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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V129, All time high!

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TSyhtan
post Apr 13 2013, 10:06 AM

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Ah boon!!!

Give yourself a rest for the weekend, not asking tips tongue.gif
TSyhtan
post Apr 14 2013, 09:56 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 14 2013, 09:49 PM)
Gold Specialist lost 28%  in  3 months ?

Billionaire John Paulson lost more than $300 million of his personal wealth on his gold bet, as the precious metal fell to its lowest price in almost two years.

Paulson has roughly $9.5 billion invested across his hedge funds, of which about 85 percent is invested in gold share classes. Gold dropped 4.1 percent yesterday, shaving about $328 million from his net worth on this bet alone.

Gold tumbled and entered a bear market after falling more than 20 percent since August 2011, bringing more bad news for 57-year-old Paulson, who has struggled with poor returns for the past two years. He told investors last year that his $700 million Gold Fund would beat his other strategies over five years because the metal was the best hedge against inflation and currency debasement as countries pump money into their economies. The fund slumped 28 percent this year through March, a person familiar with the matter said this month.
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After 2008 financial crisis, he made a lot of investment mistake if i'm not mistaken
TSyhtan
post Apr 14 2013, 10:09 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 14 2013, 10:03 PM)
Many did say gold price was low and attractive last week, but went down another 4% on Friday.

Or more to come ?
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Although i'm not expert in metal commodities, but after 2008 financial crisis, the spike in gold is unreasonable from what i can see, totally outperform the other investment

Or maybe it is the sign of USD going to be strong? hmm.gif
TSyhtan
post Apr 14 2013, 10:10 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 14 2013, 10:05 PM)
But FED may stop QE in coming months .......good or bad for Gold ?
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But Bank of Japan will increase its QE laugh.gif
TSyhtan
post Apr 14 2013, 11:47 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 14 2013, 10:12 PM)
Once the US economy gets back on its own feet,  yes.

But Investors in US are more hopeful of the economy  now as compared to 2 years back.
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Definitely, recovery is not a simple task but so far there is some progress compare to few years ago

QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 14 2013, 10:14 PM)
But Japan QE drives down commodity prices  hmm.gif
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Highly unlikely BOJ has the capability as Fed laugh.gif

TSyhtan
post Apr 15 2013, 10:22 AM

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QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Apr 15 2013, 10:02 AM)
Time to retire
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I'm sure his client will not be happy about it tongue.gif

QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Apr 15 2013, 10:08 AM)
It is not about the money. It is about the ego.. "I am better than Bufett ego" biggrin.gif
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U remind me of one fun manager in Malaysia too laugh.gif
TSyhtan
post Apr 15 2013, 10:25 AM

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QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Apr 15 2013, 10:23 AM)
Which Fun Manager? Hmm...
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The fund is very famous in Malaysia, listed whistling.gif
TSyhtan
post Apr 15 2013, 10:45 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 15 2013, 10:25 AM)
The one fun manager parks lots of money in cash account, but claims  to be better than WB, right  laugh.gif
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WB way of investing is totally different from other fun managers, his size is way too big
WB buy business outright and he is owner
Other fund manager buy company share with a little controlling right
These 2 are in different league, how to compare apple to apple? hmm.gif

QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Apr 15 2013, 10:37 AM)
But very old man stock.. Hardly have any heart attack movement one
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But u pay 80 cent for a Ringgit value brows.gif
TSyhtan
post Apr 16 2013, 04:13 PM

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I still remember WB letter to shareholder on few years ago regarding gold investment, today fall of gold price did prove him right laugh.gif

TSyhtan
post Apr 16 2013, 07:10 PM

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QUOTE(jy1905 @ Apr 16 2013, 04:31 PM)
this one no need buffet write
newton ald said so centuries ago

i also wanna say property price in m'sia will fall  tongue.gif
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Population in Malaysia will continue to increase, i saw the statistic of population age, those age 19-35 bracket is the most

QUOTE(gark @ Apr 16 2013, 05:46 PM)
I guarantee they will find a piece of business within 3 years, otherwise the spac operator will only earn 10%.

They will find a business which is bought at low price and then sell to the spac at high price. Like this they will earn much much more.

Later the business bungkus... they day dunno arrr.. when bought that time good ah... now blame the world economy.  tongue.gif

No different that relisting of the many counters in share market. Like Astro delist at PE 15, sell back to you at PE 30 + without the international operations. IOI properties is next... you cannot win over the big boys one eh. whistling.gif
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IOI Properties privatize at PE 8, now listed at PE 10+ laugh.gif
The landbank almost the same laugh.gif
TSyhtan
post Apr 17 2013, 11:24 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 17 2013, 09:37 AM)
Success as in speculation, not success as a business.

The business Hibiscus acquired (LIME petrol) is still making losses, and they only HOPE to find and extract oil according to research. What if the charts and graphs all end up not correct, and not as much oil as expected inside? And also oil now dropping....

The Oman and UAE oilfield - has been explored since 1980's and has sold and changed hands many times until hibiscus - if so profitable why the concession kena turn around like hot stone? Until now still test drill test drill... yawn.gif

The norwegian and australia oil fields is more or less marginal field with low reserves and production (at least got production)...2nd hand field as the most productive years other people have already extracted  most of the stuff and left a little inside.

By the way all 3 oil fields have common shareholders with hibiscus  before selling to hibiscus.

Big risk if you ask me... whistling.gif
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High risk high return brows.gif tongue.gif

That risk indicate why Petronas not keen to list out Petronas Carigali, oil exploration is not 100% guarantee business, it depends on politic connection, skill & knowledge and sometimes luck laugh.gif
TSyhtan
post Apr 17 2013, 12:35 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 17 2013, 12:00 PM)
Lotsa lotsa Lotsa luck....

