50%, MAGNI is still undervalued.
- in short/medium term, MAGNI is slightly undervalued.
- I will place MAGNI in the Watch List, and will continue to study its growth drivers and risks.
- I think MAGNI should improve its share liquidity because it has strong balance sheet.

Latest Financial – Q2 2015 Financial Report (3 Dec 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1814837

At the time of writing, I owned shares of MAGNI.

This post has been edited by lcchong76: Dec 14 2014, 04:49 PM

On this weekend, I will revisit WELLCAL, VITROX, GTRONIC, WILLOW and SCIENTX. I will invest 1-2 counters out of these 6.

For your interest, you can also look into stocks that exporting products to USD and Europe, such as:
1.Furniture counters (HOMERITZ, HEVEA, etc…)
2.Glove counters (TOPGLOV, SUPERMX, etc…)
3.Textile and packaging counters (MAGNI)
4.Consumer discretionary (CSENIC)
5.Electronic (UCHITEC, MPI, etc…)

The above list is not exhaustive. Do your homework, and you will find stocks that benefit from strong USD.

Few key factor you mustn’t forget:
1.Demand of products manufactured by the company must be sustainable during this tough economy condition, and of course, preferably increasing over time.
2.The counters should also benefit from low commodity prices.

Any research on Pet Dagangan?