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 Air Asia X : IPO, Air Asia X

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ncm1903
post Nov 2 2012, 11:19 AM

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tq gark

wonder what is the price..........
sarbuftaim
post Nov 2 2012, 11:28 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Nov 2 2012, 10:57 AM)
AAX Summary... for the benefit of forumers

Fixed Asset = 2.16 billion (including 700 mil in tax asset and deposits)
Current Asset = 224 mil (only 24 mil cash)
Current liability = 953 mil (including 464 mil short term borrowing)
Non-Current liability = 917 mil long term borrowing
NTA = RM 0.35/share
Debt/Equity Ratio = 3.61  sweat.gif

2009 EPS = RM 0.66/share
2010 EPS = RM 0.63/share
2011 EPS = RM -0.36/share
2012 EPS (Proforma) = RM -0.22/share

2009 and 2010 gain is mostly in deferred taxation.. and not based on performance

Operational Profit/loss

2009 = LOSS RM 31 mil
2010 = PROFIT RM 7 mil
2011 = LOSS 60 mil
2012 (proforma) = Loss 10 mil

Now looking at how much future profit AAX can make

Gross Margin

2009 = 3.4%
2010 = 12.7%
2011 = 9%
2012 = 15.4%

Please note that revenue growth has been more or less stagnant in 2011 to 2012.
2009 = 8 planes
2010= 11 planes
2011 = 11 planes
2012 = 9 planes ( doh.gif ) , 2 plane classified as asset for sale wink.gif
Future = 2 more plane on order

Revenue per ASK is stagnant 2009-2012, cost per ASK also stagnant 2009-2012, basically cost of fuel is countered by fuel surcharge...

Now lets see what the pricing/share will be  laugh.gif
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Thank you gark. Great Effort. smile.gif
river.sand
post Nov 2 2012, 11:42 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Nov 2 2012, 10:57 AM)
AAX Summary... for the benefit of forumers

Fixed Asset = 2.16 billion (including 700 mil in tax asset and deposits)
Current Asset = 224 mil (only 24 mil cash)
Current liability = 953 mil (including 464 mil short term borrowing)
Non-Current liability = 917 mil long term borrowing
NTA = RM 0.35/share
Debt/Equity Ratio = 3.61  sweat.gif
How do you get work out the Debt/Equity to be 3.61?

On page 256 of the prospectus:
Total borrowings = 1382 million
Shareholders' equity = 518 million

=> Debt/Equity = 2.67

D/E above 2.0 is common among airlines, I think...

gark
post Nov 2 2012, 12:04 PM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Nov 2 2012, 11:42 AM)
How do you get work out the Debt/Equity to be 3.61?

On page 256 of the prospectus:
Total borrowings = 1382 million
Shareholders' equity = 518 million

=> Debt/Equity = 2.67

D/E above 2.0 is common among airlines, I think...
*
QUOTE
Definition of 'Debt/Equity Ratio'

A measure of a company's financial leverage calculated by dividing its total liabilities by stockholders' equity. It indicates what proportion of equity and debt the company is using to finance its assets.



Debt equity ratio = (current liability +non-current liability)/equity = (953 mil+917 mil)/518 mil = 3.61 ohmy.gif

No D/E ratio above 2 is not common in airlines... wink.gif AA already super leveraged D/E ratio is only 1.95 whistling.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Nov 2 2012, 12:09 PM
GHz
post Nov 2 2012, 12:09 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Nov 2 2012, 10:57 AM)
AAX Summary... for the benefit of forumers

Fixed Asset = 2.16 billion (including 700 mil in tax asset and deposits)
Current Asset = 224 mil (only 24 mil cash)
Current liability = 953 mil (including 464 mil short term borrowing)
Non-Current liability = 917 mil long term borrowing
NTA = RM 0.35/share
Debt/Equity Ratio = 3.61  sweat.gif

