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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V125, stimulus, no stimulus, stimulus...

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cherroy
post Oct 2 2012, 09:22 PM

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Big plunge for today FCPO.
cherroy
post Oct 3 2012, 11:26 AM

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QUOTE(originck @ Oct 3 2012, 11:20 AM)
If I buy kassets today, will i get IGBR?
If so buy 1 Kassets get how many IGBR?

Thanks.
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No.

What left is capital repayment, Rm2.43 + whatever proceed left on the disposal of IGBreit after deducting all the expenses.
And it will delisted afterwards.
And the capital repayment take months to complete, aka based on the proposal, around/after 1Q 2013

cherroy
post Oct 3 2012, 02:32 PM

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QUOTE(MrCare @ Oct 3 2012, 11:48 AM)
Hi, so confirm today if buy Kassets shares will not be entitled for any of the shares in IGBR?

Also, where is the news for the delisting? What is being delisted?? May you shed some light please? Thanks
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Yes, won't entitle.

Capital repayment is subjected to relevant authority approval as well as high court order.
In the proposal, company stated or give expectation around March 2013, but the time frame is an estimation only.


Added on October 3, 2012, 2:33 pm
QUOTE(yok70 @ Oct 3 2012, 02:17 PM)
Wow! 1400-1500 the last support line. That's quite scary! 
Coming months will see 30% increase on palm production. This may further depressed the palm price.  sweat.gif
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1500 is near to the cost of planter already...

I do not think can breach through 2000 kua...
If it does, plantation stocks should plunge more, which has not yet until now.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Oct 3 2012, 02:33 PM
cherroy
post Oct 3 2012, 03:19 PM

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QUOTE(duckaton @ Oct 3 2012, 03:09 PM)
so nobody can buy at the issue price of rm0.15?
they list to market and people trade?

thank you in advance
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Approach the investment bank if one wants to subscribe the CWs.

Normally at 250k per trench.
cherroy
post Oct 3 2012, 03:28 PM

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QUOTE(duckaton @ Oct 3 2012, 03:20 PM)
so if the bank release at ipo0.15 x 5 = 0.75 + conversion6.70 = 7.25
the bank lose once maxis goes above rm7.25 right?

they know something we don't...
*
Yes.

But investment bank can own Maxis share now at Rm7.00 to hedge against the rise.
or
the investment bank already own the Maxis share prior before issue the CWs.

So they are not in position to lose. But CWs, can be a way to hedge against downside risk of Maxis share they own.
as you have 2 scenario

1. Maxis share surge more than RM7.25, they lose some on CW, but gain on Maxis share they owned. Since the CWs is issued at a premium, the gain of Maxis share should be more than loss in CW.

2. Maxis share plunge or below RM7.25, they gain from CW issued , while the gain from CWs should be more than enoughs CW (as is issued at a premium to market price) to cover the lose of Maxis share owned. So net to net, still gain.

So see who is the winner?

cherroy
post Oct 3 2012, 05:34 PM

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QUOTE(Tycoon168 @ Oct 3 2012, 04:16 PM)
Wow.. U just break my wall to wisdom in financial..  thumbup.gif

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There is reason why CWs mushrooming around.
Can go from CA until CZ laugh.gif

CWs often being issued at a premium of 20%+.

We know stock market performance from history average gain about in teen double digit.
While CW has short expiration range from 6- 1 years plus and mostly being issued at 20%+ premium.

So one can count the odd chance or probability for stock to gain 20%+ over the CW life-time.



cherroy
post Oct 3 2012, 05:38 PM

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QUOTE(duckaton @ Oct 3 2012, 03:38 PM)
if this is the case, which most probably are,
call-warrants shouldn't even be allowed.

it is similar to selling risk and passing them to us. vmad.gif
*
There is always reason why rich become richer.

One can hedge around with derivatives product.
The rich one can access more investment product, structured product around, derivatives, and many many more that is not accessible for ordinary.

You know, in US, you can buy other mortgages, or "own other mortgages" through MBS.
One can buy over others insurance (defaulted or cannot continue pay a premium on the insurance) and gain a profit from it through continue the policy. I cannot 100% sure on this, as only knew and still studying recently
Correct me if I am wrong.
cherroy
post Oct 4 2012, 03:58 PM

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QUOTE(mopster @ Oct 4 2012, 02:29 PM)
just a question.. Gov reduce palm oil tax.. how can it affect CPO price ?? O___o

it only reduces planters cost.. and that has nothing to CPO demand and price.. right ?

plz correct me if i'm wrong... rclxub.gif

Sample:
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...35&sec=business
Palm oil inches up on possible Malaysia export tax cut
*
Reduce palm oil tax,
- overseas buyer see cheaper palm oil from Malaysia, demand for Malaysia origin palm oil up. (at the expenses of other producers).
Total demand worldwide still the same, but business concentration may change.
Also if palm oil is significant cheaper than alternative based oil (soy etc), it may as well attract demand from there.

