I'm no finance guy too Kaka
Just to share my views - please note, NOT SELLING OR BRAINWASHING, just sharing to see if any holes in my logic yar (pls do criticize with optional solutions - kamsiah
):
RHB GS BRIC (my own Excel + logic cooking yar, please dont eat if not to your taste
)[attachmentid=3267841]
a. NAV current = historical NAVs (since 07/01/2010) 25% percentile or lower (CELL B1 Excel formula PERCENTILE() ) AND near (3 year's moving average LESS standard deviation since 07/01/2010, see column P)
b. See snaps of Brazil, Russia, China from (
http://markets.on.nytimes.com/research/mar...orldmarkets.asp )
[attachmentid=3267856][attachmentid=3267858][attachmentid=3267859]
c. The driving factors of these 4 economies are different enough AND continentally far enough that, barring a worldwide hit like 2008, it should chug along without any massive swings.
Commodities via Manulife thinggy... (again, my own Excel cooking yar, pls dont eat if not to your taste)[attachmentid=3267870]
d. NAV current = historical NAVs (since 07/01/2010) lower than 25% percentile (CELL B1 Excel formula PERCENTILE() ) AND lower than (3 year's moving average LESS standard deviation since 07/01/2010, see column P)
PS: Pls ignore all the other columns in the spreadsheet except:
a. column A (Date)
b. column B (NAV of each Date)
c. cell B1 - the current 25% Percentile of historical NAVs till the current NAV
d. column P (3 years' moving average of NAV +/- standard deviation, where green = NAV < (3yrs MA - Std Deviation) )
The rest of the columns are for calculating my moving averages, Trends (short-mid & mid-long) + other checks to see if any "jumps off rail". Too lalaland for general usage discussion .
Note - i'm only showing the last few days' NAV since easily gotten from FSM's site as i promised someone not to drop the entire NAV data out yar.
Again - these Excel are my own cooking, for my own usage.
Sharing to see if fellow forumers can shoot holes in them and help me learn & improve.

Wong sifu, during this CNY session, I hv revamp my UT monitoring excel sheet to add in more useful information. Ur above post is quite useful for me, but I hv few question on it:
1. what is the meaning of 25 percentile data to u? what decision can be make based on this data.
2. what is the use for "3 years MA - Std Deviation"? I am creating it with "1 year EMA - std deviation" since no enough data.
Ur sharing is much appreciated.