Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

Bump Topic Topic Closed RSS Feed
11 Pages < 1 2 3 4 5 > » Bottom

Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+

 V12 - Property prices discussion, For non "UUU" and "DDD" campers only...

views
     
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jul 31 2013, 02:48 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,216 posts

Joined: Mar 2013
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 31 2013, 02:28 PM)
Anon good one however there are a few point which seems to be a flaw.
1) interest rate. BNM wants to bring down the overall household debt. Increasing the % of interest will not help in fact it might drive away foreign investors which our government is looking for. Putting a higher interest rate will cause the speculators to go bankrupt over night (hopefully). What BNM aiming at the moment is to stop speculation and reduce the overall household debt. Have anyone of us wonder why until today they are still allowing foreigners to purchase any property which is above rm500k?
2) blue chip. In any case if the economy turn sour your investment will be in a negative cash flow situation.
3) blue chip investment require a large sum of money to return a certain % of ROI. With property it's the other way round. RM60k initial investment for a 400k property and there you go someone will be financing for you and in x number of years the return of appreciation + the payment made by someone else could return you a much better ROI. Of course there are risk on both method of investment.. One requires you to closely monitor the market and another requires you to continue looking for tenant.
*
Country Last Previous Highest Lowest Trend Unit Reference Frequency


Australia 2.75 2.75 17.5 2.75 Percent Jul-13 Monthly

Brunei 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 Percent Jun-13 Monthly

China 6 6 10.98 5.31 Percent Jun-13 Monthly

Cyprus 0.5 0.5 4.75 0.5 Percent Jul-13 Monthly


Egypt 9.75 9.75 21.4 8.25 Percent Jun-13 Monthly

Euro Area 0.5 0.5 4.75 0.5 Percent Jul-13 Monthly

France 0.5 0.5 4.75 0.5 Percent Jul-13 Monthly

Germany 0.5 0.5 4.75 0.5 Percent Jul-13 Monthly

Greece 0.5 0.5 4.75 0.5 Percent Jul-13 Monthly

Hong Kong 0.5 0.5 8 0.5 Percent Jun-13 Monthly

India 7.25 7.25 14.5 4.25 Percent Jul-13 Monthly

Indonesia 6.5 6 12.75 5.75 Percent Jul-13 Monthly

Japan 0 0 9 0 Percent Jul-13 Monthly

Laos 5 5 35 4 Percent Jun-13 Monthly

Macao 0.5 0.5 8 0.5 Percent Apr-13 Monthly

Malaysia 3 3 3.5 2 Percent Jul-13 Monthly

Myanmar 10 10 12 10 Percent Jun-13 Monthly

Netherlands 0.5 0.5 4.75 0.5 Percent Jul-13 Monthly

New Zealand 2.5 2.5 67.32 2.5 Percent Jul-13 Monthly


Philippines 3.5 3.5 56.6 3.5 Percent Jul-13 Monthly

Singapore 0.04 0.03 20 -0.75 Percent Jun-13 Monthly

South Korea 2.5 2.5 5.25 2 Percent Jul-13 Monthly

Thailand 2.5 2.5 5 1.25 Percent Jul-13 Monthly

United Kingdom 0.5 0.5 17 0.5 Percent Jul-13 Monthly

United States 0.25 0.25 20 0.25 Percent Jun-13 Monthly

Vietnam 7 7 15 4.8 Percent Jun-13 Monthly


Well if anybody is confused, interest rate for the country is next to the mentioned "country" word. Eg Malaysia is at 3.

Now ours are actually among the highest in the region. Well, my take will be even if FED increased by 25bps, BNM would not increase until next year. Then I could be wrong. And notice how low the interest rates in European and US contries.

SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jul 31 2013, 02:57 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,216 posts

Joined: Mar 2013
QUOTE(kidmad @ Jul 31 2013, 02:51 PM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

bro sorry not good with the figures. Can share with me what does it represent?
*
These are the current intrest rates for the countries

Well Malayisia is at 3%
Thailand is 2.5%
Indonesia just increase 0.5% to 6.5%
Singapore 0.04%. I am not sure about this. I checked and it is not a typo?
Philippnes is at 3.5%

These are the current interest rates regionally. And then look at
US 0.25%
european countrues 0.5%.

