BAT up >Rm1

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Added on September 6, 2012, 4:22 pmLong overdueee...

This post has been edited by cherroy: Sep 6 2012, 04:22 PM

Last time, all overseas market red red time, KLCI still green green even charging all time high.
Now become a reverse trend...

QE3 may send another inflation to raw materials price and commodities.
So if the company cannot pass the cost to the consumer, then yes, margin may be squeezed.

I do not know palm oil, sugar is a price controlled item in China?

Hibernating shark smell blood, and wake up...

I wonder whether the ECB bond buying programme that result in huge market bull will last or not.

I still do not quite understand how to "sterilise" the money of bond buying.

Unlimited purchase?
Wow, means country can still continue issue bond to fund the budget deficit?
After all ECB will buy?
Like a open "water tap" that unlimited?

According to media article, I still do not understand sterilised bond buying programme that stated no increase in money supply.
So without printing new money, where ECB get those money to buy?
Bare in mind, we may be talking in ten to hundred billion in figure.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-05/e...ond-buying.html

As far as I know, bond buying is not going to solve continously serious budget deficit issue, it just temporarily solve funding or refinancing of matured bond at lower rate, instead at unsustainable interest rate.

Just like Ben cannot solve US high deficit issue through QE.

Chinese RMB may have its own problem eg. economy slowdown, inflationary pressure, real estate problem.

Bare in mind, China economy has never a recession since its booming, and economy system, leverage problem/issue has never being "tested" during a recession.
We know, an economy is impossible to be booming non-stop and without a recession over the long term.

Although China economy and RMB future look rosy and promising, RMB is not (or yet) an worldwide international settlement currency. A lot of world trade out there still USD settlement domination.

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Added on September 10, 2012, 10:33 amI heard a lot of promising speak/talk from UT selling agent during China stock market booming time, as well as lot of China related UT launching around 2007, that China is the next world economy power, so they said good to invest in China related stock/stock market, bright future, blar blar, then the rest is history.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Sep 10 2012, 10:34 AM

Wah, unlimited until job outlook improves?

If job outlook doesn't improve, the all bond and asset being bought by Fed?
Trillions QE?
Like that Fed own most of the world bond/asset?

In the form force money nowhere to hide?

Buy the bonds, those bond seller get the money, as well as pushing down bond rate, make rate across downwards. Even cheaper for borrowing cost.
In other word more money in the economy.

Flood the market with money, and hope the money running wild and do the wonder.
More money, can do more investment. More investment -> more economy activities.
More money can lead to inflation as well
Inflation - people may rush to buy commodities and goods, as tomorrow goods may be more expensive. So good to business, spur the economy.
Just like property market is active, when house price is going up.

But all may at the expense of inflationary, aka savers and pensioners that had hard-earned and hard saved money, become worthless than yesterday.

Sadly to save, no reward to savers but instead may be punished for their good behaviour. (savers let banks earn tons of profit through deposit, savers adopt sound self financial controlled that prevent financial situation as a whole become a mess).

This is a strange world we are living now.

Gold "explodes" to the upside, DJ and S&P 500 are not far away from its all time high.
Oil is going up too.

So, as ordinary poor fella on the street, QE3 is good?
Inflation can put poor fella more stresses in their daily life.
While rich one may enjoy through asset valuation increase in figure.

Why sell PBB?

Banks generally or may be one of major beneficier of QE.
Cheap money, cheap cost of lending to banks.
Also banks may be beneficier from inflationary of goods and commodities as well.

Buy those commodities that has no expiration date in inflationary environment.

We have inflationary issue now, but the inflationary pressure is not come from demand pull but a push factor from QE.
So you may have a high price of commodities but demand out there can be weak.
See those dry bulk index, still hovering at low point despite inflationary pressure on commodities or high oil price.

That one is PPB, not PBB.

Yes, but current slide may indeed provide good opportunity to enter.

One day, controlled item price needs to be raised as well.

The famous nickname given by many already hint something, isn't it?

I do not think export orientated country like Malaysia would let RM to be too strong against USD, it can hurt export, after all, export most are priced in USD and settled in USD.

See how Yen appreciation affected the Japan industry.

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Added on September 20, 2012, 10:24 amor emerging market wealthy benefit from QE3?

I do not see how ordinary person on the street benefit from QE3, inflation can make ordinary person life more miserable only.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Sep 20 2012, 10:24 AM

If RM appreciated a lot against USD to offset the rise in commodities price.

For eg. oil price surged from USD90 to USD99 in anticipation and aftermath of QE is announced, a 10% rise, did RM rise 10% against USD to offset within this period?

Yes, RM did surge against USD, but not enough to offset the rise in oil price, that's why we see real petrol price is near RM3.00, and industrial diesel is above RM2.50.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Sep 20 2012, 11:10 AM

A 4.5% yield is deemed high in the eye of foreign investors and fixed income fund manager.

With Fed saying low interest rate until 2015, unlimited QE3, Japan also QE recently, too much money has nowhere to park.

Ya, kinda agree, but don't be complacency.

China slowdown and if dip into recession, we don't know the real effect, as China has never in recession since its economy start booming decades back.
So leverage issue, over-capacity issue is not tested in real effect before.

Re-adjustment can be painful and long process as well.
Asean countries experienced before

My IGBreit Vroom better.

If my IGBreit plunges, so does yours vroom vroom Kassets.

So your Kassets need to watch my IGBreit's face.
Joking only.