Last time in Indonesia, the geological survey thought they struck the mother load of oil and gas based on sub surface analysis. There seems to be lots of oil like substance beneath the ground. So they quickly quikcly do a test drill...

Then THIS happened...  laugh.gif

Summary...

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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This is terrible sweat.gif

Exploration of oil going deeper and deeper (For sea), which is why they need high crude oil price to support its cost
Unlike Saudi Arab, their cost per barrel is around USD10-30. In short, those big guys in Oil & Gas has the final say.

So Kencana business is like owning the oil extraction field for 10,20 or 30 years concession? then sell it to Petronas?

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

TSyhtan
post Apr 17 2013, 12:39 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 17 2013, 12:29 PM)
Now I feel so proud of myself for not trading in Hibiscus. tongue.gif
I am still waiting................. tongue.gif
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Ah Boon, today didn't expect so many homework from u, so no need tipsy today tongue.gif

Regarding the disposal in UEMLand, previously it was one of KLCI top 30 component, later it was replace by IHH or Bumi Armada (if not mistaken), hence some of the index fund manager forced to dispose at that price.


TSyhtan
post Apr 17 2013, 01:21 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 17 2013, 12:42 PM)
Tell me When is the next big goreng  laugh.gif
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Please summon me Harry Potter laugh.gif

QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 17 2013, 12:47 PM)
laugh.gif  laugh.gif

Fingers blister jor!

I think it is easy to criticise EPF by pointing out whenever there are news of EPF buying and selling a same stock at the same time.
Sometimes we have to take into consideration of external fund managers.

Recently EPF was made to look bad when one of the external fund managers decided to sell MISC. laugh.gif

Post #2342: http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/2696144/+2340#

EPF had already issued statements saying offer price was too low but when one check MISC shareholder transactions, EPF was seen selling.      laugh.gif  laugh.gif

This issue was mentioned in today's papers.
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Do tell me if there is any stock EPF accumulating, it is better to ride with them tongue.gif
TSyhtan
post Apr 17 2013, 01:57 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 17 2013, 01:39 PM)
FElda FGV laugh.gif

My tip of the day yawn.gif
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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I give up on this counter laugh.gif
TSyhtan
post Apr 17 2013, 03:01 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Apr 17 2013, 02:58 PM)
you bring 5 princess, the reason wasting time shopping and less site visting.

I bring 5  Angelina Jolie.
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can i demand the picture of the 5 angelina jolie tongue.gif
TSyhtan
post Apr 18 2013, 11:06 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 18 2013, 10:59 AM)
Further explanations as below :-

If the market really believes the Bank of Japan is committed to the 2 percent inflation target (and I certainly do), then Japanese bond yields will quickly attempt a move above 2 percent," he said.

"If the Japanese government bond yield begins to rise, then an unsustainable debt position becomes even more obviously unsustainable and the government will be obliged to ramp up its quantitative easing operations to pin yields at low levels."

"I certainly expect accelerating quantitative easing to undermine the yen further, and the market to anticipate this," he added.

Edwards warned investors they should expect money to pour out of Japan in the same way it did after the BoJ's foreign exchange intervention in 2004.
"Who will be a beneficiary of this carry trade ? Probably high yield GIIPS [Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain] bond yields and the euro . And hence the periphery will appear to have been 'fixed'. Who will suffer? Germany, as the euro soars," he said
(Read More: Audacious BOJ Policy Sends Dollar, Euro Soaring )

A weak yen combined with deteriorating balance of payments situations in China and other major emerging markets is reminiscent of the mid-1990s, said Edwards.

"When I see a sharp rise in China' s real exchange rate and deteriorating Balance of Payment, it rings alarm bells. China is not the most vulnerable of the emerging markets currencies to a weak yen, but this conjunction could easily trigger a currency crisis as growth is crushed. High levels of foreign exchange reserves are no protection," Edwards added.

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They don't have any choice, either carry on the old way, or choose to print money and stimulate

All i know is weak Yen is good for their export, as well to increase their inflation
TSyhtan
post Apr 18 2013, 11:22 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 18 2013, 11:10 AM)
I think of , to put some money to buy a bit of Japanese stocks  instead laugh.gif

Affin is quite steady today hmm.gif
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Good move, but do consider the risk of devalue in Yen icon_rolleyes.gif
TSyhtan
post Apr 18 2013, 11:58 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 18 2013, 11:31 AM)
I am looking for mutual  funds investing into Japan.

Lazy to do any researches for a small start up capital. biggrin.gif

Plse suggest if u do have any good ones in mind. notworthy.gif
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Public mutual fund do have Far East Mutual Fund, a huge percentage invested in Japan
TSyhtan
post Apr 18 2013, 02:48 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 18 2013, 12:48 PM)
UBAH from worse to good....

If you don't UBAH, you have only yourself to blame for ...

rclxms.gif
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So are u flying back to Malaysia on 5th May? brows.gif

QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 18 2013, 02:34 PM)
Normally, when new fund mushrooming on certain sector or region time, peak may not far away...

Last time, small cap fund (when 2nd board and third liners were hot time)
Then property (global/region) funds were mushrooming before 2006~2007.
After that China theme funds.

So when many funds appearing and concentrate on certain theme, better be wary.
Just like recently many like Reit and properties investing, make me concern about this sector.

Crowded trade is always a warning sign. Gold was the latest crowded trade investment target just not too long ago.
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Thank u sifu, another method learnt rclxms.gif


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