veri danger.. last time went up from 40 cents to 82 cents and drop back to 60 cents.. danger or not?

Bought some BBRI @ 6,800

Today JSX go crazy again drop almost 50 points.. cheap sale...

errrr.. ok lah can understand a bit bit...

so conclusion apa? mother catching up to son?

currency down kaw kaw...vs USD

Since i have some rupiah stash away at bank, might as well invest. If convert to RM now rugi a lot ooor..

This post has been edited by gark: Dec 16 2013, 01:04 PM

but.. bapak got many hidden $$$.. FOC one wor...



This post has been edited by gark: Dec 16 2013, 01:41 PM

Mirzan Mahathir...

Indon stock exchange index.. morning -50 points, before lunch -33 points now -47 points...

So volatile.. KTL should play here LOL...

This post has been edited by gark: Dec 16 2013, 02:43 PM

Well if you win 10k, you can name the dog after him..

traditional name for dog is Ah Wong.. so Ah B**n not too far off.

very kow meh? 5 sen only mah... probably lah.. CFO resign.. many ppl scared...

He want sure win counters..

Today not so good day..

ini mari yao drop
in&a& yao drop
WB yao drop
CB-Ip yap drop
Ah Sai yao drop

Losing my luck already de..



This post has been edited by gark: Dec 16 2013, 05:01 PM

KAYU

Overview...

KAYU's manufactures fiberboard and rubber wood board and RTA which it's main product. This industry segment has always been challenging and margins vary. The bulk of it's profit is from RTA (Ready to assemble) products, you typically find in hypermart and assemble yourself at home.

TTM : 22.8 EPS, TTM PE : 4.8x, TTM ROE : 9.3%, TTM PAT Margin : 5.5%, DY% : Insignificant, PBV : 0.45

Very high PBT growth over the last 3Q, despite overall revenue reduction from 100 mil to 86 mil. This can be explained via increase of margin from <3% to 6-7% in the latest quarter sales.

The expanded margin is however similar to 2009 and then the margin fell back to previous level 1-2 years after that. Will this latest margin expansion be sustainable? Upon checking in depth into the report for the source of margin expansion we found that almost 90% of the product is priced in USD and destined for export market. With the rise of USD, margins improve as cost is mostly in RM. Every 1% appreciation of USD/MYR will add approx 0.5-0.6 mil per Q of profit for KAYU.

Main export market is Japan (40%), followed by China and India. With recent depreciation of JPY, the products priced in USD will be less competitive and will probably hurt sales volume as evident in the latest Q where total revenue fell but margin improved. This will be a double edge sword as lower sales revenue might cause price reduction and hence hurting margin in the future.

Balance Sheet

Semi-healthy balance sheet with 19 mil cash on hand but with 114 million borrowings. Most of the equity is locked up under PPE.

Cash flow is very healthy as PPE depreciation is higher than net profit. That coupled with low capex expenditures, provide KAYU with very healthy cash flow. FCF is estimated to be at least 20-24 cents/share. This is significant as the P/FCF is only 4x-5x.

Although it has an approximately 45% portion of the loan in USD, the majority of earning in USD will negate forex risk of the loan. 90% of trade receivable is in USD. Almost 100% of trade payable in RM.

Others, Conclusion

Warrant is currently priced at 47 cents and ex price is RM1, hence a 33.6% premium to mother share. Too high premium for limited gains.

IF the USD is to remain strong, KAYU should be able to maintain a reasonable good margin. Estimated FY13 EPS to be 20 cents/share with FCF of 25 cents/share. But if the USD is to weaken against RM, it's margin will shrink and have to declare forex loss on it's unrealized forex gain of 2.2 mil. Pegging a PE 8x for a slow/no growth industry will bring the fair value to RM 1.60.

This post has been edited by gark: Dec 16 2013, 08:53 PM

Depreciation is hidden earnings.. almost no one will see it.. all focus on eps.

Should have done this analysis earlier...

TA wise can still go boh?

This post has been edited by gark: Dec 16 2013, 10:13 PM

Ask ah boon....

If i done my analysis earlier mah no scare jor...

Probably wont taper.... 2q 2014 maybe...

Now on mobile internet... later only dl...

Ahem waiting comment from ta sifu boon....