2009 EPS = RM 0.66/share
2010 EPS = RM 0.63/share
2011 EPS = RM -0.36/share
2012 EPS (Proforma) = RM -0.22/share

2009 and 2010 gain is mostly in deferred taxation.. and not based on performance

Operational Profit/loss

2009 = LOSS RM 31 mil
2010 = PROFIT RM 7 mil
2011 = LOSS 60 mil
2012 (proforma) = Loss 10 mil

Now looking at how much future profit AAX can make

Gross Margin

2009 = 3.4%
2010 = 12.7%
2011 = 9%
2012 = 15.4%

Please note that revenue growth has been more or less stagnant in 2011 to 2012.
2009 = 8 planes
2010= 11 planes
2011 = 11 planes
2012 = 9 planes ( doh.gif ) , 2 plane classified as asset for sale wink.gif
Future = 2 more plane on order

Revenue per ASK is stagnant 2009-2012, cost per ASK also stagnant 2009-2012, basically cost of fuel is countered by fuel surcharge...

Now lets see what the pricing/share will be  laugh.gif
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I think fuel surcharge does not enough to cover for fuel cost increase.

If look at how much they collect fuel surcharge in 2011, it is only 44 million.

On the other hand fuel cost increase by 421million from 2010 to 2011. From 597million to 1,018 million.

Yes they maybe fly more as we can see the increase in revenue but revenue increase only 42% compare to fuel cost increase by 70% in the same period
gark
post Nov 2 2012, 12:17 PM

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QUOTE(GHz @ Nov 2 2012, 12:09 PM)
I think fuel surcharge does not enough to cover for fuel cost increase.

If look at how much they collect fuel surcharge in 2011, it is only 44 million.

On the other hand fuel cost increase by 421million from 2010 to 2011. From 597million to 1,018 million.

Yes they maybe fly more as we can see the increase in revenue but revenue increase only 42% compare to fuel cost increase by 70% in the same period
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Yes you are right.. but we have to see the overall picture.. thats is why we commonly see the ASK cost.
ASK = Available Seat Kilometer, means total cost or revenue divided by number of seats and km traveled.

If you see this the cost increase in fuel has been countered by lowering the non-fuel ASK cost, it means they are using other method to counter rising fuel cost such as shorter haul flights and/or higher frequency flights. laugh.gif In maintaining ASK even though fuel cost is up, AAX is doing a great job... wink.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Nov 2 2012, 12:18 PM
ncm1903
post Nov 2 2012, 12:47 PM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Nov 2 2012, 10:44 AM)
I belive this is much better than ASTERUK

Look at total shares for PUBLIC ballot, its just 9% (71million shares out of 789 million shares)

MITI = 33% of total shares.
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only 9% for public means major players of this share are cornerstones right?

thus it is important to know who they are and if there is any lock up period.
river.sand
post Nov 2 2012, 12:50 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Nov 2 2012, 12:04 PM)
Debt equity ratio = (current liability +non-current liability)/equity = (953 mil+917 mil)/518 mil = 3.61  ohmy.gif

No D/E ratio above 2 is not common in airlines... wink.gif AA already super leveraged D/E ratio is only 1.95  whistling.gif
*
Oh, there are several definitions for D/E. I often use the following two laugh.gif

D/E = (long term borrowings)/equity
D/E = (long term borrowings + short term borrowings)/equity

AA's D/E used to be higher, but they have progressively reduced it hmm.gif

This post has been edited by river.sand: Nov 2 2012, 12:51 PM
GHz
post Nov 2 2012, 02:54 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Nov 2 2012, 12:17 PM)
Yes you are right.. but we have to see the overall picture.. thats is why we commonly see the ASK cost.
ASK = Available Seat Kilometer, means total cost or revenue divided by number of seats and km traveled.

