why? what's on friday?

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Added on July 24, 2012, 4:39 pmbecause it's now no longer cheap.

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 24 2012, 04:39 PM

my portfolio 70% green.

冷眼 effect.

Great article from Alex blog.

http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2012/07/never-lost.html

Attached File(s)
 construction_cimb_240712.pdf ( 468.92k ) Number of downloads: 67

IHH not so geng. Can up 20% on first day or not?

My profile paper loss 1% from recent peak. Power of diversification?
LVS reported profit dropped 40%, today all casino stocks sold down like no more business for them.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/751221-col...ss?source=yahoo

From PE 20x to PE 30x now. Profit increment not much, but PE higher and higher. Defensive play, an expensive defensive play. But I guess it deserve the premium, it's a premium brand stock. LV class.
I never own any Nestle stock. Every time think it's too expensive, so never hit the buy button. My mistake I guess.

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Added on July 27, 2012, 5:09 pmI also stop looking at this stock since last profit taking and pull out all. Same feeling, don't like its profit drop without a good reason to maintain investors' confident. However, I won't deny that their into properties business could have a good future, but this has very high risk since they don't have such past records to prove their ability in properties business. Conclusion is, high risk.

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 27 2012, 05:09 PM

In Seoul, South Korean carmaker Hyundai Motor reported its 13th straight quarter of rising profits yesterday, boosted by record global sales, including double-digit gains in Europe, even as its home market and China proved sluggish.

Net profits rose to 2.55 trillion won (RM7.14 billion) for April to June, broadly in line with an average forecast among 14 analysts of 2.52 trillion won. It marked a rise of 10 per cent over a year earlier.

Hyundai Motor, the world’s fifth-biggest carmaker along with affiliate Kia Motors, said April-to-June quarterly sales topping 1.11 million vehicles were a record high

In Berlin, Volkswagen, Europe’s biggest car maker, said bottom-line profits in the first half of the year soared by more than a third.

The group reported a 36 per cent rise in net profit to euro8.83 billion (RM33.9 billion) during the first six months of 2012 and saw a 23 per cent rise in turnover to euro95.38 billion.

Read more: High yen hits Nissan but Hyundai, VW in high gear http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM.../#ixzz21oRWAknf


It doesn't seem to me that the world economy is really that bad. How can people afford to buy car if they are so poor? Car is one of the most expensive asset with the highest rate of depreciation.

ya, some great ships I always missed. Nestle, Pavreit, Padini, Huayang....just to name a few. I'm not a good investor, because I am too greedy and so wanting to catch the bottom. These stocks don't correct much, that's why. I'm slow and greedy. My bad.

Do you think Malaysia economy is bad at all? Do you think average Malaysians are poor at all? I see many youth can afford to drink Coffee Beans and Starbucks ALMOST EVERYDAY!

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Added on July 27, 2012, 5:44 pmi am bad investor.

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 27 2012, 05:44 PM

Sometimes I think, it's not so brilliant to hold undervalue stock sometimes.
1. their financial conditions are not extraordinary and sustainable for a period of time (ie 3-5 years) yet, that's why their stock price are still undervalued.
2. their stock price may shoot up 100% or 200% in a short period of time (ie 2-4 weeks) when institutional investors finally decided to get in. But how long to wait for that to finally happened? Probably 2 years? 3 years? even 4 years? Or never?
3. usually they do not have good dividend policy or payout rate, so for the 3-4 years of holding without much capital gain, income is almost a frustrating zero.

When the day comes, say earned 100% in 3 years. So 3-yr CAGR is 100%, so 1 year gain is 33%.
Now look at a superstar stock that gives steady dividend say 4% each year with capital gain of 16%. One year gain is 20%.

One is frustrating waiting for wet dream to come true. The other one is every night good sleep with steady gain through out the investment period, this mean can realize(sell) the investment anytime during the period if need to cash out.

thing is, how we know which of those can up 100% in 1 year?
say today, which undervalued stock you think got potential to up 100% in 1 year? for example?
normally, if a stock got 3-5 year steady record of EPS growth CAGR above 16% with good dividend yield (above 4%), normally their share price already up and won't stay low.


This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 27 2012, 06:36 PM

Exactly!

As for my current holding Perisai shares, the first batch was bought in April 2011 at 0.87. As of today's closing of 0.885, capital gain of 0.58%, zero dividend yield.
About Perisai's business? Excellent! As expected by IBs and market. But so what? Just 0.58% gain in 15 months, although its EPS growth 100%, 200%.
Why? Because there is no back tracking record of 3-5 year sustainable EPS growth.

E&O got dividend actually, about 3%.
Its past record EPS not steady. Sometimes up 200%, sometimes down 50% or so.

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Added on July 27, 2012, 7:02 pmAs of my current holding DRB. My first batch bought last year April too, at 2.36. At today's closing 2.58, capital gain is 9%. Dividend about 2%, so total is 11%. Not 50%.
Therefore, for investor (holding stock mid to long term), it usually not so good if to hold non-superstar "high growth" stock with low dividend yield.
However, I'm not saying I am one of those. I do occasionally trades too, buy low sell high in out in out.
Well, i trade just below 10% of my total investment though. So 90% of my DRB stock i hold, 10% of it in out in out depends on market sentiment. Same to perisai and all others.



This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 27 2012, 07:04 PM

An classic example.

Same time of buying, my Axreit bought in April last year at 2.32. Today's closing 2.93, capital gain 25% with dividend yield 6%. Total gain 31%. Same as a 100% up stock that only happened after 3 years holding.

I have been putting trading profit to increase Reits. My Reits holding has increase to 30% of profile now.
Nestle, always in watch list, and always think it's expensive.
And I won't stop trading too, it's too excited to be ignored.

Is it? That's great!
I treat E&O like Perisai and DRB, i just keep as gambling. Wish they can go 100%, 200% capital gain one day. But if that didn't happen, it's ok. Since I already take them as "gambling".

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Added on July 27, 2012, 7:28 pmMaybe. I don't know. It's possible.

I am optimistic on well managed Reits, one thing is that "they are property assets". If Malaysia's properties market up, their value should be up as well as rental will be up. And I believe Malaysia's properties market should be bullish in long run. Properties stocks are more like "property traders"(hold short term only) instead of property assets, the way i look at it.

As long as it gives steady above 16% profit in total, I'm happy to hold for long term. Reits are my steady income section, not the high growth section (drb, perisai, e&o etc).



This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 27 2012, 07:35 PM

too bad we have this GE NIGHTMARE to press down our market, otherwise 1800 coming.

I think the so called "traders" are a little too sensitive when people called them traders.
There is nothing wrong for being a trader at the first place, it's just a very rough and inaccurate way to categorize stock market participants. It's not a big deal, really.
Why so sensitive? This I don't understand.
And for me, I also don't see any "investors" in this forum looking down on so called "traders" here. Honestly, I don't see that at all. I'm seeing investors blaming on themselves having made mistakes on believing some stock and hold them long term. And I am also seeing traders blaming their mistake of being too emotional and made bad mistakes. I mean, it's equal on both side. So ya, I think the traders here are being too sensitive. Really. Look at danmooncake, he proudly admitted himself as a trader and happily trading everyday. He reported his loss and also his gain without any bias. Same to Cherroy, happily admitted himself as an investor. And both of them also clearly stated their belief of their own choice (as a trader/investor). Everyone made their own choice. That's the spirit. Just be truth to ourselves, nothing is so complicated lah.

Just my view.

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 29 2012, 09:55 PM