Ok wat.. paper trade build skill before you throw your money to the sharks....

Wah belum buat home work... i check further they even do fashion retailing and open coffee chain...

Ok tmrw got time will do some analysis....

Hmm how come you know when i buy 1?

My entry is slightly higher than that..

In-S&s FA review part 1

1. Profitability

Based on the multi year profitability, the profit has not been consistent having it ups and down for the past. The wild swings in EPS is due to investment holdings gains/loss. Recently the business is having a turnaround, in the IT, retailing, car rental and property business. It's stockbroking/money lending business is still not making any money.

However it's IT related business is showing a very good uptrend, and this will provide more consistent earning stability. Also trending up is it's retailing and car rental business. property business is beginning to show profit.

Current TTM13 EPS is about 13.6 cents.. indicating a PE of 7x. But some of the gains are due to investment holdings gain. In the last Quarter, a total of 49.15 mil gain consists of financial derivatives ( 8.6mil), unrealized forex gain (8 mil) and writeback on impairment of 15 mil.

If we disregard the one off gains and focus purely on ongoing business concern, the recurring EPS is expected to be about 37.6 mil per Q or 5.6 c. This will give a FY14 EPS of about 18-20 cents indicating a FY14 PE of 5x.

2. Balance Sheet

Balance sheet is healthy, but have unusually high amount of investment assets as in bonds, stocks and other financial derivatives (some of them associated companies, with <20% holding like ho hup etc)

It is currently holding about 551.4 mil in cash ans AFS assets vs 168.43 mil in loans, which makes the company having net cash of 383 mil BUT is primary held in it's subsidiaries (like Inari). This indicated a net cash per share of 57 cents per share indicating cash holding of 60% of market cap.

To be continue ...

Part 2

Free Cash flow

As expected, FCF is very low or non existent, since most of the financial gains are from financial derivatives arther than ongoing business.

Although the company has recently started to pay dividend, it is expected the FY14 dividend yield to be low at 1-2% DY and growth will be minimal. Expect FY14 DPS will be about 1.5-2 cents max.

Individual business review

Financial services & credit (M&A brokers and Insas Credit)
In the last Q, recorded a 14 mil external revenue and profit of 6 mil - showing very good margin, but overall this business is not stable with swings in profitability. In FY12, this division broke even.

Property investment & development
In last Q recorded revenue of 2 mil and loss of 800k. FY 12 is similar. This is due planned property development has not begun yet.

Investment holdings and trading
This business is very volatile with certain Q showing exceptional profit and other Q showing exceptional loss.
About 70 million is shares, of which 70% is traded in KLSE. Net cost to acquire these shares is about 97 mil, so it is showing a loss. Also holding 55 mil in bonds of which 90% is quoted outside of Malaysia, primary source of unrealized forex gain and stable interest income. Also holding 90 mil in associate companies traded in KLSE. This company also have an aggressive buy back but shares is indicated as 'investment' rather than treasury, also a great source of gains in last Q. This means they goreng invest in thier own shares for financial gains...

Retail trading and car rental (Dome cafe, Melium, Insas car rental)
Last Q revenue of 5.2mil and profit of 1.1 mil. FY12 showing 19,2 mil and profit of 6.2 mil. This is a stable business with good cash flows and good net margin.

IT related
This is the crown jewel and main contributor of stable consistent profits, last Q is 11 mil and FY12 is 15 mil, showing a very high YOY growth. This will be the driver for the entire stock valuation.

To be continue...

Part 3

Valuation - RNAV

Financial Services and credit
Asset : 389.3 Liability : 61.1
Valuation : 1 x BV = 328.2 mil

Property investment & development (Land bank)
Asset : 106 mil Liability : 19 mil
Revaluation surplus :44 mil
Valuation 1 x BV = 131 mil

Investment holding
At market value = 322 mil

Investment in associate company
At cost = 106 mil

Retail trading & rental
8x PE = 4.68 mil x 8 = 37.44 mil

IT & Tech
12x PE = 54 x 12 = 648 mil

RNAV = 1572 mil

Add cash = 363 mil

Minus borrowings = 133.2 mil

Total RNAV = 1,802 mil

RNAV/share = 2.68/share x 70% discount = 1.88/share

y so hiong? because KTL frying it with lardo.....

Already in @ 0.96

The main issue is the investment income & also the tech stock earnings.. if either one of these down...then the stock earnings will collapse.

You where got cincai hantam one... you are much smarter than you portray..

This post has been edited by gark: Dec 13 2013, 02:44 PM

in x-cess..

dont think for fast in fast out play.. need lost of time to realize the value 1...

finish type analysis.. then straight away press buy.

Cash on hand is 60% of total market cap too hard to resist...

This post has been edited by gark: Dec 13 2013, 03:42 PM

Well read the entire analysis... dont just shortcut to RNAV..

1st shot done... later if show more positive other shots will follow.

If not positive.. well it is still just a small amount of my holdings.

Insas 36% stake in Ini mari is already worth close to 400 mil...or 65 cents/share

When you plus 57 cents/share in AFS and cash.. you can see the value oozing out..

This post has been edited by gark: Dec 13 2013, 03:51 PM

Oh itu kayu stock.. i am thinking of analyzing deeper too... recent growth in PAT is very good.

No.. it's like buying ini mari at 50% discount...

1 % rise in ini mari's share price = 0.53% rise in &a& price..

Now you tell me ini mari price already rise by how many %?

ada.. if you continue read more.. i did analyze every segment PAT.

Well you have every right to be skeptical.. this is a volatile IT stock, not safe and nice dividend stock.

You need to constantly monitor it if there is any changes to it's subsidiaries earnings... Not a buy and forget stock..

I explain the buy back, they are investing in their own stock..

This post has been edited by gark: Dec 13 2013, 03:59 PM

aisey.. already want to check further since the last Q report.. on my watch list somemore.. well... too bad.

Ya due to investment gain / loss...