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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V133, Bear coming?

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Boon3
post Jul 3 2013, 01:22 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Jul 3 2013, 12:36 PM)
Looks like foreign funds like Aberdeen, Mitsubishi etc were busy disposing stock.

GAB, AEON, ORIENT, UTDPLNT, PANAMY etc

Today I accumulate another 100 shares of Nestle.
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Aberdeen and Mitsubishi should be deemed the same seller.

If you read MUFG announcement in UTDPLT announcement it states

Sales by Aberdeen Asset Management PLC and its subsidiaries. Deemed interested in the shares by virtue of MUFG's wholly owned subsidiary, Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking Corp. holding more than 15% in Aberdeen Asset Management PLC ("Aberdeen"). The registered holders are subsidiaries of Aberdeen

I was actually interested in UTDPLT (I was put off because I noticed strong persistant selling, something not right for a stock hitting highs) but these disposal coupled with UTDPLT recent price surge meant that those boys from Aberdeen pushed UTDPLT higher so that they could exit at good prices.
Pushed high to dump. shakehead.gif
Boon3
post Jul 3 2013, 01:24 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jul 3 2013, 11:44 AM)
1 for 10 rights issue lar...
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This news shook all the water stocks higher. tongue.gif

http://www.thesundaily.my/news/759051

Selangor gets nod to take over water supply
Posted on 2 July 2013 - 09:31pm
Last updated on 3 July 2013 - 08:50am

Ikhwan Zulkaflee
newsdesk@thesundaily.com
Print

SHAH ALAM (July 2, 2013): The federal government has agreed to Selangor acquiring all four water concessionaires in the state.

Mentri Besar Tan Sri Abdul Khalid Ibrahim said he has received a letter from Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Abdul Razak agreeing to the deal.

"Selangor is all set to bring the supply of water under its control before the end of the year," Abdul Khalid said.

While he did not disclose figures or terms of the agreement, the Pakatan government, since came into power in 2008, has been clamouring for water to come under the control of the state.

Abdul Khalid told Dr Abd Rani Osman (Meru-PAS) in the state assembly today: "The state and federal governments are working together in drafting the agreement in accordance with the Water Concessionaries Industry Act 2006.

"Under the Act, the federal government has the executive power over any water deal across the peninsular and federal territories."

The Selangor government cited incompetence on the part of the concessionaires as one of the reasons to acquire the companies.

Answering a supplementary question, Abdul Khalid said the sate is ready to manage water supply and that a professional management team is already in place.
Boon3
post Jul 3 2013, 02:03 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Jul 3 2013, 01:53 PM)
Thank you for your clarification, Boon.

Add on some info, Aberdeen nationality is Scotland, while Mitsubishi is Japan.

Am watching another foreign funds favourite, this one in accumulation mode, UMCCA.
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Yes, Aberdeen is in Scotland but the staff in Aberdeen Asset Management here is mostly kampung orang.

UM is also being accumulated by Aberdeen and they have been buying for a very long time. Too lazy to check when they started but here's a sample link to show you that they have been buying since 2010. http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...uncements/33389


Boon3
post Jul 4 2013, 04:45 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Jul 4 2013, 04:29 PM)
Hi pinky,
since you know the next support is rm14.50, why you still want to queue at rm14.80 ?  hmm.gif
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Sorry to butt in but can someone load the chart and show me how 14.50 is the next support?
Boon3
post Jul 4 2013, 05:22 PM

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Carlsberg: no growth, unattractive yields.

Chart:

The above chart is saying a lot about Carlsberg.
Can you listen to what it is saying?
Can someone explain how is possible that 14.50 be considered as a support?

user posted image


Boon3
post Jul 4 2013, 05:24 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jul 4 2013, 05:12 PM)
Ho hum... diam diam.. all stocks green today.  rclxms.gif

But all + 1-2 sen only one... sentiments still scared.  laugh.gif
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tongue.gif

Ada tipsy mah? tongue.gif
Boon3
post Jul 4 2013, 05:27 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jul 4 2013, 05:25 PM)
Woo TA master... out to find blood liao.  laugh.gif

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «
You can run but you cannot hide. tongue.gif

The message for Carlsberg is quite clear for me.

