EM bond is not a good time to be in right now. The yields have been heavily compressed during the last few years and it is unwinding now. Based on the rise in bond value over the last couple of years, a 20-30% drop is expected.

The great bond bubble has finally burst...

I will consider to pick up some EM bond, if the yield breaches 10%...

This post has been edited by gark: Jun 24 2013, 01:50 PM

As long as Malaysia don't require FF to purchase their bond then still manageable lah.... but MGS interest rate has been going up recently...

AND our government has been spending recklessly as usual...

This post has been edited by gark: Jun 24 2013, 01:58 PM

Can interest rate go lower then 0%... yes according to EU

"Central Bank President Mario Draghi cut the euro region’s main interest rate in May to a record 0.5 percent and said policy makers were considering a negative deposit rate"

Looks like lots of desperate people around...

Desperate to keep bond yields low and money in investments, rather than people keep lots of cash.

This post has been edited by gark: Jun 24 2013, 02:09 PM

Never time the market...

Bond fund up or down are determined by the bond yields.. as you see the yields are going up, hence the bond prices are coming down.

BNM's interest rate can affect bond yields, but it is not the ONLY factor... bond yields are determined by market forces ie. open buy/sell of government and commercial bonds.

Bond has been going up non stop for the past 3 years with some yield at record low, where else can they go.. this bond bubble bursting is a matter of time until everything is rebalanced once more. Market moves in cycles, you cannot just wish the market going up forever right? Everything gets overbought from time to time and needs to cool down.

Buy according to valuation, balance your portfolio, never time the market.

This post has been edited by gark: Jun 24 2013, 06:21 PM

Trying to commit harakiri...?

Have to look at both side of the coin...equities are getting lower on valuations, but selective buying only...

Today switched $$$$ into First State GEM Leaders Fund and top-up $$$ into DWS China Equity Fund via FSM.

Round 1 : Bear hunting season officially begins!

This post has been edited by gark: Jun 25 2013, 06:32 PM

No topping up for you? Today top up as all my alarm bells are ringing.

Next target sse 1800 and hkse 18k...

Never heard of bull trap ah? Will it be or not... no one knows.

Not that hard... pe and growth... others is just temporary 'noise'. Dont read too much noise, buy on valuations.

Market are never rational, and they will never normalize.

That create pockets of opportunity for investor... if you believe in efficient market theory, then you are better off buying index fund/etf.

Closing already meh? So fast....

Time to buy more then...

This post has been edited by gark: Jun 26 2013, 09:40 AM

If you are accumulating for the long term... would you rather buy more at high market valuation or at low market valuation? If you take investing as punting, then I have nothing more to add...

P/S.. china is selling at 9x forward PE, growth 7.7%. Chinese banks are selling at below 5x PE, <NAV, you think is compelling or not?

This post has been edited by gark: Jun 26 2013, 09:42 AM

If there is so much fear,,, and if the market is keeping you up at night...and if it is affecting you enjoying your life.....

Means your risk tolerance is not what you think it is...

Sell down until you have a good night sleep.

This post has been edited by gark: Jun 26 2013, 10:24 AM

Most GEM countries are at 52 week low, at low valuation.

Brazil - Street Protest at increased govt spending
Russia - Failed bond auction
China - Fiscal tightening, cause OPR to shoot up to 12%
India - Rupee devaluing & stalled economy
ASEAN - Overvaluation - deleveraging

More or less bad news, but valuation is compelling. But prepared to hold for some time as it might go down further, this is just the start.

For First State GEM Leaders - >30% of the holdings are consumer stocks, high dividend counter, they have been beating the index in and out every single year. Very little exposure to financials & materials.

This post has been edited by gark: Jun 26 2013, 10:42 AM

No I am always invested, never sold any UT bought since 2002, but do keep some bond portion (for switching) and investment opportunity cash to top up when there are good valuations. Ride through the entire 2008-2009 mess this way.

Opportunity cash is important for investment (not necessary cash can keep as short term bond or as overdraft facility), for ammo during market downturn. Elephant gun, as WB puts it. You run out of ammo, you run out of moves...

I am poor market timer, so I don't try to sell at top and buy back at bottom..it's for the long term...

This post has been edited by gark: Jun 26 2013, 04:14 PM

I keep short term bond... no drop even tai fung tai yee....

You play mid term-emerging market bond = more risky but higher yield.

Different status....cannot compare...

This post has been edited by gark: Jun 26 2013, 04:49 PM

Short dated A-AAA bonds funds is more or less like FD already....the votality is very very small...

IMHO it is still better than MM funds...

Heart must be steady..

Cannot panic due to fear, cannot greed due to exuberance.