Just like supermarket slashing price to attract customer from rival supermarket. While total customer remain the same actually.
cherroy
post Oct 4 2012, 04:11 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Oct 4 2012, 04:02 PM)
So there isn't any sort of "international palm oil price association" who standardize the price worldwide? Or it just depends on the country's futures trading? For instance, gold price. Gold price also can be different from different countries?
Thanks!!  notworthy.gif
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There is no such thing of international standard price.

Even crude oil, we have Nymex sweet crude, Brent, Tapis. All may have different price to another, depended on demand and supply from the particular region.
But those price (those with large trading going on or high % of worldwide trade is going on) generally being used as strong/tighter benchmark (just like gold).

Futures trading normally participated by major producers and major buyer that who want to hedge their cost of supply. So it is strong benchmark for business out there.
There is no requirement or a must oil/palm oil or whatever commodities must be sold/bought through futures market.
cherroy
post Oct 5 2012, 02:50 PM

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QUOTE(ham_revilo @ Oct 5 2012, 02:34 PM)
icon_rolleyes.gif whatever it is as long you make money, its good enough smile.gif
i curse TM because still cannot reach the target i want.

from 2011-2012 price increase around 80% (2.5x-4.4x). this year 2012 until now around 40% only (4.4x-6.3x).

i thought with Unifi blooming steadily, it's share price can perform better than last year. but mana tau doh.gif

anyhow, a profit is profit. better than loss  icon_rolleyes.gif
*
Increase 40% also not satisfy?

Increase >10% is considered good
Increase >20% is considered magnificent
Increase >30/40~100%, once or twice time or a few time in a decade only.

Over long term, market return average is about teen number,
even an average of teen number return, one at least is heading to millionaire status already over the long term.

If one is achieving 40%-80% pa. over the long term, I can assure one will be legend in the stock market, and another WB in making. rclxms.gif
cherroy
post Oct 5 2012, 04:04 PM

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QUOTE(ham_revilo @ Oct 5 2012, 03:16 PM)
its just my luck i guess + plus some research to profit around 40% from TM currently including divvy+capital reimbursement. btw, if not mistaken, (  ) say he beat WB if im not mistaken in one of his talk  tongue.gif

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I don't like to compare A win x%, B gain y%. Then A better than B or not. Pointless comparison.

Wait, you win 80% last year, and 40% this year on TM, so you also beat WB and miles better than WB.
Congratulation, you also become a legend that beat WB. rclxms.gif

Investment is about profit or gain money for oneself, not about a race who win more or less.
It is never a race, nor can compare who is better or not.
It is an effort to make use of capital aka money make money.
cherroy
post Oct 5 2012, 04:16 PM

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QUOTE(ham_revilo @ Oct 5 2012, 04:08 PM)
sorry bro. im not referring to anyone or directly comparing with anyone. im just stating a fact. didnt meant to offend anyone too.

no offence bro  notworthy.gif
*
It is ok to post your experience/gain/fact on yourself.
It is not offending. smile.gif

The post is merely more towards issue that one beats WB or not and never specific pointing to whom. smile.gif
cherroy
post Oct 5 2012, 04:24 PM

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QUOTE(ham_revilo @ Oct 5 2012, 04:20 PM)
errr... guys, im not sure what i said earlier, but i really did not praise myself or deliberately compare anything to anyone. yeah, i know sometimes i curse TM but its just a, you know a joke. is it me or its really no joking, all serious in this thread?  hmm.gif

anyhow, i take back whatever i said that offended everyone. sorry guys  notworthy.gif

btw, just to clarify stuff, im a very very young investor. been in the market for less than 2 years only. so i will probably be the last person to compare myself to anyone smile.gif if i did, its merely a joke of some sort and maybe my joke offended you guys too, well im sorry about that too

cheers guys  icon_rolleyes.gif
*
Don't need to take back. smile.gif

Just to highlight never compare with other in investment, as it is not a race to finish line. smile.gif

Cheers.
cherroy
post Oct 6 2012, 12:05 PM

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QUOTE(mopster @ Oct 6 2012, 12:07 AM)
now i'm like this, stranded in an island, waiting for a safe boat before jumping in again.. laugh.gif
no larr. i sold 2.60.. today 2.80 liao... cap repayment estimated to be 2.4xx if i remember correctly..
still dunno why the premium to cap repayment....  rclxub.gif
*
Estimation of RM2.43 is based on estimation of disposal of IGBreit at Rm1.00, which can lead to company has about Rm670 million.

While the actual IPO price is Rm1.25. which is 25% more than Rm1.00 estimation, so the company may have extra RM670 million x 25% = RM167.5 million for special dividend part/capital repayment, so dividend 500+ mil shares, so there may be extra Rm0.2x ~ RM0.3x on top of the RM2.43 estimation.

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