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 Are property prices going to up further? V4, nothing's gonna stop us now

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prody
post Mar 20 2012, 09:22 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Mar 19 2012, 09:24 PM)
We have another fortune teller here.  rclxms.gif
Property Tsunami in the next 6 month? I heard this 2009, 2010, 2011, now 2012. Get bored already.

Even one get it correct one day (for sure, one day somebody will hit it) when property price drop time, so?.
Can a prime location property that 5 years ago that was 500k and now 850K, drop back to 500k?
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No need to drop back to 500k, taking inflation of 5% for 5 years, a good price would be about 650k.
prody
post Mar 22 2012, 09:21 AM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Mar 21 2012, 03:44 PM)
it's happened the whole asia countries except japan, no point to blame any party like governmnet or BNM. i think without the implementation and policy by government and BNM, we'll still follow the trend to shoot up to higher price.

yes, wages are higher in singapore and hong kong compare to malaysia, but their property price are very very expensive till beyong the majority's wages too.
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I think implementing a flat rate RPGT of 50% for sales within 5 years (excluding first home sellers) would have helped.


Added on March 22, 2012, 9:24 am
QUOTE(Bobby C @ Mar 21 2012, 05:54 PM)
Looking at positive side, if Indo can recover from 1998 crash, now following closely behind BRIC emerging economy, probably Bolehland some day after political cleansing/spring cleaning or some major restructuring on the administration .. can make it too.  laugh.gif

With condition that majority willing to go overseas and work as foreign maids. This is actually from an Indo partime maid saying our locals too complacent and lazy. She predict someday our locals will be working for them in Indo. Actual, local think-tank Dr Kua also predict the same. Indo gomen now can lansi with their maids, stop sending maids from 2016 as their country need even more workforce wink.gif 

Seriously, looking around friends and family member, almost all having family members or friends migrated or working overseas. First wave mainly Chinese already moved out. Others will probably follow suit when crude oil depleted. Positive point, foreign maids and workers will bring money back to sustain local economy.  laugh.gif

In short, the faster the political awakening, the better.


Added on March 21, 2012, 6:09 pmSpoken to some Jap tat I met on the plane on his outlook on Japanese investment in the regional countries.

Thailand even with past political uncertainities, big floods the Japs mostly still prefer to stay put due to very attractive tax package. The further you build your factory away from the city, the higher the tax incentive.

Many Jap firms expected to move out from Japan due to electricity shortage results from shutting down all the nuke plants. Their preferred country Vietnam, Thailand, China, even India .. sorry Bolehland not in the list. People invest in your country still 'ah ci ah chor' asking this tat 30% crap .. bl**dy f**l.
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I think the upcoming election will be a turning point for Malaysia, it can still go both ways.

This post has been edited by prody: Mar 22 2012, 09:24 AM
prody
post Mar 22 2012, 10:26 AM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Mar 22 2012, 10:12 AM)
Well, implement 50% RPGT will definitely stop the market grow, it will kill the whole market too, it doesn't work, only way we can do is accept the current launch price, if budget less than 400k for landed, less than 200-300k for condo, better look for Subsale market, recently I recommended a cousin bought a Subsale link house in sg long with less than 400k, with this price range he can only get new launch at seminyeh, since he can also accept the old one, why don't you?
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Market seems already to have stopped now even without introduction of higher RPGT, looking at the decrease in the Malaysian Housing Price index in Q3 2011. I just mentioned it could have been used to stop the excessive price increases from happening in the first place. There doesn't need to be a "housing market" by the way.

I would have no problem buying subsale at normal levels. I will not be buying subsale at excessive levels.
prody
post Mar 22 2012, 10:54 AM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Mar 22 2012, 10:44 AM)
Price will be healthy start from this year, over the time, people will accept and used to this price range, just like the petrol price, there's no way back to RM1.10/litre
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Yeah over time this price range should be ok. Question is just how long it will take? 5 years, 10 years, 15 years?
prody
post Mar 26 2012, 11:56 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Mar 26 2012, 12:02 AM)
Waiting is an option too, I respect!  smile.gif
I recap again, if you dun buy that's fine, but dun simply ask other people not to buy.
If we give wrong advice (simply buy or refrain fr buying), it will cause disaster. In the past 3 years, many pretended to be expert stopping friends fr acquiring their desired properties are actually causing massive trouble to people who believe him now. It's a sin.  cool2.gif
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Not buying won't cause a disaster.

