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 Gold investment corner v4, Will gold price achieve USD2000 by 2012?

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cherroy
post Nov 29 2011, 03:19 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 29 2011, 02:56 PM)
Exactly....thats why its a flawed comparison....


Added on November 29, 2011, 3:07 pmIn 2005, a mee soup cost me .00175 oz of gold. Now its .00127 oz of gold.....so value has been preserved between those years
*
Conclusion
Gold is a value preservation is a flawed statement to start with.

Gold is selectively preserve value depended on your entry point.
The timing and level of entry is important to determine whether it can protect your value or not, so it is an investment class asset as same as other investment class/asset/object like property, stock etc.

cherroy
post Nov 29 2011, 03:36 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 29 2011, 03:29 PM)
Yes and No....which you answered in your next breath! 

In your past statement, you mentioned gold has no intrinsic value,no returns?

You are right...an oz of gold will FOREVER be an oz of gold; no more, no less. So essentially, its not an investment.
WHICH brings us back to value preservation........  biggrin.gif

*
Yes, gold is just a shinning yellow metal that is scarce.
It has no fundamental, no valuation point, you cannot value a gold what price should be. It depends on willingness to buy or sell only.

So you own gold because you want to see the shinning yellow reflection of the metal?
Aka you want to own 1kg of gold for the sake want to have 1kg of the yellow metal?
Preserve the 1kg? biggrin.gif

You don't care about gold value?
So why inflation hedge statement, can protect your wealth statement come out?
This is money term already. whistling.gif

cherroy
post Nov 29 2011, 03:38 PM

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QUOTE(quackpack @ Nov 29 2011, 03:24 PM)
I think what cherroy trying to say is, we should feel sad when we see the "return of investment" from gold because of the depreciation of paper money.
*
What I want to highlight is don't be naive to think by investing in gold will preserve your money value or a wealth preserve.
Or don't need to worry about inflation or an inflation hedger.
Yes, it can make even more money for you, just like period from 2004-2011, exceed inflation hedge.
But it can fail you totally in inflation hedge as well.

I had seen many this kind of statement gold protect value, gold is inflation hedge etc.

In reality, it is just another investment class asset, your entry point and exit point is the criteria that dictate whether money is preserved or can hedge the inflation or not.

It can make even more money for you, it can fail to beat inflation.
It never "preserve".
If it really preserve, then 1980-2011 lose of value shouldn't happen at all.
cherroy
post Nov 29 2011, 04:38 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 29 2011, 03:46 PM)
If you say its has no fundamentals, then why call it an investment?
Would you invest in a one oz granite stone?

Did i say i dont care about gold value?
i said an oz is an oz....isnt that 'value'?

Dont understand yer last bit............


Added on November 29, 2011, 3:47 pm
Maybe those are wrong reasons?  smile.gif


Added on November 29, 2011, 3:50 pm

Can you define investment class when you mention "it has NO FUNDAMENTALS"?
Are Tupils "investment class" assets?

Whattabout 1900 to 2011?    biggrin.gif
*
Who said cannot invest into something that has no fundamental? biggrin.gif

Value is money term like USDxxx.xx.
1kg of gold is 1kg, just like 1kg of stone is 1kg. There is no "value" in it. Until we define or someone willing to pay for it in money term.

Undeniable, 99.99% of people own gold because of reason?
Because of money issue circulating us.
We buy gold using money, if said the gold cannot converted to money after you buy with the money, do you willing to buy gold?
If the answer is yes, then I agreed on your statement you are willing to own the gold, and 1oz of gold is value at 1oz, but not RM170. smile.gif

Yes, anything got buyer afterwards, that you can sell at profit, is considered an investment. At least my noob definition. tongue.gif
Investment - something you can make money from it.