When BNM want to increase rates, they still have to look at the worldwide intrest rates...and indicator will always be from US FED. We can just wait, they will announce tomorrow I think.

SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jul 31 2013, 03:03 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,216 posts

Joined: Mar 2013
QUOTE(all blacks @ Jul 31 2013, 02:55 PM)
No wonder... Never knew FD plays such a big role.. I actually submitted only my base salary and that also can lepas dy, but per annum salary is higher due to bonuses..

Btw they did offer the reno loan which follows the BLR rate + x.x%..  but than I decided to drop the deal n yes, it was a double storey..

I juz found it nt worth it n too much of a risk.. The launching price, few years back was 50% of the current price n the owner actually wanted even more... Paying so much for a sub sale unit which also needs quite a bit of reno work wasn't a gud choice... Family advice me to pull off n I did...

But im nt sure if it would have been a smart move to take up a fixed rate loan through insurance company... Since they are offering lowest ever fixed interest rate n it's kind of immune to interest rate inflation..
*
I went to 3 different banks and none of them would have given me such loan. And they will take all your loans include car loan and not just that house loan itself. Frankly, if a guy in my bank approve such a loan, that guy will definitely get a warning or just be fired. Which sotong bank is this?

I said that you should look at the bonus, See how I am making? They dont wan't too. Then look at my increment and my potential increment in d future? Nope. We want your salary per month only. In the end I had to make a joint loan with a family member. But I am bearing it all of course.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jul 31 2013, 03:28 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,216 posts

Joined: Mar 2013
QUOTE(all blacks @ Jul 31 2013, 03:18 PM)
4.8 nt tat bad rite? No CC and no loan with bank also is considered as an issue  doh.gif
I actually tried couple of the banks and the worse was the famous P.. B la.. the rest was all around the same amount.. For sotong bank few branches quoted the same amount initially (Mostly PJ n few in KL).. But in my case I produced a letter from the company which states per annum salary for this year which includes bonuses n so on... So nt an issue la since my EA form can back it up...
*
I dont think that sotong bank can do business like that, seriously. IF BNM knows they do this they are screwed. If you don't believe me all blacks, you can try and call BNM and ask. Maybe they give you a reward or something for highlighting this to them. If I were an auditor in BNM, this is an audit finding for me, and the bank's CEO is going to be in trouble.

Unless of course they say you are actually earning 20k a month and 70% is actually nothing. Then different story la.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jul 31 2013, 03:48 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,216 posts

Joined: Mar 2013
QUOTE(all blacks @ Jul 31 2013, 03:35 PM)
But again the 70% was from my base salary.. If they check per annum then its only around 50-60% which the officer didn't noe when I approached him.. The funny part is that, he mentioned to me that if u r degree holder + professional job the cap is higher which was 7x% percentage of ur gross salary.. I can't see how it actually helps..
*
Now I see, that officer has made a mistake then. He can not do that. BNM will have an issue with this if they know. I tried to convince the loan officer, look at perannum salary with the bonus, they won't accept. At least the major flaw that I see here is they did not put in your car loan in 70%? That is already a big NO NO for BNM. Now the 2008 crisis is because we give this kind of non supervised loan like this. Looking at Malaysia Banks, they are ok. but then first time I heard of this sotong bank doing this. Definitely cannot do it in the bank I am working now.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jul 31 2013, 03:56 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,216 posts

Joined: Mar 2013
QUOTE(Anon_1986 @ Jul 31 2013, 03:50 PM)
1) Actually increasing interest will bring in foreign investors for bonds and cash deposits. Foreign investors that come in to invest in industry tend not to borrow in Ringgit anyway, and will not be affected by domestic interest rates. Again though, I foresee any interest rate movements to be gradual instead of sudden.
2) Generally blue chips are less affected by fluctuations in the economy, but I was talking specifically about inflation and currency depreciation. If you throw in a recession in the mix, unemployment will leave condos untenanted and the entire property bubble will collapse as well, and the safest bet is foreign equities then.
3) You are correct that blue chip returns tend not be leveraged, but your risk is much smaller because you are not leveraged, and because entry/exit costs are lower. RM 60k in blue chips, if the market dips 10%, you lose RM 6k, RM 60k initial investment for a 400k property requires like RM 10-20k for closing costs and taxes. A depreciation of 10% (40k) will wipe out your entire RM 60k. God forbid you lose your job, or are forced to sell for some other reason. You will then have to incurr another RM 10-20k to sell it, and will have to wait a gawd awful long time to get your money. I do agree that rental yields can cover part of the costs, but that assumes optimistically that interest rates stay low, and that your property will remain tenanted. There's a precarious balance between interest rates, occupancy rates and rental rates whereby the cost of leverage can greatly outweigh the income from tenanting.