Buying can cause a big problem, such as not being able to pay your debt and losing your home.
It's best not to spend more then 5 times your annual salary (assuming you have no other debt such as cc, personal and car loans):

Monthly salary Maximum house cost
1,000 60,000
2,000 120,000
3,000 180,000
4,000 240,000
5,000 300,000
6,000 360,000
7,000 420,000
8,000 480,000
9,000 540,000
10,000 600,000
15,000 900,000
20,000 1,200,000
25,000 1,500,000
30,000 1,800,000

prody
post Mar 27 2012, 09:36 AM

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QUOTE(ethanyong @ Mar 26 2012, 04:34 PM)
I remember reading an article claiming Malaysian average housing debt is 10.xx times of salary, one of the highest in Asia? Please correct me if I'm wrong smile.gif Actually the ratio make sense as i can see a lot of peers buying 400-600k with 40 years loan with just monthly salary of 3-5kĀ  sweat.gif
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I remember it was too high yeah. Not sure about the actual number.


Added on March 27, 2012, 9:39 am
QUOTE(kohts @ Mar 26 2012, 04:48 PM)
What if I want to buy to rental and for capital appreciation?
Above is buying to stay I concur. I stay in house which is lower than the table
But I have few properties which is invested for rent and captial appreciationĀ  blink.gif . I utilize bank loan for such investment/
I keep a 1 years payment cash for my property loan payment just in case of anything.......

I believe it is to manage risk, any investment has its risk.
Stock like Pb bank is manxy X over its earlier worth, people still keeping. Its Pbbank stock not safe now?

Unless you dont want to invest and keep in FD... than you still loose to the inflation....

But I agree you should not buy few properties in one go, Buy one every 3-4 years and it should be ok. New risk is cover by property which has appreciated and the rental has catch up and overpass the loan payment
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The above is a general guideline of what people can afford.

In your case things are much more complicated. You are right that risk management is very important.

You should check what would happen in the following situation:
1) You lose your job
2) Half of your rental properties are empty

How long will you be able to keep paying the bank in this situation?

This post has been edited by prody: Mar 27 2012, 09:43 AM
prody
post Mar 27 2012, 11:49 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Mar 27 2012, 11:27 AM)
Dun treat all the house buyers are investors, more than 50% of buyers are buying for own stay, mthly installment affordability issue shdn't be a problem.
I can't imagine if they dun buy 2-3 yrs ago and they hv no problem buying now, avrg price has increased 50% in KV, do you think this is not a problem for them?
When people want to buy a house for own stay, it is wise not to comment to much, you won't know wat will happen.
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I'm actually more talking to people who buy for own stay. Investors should know what they are doing I hope.

This is how bubbles are created: "mthly installment affordability issue shdn't be a problem."

You mentioned it could cause a disaster. I just said it won't be a disaster if they don't buy a house. I know people who haven't bought a house in their entire life and they are perfectly happy.

I have no problem with people buying homes they can afford.
I have a small problem with people encouraging people to buy homes they can not afford. This might cause a problem.



prody
post Mar 28 2012, 09:41 AM

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QUOTE(arthurlwf @ Mar 27 2012, 03:09 PM)
Let us put it this way and here is what we know:
1) Klang Valley property is supported by genuine buyer whom want to call the place HOME

2) Klang Valley property is supported by Malaysian whom working in oversea that earns many times.
e.g. SGD 4000 = MYR 9600. Imagine how powerful is their purchasing strength

3) Klang Valley property is supported by Malaysian rich ppl whom speculate the market

4) Klang Valley property is supported by Malaysian worker whom took the advantage previously to buy super lots of property to speculate

5) Klang Valley property is supported by Foreigner whom buy for temporarily stay or speculation

6) Klang Valley property is supported by Malaysian company whom got free money to speculate the property market

Now, you think whether Klang Valley property price can go down???
The obvious answer is NO WAY
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Of course prices can go down.


prody
post Mar 28 2012, 10:12 AM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Mar 28 2012, 10:00 AM)
I found fire sales in Mont'Kiara

MONT KIARA MK10 3500sf RM750psf neg/MKll hi flr RM750psf neg fire sale/Seni 2411sf RM750psf. 019-386412 E30043 12/03/2012

hmm.gif
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Not fire sales yet, MK10 was launched at 520 psf.
prody
post Mar 28 2012, 10:32 AM

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QUOTE(arthurlwf @ Mar 28 2012, 10:15 AM)
Kindly explain under what circumstances can bring down the property prices at Klang Valley area
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Just read through a few pages of this thread and you will find plenty.
prody
post Mar 28 2012, 11:46 AM