Probably the fundamental I can find from gold, is about gold perception by everyone, aka always got people want to buy it.
Fundamental of gold - got people to buy it, just we don't know what price they are willing to pay in the future.


cherroy
post Nov 30 2011, 02:26 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 30 2011, 01:41 PM)
Funny i dont see humans ever using tulips for trading or exchanging that with goods? Do you?   whistling.gif

What you see in trading is fiat gold, not physical gold.
You are right about the mispricing/under pricing.
Is gold REALLY corelated to world stock mkt in the way that you described?
Shorter reaction perhaps due to emotions...but longer term?

i am not here to debate gold vs farmland but that gold is value.
What you are doing is speculating whareas history has shown that gold has been used to purchase farmlands.
This is the real precption that you mentioned- GOLD is MONEY/valuable.

Sounds familair but it is value and has always been even when i started recently in 2002.
As far as gold not giving me constant returns, valued in fiat ringgit, gold has returned me 19% p annum since 2002
when i exchange for ringgit. 24% p.a when i exchange in for fiat uSD...... Sounds unfamiliar......   whistling.gif
An oz of gold is an oz of gold.....
*
I don't see I can buy a bowl of mee with gold, nor I can buy a house with 1kg of gold, or buy a car with 1/2kg of gold. They do not accept it as payment, do they? rolleyes.gif

Correlated or not, I don't know, but I only know stock market beat gold "value", at least from Dow Jones perspective in longer term perspective.
That's why Warren Buffett become the richest man in the world.
If using 2000-2011, surely gold beat stock market, but for the 20 or 25 years period, stock market still beat gold.
Because 1999-2000 we had tech bubble in stock market.

Can we purchase farmland using gold right now?
Do seller accept gold as payment?
I don't know, may be there is, but so far I never see people use gold to pay off car purchase, house purchase or land purchase.
If can without converting to fiat money for valuation, then may be we have a case. biggrin.gif
Like I want to sell a land at 1kg of gold like that, disregard how much the gold price is.

When you use fiat ringgit or USD, then gold is valued at fiat face already, the value is depended on fiat money already.
The gold value is 1oz, and never will give you more than 1oz.
If you use fiat as benchmark for return, then it is investment, and benchmark valuation is fiat money.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Nov 30 2011, 02:29 PM
cherroy
post Nov 30 2011, 11:46 PM

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QUOTE(FrancescoTop8 @ Nov 30 2011, 05:35 PM)
+1.
J.P Morgan also accept physical gold as collateral.
However, J.P Morgan did not accept any paper gold even from it`s own product.   
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405...2457252596.html
*
Collateral is not a payment. whistling.gif
You can use house, land or whatever asset even person (in the form of guarantor biggrin.gif ) as collateral to loan money from banks.
But they are not the payment or settlement instrument like money.


Added on November 30, 2011, 11:48 pm
QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 30 2011, 04:49 PM)
Maybe Warren is not as smart as one thinks?
Maybe he doesnt understand precious metals?

He bought physical silver and was widely specualted that he sold to the SLV startups..

i am not argiung why is he not in silver now. Why did he sell at $7?  
After he sold, went to $12.........must be real smart.

He must be real smart that he cant beat me at investing in the last 10 years.......   whistling.gif
*
Don't forget to donate a little tiny some to lyn, as we have newly born billionaire here. rclxms.gif


Added on November 30, 2011, 11:53 pm
QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 30 2011, 05:52 PM)
selling at the rise of the silver bubble?  What bubble at $7???     biggrin.gif
*
Why into the debate of how $7, $50?
I taught value of 1g of silver forever is 1g.
Why care about price in fiat money?

Only investor of fiat money system care about pricing. Value investor of silver and gold only care about how many oz.

Whenever one start to think about fiat money pricing, it just mean they are valued in fiat money.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Nov 30 2011, 11:54 PM
cherroy
post Dec 11 2011, 05:18 PM

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QUOTE(GoldChan @ Dec 11 2011, 04:01 PM)
not as simple as that, physical gold is still the best.
banker will know how to milk their customer. get physical and stop the milking process.
*
So physical charge spread of RM20-30, is not milking while paper gold charge of Rm2 spread is milking? whistling.gif


Added on December 11, 2011, 5:21 pm
QUOTE(kakiayam @ Dec 11 2011, 05:15 PM)
if paper gold is safe enough, why all the countries keep on buying physical gold and need to find a secure place to store it. They can just buy it through a bank and keep the 'gold saving book' in their drawer
*
LOL, central bank can print money at their wish, they don't need paper stuff lah.
Do you see central bank open account with commercial to place deposit/FD to earn money? :lol

Yes, physical gold is the real game, paper gold is not.

