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 EPF DIVIDEND, EPF

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TheEquatorian
post Feb 13 2021, 07:24 PM

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QUOTE(ky33li @ Feb 13 2021, 07:02 PM)
So i take it you are supportive of restricting 100% withdrawal? Even if it means until your last breath that you will be left with tons of money and you dont get to use it?

I have no issue with the restriction of withdrawal but I am not sure how well is our funds being managed. Giving high dividends do not means the funds are well managed.
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No, I do not believe in any restrictions. The current restrictions for the fund is fine as it is but I think it will be introduced. Likely for amounts lower than a certain threshold which is what I think our neighbour has done.

It all depends on how vocal the members are. The i-Sinar debacle is proof of that.
TheEquatorian
post Feb 13 2021, 08:38 PM

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QUOTE(ky33li @ Feb 13 2021, 08:12 PM)
yeah i supposed so. Now it is like musical chair, whoever gets to withdraw first is the winner...it is highly reliant whether there is continuous incoming fund contributions or not.
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I am still quite optimistic of the prospects for EPF.

Malaysias demography is still good and the number of members will increase with them joining the employment. Policies need to be in place to support more FDI and job creation in Malaysia for this to happen. In terms of demography Malaysia looks better than most OECD countries where there will be more withdrawals than deposits.

Governance will always be an issue in Malaysia, I hope members are more vocal and can sway decisionmaking if anything opaque comes up.

I have no plans to withdraw unless they make major changes to the fund.
TheEquatorian
post Feb 13 2021, 09:06 PM

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QUOTE(yklooi @ Feb 13 2021, 08:42 PM)
hmm.gif how and what can be done?
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It’s a tough one. I think it can only happen through informing more members of what is happening and good awareness. I feel this forum does that quite well.

I am sure there are a few members of press and govt using these forums too..

TheEquatorian
post Feb 13 2021, 11:38 PM

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QUOTE(ky33li @ Feb 13 2021, 11:28 PM)
Actually Malaysia is not doing well in teems of FDI, we only attracted USD2.5billion last year. In fact I am more pessimistic about Malaysia's future and our country's rating had been downgraded once.

The world is transitioning into renewable energy and Malaysia is still not reacting swiftly to it, partly due to interest in oil and gas. But Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam attracted interests in developing technologies for EV. In fact multiple questions had been asked on Petronas on its renewable energy transition and some credit lines are granted based on that. Actually Petronas balance sheet only left with net cash of RM64bil 1H2020. Petronas paid RM54bil in FY2019. The golden goose is going to be left dry soon.

Who knows how much of the EPF monies had been utilised to support government initiatives?
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Only by Fitch, S&P and Moody’s still have Malaysia as single A. Many countries will get downgraded in the pandemic - schemes like i-Sinar allows the govt to pump funds into the economy without straining its own balance sheet.

I agree that there is too much focus on fossil fuels. Palm oil and LNG make up a big part of the export. They will be important in the future too. YBY had quite a big focus on renewable energy, I have fate in KJ also. Malaysia used to produce a lot of solar cells but that sector was plagued with a lot of bankcruptcies unless subsidized by govt.


TheEquatorian
post Feb 14 2021, 05:04 PM

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https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/300377

This guy still has som loyalists feeding him info. Hope they can manage to match last year’s dividend.
TheEquatorian
post Feb 15 2021, 06:10 PM

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QUOTE(ky33li @ Feb 15 2021, 05:36 PM)
It doesn’t seem like the right time to dispose property assets. However, I agree in that there is no reason to have so big EPF offices in city centre, too much capital employed in the buildings.