Here's a thought provoking calculation for you (all hypothetical numbers. Feel free to substitute your own)

Property price = RM 400,000
Downpayment = RM 60,000
Loan = RM 340,000 at a conservative average interest rate of 7% over 30 years (ARM interest ranges from 4.2% to ~10%)

Without counting your rental yield, you would have paid RM 60,000 upfront, and RM 2262 a month for 30 years.

Assuming property price appreciation of average 5% per annum for 30 years, your RM 400,000 property will be worth RM 1.7 mil at the end of 30 years.

Now let's look at investing in a sizable basket of blue chips using dollar cost averaging.

Initial investment = RM 60,000
Monthly investment = RM 2262 for 30 years.
Assuming capital gains of 5% per annum for 30 years (unless you have reason to believe equities will underperform property in the long term), and without counting your dividend yield, you will have equities worth RM 1.8 mil at the end of 30 years.

Consequently, there is no real long term advantage for owning property versus buying blue chips. The only reason to buy property over equities is if the rental yield (including periods of vacancy) minus all expenses (taxes, maintenance, vandalism, tenant damage, legal fees, agent fees, reno costs etc over 30 years) is greater than blue chip dividend yield (of a growing stock portfolio) during the same period. Note also that with blue chips you have high liquidity, and low entry-exit costs.

This much is obvious to the educated observer. If properties were really an absolute superior to equities as an investment, why hasn't all of the world's money poured into owning nothing but properties over the past 100 years? Why would anyone ever buy stocks or bonds? I think the equilibrium where buying property is superior to buying stocks is where prices are below historical price to income ratios and price to rental ratios. Both ratios are not making much sense at the moment, and will make even less sense if interest rates rise. In such cases, a portfolio readjustment will be in order.
*
I was in V11 last, dunno about v10 but Anon, you were never this thorough on your posts last time. Now, WOW! what happened? just asking.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Aug 1 2013, 10:07 AM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,216 posts

Joined: Mar 2013
Other thing to consider about investing stocks is stocks are very volatile compared to property. If you invest in stocks, you will not sleep as well.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Aug 1 2013, 03:53 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,216 posts

Joined: Mar 2013
QUOTE(Anon_1986 @ Aug 1 2013, 12:08 PM)
Unlikely to hit 7% in next 2-3 years as US rates will still be low. Beyond that I can't say, as I have no crystal ball. But 7% averaged out over 30 years is a conservative estimate, and is based on historical data. You would expect 2 to 3 recessions during that period anyway. Entry cost is low for new launch, but you get a grand total of zero yields while the property is under construction, so it evens out.
*
Well if expect 2 or 3recession during those times, it will affect more on stock than properties. Kind of scary. Your porfolio can just be wiped out. But property, has it ever been that bad? Ok maybe in the US but then their interest goes to 0.25%.

Now will the same be happening in Malaysia? My prediction in 30 yrs, Pakatan would already be in power and our economy will be in a much better shape than now. Because in 30 yrs, the senior people who support current government will be dead. The young generation will mostly vote for Pakatan.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Aug 1 2013, 05:25 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,216 posts

Joined: Mar 2013
QUOTE(Nomos @ Aug 1 2013, 05:18 PM)
If im not mistaken i think anon was only referring to blue chip stocks. Has any been wiped out in the last 30 years? Anyway i think the key message was dont get overexposed in property (and not this is better than that etc)
*
Well AIG was almost wiped out before the bailout. Look at MAS once was 8 ringgit. During 1998 crisis Maybank from the near 10rm went to almost 2 i believe?. I dunt remember.