But for small fry like me, it makes no difference, as I am not buying a few Kgs. and the main purpose of having gold (or paper gold) is making money.
For making money purpose, the one that with ease/less hassle and lower spread is preferred. As long as the bank is reputable and relative strong one, not those always have high NPL, or had trouble of liquidity issue etc. it is relative safe, as most gov won't let banks fail, they rather print money to bail out bank instead of letting banks fail, especially commercial banks.

I am not buying gold to look at its shinning yellow light, I am buying gold for the purpose of money.

Also central bank buying money is using foreign currency reserves, where they had no place to keep those.
For eg.
BNM receive USD from the exchange, where they can keep it?
Either use it to buy US treasuries, or keep in the safe deposit vault, or use to buy gold. Other than that, no place to keep. With fear of USD may devalue, buy some gold also a good choice, part of diversification.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Dec 11 2011, 05:35 PM
cherroy
post Dec 11 2011, 05:53 PM

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QUOTE(hit47 @ Dec 11 2011, 05:50 PM)
sometimes we are not sure that banks with gold savings account really have that 'gold' if we ask for it.of course when we ask for it is when we need money derived from benefit of the gold we invested.usually they only put the name on the savings concept and let people assume its a GSC.
*
It is investment basic.

Whether they have that gold or not is not your concern, (bank normally won't stupid left it unhedged totally for GSC, even if they had no gold, they may buy gold derivative in the financial market or whatever investment option)
You concern is bank fulfill the obligation as an account.
Same like your FD, saving in the bank.

If you view the gold account is not safe, then FD/saving account also not safe (for above 250k due to PIDM).

cherroy
post Dec 13 2011, 12:56 PM

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QUOTE(GoldChan @ Dec 12 2011, 10:14 PM)
1. from legal point of view, you need to look at the contract for gold saving a/c. in most if not all occasion, it is unavailable for common people lah.
2. it is clearly stated  in the term and condition  that there may be some losses if U invest in gold.
3. default scenario.

1. U buy for Bank XXX in malaysia.
Bank XXX hedge the paper gold with Trader YYY at COMEX.
Trader YYY at COMEX screw up, cannot deliver the paper gold to Bank XXX.
How does Bank XXX going to pay U? put the blame on Trader YYY.
so nothing to do with Bank XXX reputation etc, it all has to do with the contract signed between Bank XXX and trader YYY.
2. U buy for Bank XXX in malaysia.
Bank XXX hedge the paper gold with BAnk YYY at COMEX.
bank YYY at COMEX screw up, cannot deliver the paper gold to Bank XXX.
Bank YYY will continue to print $$$ to pay Bank XXX lah.

then, U may see this announcement in the future.
a) to prevent manipulation, market loss to exchange etcc... spread of paper has to be higher.
then come a day, due to current scenario, we have to stop trading on Monday. Price is USD3000/oz
settlement price will be based on Monday.
then they will background print more $$$ then pay U USD3000/oz. irregardless on when U redeem it.
then when U get the USD3000. price of physical on Tuesday is USD4000/oz then on Friday it USD6000/oz
but U still have USD3000/- 1/2 of your $ is robbed.

to prevent all this scenario, get the real physical then nobody can steal it from U lah.
*
1) Yes, this can occur, defaulted.
But, this scenario, mostly Bank will suck up the loss incurred. Gold deposit is just small portion of entire bank liabilities.
No bank want to default paper gold obligation that screw up the entire bank trust. Bank can exist and survive based on trust. No trust no bank.
It can cause "bank run".

