chong, do you still cover ccmdbio? any update for this stock?

DELEUM Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/06/de...sis-6-may-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value
– 5Y DCF: 5.71 – 6.50 (MOS: -3% – 9%)
– Absolute EY% – Buy under 2.62, sell above 5.43
– DELEUM is now fully valued. This is mainly due to the recent bonus issue.
- The long term outlook looks bright for Deleum, with a RM3.5bn orderbook lasting up to 7 years and 2 major contracts commencing in FY14.
- I will wait for bigger correction. Let see how it goes.

Latest Financial – Annual Report 2014 (5 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1613393

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DELEUM.

No longer cover this counter.

AXIATA Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/07/ax...sis-7-may-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
- Absolute EY%: Buy below 6.67, sell above 8.17 (MOS: 17.60%)
- I am looking for 23% MOS though.
- AXIATA is currently undervalued at 6.73 (6 May 2014)
- I expect Celcom’s earnings to remain stable going forward amid rational competition. XL meanwhile will have to absorb Axis’ losses in the initial years post-merger. The potentially value-accretive tower spin-off exercise is not close to being completed. Besides, AXIATA is still highly leveraged. CROIC and ROIC are just stable, but not improving significantly.
- New acquisition activities are expected, such as Viom Networks Ltd in India. Thus, more funding and gearing will be needed.
- As of now, I do not see new growth catalysts for Axiata in the near term. I won’t accumulate AXIATA in the near term.

Latest Financial – Annual Report 2013 (6 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1614929

At the time of writing, I owned shares of AXIATA.

Axiata under value due to growth being stagnant?

lcchong said it all; "XL meanwhile will have to absorb Axis’ losses in the initial years post-merger". Its overseas subsidiary's profit came mainly from XL in Indonesia. Even in Indonesia, the market is fast maturing which means little growth. Besides taking over a loss making company means that the profit made in Indonesia would be offset by losses from the newly acquired company.

You are right!

PETGAS Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/07/pe...sis-7-may-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value
– Absolute EY%: 17.13 – 20.16 (MOS: -15.86%)
- PETGAS is current fully valued. MOS for PETGAS should be 17%.
- I do not expect the stock to move up further from the current levels due to a lack of fresh catalysts (the Pengerang regasification terminal will only come onstream at the end of the decade). Valuations are not compelling, but the stock still appeals to funds seeking earnings stability.
- I will continue to hold PETGAS.

Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (6 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1615589

At the time of writing, I owned shares of PETGAS.

This is typical problem of keep acquiring other companies.

agree... telco if doing good then is cash cow.. if not then the capex is very high..
not sure if axiata can do as good as digi in other countries~

This is Preliminary Analysis.

HSPLANT Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/08/hs...sis-8-may-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– Absolute EY% – Buy below 1.67, sell above 2.58
– HSPLANT is currently fully valued. Besides, its EY% is only 4.3%.
- Over the years, HSP’s upside growth potential has been limited due to the lack of land expansion, which could be exemplified by a mere 1,769 Ha increment in its total planted area, from 33,782 Ha in FY 2008 to 35,551 Ha in FY2013. In contrast, its peer, IJMP’s total planted area has doubled over the same period, from 25,293 Ha to 52,863 Ha. To further enhance HSP’s future earnings in the longer-term, it is essential for HSP to grow its FFB production which has been relatively stable. Perhaps HSP needs to get out of its comfort zone and start to be more aggressive in expanding its landbank. And given the fact that HSP is a productive planter with FFB yield and OER outperforming the industry average, coupled with a high average EBIT/Ha of RM7,136.54, these imply that it has the capability to achieve better results.
- The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. HSPLANT earnings is expected to improve in coming years.
- I think HSPLANT valuation is not attractive at this moment. I will consider to enter if there is any buy signal in technical.

Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (26 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1549885

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of HSPLANT.

lcchong76, can you cover WTK please ? tq

This study is created specifically for educational purposes only where I will use it for a special occasion later. I may not update analysis of this stock in the future.

IJMPLNT Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/09/ij...sis-9-may-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
- Absolute EY% – Buy below 2.80, sell above 3.79
- IJMPLNT is currently fully valued. Besides, its EY% is only 2.03%.
- IJMP’s future earnings will be driven by its Indonesian operations, and thus making its Indonesian business profitable is essential. Its Malaysian business has been growing steadily, except in FY2013, and the profit before tax (PBT) has never turned negative since it was listed. Nevertheless, the group’s profitability has been dragged down by its Indonesian operation. Many expenses related to planting activities will have to be expensed once the oil palms become matured in about 3 years’ time.
- At the group level, IJMP will allocate RM20-30 mln and RM200-250 mln for Sabah’s replanting and upgrading cost, as well as Indonesia’s final phase of planting (approximately 2,500 Ha land area) and infrastructure cost (including the construction of the second mill to be commenced in 2015) in FY2014, respectively. In the following 2 years, the group expects a lower capital expenditure at RM150-200 mln per annum. All these expenditures and higher cost of production require IJMP to have strong financial fundamentals.
- The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. IJMPLNT earnings is expected to improve in coming years.
- I think IJMPLNT valuation is not attractive at this moment.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (27 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1551241

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of IJMPLNT.

UTDPLT Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/10/ut...is-10-may-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
- Absolute EY% - Buy below 16.95, sell above 22.09
- UTDPLT is currently fully valued.
- The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. I expect earnings of UTDPLT will improve in the coming years.
- So far, among the plantation counters, UTDPLT is probably one of the outstanding companies in terms of crop production and business performance.
- I think UTDPLT valuation is not attractive at this moment. I will keep this stock in my Watch List.

Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (28 Apr 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1606629

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of UTDPLT.

GAB Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/11/ga...is-11-may-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values/Market Timing:
– 10-Y DCF: 11.47 – 14.09 (MOS: -25% -> -1%)
– Absolute EY%: Buy below 10.48, sell above 13.20 (MOS: -8.31%)
- At the current price (14.30 as of 11 May 2014), GAB is already fully valued or over valued. Besides, MOS derived from all models are not up to my benchmark (24.71%).
- The dividend return spread between GAB and CARLSBG vs the 10-year MGS yield has narrowed to only 30-40bpts vs the historical 10-year average of 280-290bpts. (Source: RHB)
- Going forward, I remain conservative and skeptical above volume growth in the brewery sector as some reports show that the industry is saturated, coupled with several other external factors such as rising fuel costs, inflation as well as potential exposure to excise duty hike in the near future. However, earnings should be sustainable at current levels.
– Based on my growth analysis, as of FY14Q3, GAB only achieved 71.4% (1,197,717) of FY13 revenue (1,676,348), and 69.5% (151,270) of FY13 net profit (217,604). Therefore, most likely, I estimate GAB’s FY14 result will be flat or slightly lower if compare to FY13.
- 2014 will be a challenging year for brewers due to competition from contrabrand beers and as consumer spending dwindles. Fortunately, this will be partially alleviated by the Visit Malaysia Year 2014 event.
- In my opinion, there is still some downside risk even though the share prices of both stocks have fallen sharply from last year’s peaks (down 30-45%). 11.60 – 13.00 is a good support zone, from fundamental and technical aspect. Chances of GAB dropping below this zone is low.
- I may accumulate GAB if its price got big discount, such as below 11.00.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (9 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1618941

At the time of writing, I owned shares of GAB.

This study is created specifically for educational purposes only where I will use it on a special occasion later. I may not update analysis of this stock in the future.

TSH Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/12/ts...is-12-may-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
- EY% - Buy below 2.19, sell above 3.75 (MOS: 11.97%)
- In my opinion, TSH still got a little bit of upside.
- The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner.
- Analysts posted positive outlook on TSH because
a) strong FFB production growth of 13%-15%
b) young age profile of 6-7 years old for the majority of its planted area
- However, due to increasingly impairment costs, I am not sure efficiency of TSH management and operations. Unlike its peers, TSH leverage level is also higher.
- This stock doesn't fit my taste.

Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (25 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1547169

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of TSH.

This study is created specifically for educational purposes only where I will use it on a special occasion later. I may not update analysis of this stock in the future.

KLK Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/14/kl...is-14-may-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– EY% – Buy below 16.01, sell above 24.68
– In my opinion, KLK is fully valued.
- The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. KLK earnings will improve in the next few years.
- KLK’s current price is at a premium due to the young age of the group’s oil palm trees. Average age of KLK’s oil palm trees is 11 years old as young trees in Indonesia compensate for the older trees in Sabah.
- In longer term, KLK’s outlook is positive as earnings impact will likely be from FY18 onwards. Note that oil palm trees usually start bearing fruits from the 3rd year onwards and the field preparation work may take up to one year.
- Based on Q1 2014 performance, revenue, net profit and FCF increased 7.5%, 12.2%, and 97% respectively by comparing to Q1 2013 results.
- I believe that KLK is in good position to achieve better result in FY14.

Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (19 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1542173

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of KLK.

JTIASA Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/15/jt...is-15-may-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value
– EY%: 3.31 – 5.71
– Analysts’ forecast JTIASA may be able to achieve 0.12 and 0.22 EPS for FY14 and FY15. However, based on performance of 2 quarters of FY14, the cumulative EPS is 0.04. I am not sure JTIASA can even achieve 0.10 EPS by the end of FY14. So, for absolute EY%, I discounted the analysts’ forecast to 0.10 (FY16) and 0.15 (FY15).
- The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. JTIASA earnings will improve in the next few years.
- In terms of productivity, costs, efficiency and financial health, KMLOONG outplayed JTIASA. JTIASA may have greater potential but KMLOONG’s future prospect is not bad.
– Being a leader of the timber and plywood industry, it has not been showing much profit because they have used the cash from the timber business to plant oil palms. It started planting oil palms in 2002 aggressively and the following tables show the planted area and it’s FFB production.
– The total planted area and the FFB production have been increasing rapidly since 2005. The palms are physically growing and producing more and more fruits every year.
– Their current FFB yield is not optimum because most of the palms are young. Their FFB yield will improve when their immature trees become mature.

Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (25 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1547381

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of JTIASA.

GKENT Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/15/gk...is-15-may-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value:
– 5Y DCF: 2.91 – 3.26 (MOS: 38% – 45%)
– Absolute EY%: 1.54 – 2.56 (MOS: 30%)
- GKENT has very strong competitive advantages where it is in a very good position in building wide economic moats.
- GKENT has been moving in the range from 0.4 to 1.7 since 2004. It couldn’t break 1.7 twice (2004 and 2010). However, since 28 Mar 2014, GKENT has been so bullish (without obvious correction) and closed at 1.7 on 11 Apr 2014. For those investors who spotted and invested GKENT at lower price, thumb up to them.
- GKENT formed a support at 1.7. I have bought GKENT at the support level with assumption where GKENT will continue its trend.

Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (27 Mar 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1577701

At the time of writing, I owned shares of GKENT.

Compare to UTDPLT, which stock you will choose? which UTDPLT Q1 revenue increase 21% and profit increase 35%. And this few days, the price fly more than 5%.