DIALOG Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/10/29/di...is-29-oct-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– Absolute EY% valuation:
– Trailing:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.044) – Fair value 1.53 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.044) – Fair value 1.53 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– Forward:
– FY15 (EPS: 0.056) – Fair value 1.94 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– FY16 (EPS: 0.068) – Fair value 2.34 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.64): 0.047
- Based on the current price, DIALOG is just slightly undervalued.
- Construction works for Phase 1A Pengerang CTF has already been completed in 1QCY14. Phase 1B and Phase 1C are expected to be completed in mid-2014 and end-2014.
- Phase 2 should be "good-to-go" given that the Final Investment Decision (FID) for Petronas’ RAPID project has been approved. For now, the finalised tank terminal capacity and equity stake is pending.
- The Balai RSC has apparently hit first-oil and is due for Extended Well Testing (EWT) program by 1QCY14.
– Only expected earnings contributions from FY17, and as such, any project acceleration would be further earnings catalyst for DIALOG.
- DIALOG is also banking-in on growth from the upstream services, logistics services – tank terminals and supply base, specialist products and services, E&C, fabrication, plant services and ePayment technology and solutions.
- I may continue to accumulate DIALOG. Let see how it goes.

Latest Financial – Annual Report 2014 (28 Oct 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1777945

At the time of writing, I owned shares of DIALOG.

GTRONIC Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/10/29/gt...is-29-oct-2014/

My View:-

- Fair Value
– 3Y DCF
– Good Scenario: 5.57 (Fair value uncertainty: LOW)
– Base Scenario: 4.92 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Bad Scenario: 4.34 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
– Ugly Scenario: 3.83 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.19) – Fair value 3.91 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.222) – Fair value 4.56 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.236) – Fair value 4.87 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.283) – Fair value 5.82 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (4.24): 0.206
- Shariah status – Globe could be trade at a premium given the ample domestic liquidity and strong participation by domestic institutions.
- GTRONIC has been consistently delivering steady earnings growth by keeping pace with market demands. This was shown in its latest quarterly results announcement. With a growing cash pile, the company mostly will continue its attractive dividend payouts. I believe that there is still slight room for the stock to appreciate further with expectation on another solid year ahead in FY15.
- The FY15E dividend yield of 6% also looks attractive.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (28 Oct 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1778113

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of GTRONIC.

sifu...APM please

PBBANK Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/03/pb...sis-3-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 1.161) – Fair value 18.56 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 1.196) – Fair value 19.12 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 1.161) – Fair value 18.56 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– FY15 (EPS: 1.245) – Fair value 19.9 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (18.54): 1.16
– Dividend Discount Model
– Base Scenario: 20.15 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– Good Scenario: 21.44 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Bad Scenario: 18.95 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– Ugly Scenario: 17.84 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– Residual Income Model (This model is very defensive and sensitive to ROE. I consider the derived price as the bare minimum price)
– Base Scenario: 12.22
– Good Scenario: 18.04
– Bad Scenario: 8.73
– Ugly Scenario: 7.36
- In FY14-FY15, intense competition amongst financial institutions for market share as well as the need for higher capital conservation due to the requirements of Basel III capital framework, will continue to put pressure on pricing of products and return on equity. PBBANK growth will be slowing down, and this is proven from the declining ROE in the past 5 years.
– Besides, growth in the profit from its retail operations has been subdued at 0.03% due to pressures on margin while its hire purchase segment’s profit for 1HFY14 declined 8.2%yoy to higher impairment allowance and NIM compression.
- Growth in retail operations’ profit was modest at 5.0%yoy while that of hire purchase segment declined by 9.6%yoy for 9MFY14. Moving forward, COF pressures are unlikely to abate. This is due to the tight liquidity of the domestic banking sector leading to strong competition for deposits which will consequently raise COFs. Also, loan growth for the Group’s retail operations, HP and SME loans have moderated.
- With no near term catalyst,I will continue to hold and monitor PBBANK, but will not accumulate PBBANK at this moment. After holding PBBANK for almost 15 years, the dividend gains covered almost 95% of my cost. I will just let it float with so called "cost free".
- For latest Banking sector analysis, please visit http://www.midf.com.my/images/pdf/research...MIDF-011014.pdf

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (23 Oct 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1773293

At the time of writing, I owned shares of PBBANK.