2) This scenario will not affect the paper gold investor, more money printed, paper gold price shoot up further.
Forget that physical gold price is based on paper gold?
Gold quoted is based on or use gold futures as benchmark.
Physical gold exchange based on how much paper gold is.

Paper gold, yes, it has its risk associated with banks.

Yes, I can understand why some prefer physical,
but physical risk can be greater than paper gold for some or for some scenario/situation (especially in term of theft and fake/purity issue, as not all people know how to verify purity of gold, especially those buy a few ten up to hundred gram one).
Also majority people bought gold to earn money from it, spread can be the key.

Paper gold stop trading due to market loss to exchange, to prevent manipulation? Paper gold has been trading for decades long, want to stop manipulation, just simply increase margin for it, you see gold price plunge straight away, ain't we see last time when COMEX raise margin, straight away plunge a few ten USD.
When COMEX price plunge, so does physical valuation out there. whistling.gif


cherroy
post Dec 13 2011, 02:17 PM

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QUOTE(thumbwrap @ Dec 13 2011, 01:12 PM)
If fiat money is 100% risk while gold has no risk relatively speaking, and this fact is appreciated across the board, then how come investors are dumping gold for fiat money (esp usd) these few weeks? Of late the trust in fiat seem to be bigger than trust in gold and getting stronger, even though people know the usd is just paper. Any guesses why? Can the euro's problems really affect the value of gold? I just don't understand it. (Sorry I'm new to this gold thingy...)
*
Gold price/valuation is based on fiat money system speaks all.

How people determine physical gold price?
All refer to paper gold, gold futures.

When crisis unfold, what kind of "money"/asset people flock into?
Simply look at 2008 when Lehman issue unfolded,
Gold price drop, USD surge.

It is aftermath that massive QE was introduced, gold surge to new high. (which fiat money system turn into stability time but at the expenses of money printing).

I do not dispute there are benefit to own physical gold instead paper gold, just paper gold is not totally useless, it has its own advantage and disadvantage as well.


Added on December 13, 2011, 2:29 pmFundamentally, I do not discourage or encourage people whether go to paper or physical.
Both got their advantage and disadvantage.

What we should do is let people to decide themselves, by presenting both side of perspective, instead saying paper is dangerous or not. smile.gif
Same with physical, we need to highlight the risk associated with it as well, as well as advantage over the paper.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Dec 13 2011, 02:31 PM
cherroy
post Dec 13 2011, 03:04 PM

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QUOTE(GoldChan @ Dec 13 2011, 02:54 PM)
1. I doubt bank will pay. I.e. DBS did not pay those who invested in Lehman brothers.

2. That day will come, U just wait lah.

2.
*
1. Invested in Lehman is you own share or bond of Lehman. Bank is just a middle man or broker service.
Paper gold account, is an account with the bank, not others.

2. The day will arrive?
OK, I wait, what I afraid by that time, I am a dead man... I don't have too much time left, may be the most 30-40 years only. biggrin.gif

Ok lets wait...

This post has been edited by cherroy: Dec 13 2011, 03:07 PM
cherroy
post Dec 14 2011, 03:27 PM

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QUOTE(GoldChan @ Dec 14 2011, 10:59 AM)
1. When default, it is not about reputation anymore. It about legal issue and court order.
Bank are earning few % interest from depositor, thus every single cents count.
I don;t think they will just suck up the losses, they will let the court to decide.
Do U think the press will be on your side?

I seen some many court cases between banks in financial dispute. recently today 14 Dec 2011 the star, bank auction off a house w/o telling the owner.
In property auction, bank r the 1st to wash their hand. So unfair to the buyer.
So, U think bank will keep the reputation or it will end up in court to decide.

I.e. Highland tower tragedy, how long does it takes the bank to waive the payment for the victim in the highland tower.
Does all the bank did the same thing?

can you name me us some cases where the court case is in favours of consumer? Then how much legal $$ is spent to get those verdict.

Get physical then U don;t have to worry about this.

