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 MAS, under value?

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alenac
post Nov 28 2012, 09:28 PM

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Good companies with excellent team work would not want to carry passengers and excess baggage.
kaitokid11
post Nov 29 2012, 10:22 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 28 2012, 03:34 PM)
Not like that.
It is happening on account book.
While your x number of shares remain the same.
Last time you have 1000 shares at RM1 par value, now become 1000 shares at Rm0.10 par value.

Par value is the money paid/injected to issue the share previously.
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thanks for ur info sweat.gif
se7enteenGuy
post Nov 29 2012, 12:00 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 28 2012, 03:34 PM)
Not like that.
It is happening on account book.
While your x number of shares remain the same.
Last time you have 1000 shares at RM1 par value, now become 1000 shares at Rm0.10 par value.

Par value is the money paid/injected to issue the share previously.
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let say if the current price did not drop, this will only affect the dividen payout?

noob here.
bursalchemy
post Nov 29 2012, 12:36 PM

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QUOTE(se7enteenGuy @ Nov 29 2012, 12:00 PM)
let say if the current price did not drop, this will only affect the dividen payout?

noob here.
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Bcoz ordinary share capital is non distributable reserve. It doesnt affect shareholders actually. Par value is nt important in valuation of shares.

Reduction in par value will only affect debtholder interest. MAS has to negotiate with its debtholder to accept the reduction since the guarantee of their loan principal has reduced. It has to check whether the creditor covenant has been breached.

Regarding dividend issue, it also wont affect. Management can decide divd based on %of share capital or based on cents/share. It is nt compulsory but voluntary. Up to the management want to distribute how much.

The piece of cake is still the same size. But it is cut smaller. :-)
cherroy
post Nov 29 2012, 03:07 PM

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QUOTE(se7enteenGuy @ Nov 29 2012, 12:00 PM)
let say if the current price did not drop, this will only affect the dividen payout?

noob here.
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LOL, dividend?

At the moment, the company has a plan to issue right issue to fund the company need, aka seeking money from shareholders, and you expect a dividend?

If a company can give dividend, generally you won't see capital reduction in the first place.
Capital reduction normally associated with company made losses or accumulated retained losses in the account book.
foofoosasa
post Nov 29 2012, 03:30 PM

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QUOTE(bursalchemy @ Nov 29 2012, 12:36 PM)
Bcoz ordinary share capital is non distributable reserve. It doesnt affect shareholders actually. Par value is nt important in valuation of shares.

Reduction in par value will only affect debtholder interest. MAS has to negotiate with its debtholder to accept the reduction since the guarantee of their loan principal has reduced. It has to check whether the creditor covenant has been breached.

Regarding dividend issue, it also wont affect. Management can decide divd based on %of share capital or based on cents/share. It is nt compulsory but voluntary. Up to the management want to distribute how much.

The piece of cake is still the same size. But it is cut smaller. :-)
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Reduction in par Value definitely a very bad things to retail investor.

Why MAS drop so much before the news announced?You still can see so many stubborn investor still hope MAS can turn around.

Yes, It doesn't change the value,but at least it does change the perception on some investor to accept MAS long run losses already eat up large proportion of their original capital.It just a matter of when it writes down their capital in account book.

my view is still many people still have wrong perception on the value, or just speculate they can turn around before the reduction in par value.

Just my view

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Nov 29 2012, 03:30 PM
alenac
post Nov 29 2012, 08:11 PM

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MAS has accumulated losses of slightly above 8 bill. So much for the many attempts in the past including Idris Jala to recover from losses. So the next best alternative is to go for capital reduction then rights issue and start anew. So the pricing for the rights according to The Star today is around 60 sen for 10 sen per share par value. Effectively, it will create a share premium account that is 5 times more than its share capital. So far so good. But the issue is that will the rights be priced competatively and based on forward PE of how much? I would say should be not be more than Airasia's 14. Or given it's lousy historical earning's record it should be below 10 as an added attraction for existing shareholders to subscribe for the rights and sustained it's share price above 60 sen, of course if 60 sen is the reasonable price to forward P/e. Or else, the scenerio of Asstro IPO will be replayed.
kb2005
post Nov 30 2012, 12:10 AM

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I observed EPF keep dumping MAS shares since last week. That is an indication of either bad result or bad news is coming.
alenac
post Nov 30 2012, 08:32 AM

