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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V133, Bear coming?

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Boon3
post Jun 28 2013, 10:30 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jun 28 2013, 10:10 AM)
Master boon... 7087 can buy ah?  notworthy.gif

FA looks nice but i don't really fancy the industry, want your opinion also... rclxms.gif

Also recently it has a good run... hmm.gif
*
Test ah? tongue.gif

I say as I see it ok?
If no like you can object. tongue.gif

This is classic Ah Pek stock which just step into the limelight.

That's my description.

Ah Pek stock cos this stock tends to be like Ah Pek. Hehe.. no need I explain, rite?

Just step into the limelight? Profits been on the rise PLUS the increase in dividend payout from March 2013, has certainly attracted attention. This has made the stock to start dancing since April.

It's now consolidating... I think. tongue.gif

So to be sure there's future dancing upwards, ie you want to buy in now... I would only buy higher sell higher la.




Boon3
post Jun 28 2013, 07:16 PM

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QUOTE(V-Zero @ Jun 28 2013, 05:13 PM)
bruce.gif bruce.gif

Self quoting.  brows.gif
Paging for Boon3 gor, see the chart is correct for June, 1769+  icon_idea.gif
I object laa...

Friday evening jor... how can you use paging? tongue.gif

Aiyooooneh...

Still die die want to prove Pong Sway is correct?

KLCI closing at month end.
Feb: 1,637.63
March: 1,671.63
Apr: 1,717.65
May: 1,769.22
June: 1773.54

Copy and past into excel, insert a line chart then compare with Pong Sway.
Want to compare?

How come Pong Sway no tell of the very, very sharp turn of events for June 2013?
Do you think it would be nice to know of the sharp drop and sharper rebound that happened this month?

Pong Sway for the win! thumbup.gif


Boon3
post Jun 30 2013, 08:07 PM

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QUOTE(V-Zero @ Jun 30 2013, 12:56 PM)
tongue.gif
Actually for a correct discount rate I should use WACC.
But 11% should be > WACC so I assume it's acceptable to assume 9/10/11 according to market cap size.  smile.gif

Lower is always better than higher, in valuation.

IMO for stock like Apollo, where growth is almost flat and dividend are more predictable, DDM can be used as a main gauge and DCF to support it.
RM3.74 and RM3.93 is 5% off.

Of course, one can opt for a more optimistic valuation.  tongue.gif
*
I object..... tongue.gif

Apollo's growth is almost flat meh?

I thought Apollo's profit growth from 2011 to 2013 is impressive.

This post has been edited by Boon3: Jun 30 2013, 08:08 PM
Boon3
post Jun 30 2013, 09:25 PM

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QUOTE(V-Zero @ Jun 30 2013, 08:35 PM)
I object your objection. tongue.gif

Left to right from 2007 - 2012. No 2013 as no full report.

[Dividend Paid in RM'000] 14,480  14,680  9,000  12,000  15,400  16,000
[Free Cash Flow in RM'000]  23,736  19,824  36,409  30,905  24,909  35,986
[Net Earnings in RM'000]  24,553  20,974  20,918  24,676  17,854  21,741

To me it's flat.  laugh.gif
*
tongue.gif

Objection la.

The point made I made is I thought Apollo's profit growth from 2011 to 2013 is impressive.

Evidence? tongue.gif

From 2011, Apollo's earnings went from 17 milion to 21 million to 32 million.

Is this growth?

Why use 2007 as the starting point? Why not 2005? If you add in 2005 numbers, got growth ah? tongue.gif



Boon3
post Jun 30 2013, 10:03 PM

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QUOTE(V-Zero @ Jun 30 2013, 09:29 PM)
If you consider revenue then yes there's growth.
And note that it already achieve 18 million earnings in 2008 and 17 million in 2009.
I usually look at growth in a uniform way.
IE maybe little but constant growth instead of erratic earnings.

To me cash flow and net earnings is far more important, also SGA, depreciation, interest etc.

There's no meaning if you make lots of sales by spending far more money, for example.

And 2012 - 2013 wise yes there might be growth, but as I said I didn't include it cz there's no full report.  notworthy.gif
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Objections leh. tongue.gif

Even though I am a trader I know the BIG difference between revenue growth and profit growth leh. tongue.gif

In 2005, Apollo made 14 million ringgit.
Today in 2013, Apollo made 32 million ringgit.

Did you see the 3 years chart for Apollo?
How much was Apollo trading exactly 3 years ago?


Boon3
post Jun 30 2013, 10:11 PM

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QUOTE(V-Zero @ Jun 30 2013, 10:08 PM)
My growth means like increasing 20% YoY constantlytongue.gif
October 2010 trading at RM2.78, now RM4.07, a 46.4% price or 15.46% excluding div / year.
laugh.gif

I dunno how to object liao.

20% growth yearly?
Constantly somemore. laugh.gif
For how many years?