Added on December 14, 2011, 11:04 amas long as it's fiat, it 's still in the banker or Central bank control. You still play by their rules. They can impose lot of things and rules
a) Increase spread.
b) Impose tax on earning.
in the end U get less gold then you started with.

remember 1 oz of gold in 1913 is USD20. It has lost over 95% of its value today due to fiat.
paper Gold is traded 10 - 50x more than physical. All these are known numbers,
yet if someone still 1 2 get into fiat in form or paper gold, be my guest, for me it has been long physical.
*
Bank is not a nice guy, you owe them money, for sure they want their money back.
Who said bank is or must be nice?

But Gold account is account with them, bank owe you, not you owe them.
So this (you owe them money, but house collapse and you want bank to waive the loan) is irrelevant to be used as example to protect their reputation.

Reputation of bank is about they owe you money, they fulfill their obligation to pay back, like your FD account, saving etc.

Increase spread, impose tax etc, are hypothesis, nobody knows it will or will not happen. It is prejudice to accuse somebody impose on it.
Also if you own the paper gold and never sell, aka like holding the physical gold, you still not being taxed until one day you sell it. (even if there is capital gain imposed)

You just hit the nail on its head.
If 1913 there was paper gold account and bank still survive until now, you still earn the same through paper gold as same as gold. Both pricing is the same.
Fiat system exist so long, still not fail... whistling.gif
So the be your guest from 1913 until 2011, still your good guest. rclxms.gif
98 years, certainly I am dead man already.

In between if your safe deposit of gold bar loss, that store in house but collapse like Highland Tower, flood, disaster, gold totally loss...
But paper gold in the bank account still intact, despite flood, house collapse.

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying paper gold is better than physical, it has its drawback, aka trust with bank, but physical has fair amount of risk associated with it as well.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Dec 14 2011, 03:28 PM
cherroy
post Dec 15 2011, 10:32 AM

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QUOTE(GoldChan @ Dec 15 2011, 08:50 AM)
until someone get us the contract how paper gold is operated in local bank, we can;t really argue much about it.
all are just merely assumption.
Even if U put cash in bank PIDM only insure up to 250K per account let alone paper gold.
It 's clearly stated gold investment account can have losses in the pass book.
When that day comes, one can spend all the time arguing with bank, I just don;t have the energy and time 2 do so.

with regards to loss, even if U have a house the house can be flooded, tsunami, burn down riot etc. nothing is save from losses.
For gold currently keeping in safe deposit box facilities is quite safe lah.

when one do physical, one must cater for some losses lah. inventory checking is important,. ask a secuirty consultant lah on how to secure your stuff.
*
Err... not me raise the issue of saying bank can default, COMEX default issue, paper gold is not safe, paper gold is milking money etc.
Not me.. smile.gif
OK, no point talk further... just like previous discussion, let's wait.

If the gold is stored in house, and house destroyed due to flood, tsunami, your physical gold may gone together, this is what I mentioned, but paper gold in bank account, still intact despite house destroy, Tsunami, burn down etc.
I am not talking of house value losses due to disaster. I am talk physical gold loss due to disaster happened.
This is the advantage of paper gold over the physical.

LOL, ask a security constant how to secure my stuff?
I am small fry, I am not storing a few Kgs or ten Kgs or tons, security constantly? laugh.gif
Like movie, open up giant security vault then require finger print with multiple coding? laugh.gif

Security constant care about me?
Ask security constant how to secure a few ten or hundred gram of my physical gold? laugh.gif
I don't want become a joker for them. smile.gif

Bank safe deposit is not 100% safe as well, bank may not pay full compensation of your few kgs stored in bank safe deposit box.
We had case of safe deposit box being stolen as well.

Again, I can understand the reason why one wants physical, but paper gold got its usage/function, especially for small fry like me. smile.gif

This post has been edited by cherroy: Dec 15 2011, 02:22 PM
cherroy
post Dec 16 2011, 12:22 AM

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QUOTE(GoldChan @ Dec 15 2011, 11:05 PM)
up to RM100K insurance per box for some operator of safe deposit.
some are 200K to 400K. pretty much it covers for majority people.