TENAGA Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/03/te...sis-3-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value:
– Absolute EY%
– Trailing:
– FY14 (EPS: 1.146) – Fair value 16.57 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– R4Q (EPS: 1.147) – Fair value 16.58 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Forward:
– FY15 (EPS: 0.978) – Fair value 14.14 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– FY16 (EPS: 1.052) – Fair value 15.22 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (13.36): 0.924
- The optimistic outlook on electricity demand growth in Malaysia would be a booster to TNB’s revenue going forward:
– A higher anticipated electricity sales growth driven mainly by commercial and industrial sectors
– The more favourable generation mix by capitalising on the softening coal price
- While TNB’s short term earnings may look rosy at this juncture, the implementation of FCPT mechanism remains as TNB’s secular catalyst in order to justify an even higher future valuation as it will definitely provide a greater clarity and stability to TNB’s long term earnings. Nonetheless, no unstinting commitment thus far with regard to the FCPT implementation from the Government. Without the implementation of FCPT mechanism, TNB’s full potential future earnings growth will continue to be restricted or to be risked by the future fluctuation in coal and LNG prices, evidenced by the under recovery of the earlier escalated fuel cost incurred in 1HFY14.
- I will continue to hold TENAGA, and may accumulate TENAGA in the future.

Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (31 Oct 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1782001

At the time of writing, I owned shares of TENAGA.

Just out of curiosity, about how long does it take for you to do one company?

GAB Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/08/ga...sis-8-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– 5-Y DCF:
– Good Scenario: 15.70 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Base Scenario: 13.69 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
– Bad Scenario: 11.90 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– Ugly Scenario: 10.31 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
– Absolute EY% Valuation:
– Trailing:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.656) – Fair value 14.02 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.656) – Fair value 14.02 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Forward:
– FY15 (EPS: 0.666) – Fair value 14.23 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– FY16 (EPS: 0.703) – Fair value 15.02 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (13.04): 0.61
- At the current price, fair value uncertainty for both models are from MEDIUM to HIGH.
- The dividend return spread between GAB and CARLSBG vs the 10-year MGS yield has narrowed to only 30-40bpts vs the historical 10-year average of 280-290bpts. (Source: RHB)
- GAB’s focus on FY15 would be on better cost management by enhancing its efficiency and capability, while the product strategy would see better innovation with more quality new addition to its product portfolio. (Aug 2014)
– In FY15, GAB plans to manage its cost more prudently by improving operational efficiency. Besides, the Group also expects to increase its portfolio by introducing more new products through innovation. New products launched in FY14, including Kirin Ichiban, the best-selling super premium brand in Japan and Smirnoff Ice, the world number 1 RTD brand which received good response, which was reflected in 4Q14 sales growth of 10.8% QoQ. Meanwhile, GAB would still be counting on its core brands, namely Heineken, Tiger and Guinness moving forward in sustaining the sales volume. Although GAB did not reveal the sales figure of the brands, we gathered that Heineken recorded the best sales growth among the core brands, followed by Tiger and Guinness in FY14.
- GAB expects the Malt Liquor Market (MLM) moving forward to remain competitive and challenging, in view of the unfair competition from contraband beers, of which the sales price per unit is lower than the excise duty alone imposed on GAB’s beers as Malaysia has the second highest excise duties for beer and stout products in the world. Meanwhile, the Group is also concerned on the imminent implementation of the GST in April 2015, which may further dent the consumer sentiment and thus discretionary spending.
- 2014/15 will be a challenging year for brewers due to competition from contrabrand beers and as consumer spending dwindles.
- In my opinion, there is still some downside risk even though the share prices of both stocks have fallen sharply from last year’s peaks (down 30-45%). 11.60 – 13.00 is a good support zone, from fundamental and technical aspect. Chances of GAB dropping below this zone is low.
- If GAB manage to achieve growth in FY15, that means GAB have managed the [impact of] GST and played the market share game well. If that happens, GAB will be good to go.
- GAB will not make any profit out of the GST, but they need to get the margins right for the distributors and they need to recommend the distributor price. However, they cannot set pricing in the whole tier system.