I also better go for my daily run now. tongue.gif
Boon3
post Jul 4 2013, 06:59 PM

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QUOTE(ham_revilo @ Jul 4 2013, 05:29 PM)
you are missing those SMA lines. try putting 10, 20, 30, 50, 200 into the chart then maybe it will make more sense smile.gif
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You should know from the previous traders thread that I don't have lines nor indicators on my charts.

Some thinks such lines and indicators is a must.
And they make their trades based just on these indicators.
Some invest on a stock based just on financial yardsticks alone, like PE.
Some invest in Chinese stocks because it's a low PE stock.
Some might even invest in Maemode the other day because the PE says PE less than 2. Maemode is now suspended. Future unclear. It's ability to bayar their banks unkown.



Boon3
post Jul 4 2013, 07:05 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Jul 4 2013, 05:47 PM)
Bell means dividend payout if I am not wrong.

Attached another chart with SMA indicator tongue.gif

SMA100 RM14.57, pretty close to Pink's 14.50 ?
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Yes, the bell means dividend payout.

Do have a look at the simple Carlsberg chart without any indicators.
Listen to what the chart is saying.
Boon3
post Jul 4 2013, 07:07 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Jul 4 2013, 05:57 PM)
thanks boon3, i hv to reconsider to cheers.gif with pink next time when the time good.
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No problem felix.
Just listen to what the chart is saying.


Boon3
post Jul 5 2013, 09:15 AM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Jul 4 2013, 05:57 PM)
thanks boon3, i hv to reconsider to cheers.gif with pink next time when the time good.
Here's my long breath reply.

I do not use indicators and I always try not to guess where the support for a particular stock is.
The next stock supoort levels are only known after it happens and before it happens, previous supports are just past records which showed where the stock was last supported and if one knows the market well enough, one should know that there is no guarantee that a stock next support level will be at where the stock was supported last.
Some are known to assume that a stock will be supported at SMA lines but less we forget that SMA lines are just lines wich indicates the past average prices over a certain period of time.
Key word? Assume. If assuming is a good form of accuracy then why do we hear constant technical phrases such as ABC crossing a certain SMA line?
Yeah, the theory is if it goes below sma200 it's like a death cross, which indicates extremely bearish and if we give this statement a second thought, we might be asking why wasn't the stock supported at the sma200 line?


Here is the chart again.

user posted image

What is it saying?

1. The stock went on an extremely bullish run early this year. The gain was simply awesome. It went from 11x to 17x. In between it gave out a bonus too - ie the trader got a dividend too!

2. That amazing bullish run was made in roughly 4 months plus.

3. We saw only a minor correction in March.

4. Did the stock warranted such a run? (This you need to know some sort of fundamentals, like it there growth in earnings? Was the stock giving a big whopping dividend? Any major development that might have cause positive sentiment to this stock? etc etc etc)

5. Then came end May. Stock ended 31/5 with a very impressive gain of 1.12. After such a one day show, it was no surprise that some pullback happen. Stock started consolidating this big gain. Trading volume dried up on the 5/6 which could be a good indicator that the selling was done for. Stock was at 16.66. Next day, volume picked up and the stock started falling again. And the selling continued on higher volumes the next few days. Not a good sign.

6. Then came the huge volume day on the 11/6. Huge volume days when the the stock is falling is another not good sign.

7. Stock made a small recovery the next few days but the rebound was weak with hardly any volume. No follow thru rebound. Another not good sign.

8. From a low of 15.10, the stock made a small mini recovery with no volume to 16.10.

9. When the stock fell again on th 24/6, volume increased again. Another not good sign.

10. Stock now fell pass that 15.10.

11. A lower low is NOW in the making..... yet another not good sign.

Would I trade it?

Would I guess where the stock will be supported next?

No I won't but I won't bring out that phrase of catching a falling knife because it's not yet a falling knife. tongue.gif
It's just rolling off a cliff slowly for the time being.

Yes, you can object to any of these points but do understand that these are just my observation and in the stock market, observations are just view points which could easily be wrong.


Boon3
post Jul 5 2013, 06:07 PM

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QUOTE(kueyteowlou @ Jul 5 2013, 03:50 PM)
icon_question.gif can buy more ah?