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QUOTE(arthurlwf @ Mar 28 2012, 11:34 AM)
Fully agree with your view especially the highlight part.
It's better than someone says go read a few pages in this thread that contains 105 pages. Like someone tell a person to look for a needle in the sand.  icon_rolleyes.gif
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You have to put in some work to see what other people think. smile.gif
prody
post Mar 29 2012, 09:25 AM

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QUOTE(abgkik @ Mar 29 2012, 12:07 AM)
Even go down to 600psf still not fire sales..  smile.gif
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Yeah, fire sales is a bit of a subjective term.
I think it is more likely to happen in a market where the bubble has burst such as USA.

prody
post Apr 3 2012, 09:23 AM

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QUOTE(humble_tot @ Apr 1 2012, 11:48 PM)
There are still many decent condos around RM220k & DSL around RM350k, some more MBSB offers 100% loan. For a start you can still find affordable house if not too choosy. My 1st home @2001 was a 880sqtf apartment bought with RM88k only  blush.gif

After your house appreciate you can sell & buy a bigger, continue these steps you will get your preferred home as your salary increases along the way.
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QUOTE(silverfish1 @ Apr 2 2012, 09:10 PM)
A very sound advice....its a good idea to buy something within your reach first. It may not be in a  very good area but if you buy say for example a cheaper apartment priced at RM 100K, you can rent it out at say anywhere from RM 400 to RM 700. You can use this amount to subsidize your current rental unit. Then after few years sell it for a higher amount..meanwhile your salary and savings will increase to enable buying a bigger house in the future....the loan restriction may also be relaxed in the future...
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I would like to point out that housing prices can also stay stagnant or go down.

Good luck!
prody
post Apr 3 2012, 10:53 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Apr 3 2012, 10:31 AM)
It's true!
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Thanks for support. smile.gif

QUOTE(katijar @ Apr 3 2012, 10:44 AM)
ya, it's true. the price might go down 5% then up 50% and stagnant there for 1 -2 years and go down 5% then up 50% and stagnant there for 1 -2 years and go down 5% then up 50% and stagnant there for 1 -2 years ...  tongue.gif
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Or this might happen. sad.gif
Source: http://blog.american.com/2012/03/can-japan...housing-bubble/

user posted image

prody
post Apr 5 2012, 09:55 AM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Apr 5 2012, 01:30 AM)
It's USD 700k + to USD 300 - 400k. Don't simply plug out your own figures and since then most of the houses stayed at that price. Those in New York are still in millions. They have so much 5 star service apartment.. i wish i could live in 1 of them.

P.S: where is the gold GUY? today gold went down to RM160. Anyone buying? LOL gold steady. PUI!
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Price drops in US varied from region to region. Median house price at the peak of the bubble in US was about USD 250k by the way.
prody
post Apr 5 2012, 02:54 PM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Apr 5 2012, 02:20 PM)

That's still valid and it's depending ON WHERE THE HOUSE LOCATION IS. 250k? Are those homes even in NY? We are talking about the best location in Malaysia which is so happen to be KV why those guys can't get the point and start comparing homes in texas or dallas instead of NY/LA/CALIFORNIA... our home in those rural area like PEKAN, TRIAN, PONTIAN there DIRT CHEAP and hardly had a hike in price. Go buy there if you want to compare prices at such a level.

*The You is not referring to you ya. LOL it's those who keep talking about US property Bubble and sharing their grandfather story without basis on location, value, population and demand.
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No, as mentioned I'm talking about median price in USA.

Anyway, what you are talking about has been discussed before.
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopi...ouse+prices+usa
prody
post Apr 11 2012, 11:14 AM

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QUOTE(newx @ Apr 11 2012, 10:03 AM)
The Finance Ministry's Valuation and Property Services Department Property Market Report 2011 released last week showed there were 269,789 residential property transactions worth RM61.83bil transacted last year, the highest recorded in the last five years.

user posted image

MYR..................Transaction..%
<50K ................45,055.......16.7%
50K-100K..........55,307.......20.5%
100K-200K........80,397.......29.8%
200K-500K........67,177.......24.9%
500K-1M...........15,378.......5.7%
>1M..................6,475.........2.4%
TOTAL...............269,789....100.0%

There are lots of rich people in this country.
Why are you guys complaining here?
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91.9% of transactions below 500k.
Only 6,475 purchases of property over 1m.







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