I think UTDPLT is at better position.

DIALOG Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/16/di...is-16-may-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– Absolute EY%: 2.41 – 4.66 (MOS: 20%)
- Based on the current price (3.70 as of 16 May 2014), DIALOG is slightly undervalued. At this price, I have 20% MOS.
- I am considering to accumulate DIALOG.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (15 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1623213

At the time of writing, I owned shares of DIALOG.

dialog in pengerang look big

dialog in pengerang look big

This post has been edited by kimboon: May 16 2014, 03:03 PM

WELLCAL Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/16/we...is-16-may-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value
– 5Y DCF: 1.64 – 1.87 (MOS: 11% – 22%)
– Absolute EY%: 0.85 – 1.52 (MOS: 4.01%)
– WELLCAL is nearly valued, and I think it current price level already factored in its growth drivers.
- WELLCAL has appreciated 60% (during this time, the KLCI was only up 3% while the FBM Small Cap Index rose 19%) and dividend yield has declined to the 5% levels.
- Demand for industrial rubber hoses will continue to see gradual recovery from both the emerging and developed economies, with higher growth rates projected from the emerging markets. In the near term, WELLCAL expects the raw material prices to trend at current levels with possibly further downward inclination. The recent easing of these raw material prices has enabled a more favourable operating environment for sustainable growth in demand and earnings.
- I will wait for correction, such as WELLCAL drops to 1.30.…

Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (16 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1624541

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of WELLCAL.

The price further appreciate, i think i sell at RM30 which highest of 2013 was RM33 and buy back below RM27.

AZRB
MRCB
SUPERMX

OSKPROP Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/20/os...is-20-may-2014/

My View:-

- Fair Value
– 5Y DCF: 3.31 – 3.79 (MOS: 44% – 51%)
– Absolute EY%: Buy below 2.40, Sell above 4.34
– OSKPROP is currently undervalued.
- Based on various published reports and BNM Mar 2014 report, BNM has very high tendency to increase OPR in short future. This will create adverse short-term impact to stock market, especially property sector.
- Despite OSKPROP is undervalued now, I choose to stay out for the time being. I am willing to pay some premium, but I want to be sure about BNM’s future policy.

Latest Financial – Annual Report 2013 (27 Mar 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1578245

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of OSKPROP.

AIRASIA Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/21/ai...is-21-may-2014/

My View:-

- Market Timing
– Absolute EY%: Buy below 3.47, sell above 4.18 (MOS: 44%)
- I believe that FY2014 would be a better year as compared to 2013, with the expectation that yield would recover and its cost savings initiatives would boost earnings.
- On the other hand, MAS and AIRASIA have guided that domestic and intra-ASEAN fares are unlikely to decline further from the already-low levels, but fares are unlikely to rise either, as capacity deployment over the next six months will be kept at present levels and there is no evidence of capacity rationalisation. As the weak 4Q13 fares carry over into 2014, some analysts expect MAA to experience an average 5% underlying yield compression in 2014, leading to a 26% core net profit decline. To make things worse, Thai AirAsia’s profit is likely to shrink and Indonesia AirAsia’s losses expand further this year. Thus, the analysts expect AirAsia’s group core net profit to fall a massive 43% yoy in 2014. The outlook may improve in 2015-16 as the losses are unsustainable for MAS and Malindo. I also conquer with their view.
- Besides, further decline in pax yield and lower contributions from the overseas associates are expected for FY14 and FY15.
- Based on Changes in Sub. S-hldr’s Int. (29B), since Jan 2014, EPF has been heavily buying AIRASIA, and Wellington also stopped net selling AIRASIA. Heavy buy by EPF doesn’t guarantee appreciation of AIRASIA’s stock price, but it provides a very strong support from 2.2 to 2.4.
- AirAsia has told Bursa Malaysia that it is proposing to buy up to 10% of its issued and paid-up share capital at any point in time. The proposed share buyback, if implemented, will enable AirAsia and its subsidiaries to utilise any of its surplus financial resources, which are not immediately required for other uses, to purchase its own shares from the market, the company said. The proposed share buyback is expected to stabilise the price of AirAsia shares and to prevent against speculation of the shares, when undervalued, to enhance investors’ confidence. (27 Feb 2014)
- I have accumulated AIRASIA 3 times in Dec 2013 and Jan 2014 in the range from 2.3 to 2.4, so I won’t accumulate AIRASIA in near term or until it formed a new higher support.

Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (20 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1627693

At the time of writing, I owned shares of AIRASIA.

DELEUM Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/21/de...is-21-may-2014/

My View:-

- Valuation
– 5Y DCF: 7.37 – 8.38 (MOS: 13% – 24%)
– I believe that future competition will be intense and cost of doing business will rise, in particular staff related cost and higher inflationary pressures.
– I think DELEUM’s FCF growth will slow down. Thus, I will take 7.37 as the fair value.
– Absolute EY% – Buy under 2.62, sell above 5.43
– Although this is slightly contradict with the outcome of DCF, it is actually logical. This is because DELEUM has been bullish since early of 2013.
– I believe that the current price already factored in the growth drivers.
– DELEUM is now nearly valued.
- The long term outlook looks bright for Deleum, with a RM3.5bn orderbook lasting up to 7 years and 2 major contracts commencing in FY14.
- I will wait for bigger correction. Let see how it goes.

Latest Financial – Q 2014 Financial Report (21 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1628701

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DELEUM.

AHEALTH Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/22/ah...is-21-may-2014/

My View:-

- Fair Value:
– 5Y DCF: 5.74 – 6.54 (MOS: 16% – 27%)
– Absolute EY%: 3.38 – 4.27 (MOS: -12%)
- In 2013, RM 30 million was spent to acquire and retrofit a 50,000 square feet industrial building to support growing business volumes at Apex Pharma Marketing Pte Ltd in Singapore.
– Thus, FY13 FCF is lower if compare to previous years.
- As a pharmaceutical company, AHEALTH is a defensive company. However, what I dislike is balance float of shares in market is around 15% only. Liquidity of this stock is low.
- I may buy some shares of AHEALTH in the future. I will continue to monitor it.

Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (21 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1628645

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of AHEALTH.

JTIASA Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/22/jt...is-22-may-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value
– Absolute EY%: Buy below 3.35, sell above 6.18 (MOS: 56%)
– Analysts’ forecast JTIASA may be able to achieve 0.12 and 0.22 EPS for FY14 and FY15. However, based on performance of 2 quarters of FY14, the cumulative EPS is 0.04. I am not sure JTIASA can even achieve 0.10 EPS by the end of FY14. So, for absolute EY%, I discounted the analysts’ forecast to 0.10 (FY16) and 0.15 (FY15).
- The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. JTIASA earnings will improve in the next few years.
- In terms of productivity, costs, efficiency and financial health, KMLOONG outplayed JTIASA. JTIASA may have greater potential but KMLOONG’s future prospect is not bad.
– Being a leader of the timber and plywood industry, it has not been showing much profit because they have used the cash from the timber business to plant oil palms. It started planting oil palms in 2002 aggressively and the following tables show the planted area and it’s FFB production.
– The total planted area and the FFB production have been increasing rapidly since 2005. The palms are physically growing and producing more and more fruits every year.
– Their current FFB yield is not optimum because most of the palms are young. Their FFB yield will improve when their immature trees become mature.
- After three quarters in FY14, if compare to last FY results, JTIASA still has 27.6% to catch up. I am not sure whether JTIASA can catch up more than 27% in the last quarter. Chances are slim. On the other hand, JTIASA’s net profit already exceed last year’s net profit.
- I believe JTIASA will continue to bullish.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (21 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1628169

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of JTIASA.

This study is created specifically for educational purposes only where I will use it on a special occasion later. I may not update analysis of this stock in the future.

