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 Fundsupermart.com v2, Learn about DIY unit trust investing

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kimyee73
post May 15 2013, 12:02 PM

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QUOTE(yklooi @ May 14 2013, 04:07 PM)
it just depends on why you selected it?
here are a few quotes from Warren Buffett.... .

If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes.

Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks.

Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1.

I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.
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Not many people, maybe nobody, can repeat Mr. Buffett performance. He have access to CEOs and President, we don't. However there are lots of successful trend following traders who made billions of dollars.
kimyee73
post May 15 2013, 02:04 PM

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QUOTE(yklooi @ May 15 2013, 11:06 AM)
yes, u r right...only GOD know what one would react when the mkt are down, my 1st experience on my UT crash was in 2001....tech bubble burst big time. that time dun know abt bond....just hentam all in 1998 ~ 2000 into tech, growth, telecom, global leaders and all others...
burst 2001...UT down..worst case was 80%...
me ...stick to plan??? where got plan...no more monies, job wise was insecure....layoff was every where...OT cut.
was thinking of surrendering my insurance..but then was told the cash value is to little. luckily, i hv a few some surplus $ and made a daring decision to buy a few small cap stocks. 2 are bad till now..3 are VERY GOOD.

when the mkt are down...YES,..i too panicked.
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To avoid panic, you need a written plan. You need to identify the signal for a market crash and monitor that frequently like every day. When the signal come up, execute your plan to the letter. If you don't do this, when the crash come, you'll panic and act irrationally.
kimyee73
post May 15 2013, 04:16 PM

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QUOTE(yklooi @ May 15 2013, 02:31 PM)
signal?? how to identified? at that time everyone was enjoying the profits.... there are industries leaders like Bill gates and Alan Greenspan said that the tech stock was too high.....it did not crash immediately...i think only after 10 mths....just imagine if the Thai mkt can go up +40% in a year....so can m'sia stock, i think that is what is happening to allot of ppl mind right now...?
i remember during the good yr in i think 1992 ~3 the m'sia stock mkt was soo good until my remisier does not have credit to buy for me....every auntie & uncle who buy stocks make $$,  rclxm9.gif  rclxms.gif then it crashed for a while a few years later.... cry.gif  cry.gif
so i would appreciate yr advise on how to identify the signal....and also what is in the written plan... icon_question.gif  notworthy.gif
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There are a number of ways to get the signal(s), some complex and some simple. I'm not going to mention the complex way as I'm not interested in them. I'm a trend follower, so I just look at price action. A simple one is using monthly moving average (MMA) of the US stock market. I like to use SPY ETF as I trade this regularly. SPY is the ETF for SPDR S&P 500 index. If the 10MMA cross below 20MMA, the market is in trouble. Looking at 2008, it cross in June 2008. There are other indicators to confirm this or even provide early warning such as MACD and Slow Stochastic (SS). SS even provide early warning as early as Jan 08.

As for the plan, it is as complex or simple as you want it to be. Simple one like
1. Liquidate all equity in KLSE & US stocks. 100% cash in standby etc.
2. Rebalance UT to 80% fixed income etc.

Then you need re-entry signal. Can use the same indicators such as 5MMA cross above 10MMA with confirmation from MACD & SS etc.
1. Buy 10 lot of XYZ stock etc.
2. Rebalance UT to 80% equity etc.

You need to write down the plan and execute. Don't hesitate and make emotional decision. Don't keep a stock just because it is making tons of profit and you are getting good dividend. Just sell it and wait for price to fall and start to recover before getting in again.

That is simple explaination on looking at signal and execute your plan. Don't blame me if you sell all and the price keep going up whistling.gif
kimyee73
post May 15 2013, 04:44 PM

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QUOTE(Kaka23 @ May 15 2013, 03:10 PM)
yklooi.. you have had few times experience on major downturn. Can you share with me roughly it takes how long from peak of KLCI index to drop 10%, 20% then to rock bottom?

I am putting a FORCE rebalance to a defensive portfolio (20% EQ, 80% FI) if my peak value in my portfolio to drop 15%. Not sure if this figure is reasonable?
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Forced rebalancing is another way to handle market crash. But beware of false signal as you're just looking at portfolio value. Suggest to also look at other indicator such as KLCI moving averages as confirmation. The method I mentioned in earlier post will not detect the small dip in 2011 and 2012. The dip is too small and too short anyway to take advantage of. Maybe your way is suitable to handle those small dip.
kimyee73
post May 16 2013, 07:37 AM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ May 15 2013, 05:47 PM)
Pinky also ada the concept liao.

Bottom line - IMHO, it's our "personal economy" that we shd be triggered, NOT the world's or markets' economy triggers.

eg.
based on Pinky's concept of:
Planned Asset Allocation to hold (AA)
50% equity: 50% fixed income
AND rebalancing if lari 10% of planned:

1. Trigger for FORCED rebalancing is when actual Equity holdings is
a. ABOVE 50%*(1+10%)
or
b. BELOW 50%*(1-10%)

2. Based on Trigger 1(a.) - he can forceably SWITCH OUT / SELL Equities down back to Planned 50%
or if not too gung-ho, perhaps  SWITCH / SELL Equities down to 52.50%, just in case rise even higher/more value to sell

3. Based on Trigger 1(b.) - he can forceably SWITCH IN / BUY Equities up back to Planned 50%
or if not too gung-ho, perhaps  SWITCH / SELL Equities up to  47.50%, just in case fall even cheaper/more value to buy

Reasoning above:
All our holding's "value" is already determined by markets' forces.
Why hunt one by one market & asset class to determine the trigger?