Latest Financial – Annual Report 2014 (06 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1786801

At the time of writing, I owned shares of GAB.

New company - 3-5 hours, mainly spend more time in studying growth drivers and risks
Existing company - 30-45 minutes

PCHEM Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/09/pc...sis-9-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– 5-Y DCF:
– Good Scenario – 6.89 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Base Scenario – 6.16 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– Bad Scenario – 5.51 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– Ugly Scenario – 4.93 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.393) – Fair value 7.05 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.302) – Fair value 5.41 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.378) – Fair value 6.78 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.42) – Fair value 7.52 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (5.89): 0.329
- I do not expect that earnings in FY14 will match that of FY13 despite the end of major turnaround activities. There will be other smaller planned maintenance exercise which will not severely impact overall group earnings. However, I think that this is a short term problem. In long term, growth drivers of PCHEM are still intact.
- Management guided that 2015 will possibly see even tougher operating environment coupled with challenging product prices. However, management is confident that the production volume could increase in 2015 due to the various proactive measures planned to ensure minimal feedstock interruptions, plant stoppages and to ensure optimum plant reliability.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (6 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1786901

At the time of writing, my family member owned shares of PCHEM.

PETGAS Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/10/pe...is-10-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.734) – Fair value 22.08 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.842) – Fair value 25.31 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.869) – Fair value 26.12 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.912) – Fair value 27.41 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (22): 0.732
- However, based on its decline rate at -2%, PETGAS still worth RM29-34 based on 5-Y projection.
- Upside room of this stock is slightly limited due to a lack of fresh catalysts (the Pengerang regasification terminal will only come onstream at the end of the decade).
- Valuations may not very compelling, but not bad. PETGAS still appeals to funds seeking earnings stability.
- I will continue to hold PETGAS.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (4 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1785353

At the time of writing, I owned shares of PETGAS.

On this Saturday, I will do a workshop for Wealth Creation Code. Title of the workshop is Investment Analysis on the F&B Industry. If you interested to join this event, please drop an email to wealthcreationcode@gmail.com.



This post has been edited by lcchong76: Nov 12 2014, 09:29 PM

SPRITZR Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/16/sp...is-16-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– 3-Y DCF:
– Base Scenario – 3.18 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– Good Scenario – 3.51 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– Bad Scenario – 2.87 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– Ugly Scenario – 2.59 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.162) – Fair value 2.1 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.17) – Fair value 2.19 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Forward:
– FY15 (EPS: 0.188) – Fair value 2.43 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– FY16 (EPS: 0.196) – Fair value 2.53 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.06): 0.16
- In my opinion, SPRITZR is still undervalued in long term.

Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (14 Oct 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1764537

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of SPRITZR.

F&N Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/16/fn...is-16-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair Value:
– 5-Y DCF:
– Base Scenario – 16.96 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Good Scenario – 19.32 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– Bad Scenario – 14.87 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– Ugly Scenario – 13.01 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.717) – Fair value 16.77 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.76) – Fair value 17.77 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.714) – Fair value 16.71 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.785) – Fair value 18.37 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (16.04): 0.686
- This company is stable, but hardly to expect high growth in long term. May be a good stock to accumulate during economy recession.
- I am also concern about F&N move into property development.
- Besides, the valuation is not really attractive.

Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (6 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1787513

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of F&N.