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If the indicative price of right issue is around 60 sen.then EPF is anticipating a drop to 60 sen in the mid term. So dump first and buy back later.
foofoosasa
post Nov 30 2012, 10:52 AM

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QUOTE(alenac @ Nov 30 2012, 08:32 AM)
If the indicative price of right issue is around 60 sen.then EPF is anticipating a drop to 60 sen in the mid term. So dump first and buy back later.
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Looking at their balance sheet, I found it is funny they ask for 60 cents.
Their shares not even worth 30cents.
htt
post Nov 30 2012, 11:03 AM

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QUOTE(alenac @ Nov 29 2012, 08:11 PM)
MAS has accumulated losses of slightly above 8 bill. So much for the many attempts in the past including Idris Jala to recover from losses. So the next best alternative is to go for capital reduction then rights issue and start anew. So the pricing for the rights according to The Star today is around 60 sen for 10 sen per share par value. Effectively, it will create a share premium account that is 5 times more than its share capital. So far so good. But the issue is that will the rights be priced competatively and based on forward PE of how much? I would say should be not be more than Airasia's 14. Or given it's lousy historical earning's record it should be below 10 as an added attraction for existing shareholders to subscribe for the rights and sustained it's share price above 60 sen, of course if 60 sen is the reasonable price to forward P/e. Or else, the scenerio of Asstro IPO will be replayed.
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If based on 14, probably they have to pay the shareholders and give them free shares at the same time... hmm.gif
kb2005
post Nov 30 2012, 11:11 AM

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MAS up 4sen so far. ANy comment?
old_and_slow
post Nov 30 2012, 12:48 PM

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it will stagnate ~0.80-0.90, keep ur eyes on EPF activities, i think im jumping in for a long
rosdi1
post Nov 30 2012, 02:57 PM

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QUOTE(kb2005 @ Nov 30 2012, 11:11 AM)
MAS up 4sen so far. ANy comment?
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I think it is heading for 0.50.
It look like they are going to have RIWA 5 for 1 at 0.20
This is just my guess.
kb2005
post Nov 30 2012, 03:10 PM

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QUOTE(rosdi1 @ Nov 30 2012, 02:57 PM)
I think it is heading for 0.50. 
It look like they are going to have RIWA  5 for 1  at 0.20
This is just my guess.
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But current price does not support your statement above. Who is buying and who is supporting the stock from falling ?
StupidGuyPlayComp
post Nov 30 2012, 08:51 PM

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biggrin.gif I m TA noob, but I told my colleague when the share price RM1.9x

"Look at the price chart, the big player will goreng up a bit till stagnant at RM1.9x to attract ppl jump in"
"the big player start to release at RM1.9x"
"after a period of time, share price suddenly drop drastically untill certain level"
"stagnant at that level a moment to let the big player release"
"after a while, share price goreng up, but below RM1.90, so the group who bought RM1.9x cant release"
"more and more ppl felt it rebound then jump in again"

MAS keep repeat this trend since long time ago, pathetic to who greedy small investor
alenac
post Nov 30 2012, 10:28 PM

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QUOTE(htt @ Nov 30 2012, 11:03 AM)
If based on 14, probably they have to pay the shareholders and give them free shares at the same time... hmm.gif
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Not necessary to provide freebie, the rights will definitely be priced above 10 sen par value after capital reduction. So the trick is to forecast the earnings and call for rights at say 60 sen. Just as in IPO for instance FGV, projects the IPO price based on estimated future profit and if the company did not make it, too bad for the shareholders. So FGV can always explained the profit shortfall as price of CPO has plummeted in the global market so shareholders can sucked eggs.

This post has been edited by alenac: Nov 30 2012, 10:35 PM
hyzam1212
post Dec 28 2012, 03:48 PM

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Recently on the up after support 0.69...what say you guys rite now...current price is 0.72...potential on the up? coincidently same with AAsia
KSFONG
post Dec 28 2012, 05:41 PM

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unrealized losses above 50% . all support cant hold , but still thinking to averaging .
alenac
post Dec 30 2012, 10:10 PM

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Mas shares overhang is still very high, would not touched it untill the price is stable. Unless the government GLCs started to mop the shares substantially I won't touch it. Anyway the rights issue will coincide with the next year 1st quarter results, if not price ex rights will not be sustainable.

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