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 Singapore REITS, S-REITS

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AVFAN
post Nov 17 2016, 10:22 AM

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us 10 yr declined below 2.2%.

reit prices recovering.

major retail suntec and capmall lead the way!
AVFAN
post Nov 17 2016, 06:59 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 17 2016, 06:20 PM)
Yes,.. I must agree that need to wait till next year to get the divvy,... but,.. if you read the latest news, you will see that this REIT is currently trading at a discount. The nav has seen grown from 0.78 to 0.84, and the REIT is still trading at 0.81 and 0.815 now. Barring any other unforeseen negative events, as time goes nearer to divvy payout date, the price will escalate,... Hence, my opinion of buying-up now.

Besides, I have very limited instruments to invest my USD into (I still hold quite some USDs), and this vehicle is one that I am of the opinion is worthwhile.

The dpu has indeed been declared as has been officially calculated and generated, its only that it has not been paid out to the unitholder yet. The manager is waiting for the final three months of this year's dpu, and then they will pay out together : this 2.01 Cts and the final dpu from October till December 2016.

Well,... with Mr Trump up there,.. this REIT should do well,...
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i am just thinking...

there must be like 100,000 buildings in USA, which ones are good and not so good?

this Manulife has 3 buildings - 1 in la, 1 in irvine and 1 in atlanta.

how do u evaluate US reits?
AVFAN
post Nov 17 2016, 07:39 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 17 2016, 07:28 PM)
Same method as for SG Office REITs,...most impt is outlook methodology,...
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SG is one city, can say same all over.

USA is a big country - fed, state, city taxes, investment incentives, etc.

do u get into those details by region, county, etc.?

i ask becos i struggled when trying to buy US reits themselves...
AVFAN
post Nov 17 2016, 08:10 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 17 2016, 07:54 PM)
If the county is big,.. I go into the county,..generally, the basic principles remain for that county, and matched against the development activities,... a bit like evaluating for Australia. But US is definitely more dynamic tan Australia.

With Trump, the vibrancy will get even better.

Err,... I think we should be more concerned if the Ringgit can recover now, or the world may not want to exchange the Ringgit with us anymore,...than our Ringgit will be worthless, can't buy anything anymore. Not only cheap, but worthless, close to being banana notes,...
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ok, thanks.

RM..? bad news thru n thru.

those holding USD may be in for an even better ride in the next yr or 2.

parity with euro is becoming a reality while china RMB likely to devalue further (RM will follow).

so... gold to USD, silver to SGD.

well... actually, gold belongs to YEN.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 17 2016, 08:11 PM
AVFAN
post Nov 18 2016, 10:33 AM

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careful now...

yellen latest comment = fed rate hike imminent on dec 14.

us 10 yr bond yield rising again, 2.33%.



AVFAN
post Nov 18 2016, 11:04 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 18 2016, 10:53 AM)
Bro AV,... why careful now ? Looking at the current events, exchanging now would be the right and prudent move, don't you think so ?
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i mean buying reits.

buying SGD, ok.
AVFAN
post Nov 18 2016, 02:00 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Nov 18 2016, 01:20 PM)
but then.. BRO AV says tunggu Dec wor...
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i will watch dec 13-15.

everyone'e expecting fed to hike.

if it happens, all has been discounted, no surprise, bond yields should stabilize.

if against all odds, no hike or hike more than expected, there will be frenzy and chaos!


note USD appr vs SGD now, 1.427.

if conditions are such, may be advantageous to use usd/sgd cross-rate to buy sgreits then.
AVFAN
post Nov 18 2016, 07:08 PM

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QUOTE(mopster @ Nov 18 2016, 07:03 PM)
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/i...singapore-reits

rather brief... maybe the actual CSuisse paper will have more info..
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these 2 are the BIGGEST risks.

buy slowing, be patient. good things come to those who wait. tongue.gif


“Stock prices could easily overshoot previous troughs if the sell-off in bonds proves to be more severe than anticipated,” says Siva.

In addition, the analyst adds that corporate fundamentals could be worse in Singapore, with falling property prices and rising vacancy rates.

AVFAN
post Nov 21 2016, 02:53 PM

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US bond yields rising again.

No need to rush buying reits until it settles, maybe after fed hike dec 14.

AVFAN
post Nov 23 2016, 10:07 PM

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careful...

$ continues to spike.

$ index at level not seen since 2003

us bond yield approaching 2.4%.

$/Euro 1.05.