DLADY Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/16/dl...is-16-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair Value:
– 5-Y DCF:
– Base Scenario – 56.85 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
– Good Scenario – 64.97 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Bad Scenario – 49.62 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Ugly Scenario – 43.19 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– Absolute EY%:
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 2.16) – Fair value 46.81 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 1.906) – Fair value 41.3 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 1.756) – Fair value 38.04 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– FY15 (EPS: 2.001) – Fair value 43.35 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (46.62): 2.152
- I am positive with DLADY’s future:
– Its solid fundamentals and strong branding position
– Aggressive marketing and promotional activities
– Robust demand of diary product in the long-term as Malaysia’s population is projected to reach 38 million people by 2040 from 30 million currently.

Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (6 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1720301

At the time of writing, my family member owned shares of DLADY.

GAB Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/17/ga...is-17-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– 5-Y DCF:
– Good Scenario: 15.70 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Base Scenario: 13.69 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
– Bad Scenario: 11.90 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– Ugly Scenario: 10.31 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
– Absolute EY% Valuation:
– Trailing:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.656) – Fair value 14.02 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.673) – Fair value 14.37 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Forward:
– FY15 (EPS: 0.666) – Fair value 14.22 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– FY16 (EPS: 0.697) – Fair value 14.88 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (13.2): 0.618
- At the current price, fair value uncertainty for both models are from MEDIUM to HIGH. GAB is still slightly undervalued.
- The dividend return spread between GAB and CARLSBG vs the 10-year MGS yield has narrowed to only 30-40bpts vs the historical 10-year average of 280-290bpts. (Source: RHB)
- GAB’s focus on FY15 would be on better cost management by enhancing its efficiency and capability, while the product strategy would see better innovation with more quality new addition to its product portfolio. (Aug 2014)
– In FY15, GAB plans to manage its cost more prudently by improving operational efficiency. Besides, the Group also expects to increase its portfolio by introducing more new products through innovation. New products launched in FY14, including Kirin Ichiban, the best-selling super premium brand in Japan and Smirnoff Ice, the world number 1 RTD brand which received good response, which was reflected in 4Q14 sales growth of 10.8% QoQ. Meanwhile, GAB would still be counting on its core brands, namely Heineken, Tiger and Guinness moving forward in sustaining the sales volume. Although GAB did not reveal the sales figure of the brands, we gathered that Heineken recorded the best sales growth among the core brands, followed by Tiger and Guinness in FY14.
- GAB expects the Malt Liquor Market (MLM) moving forward to remain competitive and challenging, in view of the unfair competition from contraband beers, of which the sales price per unit is lower than the excise duty alone imposed on GAB’s beers as Malaysia has the second highest excise duties for beer and stout products in the world. Meanwhile, the Group is also concerned on the imminent implementation of the GST in April 2015, which may further dent the consumer sentiment and thus discretionary spending.
- 2014/15 will be a challenging year for brewers due to competition from contrabrand beers and as consumer spending dwindles.
- In my opinion, there is still some downside risk even though the share prices of both stocks have fallen sharply from last year’s peaks (down 30-45%). 11.60 – 13.00 is a good support zone, from fundamental and technical aspect. Chances of GAB dropping below this zone is low.
- If GAB manage to achieve growth in FY15, that means GAB have managed the [impact of] GST and played the market share game well. If that happens, GAB will be good to go.
- GAB will not make any profit out of the GST, but they need to get the margins right for the distributors and they need to recommend the distributor price. However, they cannot set pricing in the whole tier system.

Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (14 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1794305

At the time of writing, my family member owned shares of GAB.

Counters Covered in “Investment Analysis on F&B Companies”

1. SPRITZR vs. PWROOT
2. F&N
3. DLADY
4. KAWAN
5. LONBISC vs. HUPSENG vs. APOLLO vs. COCOLND
6. NESTLE
7. QL
8. LAYHONG
9. LTKM vs. TEOSENG
10. GAB vs. CARLSBG

GASMSIA Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/17/ga...is-17-nov-2014/

