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 AS1M/ASM/ASW2020/ASN/ASB and other PNB funds V3, lending your money to the government

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MGM
post Aug 27 2013, 12:46 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Aug 27 2013, 11:27 AM)
Alredy standby $ to top up on 2/9/2013  brows.gif
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But any amt you put in after the 1st day of the month will not entitle any dividend for that month. So you will not get any dividend for sept2013. But still better than FD.

This post has been edited by MGM: Aug 27 2013, 12:47 PM
MGM
post Aug 28 2013, 04:40 PM

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QUOTE(hyelbaine @ Aug 28 2013, 04:30 PM)
I'm not one to bursts everyone hopes but I kinda have a rough idea as to why SC would shoot down the idea. It is safe to say that all of PNB's fixed priced funds easily accounts for a large majority of the local stock market. If one is to assume that these funds make up say 1/4 of the entire market capitalization, any "run" on PNB where its investors decide to redeem their units would be catastrophic to the stock market.

Remember that these fixed priced funds are pegged at RM1 regardless of its actual NAV. Even if the NAV for these funds are MYR0.70, PNB still has to honor the RM0.30 difference by whatever means necessary, including liquidating its equity securities at fire-sale prices. This has to be done as PNB honors redemption transactions on the spot or issues a cheque for large transactions pretty much on the same day of the transaction.

If you put yourself in the SC's shoes, you can see the systemic risks that these fixed priced fund can cause in the event of a severe economic slowdown and a run on PNB. Having ASB+AS1M+ASW+ASD+ASM wipe out a large chunk of market capitalization is not only bad for the stock market but creates after-effect shocks that can shake the entire economy.

My assessment that PNB's fixed priced fund make up 1/4 of the entire market capitalization maybe on the low side. Judging how large ASB alone is, one could speculate that PNB's exposure to the local equity market might be closer to 1/3.

That's how I come to the conclusion that SC will not sanction future fixed priced funds but....

There's nothing stopping anyone from hoping and wishing there is wink.gif
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in 2010 PNB's fund size was rm150bil and TabungHaji -rm28bil while in 2012 EPF was rm527bil. Total KLSE size I think is rm1000bil. Not all these funds are invested in KLSE, alot of them are in Govt bonds which is why the yearly dividend is quite low but consistent. Many investors take these funds as safe-haven and only cash out when necessary cos it is easy to sell but hard to buy (esp for the non-bumi).

This post has been edited by MGM: Aug 28 2013, 04:47 PM
MGM
post Aug 28 2013, 05:31 PM

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QUOTE(hyelbaine @ Aug 28 2013, 04:54 PM)
Most of the fixed priced funds are classified (by PNB at least) as equity funds and judging from their respective annual reports, their exposure to equity is between 70% to 80% of the entire portfolio. Since PNB is not allowed to invest in overseas equities so pretty much their entire equity exposure is to the local market.

I know I'm being pessimistic but I can see the reasoning for why the SC frowns upon new fixed priced funds. The potential systemic risk of a "run" on PNB and its resulting effects on the stock market is just too large. Except for LTH, no other GLIC is as liquid and fixes its price like PNB. As you rightly pointed out, LTH represents a small footprint compared to PNB.

Mind you, even though the size of KLCI maybe a trillion ringgit, but remember that PNB invests the billions it has mostly in blue-chip stocks.

I'm no math guru but I assume that if you take out PNB's fixed priced funds out of the KLCI, you could just easily wipe out a couple of hundred points. Imagine the effects to the sentiment of the markets if that happens tongue.gif
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Most PNB funds' investors are conservative and treat these funds as safe-haven cos markets can go rollercoaster (KLSE 300-1800) but dividend is still very consistent. I dont think there will be a run on PNB funds, not even in Aug1998 when Klse was at 303 or 877 in Dec2008, may be a trickle.

This post has been edited by MGM: Aug 28 2013, 05:36 PM
MGM
post Aug 29 2013, 08:05 AM

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Looks like these ASNB funds are in great demand but supply limited. Maybe somebody can start a trading site for trading ASNB units, hahaha.
MGM
post Aug 29 2013, 09:15 AM

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An article explaining ASNB funds consistent payout:

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/features/14...ve-returns.html
MGM
post Aug 29 2013, 10:39 AM

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QUOTE(cckkpr @ Aug 29 2013, 08:58 AM)
I think ASM and ASM2020 dividends are more stable.

I hope the AS1M dividend matches the other funds as the initial response was pathetic.
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Since its 2009 launch AS1M has been giving better returns than ASM and ASW2020.

Refer here for a comparison:

http://senseofmoney.blogspot.com/2011/04/c...-dividends.html
MGM
post Aug 29 2013, 01:49 PM

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QUOTE(lucifah @ Aug 29 2013, 12:29 PM)
have u guys ever thought of parking your funds in someone else's account?

get a trusted bumiputra fellow / friend. write up a contract. give him 0.5% earning. then u can top up as much as you want into his account.

i know a few of my non-bumi friends do that... i wondered why no one mentioned about this here?

park the fund under ASB. ASB declares 8+% dividend. u give 0.5% to 1.0% dividend to account holder and pocket the rest. it's still better return than ASM / ASW /AS1M
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I think only greedy fools would do that. When the guy died, you can kiss your money goodbye no matter you have agreement or not. It will be distributed to his dependants.
MGM
post Aug 29 2013, 01:58 PM

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QUOTE(lucifah @ Aug 29 2013, 01:49 PM)
no risk, no gain...  laugh.gif  nod.gif
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very high risk miserable gain.

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