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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V133, Bear coming?

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gark
post Jun 29 2013, 09:53 AM

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QUOTE(V-Zero @ Jun 29 2013, 09:40 AM)
Ah alright.
Just take the operating profit minus the tax and interest will produce a more uniform FCF.  nod.gif

Slowly converting to a yield based investor.  blush.gif
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Remember to plus back dividend and interest recieved...

Capex is excluding purchase of investment property or AFS instruments

If FCF is higher than reported earnings.. you might have a gem there. laugh.gif

More advance level...

FCF is not just a number by itself... it is used for DCF calculation which is a 'estimated' valuation of the company depending on it's ability to rake in money.

DCF = FCF x [(1+growth)/(1+rate of return)]^years

This post has been edited by gark: Jun 29 2013, 10:03 AM
gark
post Jun 29 2013, 10:04 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jun 29 2013, 10:00 AM)
Kalau Earnings>FCF? Sell asap? sad.gif
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No... not necessary... do the DCF and add discount to the DCF value. You will see more clearly...
gark
post Jun 29 2013, 10:13 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jun 29 2013, 10:05 AM)
WTF

I slept in class when lecturer taught DCF, never got that into my brain laugh.gif
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FCF is only useful for determining if the dividend is sustainable.

DCF is used to value the company . laugh.gif Remember to add discount lo...

Go open back your ACCA books...

This post has been edited by gark: Jun 29 2013, 10:18 AM
gark
post Jun 29 2013, 11:30 AM

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QUOTE(V-Zero @ Jun 29 2013, 11:21 AM)
Hmm.
Did I get it wrong? You mean exclude those from capex?  shocking.gif
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Yes only count PPE. tongue.gif

Or plainly put it.. the amount of re-investment required to maintain and/or grow the ability for the company to sustain the business.

This post has been edited by gark: Jun 29 2013, 11:32 AM
gark
post Jun 29 2013, 11:50 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jun 29 2013, 11:40 AM)
Gark is FCF Master now  notworthy.gif

Some more,  he can modify the formulas  shakehead.gif

Dracula and Vampires better don;t play play with him.
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Hmm.. I detected a hint of sarcasm in that. tongue.gif
gark
post Jun 29 2013, 02:01 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jun 29 2013, 01:23 PM)
Sorry, I don't follow this. Please explain/help.

Cheerio.

P/S Any good book or web site I should go for a good and detailed read on FCF? Thanks.
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The Little Book of Valuation by Ashwath Damodran (Basic)

Investment Valuation by Ashwath Damodran (Advance) - Is an actual University textbook.... doh.gif

Enjoy... laugh.gif

Suggest you start with the basic one.. icon_rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Jun 29 2013, 02:03 PM
gark
post Jun 29 2013, 02:05 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jun 29 2013, 02:03 PM)
Many thanks.

I was expecting "FCF - the Bible"  by The Gark. Ha.

Cheerio
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No lar.. i also curi2 here and there...

Damodran is the 'guru' of security valuation.. at least in theory. laugh.gif Cause investment is more like art than science... wink.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Jun 29 2013, 02:08 PM
gark
post Jun 29 2013, 02:46 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jun 29 2013, 02:31 PM)
Checked my library. Got Investment valuation but dont have the little book (got Little Book of value stock, tak sama).

Found this on the web. Can get a free copy of the Little Book from NY Uni! Note this is a draft copy only. But should still be good.

people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/papers/littlebookvaln.pdf

Thanks.
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Aswath Damodran is a professor at NYU... so that is his draft laugh.gif
gark
post Jun 30 2013, 11:00 PM

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For those interested to use DCF as a valuation tool....there are restrictions in the model.

1. Growth rate cannot be more the discount rate. This caused high growth company cannot use DCF calc. Also high capex companies cannot be accurately valued.
2. Varying discount and growth rate can affect the results. Growth rate and termination rate can be very notorious to predict.
3. Since item 2 is hard to get right, usually a margin of safety is used to round off any errors.


That being said, DCF is mostly suitable for aging, company, with more or less predictable earnings without much growth due to the limitations.
gark
post Jul 1 2013, 10:45 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 1 2013, 07:54 PM)
sweat.gif

I would not make such an accusation.
I think it's possible for a company like Apollo to have developed a strong export market.
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That day i went to supermarket which sells imported food. Suddenly my friend took a couple of red packet wafers and said these are the best. He asked me if i have eaten them before, and i say no. Then i took the package to see and it was apollo wafers.

My friend is indonesian and the supermarket is in indon. I checked and they also sell roka wafer balls. A very curious encounter.... hmm.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Jul 1 2013, 10:47 PM
gark
post Jul 1 2013, 11:22 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 1 2013, 11:06 PM)
Something like this below

In Kayel, I am not sure which supermarket carries Apollo product.
Maybe I am not that observant. tongue.gif

I am not too surprised if Indonesia is a big market for Apollo.
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Tne roka ball is in a plastic jar. The wafers are 20 pieces to a pack... rectangular ones, very old school.