TheEquatorian
post Feb 17 2021, 05:12 PM

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It will be very interesting to see Q4 results and hear reasoning on dividend distribution if lower than 5%.
TheEquatorian
post Feb 21 2021, 07:53 AM

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Any speculation on why it likely will be announced on the current CEOs last day?
TheEquatorian
post Feb 21 2021, 02:36 PM

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QUOTE(contestchris @ Feb 21 2021, 02:27 PM)
Btw I don't see iSinar having a huge problem. If anything, it reduces the cash amount and may well generate higher returns per dollar as a result.
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The gap between the various groups in EPF will widen which is not healthy. I think few with 7 digit balances are using i-Sinar.
TheEquatorian
post Feb 21 2021, 03:10 PM

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QUOTE(backspace66 @ Feb 21 2021, 02:47 PM)
Sorry that doesnt make any sense as you can always take out any amount that exceed 1 million. Unless you have exactly around that amount than you can take 60k out of it.

Why wait for i-sinar? The best course of action is to take all amount on top of 1 million and apply i-sinar if still needed?
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My assumption is that the majority of those with 7 digits are not withdrawing. That is why the gap is widening with i-Sinar. Just based on how those in my circle think.
TheEquatorian
post Feb 21 2021, 03:13 PM

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QUOTE(TheEquatorian @ Feb 21 2021, 03:10 PM)
My assumption is that the majority of those with 7 digits are not withdrawing. That is why the gap is widening with i-Sinar. Just based on how those in my circle think.
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That’s also why a tiered system would lead to capital flight as I believe it will be the push for many of these people to withdraw.
TheEquatorian
post Feb 21 2021, 03:15 PM

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QUOTE(honsiong @ Feb 21 2021, 03:12 PM)
EPF can consider do like SIngapore CPF, cap the contribution at gross income of S$6000. So if your paycheck is above 6k no more employee + employer contributions on top.

When the fund gets big, they also become less agile and cannot generate good returns. Same things happened to big hedge funds and berkshire hathaway.

EPF should try to serve the B40 + M40, the T20 should spend their income gained or take higher risks in their investments.
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Do you mean T20 aren’t equal members?
TheEquatorian
post Feb 21 2021, 03:48 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Feb 21 2021, 03:33 PM)
It is important to understand that CPF money are invested in SSGS and the proceeds go to GIC together with SG's government surplus. CPF is not involved directly in the investment. And some more, the government's money is joined with the people's to invest together.

EPF on the other hand has to manage the money and invest themselves and even used to fund government's budget deficits.

Poor Malaysians lol
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Did anyone join the Jalil Rasheed session on fund management on clubhouse yesterday?

He discussed this and the changes he was trying to implement at PNB. Very interesting.
TheEquatorian
post Feb 21 2021, 04:12 PM

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QUOTE(honsiong @ Feb 21 2021, 03:53 PM)
Yeap, T20 doesn't need extra help. They should go spend and invest on their own.
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That is not how a superannuation fund works. But I think we are in disagreement here because we belong to different categories.

Most T20 have ample of spending and investing funds besides EPF. EPF is a contribution based on salary so I believe your philosophy is also geared towards higher taxes in Malaysia which I do not share.

This post has been edited by TheEquatorian: Feb 21 2021, 04:12 PM
TheEquatorian
post Feb 21 2021, 09:13 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Feb 21 2021, 09:05 PM)
Mind sharing the link to the session? I am not aware of any such session. 
2.5% p.a. is Ordinary Account's (popularly known as OA) return. Special Account (SA) and Medisave give 4% p.a. SA is the one mainly used for retirement savings. OA is mainly used to pay HDB flat.

There is a popular 1M65 movement in Singapore: https://blog.seedly.sg/1m65-1-million-by-65-cpf/ You can join their Discord channel to know more. Very active channel.

As for budget deficits, have a look at last year's budget 2021 government fiscal outlook: http://belanjawan2021.treasury.gov.my/index.php/en/tf-2021

Select Section 4: Debt management. Search "EPF" using your browser/PDF viewer's search function.

Look at 4.6 below. EPF accounts for 27% of outstanding government debt.

user posted image

Using the same search function, type "Employees"

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Have a look at this page too. https://www.intechopen.com/books/perspectiv...ebt-in-malaysia

Now, let's go to MOF Singapore and understand how they "fund" their budget.