I dream yesterday night said... RM1 above wor.....  icon_question.gif  icon_question.gif  icon_question.gif  icon_question.gif
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tongue.gif

I need to start dreaming.... tongue.gif
Boon3
post Jul 5 2013, 06:19 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jul 5 2013, 06:11 PM)
YTLPOWR-WB can buy more ah? Just now i dream it went up to RM 1... laugh.gif
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laugh.gif

I need to start dreaming fasttttttt!!! tongue.gif

Boon3
post Jul 5 2013, 06:29 PM

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QUOTE(spiderman17 @ Jul 5 2013, 04:09 PM)
Boon3, appreciate the explanation. Can listen a bit now lol

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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I just realised that I had addressed that posting wrongly.

You can try some simple questions.

1. Is there profit growth for the stock?

2. How is the current yield? Is it really, really attractive?

3. What is the future catalyst that could drive the stock higher (or lower)?

4. Is the stock cheap now? ( The worst thing one could do is to compare recent high with current price and use the price discount as a reason to declare the stock is cheap. Recently, many bought gold when it was falling. They compared the highest price with their buying price and declared that as a good buy. )

Update of the chart.

user posted image

Volume increasing on a sharp down day. shakehead.gif

Starting to change from 'rolling down a hill' to 'falling down a cliff'.

I would not GUESS where we will see the support come in for the stock.

If you were watching the trades today, you would had noted there was quite a number of buyers who lined up at 14.50. That was sold without a hitch.

This post has been edited by Boon3: Jul 5 2013, 06:31 PM
Boon3
post Jul 8 2013, 07:49 AM

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QUOTE(kueyteowlou @ Jul 7 2013, 10:59 PM)
Use my mind.  rolleyes.gif
laugh.gif

Reached master chef series liao!

thumbup.gif

Boon3
post Jul 9 2013, 08:49 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 5 2013, 06:29 PM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «
Yesterday Carlsberg no die.

user posted image

Bet that bottom is found ah? rolleyes.gif

Longer term look of Carlsberg.

user posted image

The other tailou ...... sweat.gif

user posted image

user posted image

Another tailou..... sweat.gif

user posted image

rclxub.gif


Boon3
post Jul 9 2013, 09:05 AM

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felix, you are welcome.
Boon3
post Jul 9 2013, 12:51 PM

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QUOTE(kueyteowlou @ Jul 9 2013, 11:03 AM)
yawn.gif

Boon gor can buy MAS?  wub.gif
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Let me cheat and post back my OLD reply to you.

QUOTE
Billion shares counter I no knoe how to main.  tongue.gif


Or can I cheat again by re-posting this old view on MAS. https://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?act=ST&f...post&p=61180199

QUOTE
Anyway, imo, it's more important to look at the 'current' charting for MAS.
The previous data is not too accurate or relevant because the size of the company has changed (me think for the worse actually. tongue.gif )

user posted image

It doesn't really look all that bad but like I had said, I really can't find any motivation to trade a stock like this.

It's a 16 Billion share gorilla trading dressed as a penny stock.  doh.gif
How to goreng 16,710,781,200 shares?
I think you would need a wok the size of a football field to stir fry this gorilla. tongue.gif


Unless I read your message wrongly, ie you want to buy MAS the company.
Well MAS the company is worth only 5.2 Billion as per its traded share price.
Tailou you made so much money already frying stocks? rclxms.gif

tongue.gif
Boon3
post Jul 9 2013, 01:23 PM

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QUOTE(kueyteowlou @ Jul 9 2013, 01:15 PM)
then why no ppl selling their MAS shares? aiks....

Gadang I am buying in red, sell in green.. ok ah?  thumbup.gif
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You cannot ask why. tongue.gif

LOL!

Buy in red sell in green? rolleyes.gif

How about Greenpacket?
Buy in red, sell in green?

Redtone?
Buy in green, sell in red?

hmm.gif
Boon3
post Jul 9 2013, 01:57 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jul 9 2013, 01:44 PM)
Try this super skill..  Buy high sell low.  icon_rolleyes.gif laugh.gif

Very exciting 1... wink.gif
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laugh.gif

Tak nak.

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