Seriously i dont really recall having apollo products during my childhood. But maybe the taste is a hit here? In fact the friend buying it said he has been eating them for years.

Yes i hardly find apollo products in dupermarket...but find them overseas instead. doh.gif
gark
post Jul 2 2013, 09:39 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 2 2013, 08:10 AM)
Those in a plastic jar?

Is this it?

I can see that Apollo has readily stated how many cartons per 20 foot and 40 foot container.
Looks like Apollo is really more export oriented nowadays.
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Wah boon kor.. very curios on Apollo, are you targeting the shares?

The 'roka' wafer balls in jars.. here under packing B
http://www.apollofood.com.my/product_info....products_id=248

The 'old skool' wafer bars in big plastic bags here...
http://www.apollofood.com.my/product_info....products_id=257


gark
post Jul 2 2013, 09:41 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 2 2013, 03:15 AM)
Alex doesn't like Cypark.  biggrin.gif
http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2013/07/cypa...eceivables.html

Please sell it down. Let it corrects 20% ok ah?  thumbup.gif
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Ho Hum... this is not the first time people comment on the high receivables...at 444 days average.

70% of it's receivables is from Govt Of Malaysia the other 30% is from TNB.

Mana mau lari. tongue.gif
gark
post Jul 2 2013, 10:21 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 2 2013, 10:05 AM)
Objection! tongue.gif

I still don't like the name. Hehe..

I feel there's a valid point here.
Two stocks come in mind.
Muhibbah, which got into big trouble with its receivables from APH.
Wasn't APH deemed to be 'safe' at one point.
and then we have the political mess with Puncak Niaga.

444 days average is extremely high.
What I will also do is take into consideration on how fast the receivables is growing.
For example, end of 211, CPark had 200 million in receivables.
Alex now notes that CPark has 260 million in receivables.
We get receivables growing 60 million in one and a half years.
That's a lot. tongue.gif

During this one and a half years period, CPark only recorded some 42 million in net profits.
For me, this says the receivables is growing more than its profits.
Which is no good la.
Badly managed.
Did I say the name is lousy too? laugh.gif

The other question still is why.
Why so much?
Why so long?

tongue.gif
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Wah you manyak free today ah? laugh.gif

In the receivables, RM 169 million is unbilled sales for work perform. You know lar contarctor usually have to do work first before can claim progressive completion & payment. ie. payment when 30%, 70%, 100% complete. This is similar to property unbilled sales mah, that one no one complain. whistling.gif

ER works require performance guarantee and maintenance usually 10%-20% of contract amount, held for 1 year or more. Contractors know lar this point, but it is a risk also.

APH is private venture (with govt backing) and puncak niaga is billed to state government. Cpark bill to federal government. tongue.gif

Anyway i think the name is approriate... you turn rubbish dump into nice green hill with solar power on top. So from Sai-> park = Cypark! wink.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Jul 2 2013, 10:22 AM
gark
post Jul 2 2013, 10:26 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 2 2013, 10:25 AM)
Too free lah. You think I want to spend my time admiring how MAS is now up one big sen to 32 sen. tongue.gif

SaiPark... no no no...  lousy name. laugh.gif

Too smelly. tongue.gif
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So apa smell nice today... rclxub.gif
gark
post Jul 2 2013, 10:33 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 2 2013, 10:28 AM)
Ah... I just see.
Apollo up 10 sen.
tongue.gif
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Pinky must be very happy liao... laugh.gif
gark
post Jul 3 2013, 11:44 AM

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QUOTE(Pan84 @ Jul 3 2013, 11:39 AM)
Water tariff going up is it? Puncak  hmm.gif
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1 for 10 rights issue lar...
gark
post Jul 3 2013, 11:57 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jul 3 2013, 11:33 AM)
Charts look like dead cat bounce for past few days
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Don't worry there will be lots of bouncing cats on the way down.. until the cat cannot bounce anymore (dead cat), then it is the bottom. tongue.gif

Anyway i do not see enough capitulation for bottom yet..... biggrin.gif
gark
post Jul 3 2013, 12:10 PM

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QUOTE(JaeMi @ Jul 3 2013, 12:06 PM)
Final dividend of 5 sens per ordinary share of rm1 each. Does this mean the dividend is for every rm1 or does it follow the stock price which is example rm2.50? icon_question.gif  icon_question.gif
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Means you get 5 cents for 1 share held.

Dividend never follow stock price but Par price.
gark
post Jul 3 2013, 02:20 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 3 2013, 02:03 PM)
Yes, Aberdeen is in Scotland but the staff in Aberdeen Asset Management here is mostly kampung orang.

UM is also being accumulated by Aberdeen and they have been buying for a very long time. Too lazy to check when they started but here's a sample link to show you that they have been buying since 2010. http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...uncements/33389
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Their main ASEAN investment office is in Singapore and others HK, London and US....only their world HQ in Scotland.

The Malaysian branch is dealing and analyst only.

They are quite good investors, bottom up approach, value investors. I hold several of their investment funds. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Jul 3 2013, 02:22 PM

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