First, have a look at Singapore's fiscal policy: https://www.mof.gov.sg/policies/fiscal

Next visit Q30 and Q31 in this page: https://www.mof.gov.sg/policies/reserves/is...ebt-obligations
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Sorry, I don’t think it is saved anywhere. They are live interactive sessions where you can ask questions too. He said that he would do it frequently.

TheEquatorian
post Feb 21 2021, 09:23 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Feb 21 2021, 09:00 PM)
your posts here in the EPF thread - CPF and this, seems to have a lot of assumptions. hedge funds i have no knowledge thus ok la, i defer to your expertise.

for the CPF one, honsiong & TOS has shared the reality
also - have U checked out SG's income tax % and their tiers?
please do google & check first before happily comparing SG with MY, else DKe happens (Dunning-Kruger effect)

for this - if U are an employer, to U, U pay employee's EPF or pay him/her cash salary - still staff expenses.
Thus, whether to pay directly to staff or staff's EPF - similar to employer. This is assuming taxes and whatnot isnt changed to allow such for T20's employer & employee.

So U think an employer wont pay out the 12% into salary instead to retain the T20 employee? T20 employees are paid that due to their experiences, skillsets and value to the employer.
So which why talking about FOC monthly? it is NOT FOC - it is a cost to employers, not a Harry Potter magic thinggy.

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Agreed, no such thing as FOC. It usually is part of your package. Up to 19% contribution by employers is quite common in certain sectors in Malaysia.

The retirement and social benefits portion paid by employers in Europe is well above 30% to put some perspective.

TheEquatorian
post Feb 25 2021, 12:32 PM

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https://www.thesundaily.my/local/positive-f...aging-DX6909360
TheEquatorian
post Feb 25 2021, 01:19 PM

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QUOTE(Human Nature @ Feb 25 2021, 01:14 PM)
If EPF is able to still churn out ~5% dividend at times when the pandemic is causing havoc, it bumps up my confidence level on EPF. Being a mainly FD player, taking out from EPF wouldn't do much good for me within this next couple of years. And the one thing now that would make we withdraw is the implementation of the rumored tiering, and that is for the purpose of descending me down to a lower tier.

There are mainly 3 general category of players when it comes to i-sinar - those that need to use the money and those that has a better investment vehicle will choose to withdraw; I fall under the third category, those that prefer to let the money grows. However, this people of the third category will quickly change its mind with the tiering system. So EPF better be careful.
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Same here. I even did a self contribution in January. I plan to withdraw everything in excess of the threshold if they announce a tier system.
TheEquatorian
post Feb 25 2021, 01:26 PM

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QUOTE(GrumpyNooby @ Feb 25 2021, 01:20 PM)
Alternatively can go for SSPN even though I'm doubtful on how they able to sustain a 4% dividend payout and distribute loyalty bonus or gift and occasionally do lucky draw or deposit campaigns.

If they're investing into MGS and MGII, none of those are yielding above 4%.
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I don’t think PTPTN is a viable fund, it needs capital injections from govt to survive. The repayment from its members is very low, quite embarrasing actually.

Their >4% dividend is an incentive for Malaysians to save more for education. It doesn’t make sense though since govt funds itself short term below 4% so why are they keeping it at that level. I think it is more likely for them to do a tier system since their dividend is a savings incentive (for education) but only up to a certain level.
TheEquatorian
post Feb 25 2021, 01:35 PM

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QUOTE(Barricade @ Feb 25 2021, 01:29 PM)
What happens if everyone move their FD funds to SSPN for the sake of getting higher interest? Can govt be able to fund the same 4% interest for 2021?  hmm.gif
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It’s hard to say how far they are willing to support it when the govt finances are strained, I am not very confident by how it is run. Definitely political, every time they try to push to get repaid for their outstanding loans there is some form of roadblock.

Not my kind of investment.

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