KLK Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/22/kl...is-22-may-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– EY% – Buy below 15.87, sell above 24.46
– In my opinion, KLK is fully valued.
- The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. KLK earnings will improve in the next few years.
- KLK’s current price is at a premium due to the young age of the group’s oil palm trees. Average age of KLK’s oil palm trees is 11 years old as young trees in Indonesia compensate for the older trees in Sabah.
- In longer term, KLK’s outlook is positive as earnings impact will likely be from FY18 onwards. Note that oil palm trees usually start bearing fruits from the 3rd year onwards and the field preparation work may take up to one year.
- Based on Q2 2014 cumulative results, revenue, net profit and FCF increased 19%, 29%, and 549% respectively by comparing to Q2 2013 cumulative results.
- I believe that KLK is in good position to achieve better result in FY14.

Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (21 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1628097

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of KLK.

VITROX Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/23/vi...is-23-may-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value:
– 5Y DCF: 1.59 – 1.80 (MOS: -25% -> -10%)
– Absolute EY%: Buy below 1.18, sell above 2.24
– VITROX is nearly or fully valued, and its MOS is lower than my MOS (19%)
- I believe that FY14 will be a growth year for VITROX because of the recovery of global semiconductor industry and improving US, Japan and European markets.
- I still sees a lot of growth in Vitrox – the catalysts from Agilent’s exit in 2016 and competitive products should help it compete to get individual orders. But with the trend moving towards a single supplier, which provides the entire array of testing equipment that seamlessly talk to each other, Vitrox is currently being left behind. A substantial change in its internal R&D activity to innovate or potential acquisitions with talents or acquisitions with new product offerings to complement its existing portfolio, are the only ways for Vitrox to grow in the longer term.
- I will hold VITROX. I may sell it if it shows bearish reversal signal.

Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (22 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1630053

At the time of writing, I owned shares of VITROX.

This study is created specifically for educational purposes only where I will use it on a special occasion later. I may not update analysis of this stock in the future.

TSH Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/23/ts...is-23-may-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– EY% – Buy below 2.19, sell above 3.75 (MOS: 11.97%)
– In my opinion, TSH still got a little bit of upside.
- The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner.
- Analysts posted positive outlook on TSH because
a) strong FFB production growth of 13%-15%
b) young age profile of 6-7 years old for the majority of its planted area
- However, due to increasingly impairment costs, I am not sure efficiency of TSH management and operations. Unlike its peers, TSH leverage level is also higher.
- FY14Q1 earnings surged > 100% yoy was attributable to
i. higher crop production
ii. better CPO price
iii. unrealized FX gain of RM16.7m arising from the strengthening of Ringgit and Rupiah against the US Dollar

Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (22 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1629497

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of TSH.

DAYANG Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/24/da...is-24-may-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value:
– Absolute EY%: Buy bellow 3.04, sell above 4.80 (MOS: 25%)
- DAYANG’S longer-term prospects are strong given that c.77% of its RM4b orderbook extends until 2018. It is also a beneficiary of any improvements in associate PERDANA earnings.
- I will consider to buy DAYANG if
– it dropped below 3.3; or
– it formed a strong support.

Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (23 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1631313

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DAYANG.

AXIATA Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/28/ax...is-28-may-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– Absolute EY%:
– Fair value: 7.55
– Buy under 5.64
– I am looking for 23% MOS though.
- AXIATA is currently undervalued at 6.89 (28 May 2014), but the actual MOS is 8.7%
- I expect Celcom’s earnings to remain stable going forward amid rational competition. XL meanwhile will have to absorb Axis’ losses in the initial years post-merger. The potentially value-accretive tower spin-off exercise is not close to being completed. Besides, AXIATA is still highly leveraged. CROIC and ROIC are just stable, but not improving significantly.
- New acquisition activities are expected, such as Viom Networks Ltd in India. Thus, more funding and gearing will be needed.
- As of now, I do not see new growth catalysts for Axiata in the near term. Earnings growth form the group’s smaller segmenst is expected to compensate for the earnings pressure from its two main segments i.e. Celcom and XL. In addition, sizeable exposure to forex also impacted the group’s bottomline.
- I won’t accumulate AXIATA in the near term.

Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (27 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1636321

At the time of writing, I owned shares of AXIATA.

CARLSBG Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/28/ca...is-28-may-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values/Market Timing:
– 10-Y DCF: 12.56 – 15.42 (MOS:4% – 22%)
– Absolute EY%: Buy below 9.99, sell above 12.09 (MOS: -0.09%)
- At the current price (12.1 as of 27 May 2014), CARLSBG is already fully valued or over valued. Besides, MOS derived from all models are not up to my benchmark.
- The dividend return spread between GAB and CARLSBG vs the 10-year MGS yield has narrowed to only 30-40bpts vs the ?historical ?10-year average of 280-290bpts. (Source: RHB)
- Going forward, I remain conservative and skeptical above volume growth in the brewery sector as some reports show that the industry is saturated, coupled with several other external factors such as rising fuel costs, inflation as well as potential exposure to excise duty hike in the near future. However, earnings should be sustainable at current levels.
- 2014 will be a challenging year for brewers due to competition from contrabrand beers and as consumer spending dwindles. Fortunately, this will be partially alleviated by the Visit Malaysia Year 2014 event.
- In my opinion, there is still some downside risk even though the share prices of both stocks have fallen sharply from last year’s peaks (down 30-45%). 10.24 – 11.50 is a good support zone, from technical aspect. Chances of CARLSBG dropping below this zone is low.
- CARLSBG is determined to move away from a single star beer product company to become a star beer portfolio company. Over the past 10 years, CARLSBG has been trying to launch a couple of new products into the market. To date, however, its Carlsberg Green Label is still viewed as the group’s only crown jewel. As such, a reshuffle has been undertaken in its top management team over the last 2 to 3 years with the aim of bringing good changes to the group. Besides, it has also appointed a few brand managers to oversee the brand building efforts across a few main products, whereby premium brands are expected to form a larger proportion of its new product portfolio. While efforts are being made to build market share for its premium products, the Carlsberg Green Label will remain as the bread and butter of the group. Whether or not CARLSBG will be able to return to its former glory, it is still too early to tell, but the good efforts warrant CARLSBG a buy/hold call for the long term. There are downside risks if things do not turn out as expected.
- I may accumulate CARLSBG if it dropped below 11.00.

Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (27 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1635465

At the time of writing, I owned shares of CARLSBG.

Axiata's quarterly result shows gains mainly from exchange rate translation. Celcom experienced a drop in revenue greater than Digi & Maxis in line with the mature local market.

VITROX Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/29/vi...is-29-may-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value:
– 5Y DCF: 1.75 – 1.98 (MOS: -16% -> -2%)
– As of now, I will not use DCF because VITROX’s capex was rather high due to R&D
– Absolute EY%: Buy below 2.54, sell above 3.03
– VITROX is under valued
- I believe that FY14 will be a growth year for VITROX because of the recovery of global semiconductor industry and improving US, Japan and European markets.
- I still sees a lot of growth in Vitrox – the catalysts from Agilent’s exit in 2016 and competitive products should help it compete to get individual orders. But with the trend moving towards a single supplier, which provides the entire array of testing equipment that seamlessly talk to each other, Vitrox is currently being left behind. A substantial change in its internal R&D activity to innovate or potential acquisitions with talents or acquisitions with new product offerings to complement its existing portfolio, are the only ways for Vitrox to grow in the longer term.
- I will hold VITROX. I may sell it if it shows bearish reversal signal, or may accumulate it if its uptrend continues.

Latest Financial – Annual Report 2014 (28 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1636725

At the time of writing, I owned shares of VITROX.