As usual lar.. top up when there is value.. dont chase high... balance your portfolio.

I see...

Asia ex Japan - Good, low PE, Good growth
Asean - Not so good, high PE, Medium growth
GEM - OK for now, low PE. medium growth but have monetary problem
USA - OK for now, Medium PE, low growth
Japan - Not good, High PE, No grwth, Overvalue, temporary upside due to Japan QE
Europe - Ok for now, medium PE, low growth
Frontier - Good, high PE, high growth
Govt/International bonds - Not good, raising rates, depreciating money vs USD
Corporate bonds - Ok for now
Commodities - not good, weakening china economy

The above is purely my view only, not responsible if anyone use the above as an investment guide and then end up at 14th floor.

This post has been edited by gark: Jun 27 2013, 10:31 AM

Slow and steady weh... otherwise crash into wall...

Read again, updated post liao.

China is due to ...

1. Economy slowing down - expected but not severe - this year 7.7%
2. Overvalue housing market - this one wayyyyy overdue to crash, but might have soft landing
3. Banks exposed to no 2 - recent scare by POBC by witholding cash to banks, caused OPR to jump to 12%
4. POBC trying to control no. 2and then force no 3 to act by temporary scare them
5. China banks is now forced to raise capital, reduce lending, hence lower profits expected
6. China labor is no longer competitive, they have to move up the labor chain, so far they are doing ok.

This post has been edited by gark: Jun 27 2013, 10:36 AM

I understand why china banks PE is reduced to 5x.. due to the above, but why consumer/utilities sector also reduce together.. hence concentrating opportunity there...

Don't tell me bank don't want lend money, they no longer need food....

This post has been edited by gark: Jun 27 2013, 11:18 AM

Really? Anyway nothing to worry too much, there is always up and down news, cannot follow them all.

For me GEM will still be volatile... and there is possible further downside, but valuations are very compelling already, putting a floor on max downside.

Look for US 10 year yield, if it breach 3%, there will be selldown on EM.

Anyway as a long term investor, wouldn't you wish to have cheap sale everyday... so why worry?

This post has been edited by gark: Jun 28 2013, 09:47 AM

Eleh.. EM (Asia ex Japan, China, Asean, GEM & Frontier) is nearly 70% of my equity holdings...

The other 30% is world + US

This post has been edited by gark: Jun 28 2013, 10:18 AM

Haha then we same same lor... You got a very volatile portfolio.. can tahan kah?

This post has been edited by gark: Jun 28 2013, 10:23 AM

If kenot tahan and giving you sleepness nights, suggest you sell down until you are comfortable with your volatility.

I always imagine if my portfolio drops 50%, what i am going to do....

My portfolio including stocks can up/down few K's a day...

This post has been edited by gark: Jun 28 2013, 11:19 AM

This i suppork..

GEM bond i still pessimistic...as the valuation shows the yield has further room to go up. This is just the start of the bond selldown...

But.. you can pick up slowly.. as it is always difficult to find the bottom...



http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/government-bond-yield

Dont you guys think you all are too focus on short term gain/loss?

Gotta see the big picture..... not healthy to focus too much on the small ups and down.

Kaboom!

Means they can have the option to invest 30% in non-REIT stocks, but in property stocks...

What to do lately property stocks 'hot' mah so fund chase the next IN thing loh...

Here is the latest CAPE for global equity investment.

CAPE = Cyclically adjusted PE

CAPE is typically more accurate representation of equity value as it has been adjusted for 10 years average & inflation adjusted.



Latin America & China/HK looks good, which is where i am investing aggressively now.

Europe is also fair - maybe should invest there now...

US & ASEAN looks way overpriced...

This post has been edited by gark: Jul 5 2013, 01:03 PM

Yeah but Japan market is falling since 1990.... fell for long time already.

Found it over at seekingalpha. You can google P/E10 or shiller PE for more info.

Treasury bonds yield jumped to 2.7% yesterday closing. USD jumped 1% against RM. Better economy and jobs reported.. so QE tapering is gonna come...

Monday come EM bonds, REITs, Gold and yield equity will have another slaughter...

US equity seems to be doing great... anyway since you on accumulation stage, look at this positively, you can get more equity at bargain prices.

Remember it's the 'toing toing' stage.. now.

This post has been edited by gark: Jul 6 2013, 10:53 AM

Don't chase high.. keep your portfolio balanced. Eventually you will be able to re-load the poorer performing equity.

Come next week if China/HK drop to below 18,000 points, will reload more.

If you are looking at EM, Brazil has fallen a staggering 23% in this month alone and almost 50% from the peak. It is approaching levels last tested during the financial crisis. This is due to the mass protest against the lady president. Also the mining empire of Batista is falling and get crushed under debt, due to USD rising. Looking at these the economy growth and banks are still pretty solid.

I will buy more Latin America equity.

This post has been edited by gark: Jul 6 2013, 11:04 AM