tq gark
wonder what is the price..........
Air Asia X : IPO, Air Asia X
Air Asia X : IPO, Air Asia X
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Nov 2 2012, 11:19 AM
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Junior Member
145 posts Joined: Apr 2010 |
tq gark
wonder what is the price.......... |
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Nov 2 2012, 11:28 AM
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Junior Member
197 posts Joined: Aug 2012 |
QUOTE(gark @ Nov 2 2012, 10:57 AM) AAX Summary... for the benefit of forumers Thank you gark. Great Effort. Fixed Asset = 2.16 billion (including 700 mil in tax asset and deposits) Current Asset = 224 mil (only 24 mil cash) Current liability = 953 mil (including 464 mil short term borrowing) Non-Current liability = 917 mil long term borrowing NTA = RM 0.35/share Debt/Equity Ratio = 3.61 2009 EPS = RM 0.66/share 2010 EPS = RM 0.63/share 2011 EPS = RM -0.36/share 2012 EPS (Proforma) = RM -0.22/share 2009 and 2010 gain is mostly in deferred taxation.. and not based on performance Operational Profit/loss 2009 = LOSS RM 31 mil 2010 = PROFIT RM 7 mil 2011 = LOSS 60 mil 2012 (proforma) = Loss 10 mil Now looking at how much future profit AAX can make Gross Margin 2009 = 3.4% 2010 = 12.7% 2011 = 9% 2012 = 15.4% Please note that revenue growth has been more or less stagnant in 2011 to 2012. 2009 = 8 planes 2010= 11 planes 2011 = 11 planes 2012 = 9 planes ( Future = 2 more plane on order Revenue per ASK is stagnant 2009-2012, cost per ASK also stagnant 2009-2012, basically cost of fuel is countered by fuel surcharge... Now lets see what the pricing/share will be |
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Nov 2 2012, 11:42 AM
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Senior Member
3,816 posts Joined: Feb 2012 |
QUOTE(gark @ Nov 2 2012, 10:57 AM) AAX Summary... for the benefit of forumers How do you get work out the Debt/Equity to be 3.61?Fixed Asset = 2.16 billion (including 700 mil in tax asset and deposits) Current Asset = 224 mil (only 24 mil cash) Current liability = 953 mil (including 464 mil short term borrowing) Non-Current liability = 917 mil long term borrowing NTA = RM 0.35/share Debt/Equity Ratio = 3.61 On page 256 of the prospectus: Total borrowings = 1382 million Shareholders' equity = 518 million => Debt/Equity = 2.67 D/E above 2.0 is common among airlines, I think... |
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Nov 2 2012, 12:04 PM
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Senior Member
12,534 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia.... |
QUOTE(river.sand @ Nov 2 2012, 11:42 AM) How do you get work out the Debt/Equity to be 3.61? On page 256 of the prospectus: Total borrowings = 1382 million Shareholders' equity = 518 million => Debt/Equity = 2.67 D/E above 2.0 is common among airlines, I think... QUOTE Definition of 'Debt/Equity Ratio' A measure of a company's financial leverage calculated by dividing its total liabilities by stockholders' equity. It indicates what proportion of equity and debt the company is using to finance its assets. Debt equity ratio = (current liability +non-current liability)/equity = (953 mil+917 mil)/518 mil = 3.61 No D/E ratio above 2 is not common in airlines... This post has been edited by gark: Nov 2 2012, 12:09 PM |
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Nov 2 2012, 12:09 PM
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Senior Member
1,139 posts Joined: Nov 2008 |
QUOTE(gark @ Nov 2 2012, 10:57 AM) AAX Summary... for the benefit of forumers I think fuel surcharge does not enough to cover for fuel cost increase. Fixed Asset = 2.16 billion (including 700 mil in tax asset and deposits) Current Asset = 224 mil (only 24 mil cash) Current liability = 953 mil (including 464 mil short term borrowing) Non-Current liability = 917 mil long term borrowing NTA = RM 0.35/share Debt/Equity Ratio = 3.61 2009 EPS = RM 0.66/share 2010 EPS = RM 0.63/share 2011 EPS = RM -0.36/share 2012 EPS (Proforma) = RM -0.22/share 2009 and 2010 gain is mostly in deferred taxation.. and not based on performance Operational Profit/loss 2009 = LOSS RM 31 mil 2010 = PROFIT RM 7 mil 2011 = LOSS 60 mil 2012 (proforma) = Loss 10 mil Now looking at how much future profit AAX can make Gross Margin 2009 = 3.4% 2010 = 12.7% 2011 = 9% 2012 = 15.4% Please note that revenue growth has been more or less stagnant in 2011 to 2012. 2009 = 8 planes 2010= 11 planes 2011 = 11 planes 2012 = 9 planes ( Future = 2 more plane on order Revenue per ASK is stagnant 2009-2012, cost per ASK also stagnant 2009-2012, basically cost of fuel is countered by fuel surcharge... Now lets see what the pricing/share will be If look at how much they collect fuel surcharge in 2011, it is only 44 million. On the other hand fuel cost increase by 421million from 2010 to 2011. From 597million to 1,018 million. Yes they maybe fly more as we can see the increase in revenue but revenue increase only 42% compare to fuel cost increase by 70% in the same period |
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Nov 2 2012, 12:17 PM
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Senior Member
12,534 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia.... |
QUOTE(GHz @ Nov 2 2012, 12:09 PM) I think fuel surcharge does not enough to cover for fuel cost increase. Yes you are right.. but we have to see the overall picture.. thats is why we commonly see the ASK cost. If look at how much they collect fuel surcharge in 2011, it is only 44 million. On the other hand fuel cost increase by 421million from 2010 to 2011. From 597million to 1,018 million. Yes they maybe fly more as we can see the increase in revenue but revenue increase only 42% compare to fuel cost increase by 70% in the same period ASK = Available Seat Kilometer, means total cost or revenue divided by number of seats and km traveled. If you see this the cost increase in fuel has been countered by lowering the non-fuel ASK cost, it means they are using other method to counter rising fuel cost such as shorter haul flights and/or higher frequency flights. This post has been edited by gark: Nov 2 2012, 12:18 PM |