This post has been edited by AmayaBumibuyer: Aug 1 2013, 05:27 PM
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Aug 1 2013, 05:31 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,216 posts

Joined: Mar 2013
QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Aug 1 2013, 05:25 PM)
Well AIG was almost wiped out before the bailout. Look at MAS once was 8 ringgit. During 1998 crisis Maybank from the near 10rm went to almost 2 i believe?. I dunt remember.
*
Oh yeah Bank bumiputera does not exist anymore. My point was, during these recession period in Malaysia, stocks hurt the most compared to property.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Aug 1 2013, 06:09 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,216 posts

Joined: Mar 2013
Well doesnt matter, if you want to use history as part of our analysis to say which is better, stocks are more riskier than properties. History says so.

Then if you want to say that properties are different nowadays where it is an investment tool or whatnot and want to use US as a guide or comparison then US drop its interest rates to 0.25%.

And i believe that everybody who bought fennel are mostly 90% for own use and not for investment, i mean everybody here will agree even the upside camp, that fennel is too expensive to give any return.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Aug 1 2013, 06:25 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,216 posts

Joined: Mar 2013
QUOTE(kidmad @ Aug 1 2013, 06:12 PM)
and to add on.. 4.5 years wor... hurmm...  hmm.gif  anything could happen within the next 5 years.
*
Yup looking at 5 yrs and as a stock investor myself, i would be more worried on stocks that i hold rather than the properties.

So many things affect stocks. World oil price, fed interest rates, tsunami in japan and KABOOM Klci drop 20 points in 10 minutes. I tell you u wont sleep at night. Coz if a tsunami happens in japan like last time, my house price is still d same but my stocks were getting a beating.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Aug 1 2013, 06:26 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,216 posts

Joined: Mar 2013
QUOTE(kidmad @ Aug 1 2013, 06:23 PM)
u not sure yet whether ada org mau beli or not. for RM1.1m you will have many other options man... would rather invest 3 double storey in NILAI than to have a single condo in Sentul leh.
*
Yeah dats why for me i think it is impossible dat majority were investors on that day.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Aug 1 2013, 06:35 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,216 posts

Joined: Mar 2013
QUOTE(kidmad @ Aug 1 2013, 06:26 PM)
stock will also impact property development.. YTL stock went down the drain.. do you think this sentul project will continue???

better buy sub sale chor.
*
Well for this example, it doesnt matter if you buy YTL stocks or YTL properties, either way u are screwed.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Aug 1 2013, 08:39 PM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,216 posts

Joined: Mar 2013
QUOTE(Nomos @ Aug 1 2013, 08:04 PM)
To me, real home buyers wouldnt queue up like that, especially for a condo at that price in Sentul which is an area im almost certain many of them havent lived in before. If they were selling DSLs maybe... But these condos? Im not denying the project is attractive. But if these people wanted, they could have bought nice existing condos in the vicinity.
*
Maybe, my experience with Amaya, we were queing up. Lucky there were lots of bumi lots coz non bumis are mostly finished. I surveyed everybody, yup i can see there were investors, but then hearing the discussions among them, there were people buying for own stay. Not for investment. So i ask myself, what category am I? I actually bought it for a backup for own stay. Just in case i cant find any good landed house. Then in d end i bought two, this is a backup for my children and at d same time maybe rent it out. Then what category am I? I think both for investing with a backup for own stay. But then can say for own stay with backup investing too. Dont intend to sell but then never say never. Well i m giving pov of my own self as a property buyer.


SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Aug 2 2013, 04:28 AM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,216 posts

Joined: Mar 2013
QUOTE(Veda @ Aug 1 2013, 11:14 PM)
Maybe your emotional make-up not suited to stocks?  hmm.gif I've lost sleep due to stress over my job, but I've never lost sleep due to stocks.

I have both stocks and properties. KLCI drop 20 points is nothing .... some overseas (blue chip) stocks can go down (and up) very sharply.

But one thing I noticed is that my friends who are heavily into properties (>10 biji) don't tend to do well in stocks. Maybe cause the skills and mind set required are very different.
*
Well i guess in normal market condition you wont lose sleep, but if it is recession period? I can imagine the guy who bought AIG last time. Anyway I already made some return from stocks. Get in and get out before anything happens. After the 2008 election, KLCI dropped more than 100 points!