My View:-
- Fair Value:
- Absolute EY%:
- Trailing:
- FY13 (EPS: 0.134) – Fair value 3.51 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
- R4Q (EPS: 0.144) – Fair value 3.77 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
- Forward:
- FY14 (EPS: 0.148) – Fair value 3.89 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
- FY15 (EPS: 0.16) – Fair value 4.19 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
- EPS applied to reach the current stock price (3.48): 0.132
- Volume growth in 2015 requires further
1) price hikes or
2) deferment of the reduction in regulated gas quota (from 382 to 300mmscfd) for GMB to preserve spreads.
These events require approval from the Energy Commission and/or PETRONAS. There are substantial regulatory risks involved.
- GASMSIA is typical a defensive stock, but current dividend yield is 3.8%. Besides, GASMSIA is just slightly undervalued. Looking at my current portfolio, I am keen to buy GASMSIA, but I don’t want to over-expose to the O&G industry.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (12 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1792277

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of GASMSIA.

DELEUM Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/18/de...is-18-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair Value
– Absolute EY% Valuation:
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.124) – Fair value 1.22 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.143) – Fair value 1.41 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.142) – Fair value 1.4 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.171) – Fair value 1.69 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.69): 0.171
- The long term outlook looks bright for Deleum, with a RM3.5bn orderbook lasting up to 7 years and 2 major contracts commencing in FY14.
- The slump of brent crude oil futures is having an effect on the level of activities of the O&G producers and contractors in Malaysia.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (17 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1795733

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DELEUM.

DIALOG Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/19/di...is-19-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– Absolute EY% valuation:
– Trailing:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.044) – Fair value 1.53 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.044) – Fair value 1.54 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– Forward:
– FY15 (EPS: 0.047) – Fair value 1.63 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– FY16 (EPS: 0.051) – Fair value 1.77 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.5): 0.043
- Based on the current price, DIALOG is just slightly undervalued.
- The group is bullish on the prospects of Pengerang as it expects the demand for storage facilities to increase. Management further noted that construction of Phase 1C, which will provide storage for crude oils, is on schedule and due for mechanical completion by December 2014.
- DIALOG is also banking-in on growth from the upstream services, logistics services – tank terminals and supply base, specialist products and services, E&C, fabrication, plant services and ePayment technology and solutions.

Latest Financial – Q1 2015 Financial Report (18 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1797329

At the time of writing, I owned shares of DIALOG.

AIRASIA Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/11/20/ai...is-20-nov-2014/

My View:-

- Fair Value
– Absolute EY% Valuation
– Trailing:
– FY13 (EPS: 0.13) – Fair value 1.99 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– R4Q (EPS: 0.272) – Fair value 4.16 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– Forward:
– FY14 (EPS: 0.177) – Fair value 2.7 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
– FY15 (EPS: 0.268) – Fair value 4.08 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
– EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.44): 0.16
- I take the view that the domestic aviation sector has seen its worst and are now on a recovery phase with competition intensity lessening and lower fuel price going forward
- Yields are at an inflection point. With MAS restructuring and the likelihood of its 20-30% capacity cut next year, the upward airfare pricing rationalisation is expected to kick in on a stronger note then.
- TAA to turnaround in 4Q14. Looking forward, management expects a more rationale market as competitors have been reducing capacity in line with AirAsia to optimize profit levels in Malaysia. In Thailand, management expects TAA to return to profit in 4Q14 and will continue adding capacity in 2015. In Indonesia, IAA is expected to be profitable as it will continue be focusing on cost reduction exercise.
- Net increase of 5 aircraft in 2015. Of the 13 new aircraft scheduled for delivery in 2015, AirAsia will defer 4 aircraft deliveries and swap to NEO. Also, it will put 4 aircraft to the market for sale. With the balance of 5 new aircraft, one will be allocated for MAA’s operations and 4 will be allocated for TAA’s operations in 2015.
- Fuel cost trends are improving with even lower spot jet fuel price in 4Q14 and as Airasia works off its remaining fuel hedges by year end. For FY15, only 12% of requirement is hedged, which means the full benefit of cheaper jet fuel should trickle in more significantly in 1Q15.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (20 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1798989

At the time of writing, I owned shares of AIRASIA.