A more complicated version of the above = add in sub-asset allocation & foreign vs domestic allocation tongue.gif

Just a thought  notworthy.gif

eh - BOMBASTIC ka?
simple common Yinglish lar - bombastic will mean i bring out shake(my)spear thee thy thou spake etc  doh.gif
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That is not quite the same. Kaka's forced rebalancing is more like it. The downside with the above normal rebalancing is your portfolio would suffer drawdown as the market move downward and you keep rebalancing. This is like doing dollar cost averaging in a negative way and you don't want to do this in a big market crash as the bottom could be very deep. Using forced rebalancing, you actually lock your portfolio value in fixed income and wait for market to start recovery before moving it back to equity to take advantage of the low NAV.
kimyee73
post May 16 2013, 08:23 AM

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QUOTE(transit @ May 15 2013, 11:46 PM)
3.  Never sell equities in a down market. If your funds are allocated correctly, you should never have a need to sell equities during a down market cycle. This holds true even if you are taking income. Just as you wouldn’t run out and put a for sale sign on your home when the housing market turns south, don’t be rash to sell equities when the stock market goes through a bear cycle. Wait it out.
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The most important thing is not when to get in but when to get out. If you listen to news or analyst etc., they will tell you when to buy but never when to sell. If you know when to sell you'll cut your loses short. Housing may not be a good example as it is not easy to liquidate. With stock or UT, you don't want to keep your stock during downturn as you can make better use of the cash during this period. Also if you lose your job during this recession, your money go stuck in the equity.

For exampe, if you have rm100k in UT, 50K in fix & 50K in equity. When market went down by 10% on equity side, you forced rebalance to 20-80. Now you have rm19k in equity and 76k in fixed. If market went down worst case by 50% on equity side, your UT value is now rm11.5k in equity and rm76k in fixed, total 87.5k. I'm assuming fixed income did not suffer drawdown just for illustration.

Now, example if you use normal rebalancing. When market down by 10% in equity, you perform normal rebalance. Let see how the value ended up by the time market went down by 50%. 10% (47.5k fixed,47.5k equity), 20% (45k,45k), 30%(43k, 43k), 40%(41k,41k) and finally 50%(39k,39k).

If you follow normal rebalancing you ended up with about rm78k versus if you force rebalance, you still have rm87.5k. I stand corrected if my math is out a bit whistling.gif

This post has been edited by kimyee73: May 16 2013, 08:25 AM
kimyee73
post May 16 2013, 09:29 AM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ May 16 2013, 08:52 AM)
Sounds more like "Forced cut-loss" / "flight to safety", rather than "forced re-balancing". Re-balancing - "to bring back to balance or planned" right?
anyhow, semantics only, pardon my Yinglish Nazi-sm  notworthy.gif
IMHO, the concept works fine... IF kaka really hits the fan, ie. a drop of 40% or more.

------
What if AFTER one cuts lost
eg. shifting from Equities 50: Fixed Income 50
to a defensive stance of Equities 20: Fixed Income 80 triggered by a mere 10% fall in equities
AND
the equity market rises, like in mid-late 2011?

Using similar concept of cut-loss / flight to safety but even upping the trigger to 20% fall in equities
same kaka as above or may be even worse in terms of cost of switching + opportunity lost
------

My point of thoughts are:
1. How many times, when the equities market falls, it fall BEYOND 30%?

2. Being a worker (ie work for $), my major point is that i'm just allocating $ into a few asset classes (and regions).
Thus, like allocating my grocery shopping $.
eg.
For meat - i'd buy chicken if it's cheaper/more value VS lamb, or vice-versa
thus, translating into investment vehicles,
i'd buy equity funds if it's of more value VS fixed income funds.
When will A be of more value than B?
When A's cost (ie price) has fallen enough.

Just a personal thought concept yar - investing and trading is a mix of art & science. No perfect right/wrong approach  notworthy.gif
If it's just art - i'll be dead in the water (my EQ sucks  sweat.gif )
If it's just science/maths - all the ivory tower professors & accountants will be multi-millionaires tongue.gif
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Ha ha... That is why my trigger is not based on portfolio value like kaka but on price chart and indicators. If based purely on value, you might have false trigger and missed the potential upside opportunity. The forced rebalancing also have its value but need to determine the trigger point. I use 10% as example only. Maybe kaka will come up with a workable percentage.

EDIT: Did not noticed kaka also look at market indices to confirm his trigger.

This post has been edited by kimyee73: May 16 2013, 09:34 AM
kimyee73
post May 20 2013, 12:02 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ May 18 2013, 03:18 PM)
FSM Recommended Portfolios have switched out from OSK-UOB EM Bond and RHB Asian Total Return in favour of Hwang Select Income...interesting hmm.gif

https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/inves...ntportfolio.tpl
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Where did you see it switched out from OUEMB? All I see is RHB ATR to Hwang SIF.
kimyee73
post May 21 2013, 12:04 PM

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QUOTE(stanny @ May 20 2013, 01:30 PM)
Track by top ups? Means the 1 year period with exit fee duration is reset again and gotta wait 1 year to withdraw or not will be charged?
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They will charge only those units not meeting 1 year period. if you have older units, those need not pay exit fee.
kimyee73
post May 21 2013, 04:15 PM

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QUOTE(Kaka23 @ May 21 2013, 12:13 PM)
you checked this info with FSM?
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I tried this out. You can try as well. Just perform switching and it will tell you number of units eligible for zero exit fee.

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