If you see this the cost increase in fuel has been countered by lowering the non-fuel ASK cost, it means they are using other method to counter rising fuel cost such as shorter haul flights and/or higher frequency flights. laugh.gif In maintaining ASK even though fuel cost is up, AAX is doing a great job... wink.gif
*
If like that, why they are in red in 2011 & 2012 ?
gark
post Nov 2 2012, 03:00 PM

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QUOTE(GHz @ Nov 2 2012, 02:54 PM)
If like that, why they are in red in 2011 & 2012 ?
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cause ... price < cost tongue.gif All those cheap flight offer they advertise all rugi one... laugh.gif
GHz
post Nov 2 2012, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Nov 2 2012, 03:00 PM)
cause ... price < cost  tongue.gif All those cheap flight offer they advertise all rugi one... laugh.gif
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LOL rclxub.gif rclxub.gif .

That's very bad management. Advertise cheap flight until company losing money for years.
river.sand
post Nov 2 2012, 03:16 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Nov 2 2012, 12:17 PM)
If you see this the cost increase in fuel has been countered by lowering the non-fuel ASK cost, it means they are using other method to counter rising fuel cost such as shorter haul flights and/or higher frequency flights. laugh.gif In maintaining ASK even though fuel cost is up, AAX is doing a great job... wink.gif
*
For long haul flights, the fuel tank of the aircraft has to be loaded up. But here is the problem: Jet fuel add to the weight of the aircraft, which in turn affects fuel economy.

SIA is also going to shelved its non-stop flights to LAX and New York.

This post has been edited by river.sand: Nov 2 2012, 03:24 PM
zitis
post Nov 2 2012, 03:16 PM

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QUOTE(GHz @ Nov 2 2012, 03:12 PM)
LOL rclxub.gif  rclxub.gif .

That's very bad management. Advertise cheap flight until company losing money for years.
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Thats why they want to be listed A.S.A.P..... So they can use our money to cover those red zone..

Easy and fast way to collect monies...

This post has been edited by zitis: Nov 2 2012, 03:22 PM
htt
post Nov 2 2012, 03:24 PM

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QUOTE(GHz @ Nov 2 2012, 03:12 PM)
LOL rclxub.gif  rclxub.gif .

That's very bad management. Advertise cheap flight until company losing money for years.
*
I think they mentioned something like the London & Paris routes were losing money (they stopped that), but their Aussie routes are good, maybe China/ India one also, maybe should look into quarterly result for any sign of turnaround, I prefer not to study until the full prospectus is out... cannot subscribe until then anyway... yawn.gif Buy or no buy all depends on the fundamental and prospective of the company and price of the issue...

Another thing to watch is their auxiliary income aka baggage and food and drink, not many ppl can tahan a few hours flight without drink, and food if longer route...
masterjedi
post Nov 2 2012, 03:25 PM

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QUOTE(zitis @ Nov 2 2012, 03:16 PM)
Thats why they want to be listed A.S.A.P..... So they can use our money to cover those red zone..

Easy and fast way to collect monies...
*
zitis, u betul ke skip kali ini?
zitis
post Nov 2 2012, 03:27 PM

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QUOTE(masterjedi @ Nov 2 2012, 03:25 PM)
zitis, u betul ke skip kali ini?
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Yup! Betul-betul skip.... X main-main. smile.gif
zitis
post Nov 2 2012, 03:44 PM

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GLC wont support this counter coz they hv Malindo now to fight with AA and AAX...

TF make big mistake when they moved out to Indonesia, now shifted back to Malaysia.... Najib not happy with him at the moment... Who going to support this counter? Anandeyy?....
sarbuftaim
post Nov 2 2012, 03:46 PM

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QUOTE(zitis @ Nov 2 2012, 03:27 PM)
Yup! Betul-betul skip.... X main-main.  smile.gif
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Saya pun.
fiqir
post Nov 2 2012, 04:02 PM

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me depends on price offer. if they offer price like astroo ipo. sorry, i skip this.
sarbuftaim
post Nov 2 2012, 04:13 PM

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Though we are ikan bilis but collectively we are supporting the tycoons in their listings. They need our money to support their business. In return...should it be a win - win situation?

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