This kind of default, when it come it comes with surprise, immediately come and bang2 sapu everybody one.
people want definite guarantee  insurance that why they buy physical gold.
it's a protection for hyper inflation.
its for long long time maybe 5-10 years horizon.

people who do not believe in definite insurance will treat gold as an investment thus they prefer paper lor.
which indirectly mean they don;t believe in hyperinflation and fiat can solve most of the problem.
*
Forgot that if hyperinflation, paper gold also gain? unless bank defaulted the paper gold, which is another story not related to hyperinflation.
But hyperinflation /= bank must default your paper gold.

I am not paranoid for Rm100k insurance.
If I have a few kgs, RM100k insurance is not enough for me.
If I have below 100k, 100k sum is small only.

5-10 years is long long time horizon? biggrin.gif

Ya, it can, bang defaulted, paper gold gone.
So does, bang, flooding, fire, Tsunami, theft, physical gold gone.

Which has higher chance, theft flooding, fire or bank defaulted? rolleyes.gif
By simply flipping the newspaper everyday to look for those news, bank defaulted depositors money or theft, flood, fire etc?
I don't know the stat... whistling.gif

Fiat has solved the problem for 98 years as you pointed out, so it is enough for me, because I long long a dead man, I cannot live indefinite, so I don't need indefinite insurance. tongue.gif


cherroy
post Dec 16 2011, 11:04 AM

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QUOTE(GoldChan @ Dec 16 2011, 08:35 AM)
paper gold will collapse one day lah.
for something that is virtual traded 50x more than physical. It will be gone soon.

just like you take chances with paper gold some take chances on physical.

bank default is a big event affecting a lot of people. if it comes almost everybddy will kena.
theft, flood, fire is small event affecting few people thus it occur more often.
thus, statistic is not applicable for this scenario.

It 's just like saying/comparing how many people kill by accident vs Tsunami 2004 in Indonesia.

5-10 years is a long 2 time agree. Average insurance policy lasted 20-30 years, some protect up to 70 yrs old
Thus if you compare 5-10 years for insurance + presevation of wealth purchasing power then it's not long. it just short

in any financial planning, you should have some cash + insurance in hand any time. in case anything happen just used your cash.
I believe 20 years ago for average citizen, 1991 one may have 10K cash in hand for emergency, now maybe 20K in hand for emergency and
insurance policy protection up to 100K to 1 million.

the insurance can be in the form of gold, in 1991 you may get at USD400.oz x RM2.5 = RM1000 per oz.
if you keep 10 oz in 1991. then now it is RM50,000.
so it;s a form of insurance base on your saving.

thus, it an saving insurance. when you need $ just sell it.
whether paper gold can achieve that integrity and commitment for the next 10 - 30 years remain a big Question with lot of bank default in USA, europe, etc  in recent years.

Added on December 16, 2011, 8:41 amindeed fiat do solved our problem for 98 years but creating many2 more indirect problems which one wish not to encounter.
such as unaffordable housing in SG, Taiwan, HK and also malaysia.

when USA use gold as currency prior to 1913, there was no inflation for 200 years 1700s - 1913 with some exception during the civil war.

paper money also created War.
with unlimited ability to print $$$, government can go to War , e.g WW2.
the indirect;y steal the saving from public by massive printing press,  to fund their political agenda war, social program U name it.

if all $ is limited by gold, the war will lasted less than 3 month after that no more $ to fund everything else.
WORLd peace.
rclxms.gif
*
Paper gold will collapse one day?
Ok, I wait, but I don't have another 98 years to wait. laugh.gif

Flood, Tsunami, fire, house collapse is small event?
Ya, for macro sense, small, but if your entire saving is in physical gold, and your stored gone due to those "small" event, it is BIG event for you.
But others don't care whether you loss entire saving in those small event.

But if bank default, it affects everyone on the street, everyone, gov, will try to prevent those happen.
Everyone can kena means good thing to have. Everyone will resort whatever measure to stop it happen.
See how 2008 global crisis, everyone try to prevent bank from collapsing, same with current Europe crisis.