Anyway about your fren, so he made good return from properties I imagine. Just shows properties are better. Can anybody here in low yat forum give example of frens who are good at stocks but bad in properties? I believe it is either you are good with properties and stocks or you are good with properties but not stocks. I never heard somebody who are good with stocks but bad with properties. But Then i can be wrong, maybe somebody out there can share his experience.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Aug 2 2013, 10:04 AM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,216 posts

Joined: Mar 2013
QUOTE(kidmad @ Aug 2 2013, 08:58 AM)
Yup your wrong. I somehow get to know a fellow colleague who only invest in stock and never into property. His word of advise... prepare to pay a sum of tuition fee before you can start earning haha.
*
Oh thats not what i meant. I mean is there a guy invest in both but his stock portfolio was increasing but his property invest went down. I never heard it happen to anybody that invest in both. When somebody invest in both are both stocks went up but property portflio diminishes? Did that happen to somebody who invest in both in malaysia?

If somebody preferred stock over the other, well that is just preference and yeah different risk appetite. Actually i preferred stocks over properties but as i said i just bought the preprrty for own stay and then another one because the opportunity was just too good to pass up. And trading stocks are just easier to do and make money.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Aug 2 2013, 10:07 AM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,216 posts

Joined: Mar 2013
QUOTE(kidmad @ Aug 2 2013, 09:52 AM)
Perhaps the same person? lol. Well i am straight forward and open to criticism. His indeed driving a jetta - did not take loan for it.. and staying in a fully paid semi-D in usj heights.. and his only 38 this year. I always chit chat with him regarding props... stock market and any rubbish which relates to financial topic. His comment was the same... waiting for the right time atm. He too share with me that he parked his money somewhere and waiting for the chance and asking me whether i'm interested to join him. Told him no money.
*
So he is not holding any stocks right now? But then he has the semi D.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Aug 2 2013, 10:20 AM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,216 posts

Joined: Mar 2013
QUOTE(kidmad @ Aug 2 2013, 10:11 AM)
nop spoken to him about this topic last week when his doing all his "si lai claim" hahaha. he release everything he has in hand last month and his now playing the waiting game. I guess he have a point and i too agree that if you have any stocks you should release them and wait for the real moment to re-enter. His Semi-D is for own stay though his only worry was aiya... my car 2nd hand value so low. HAhaha

Anyway can't comment much on your previous statement never encountered before in fact my circle of friends were not so good in stock market... we are all better with binaries than the graph and charts in stock market.
*
I thought u r not into stocks? Ask ur fren when is the right moment to go back to stock. And his semi D must increase in value right? Well if it increases, then indirectly, he is a successful proprty investor and directly successful in stocks.
Yeah 2nd hand car value so low. I feel it. Cant imagine myself buying a 1st hand car and just diminshes in value so fast.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Aug 2 2013, 10:39 AM

Regular
******
Senior Member
1,216 posts

Joined: Mar 2013
QUOTE(kidmad @ Aug 2 2013, 10:33 AM)
nop i'm not.. I've already set a path which I want to go along with it. Will be only into property and my plan is to accumulate 7 by the age of 40 with some being fully paid off. I do not want to bother myself with other investment link cause i really do not have that much time..

bro again i think the investor word in this sense is a wrong word to use yes his Semi-D appreciated close to 200% but he always ask me.. If i sell where i want to buy? where am i going to stay? That's also a right question to ask to be honest. I think you can only categorize oneself if and only if the person plans to sell his property if they are planning to keep it until they sleeps in the coffin i don't think it's right to categorize ppl as a property investor. no?
*
Yeah thats why i said indirectly he made a successful purchase on a property. Indirectly he must have analyse the potential benefits when he bought the property, no? Even for own stay i did consider the potential of my house increase, i dont want to pay for a house that can't increase.

And directly he is a successful stiock investors. Now he emptied his portflio coz he thinks it is risky right now to invest in stocks and waiting for d right moment.

11 Pages < 1 2 3 4 5 > » Top
Topic ClosedOptions
 

Change to:
| Lo-Fi Version
0.0185sec    0.81    7 queries    GZIP Disabled
Time is now: 11th December 2025 - 02:30 PM