Malaysia stocks got which stock qualify ah? tongue.gif
Boon3
post Jun 30 2013, 10:34 PM

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QUOTE(V-Zero @ Jun 30 2013, 10:15 PM)
20% is just an example, not die die must have lah.
At least constantly increase can d.  tongue.gif

KPJ healthcare.
Net Earnings
2005 - 2011
28,741  41,121  77,791  89,308  114,736  126,221  154,259  icon_rolleyes.gif
*
laugh.gif

Now you only say not die die must have one. tongue.gif

In 2009. net profit 114.
In 2010. net profit 126.

Got 20%?

In 2012 net profit 1146 million.
Profit decline jor. tongue.gif

KPJ profit growth mainly achieved by its acquisitions of new hospitals leh.

Boon3
post Jun 30 2013, 10:47 PM

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QUOTE(V-Zero @ Jun 30 2013, 09:29 PM)
If you consider revenue then yes there's growth.
And note that it already achieve 18 million earnings in 2008 and 17 million in 2009.
I usually look at growth in a uniform way.
IE maybe little but constant growth instead of erratic earnings.

To me cash flow and net earnings is far more important, also SGA, depreciation, interest etc.

There's no meaning if you make lots of sales by spending far more money, for example.

And 2012 - 2013 wise yes there might be growth, but as I said I didn't include it cz there's no full report.  notworthy.gif
Why is Apollo's profits from 2012 - 2013 increasing so much?
What changed?

tongue.gif
Boon3
post Jul 1 2013, 08:12 AM

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QUOTE(V-Zero @ Jun 30 2013, 10:15 PM)
20% is just an example, not die die must have lah.
At least constantly increase can d.  tongue.gif

KPJ healthcare.
Net Earnings
2005 - 2011
28,741  41,121  77,791  89,308  114,736  126,221  154,259  icon_rolleyes.gif
*
Here's a simple question for you.

You said Apollo growth ... errr ....
KPJ constantly increase ....

If that's the case, KPJ clearly lagi geng than Apollo.
If that's the case why Apollo has clearly outperform KPJ the past one year?

KPJ one year chart.

user posted image

Apollo one year chart.

user posted image

Boon3
post Jul 1 2013, 08:16 AM

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QUOTE(KVReninem @ Jul 1 2013, 01:07 AM)
haha yeah rclxub.gif

so one said appolo worth, one said apollo flat.

so i`m wondering, what apollo can be in term of growth?

consumer indeed there but does it necessary reflect tat people will continue buying apollo? wink.gif
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I actually said "Apollo's profit growth from 2011 to 2013 is impressive. "

From 2011, Apollo's earnings went from 17 milion to 21 million to 32 million.

About Apollo's products... I have never tasted one of its products before. tongue.gif
Boon3
post Jul 1 2013, 04:52 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jul 1 2013, 09:34 AM)
u got no childhood hmm.gif

u did not go to public school hmm.gif
*
laugh.gif

Well you have one person that tells it as it is, which is I have never tasted one of Apollo products before and all you can think of is making sarcastic remarks such as no childhood and about not going to public school?

I guess that's the exact problem when one invests based on just numbers. Never mind the company or the product itself, what's more important is crunching out a bunch of numbers.

Have you ever realised that perhaps this is one issue and if you dig deeper you could understand much more?

Remark given was as it is and as a hint on what's happening.
Boon3
post Jul 1 2013, 07:13 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jul 1 2013, 09:34 AM)
u got no childhood hmm.gif

u did not go to public school hmm.gif
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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jul 1 2013, 05:06 PM)
Why u so sensitive hmm.gif
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Your two replies clearly show how childish and immature you are in a discussion and know only how to retort to childish comments when irritated.
Are you simply sensitively annoyed that I said something negative about Apollo products?

Like I said clearly before the remark I've never tasted Apollo products before has an important message within.

Is that remark important? Of course. This is a statement to show that some have tasted Apollo products before.
Instead why don't you think and ask the important why question in a more mature and intelligent manner?
Is Apollo products not easily availabe and if not WHY?

Test. Does one easily see Apollo products around the stores? Does it even pass the 7-11 test?
Yes, the 7-11 eleven test is a simple important for consumer products like Apollo.
If Apollo products are not even sold in a store like 7-11, what does this say about the Apollo brand name?

In 2010, Apollo had 92 million sales in Malaysia. It made 18 million.
In 2013, Apollo had 115 million sales in Malaysia. It made only 5.7 million.

Clearly there is a problem with Apollo profits in Malaysia.

Perhaps you know about it but perhaps you are too sensitive to talk about the weak point in Apollo because you have vested interest.
Yeah, don't bring out any negative issues about my stocks I have!

But as bad as it sounds, this is a unique problem for Apollo.
If you are matured enough, the following is very positive about Apollo.

As stated in my other comments on Apollo, I have stated that Apollo's earnings had been increasing impressively since 2011.

Weak profits locally but compensated strongly by a very impressive export numbers.

In 2010, Apollo had only 67 million export sales, making 8 million in profits.
In 2013, Apollo export sales grew to a very impressive 212 million, making 34.7 million.

What does this say?