REIT prices will continue to fall.

AVFAN
post Nov 24 2016, 05:46 PM

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QUOTE(prince_mk @ Nov 24 2016, 04:07 PM)
Why the reits prices keep falling?
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I thought u already understood the relationship between reits, bonds and interest rates?
AVFAN
post Nov 25 2016, 01:20 PM

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be cautious...

QUOTE
Is Singapore's economy headed for a technical recession?
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/23/is-singapor...-recession.html

UPDATE 2-Singapore Q3 GDP contraction, weak exports reinforce recession risk
http://www.reuters.com/article/singapore-e...p-idUSL4N1DJ2JZ

AVFAN
post Nov 25 2016, 05:59 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Nov 25 2016, 03:59 PM)
today bought a bit... aimsamp 1.25...
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with a tech recession looming, i am concerned how well industrials will do in the next year.

the oil/marine/industrial sector may get weaker. more debt = less profit.

QUOTE
Singapore to Give Loans to Help Struggling Oil-Linked Companies
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...inked-companies


yes, it may be a great time to buy as prices drop but gotta to watchful if/when the DPU will start to fall.
AVFAN
post Nov 25 2016, 08:21 PM

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QUOTE(prince_mk @ Nov 25 2016, 08:00 PM)
what should we do ?

can we start accumulating some good reits counters for long term ? I m also scare and worry.

any advise as I planned to buy in near future.  hmm.gif
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I am of the view the variables have intensified.

As my bullets are not limitless, i rather take a conservative view.

Just wait n see what happens, dun rush.

I like to average up, not average down. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Nov 28 2016, 09:21 AM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Nov 28 2016, 08:34 AM)
i bought a bit 1.25.

AVFAN says wait for FED news first..

but see how la. if dipped further.

I think RENTAL COLLECTION should remain the same 2017.
but increase Interest..the div payout should be less..

but I am still O.K above 6%
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things are still unsettled but may be getting there.

just wait dec 14 move, wait for next trump big move, see how market takes it.

us bond yields may not stop with 2.3x%, may rise further.

that will continue to put pressure on all REITS.

moreover, SG may head for a technical recession.

no rush to buy REITS, imo.

currencies... maybe buy more SGD! tongue.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 28 2016, 08:47 PM
AVFAN
post Nov 28 2016, 10:49 AM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Nov 28 2016, 10:12 AM)
http://fifthperson.com/the-retail-steamrol...f9ce26b20f58955
CapitaLand Mall Trust,
Starhill Global REIT and
Fraser Centrepoint Trust,
Starhill only 2 Outlet in Singapore...
whereas
CMT's 16 shopping malls
so, what action should we take huh?
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makes sense, it is happening everywhere.
i am planning to trim some starhill when price improve a bit.

QUOTE(prince_mk @ Nov 28 2016, 10:46 AM)
Capitaland Mall as strongly suggested by some sifu here.

I m also into this very much.
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things may be changing... but CapMall will still be the strongest of them all.
still, best not to hold too much of any traditional retail.
AVFAN
post Nov 28 2016, 11:17 AM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Nov 28 2016, 11:07 AM)
i also plan to trim STARHILL move to KEPPEL DC?
or MANULIFE USD?
or
JAPAN? croesus ?  Shopping centre also leh...
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i hv enuf kdc.

will likely go for capcomm.

or revert to RM if exchange rate hits 3.20.

AVFAN
post Nov 29 2016, 10:16 AM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Nov 28 2016, 11:07 AM)
i also plan to trim STARHILL move to KEPPEL DC?
*
trimming starhill today.

keep some cash + dividends coming in this week.

see what comes next!




AVFAN
post Nov 29 2016, 12:33 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Nov 29 2016, 12:16 PM)
Technically its really Sell SGD and change to RM.

afterall RM is super undervalue RIGHT?

We are all looking at PAPER GAIN in forex only. Shiok sendiri only.

However problem is, I do  not want to port back funds to RM just yet.
So, still need to find counters that give me dividend.. and hopefully some Cap appreciation
and not huge Cap losses....
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Hard to say undervalue or still overvalue.

If need RM to spend, can convert anytime.

If investing, better keep in SGD.

Int rates and emerging market currencies and oil prices are still embattled.
AVFAN
post Nov 30 2016, 10:36 AM

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us bond yield dropped <2.3%.

sgreit prices improve.

sold all starhill global, bye! tongue.gif



sgd/myr touched 3.146 just now, all time high.

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