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Nov 2 2012, 12:47 PM
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Junior Member
145 posts Joined: Apr 2010 |
QUOTE(zamans98 @ Nov 2 2012, 10:44 AM) I belive this is much better than ASTERUK only 9% for public means major players of this share are cornerstones right?Look at total shares for PUBLIC ballot, its just 9% (71million shares out of 789 million shares) MITI = 33% of total shares. thus it is important to know who they are and if there is any lock up period. |
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Nov 2 2012, 12:50 PM
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Senior Member
3,816 posts Joined: Feb 2012 |
QUOTE(gark @ Nov 2 2012, 12:04 PM) Debt equity ratio = (current liability +non-current liability)/equity = (953 mil+917 mil)/518 mil = 3.61 Oh, there are several definitions for D/E. I often use the following two No D/E ratio above 2 is not common in airlines... D/E = (long term borrowings)/equity D/E = (long term borrowings + short term borrowings)/equity AA's D/E used to be higher, but they have progressively reduced it This post has been edited by river.sand: Nov 2 2012, 12:51 PM |
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Nov 2 2012, 02:54 PM
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Senior Member
1,139 posts Joined: Nov 2008 |
QUOTE(gark @ Nov 2 2012, 12:17 PM) Yes you are right.. but we have to see the overall picture.. thats is why we commonly see the ASK cost. If like that, why they are in red in 2011 & 2012 ?ASK = Available Seat Kilometer, means total cost or revenue divided by number of seats and km traveled. If you see this the cost increase in fuel has been countered by lowering the non-fuel ASK cost, it means they are using other method to counter rising fuel cost such as shorter haul flights and/or higher frequency flights. |
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Nov 2 2012, 03:00 PM
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Senior Member
12,534 posts Joined: Mar 2009 From: Penang, KL, China, Indonesia.... |
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Nov 2 2012, 03:12 PM
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Senior Member
1,139 posts Joined: Nov 2008 |
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Nov 2 2012, 03:16 PM
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Senior Member
3,816 posts Joined: Feb 2012 |
QUOTE(gark @ Nov 2 2012, 12:17 PM) If you see this the cost increase in fuel has been countered by lowering the non-fuel ASK cost, it means they are using other method to counter rising fuel cost such as shorter haul flights and/or higher frequency flights. For long haul flights, the fuel tank of the aircraft has to be loaded up. But here is the problem: Jet fuel add to the weight of the aircraft, which in turn affects fuel economy.SIA is also going to shelved its non-stop flights to LAX and New York. This post has been edited by river.sand: Nov 2 2012, 03:24 PM |
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Nov 2 2012, 03:16 PM
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Senior Member
1,219 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
QUOTE(GHz @ Nov 2 2012, 03:12 PM) Thats why they want to be listed A.S.A.P..... So they can use our money to cover those red zone..Easy and fast way to collect monies... This post has been edited by zitis: Nov 2 2012, 03:22 PM |
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Nov 2 2012, 03:24 PM
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Senior Member
4,305 posts Joined: Sep 2008 |
QUOTE(GHz @ Nov 2 2012, 03:12 PM) I think they mentioned something like the London & Paris routes were losing money (they stopped that), but their Aussie routes are good, maybe China/ India one also, maybe should look into quarterly result for any sign of turnaround, I prefer not to study until the full prospectus is out... cannot subscribe until then anyway... Another thing to watch is their auxiliary income aka baggage and food and drink, not many ppl can tahan a few hours flight without drink, and food if longer route... |
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Nov 2 2012, 03:25 PM
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Senior Member
712 posts Joined: Apr 2009 |
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Nov 2 2012, 03:27 PM
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Senior Member
1,219 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
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Nov 2 2012, 03:44 PM
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Senior Member
1,219 posts Joined: Nov 2010 |
GLC wont support this counter coz they hv Malindo now to fight with AA and AAX...
TF make big mistake when they moved out to Indonesia, now shifted back to Malaysia.... Najib not happy with him at the moment... Who going to support this counter? Anandeyy?.... |
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Nov 2 2012, 03:46 PM
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Junior Member
197 posts Joined: Aug 2012 |
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Nov 2 2012, 04:02 PM
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Senior Member
3,810 posts Joined: Jan 2006 |
me depends on price offer. if they offer price like astroo ipo. sorry, i skip this.
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Nov 2 2012, 04:13 PM
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Junior Member
197 posts Joined: Aug 2012 |
Though we are ikan bilis but collectively we are supporting the tycoons in their listings. They need our money to support their business. In return...should it be a win - win situation?
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