Clearly the gold mine for Apollo is in the exports and not locally, which would explain why some can't find or taste Apollo products!

However I wonder why I write so long?
Eat full and nothing else better to do?
Why write and explain when I would most likely get another immature reply. rolleyes.gif


Boon3
post Jul 1 2013, 07:54 PM

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QUOTE(john123x @ Jul 1 2013, 07:15 PM)
+1
the company sound quite shady......it looks like its cooking the books
sweat.gif

I would not make such an accusation.
I think it's possible for a company like Apollo to have developed a strong export market.
Boon3
post Jul 1 2013, 09:37 PM

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QUOTE(Icehart @ Jul 1 2013, 09:00 PM)
So free today? Got tips for me or not.  brows.gif
Most stocks look a bit confused.
Dunno whether they want to go up or down. tongue.gif
Boon3
post Jul 1 2013, 11:06 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jul 1 2013, 10:45 PM)
That day i went to supermarket which sells imported food. Suddenly my friend took a couple of red packet wafers and said these are the best. He asked me if i have eaten them before, and i say no. Then i took the package to see and it was apollo wafers.

My friend is indonesian and the supermarket is in indon. I checked and they also sell roka wafer balls. A very curious encounter.... hmm.gif
*
Something like this below?

user posted image

http://www.apollofood.com.my/product_info....products_id=249

In Kayel, I am not sure which supermarket carries Apollo product.
Maybe I am not that observant. tongue.gif

I am not too surprised if Indonesia is a big market for Apollo.
Boon3
post Jul 2 2013, 08:10 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jul 1 2013, 11:22 PM)
Tne roka ball is in a plastic jar. The wafers are 20 pieces to a pack... rectangular ones, very old school.

Seriously i dont really recall having apollo products during my childhood. But maybe the taste is a hit here? In fact the friend buying it said he has been eating them for years.

Yes i hardly find apollo products in dupermarket...but find them  overseas instead.  doh.gif
*
Those in a plastic jar?

Is this it?

user posted image

If you look at the picture and the other products here: http://www.apollofood.com.my/index.php?cPath=49
I can see that Apollo has readily stated how many cartons per 20 foot and 40 foot container.
Looks like Apollo is really more export oriented nowadays.


Boon3
post Jul 2 2013, 09:50 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jul 2 2013, 09:39 AM)
Wah boon kor.. very curios on Apollo, are you targeting the shares?

The 'roka' wafer balls in jars.. here under packing B
http://www.apollofood.com.my/product_info....products_id=248

The 'old skool' wafer bars in big plastic bags here...
http://www.apollofood.com.my/product_info....products_id=257
*
LOL!

You can see the market like this kind now lor...
since now free, look see look see no harm right? tongue.gif
Boon3
post Jul 2 2013, 10:05 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jul 2 2013, 09:41 AM)
Ho Hum... this is not the first time people comment on the high receivables...at 444 days average.

70% of it's receivables is from Govt Of Malaysia the other 30% is from TNB.

Mana mau lari.  tongue.gif
*
Objection! tongue.gif

I still don't like the name. Hehe..

I feel there's a valid point here.
Two stocks come in mind.
Muhibbah, which got into big trouble with its receivables from APH.
Wasn't APH deemed to be 'safe' at one point.
and then we have the political mess with Puncak Niaga.

444 days average is extremely high.
What I will also do is take into consideration on how fast the receivables is growing.
For example, end of 211, CPark had 200 million in receivables.
Alex now notes that CPark has 260 million in receivables.
We get receivables growing 60 million in one and a half years.
That's a lot. tongue.gif

During this one and a half years period, CPark only recorded some 42 million in net profits.
For me, this says the receivables is growing more than its profits.
Which is no good la.
Badly managed.
Did I say the name is lousy too? laugh.gif

The other question still is why.
Why so much?
Why so long?

tongue.gif



Boon3
post Jul 2 2013, 10:25 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jul 2 2013, 10:21 AM)
Wah you manyak free today ah?  laugh.gif

In the receivables, RM 169 million is unbilled sales for work perform. You know lar contarctor usually have to do work first before can claim progressive completion & payment. ie. payment when 30%, 70%, 100% complete. This is similar to property unbilled sales mah, that one no one complain.  whistling.gif

ER works require performance guarantee and maintenance usually 10%-20% of contract amount, held for 1 year or more. Contractors know lar this point, but it is a risk also.

APH is private venture (with govt backing) and puncak niaga is billed to state government. Cpark bill to federal government.  tongue.gif

Anyway i think the name is approriate... you turn rubbish dump into nice green hill with solar power on top. So from Sai-> park = Cypark!  wink.gif
*
Too free lah. You think I want to spend my time admiring how MAS is now up one big sen to 32 sen. tongue.gif

SaiPark... no no no... lousy name. laugh.gif

Too smelly. tongue.gif
Boon3
post Jul 2 2013, 10:28 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jul 2 2013, 10:26 AM)
So apa smell nice today...  rclxub.gif
*
Ah... I just see.
Apollo up 10 sen.
tongue.gif



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