So which has higher chance to happen,
disaster or so called small event happen all the time, which can result in loss in entire saving in physical,
or
Bank default? rolleyes.gif

Lot of bank default in USA/Europe?
Who? Where got?
May be except Lehman which is investment bank, not ordinary consumer/retail bank.

Those go under are not defaulting but under receivership or taken over by FDIC, or locally, BNM taking over those financial institution that having problem. It doesn't mean directly bank defaulting and customer saving/account with the bank gone.

No one can deny fiat money has been working for 98 years, or even more.
Value of currency drop?
I am not comparing cash vs gold, I am comparing paper vs physical, if paper gold is not collapse, and bank doesn't default, both are the same aka gain you the same amount of money, forgot physical all the while since gold futures exist, physical gold pricing is following paper gold. Not the other way round.

Don't need keep on stressing how good gold is, I am comparing paper gold vs physical gold, not cash vs gold.

If not because of fiat money, and money is limited by gold, we don't type and discuss gold here already.
Economy is hindered by limited amount of gold.
Ya, world surely more peace, no internet, no economy grow, everyone plant their own rice, better life-style. I also support. rclxms.gif

See the difference of economy grow between 1700-1913 and 1974 to 2011, the chance is enormous due to fiat money system.

OK I wait another 98 years... biggrin.gif


cherroy
post Dec 19 2011, 11:02 AM

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QUOTE(GoldChan @ Dec 19 2011, 05:00 AM)
mfglobal is the recent one.
read the horror story ok.
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/trust...llion-mf-global

trustee seize (curi) all the stored customer gold. What about paper gold?
long time kena curi already lah.
but small fry no need to worry lah. rclxms.gif

in summary,
physical gold lost like died of accident . if you can avoid it, then U won;t die

paper gold lost like dying due to cancer. the doctor will tell U there is hope 4 U lah. your life is not lost etc.. and still charge you medication+consultation fee (storage fee). Guarantee died.
*
I wait this post so long,
aka MFglobal bankruptcy. biggrin.gif

But MFglobal is not a bank.

I never said it won't default, but storing physical is huge risk for me. Theft is more than often nowadays,
My personal view, theft whatever result in loss of physical risk > paper gold default risk.

OK, buy a few Kgs (entire saving), and stored in home. Brilliant idea to counter the fear of fiat money system. rclxm9.gif
cherroy
post Dec 19 2011, 11:51 AM

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QUOTE(ooorait @ Dec 19 2011, 11:50 AM)
will paper gold lost it value?
i want to topup my MGIA, but afraid coz its dropping faster than it recovering..
*
If paper gold lost the value, physical also does.
Physical follow paper gold pricing one.
cherroy
post Dec 19 2011, 02:49 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 19 2011, 01:46 PM)
Theres risk of  THeft in both instances..whther physical or paper as demonstrated by MF global-
you are left with a piece of receipt
*
Wohooo, physical and paper also no different now... whistling.gif

Unless physical stored in house. rclxms.gif


Added on December 19, 2011, 2:50 pm like few KGs in house? brows.gif

This post has been edited by cherroy: Dec 19 2011, 02:50 PM
cherroy
post Dec 20 2011, 10:06 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 20 2011, 08:52 AM)
You dont read too well....

Its with respect to THEFT.........

There will be a difference IF

Paper fails and the TSHTF scenario. This would mean that any PAPER will NOT be trusted.

http://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea...00-to-1-2009-12

So in the meantime, paper gold CAN be sujbected to theft as phsyical as evidenced by MFglobal
*
I knew that paper subjected to default all the while.
Physical also subjected to theft as well if stored in house or even third party.

The link (devaluation of paper currency) is about cash vs gold.
If paper gold is not being defaulted, paper gold also serve as same as physical to hedge against currency devaluation.
Currency devaluation is not a strong point to say physical is preferred over paper.

ok, next time able to buy a few kgs time, store a few kgs in shoe box. rclxms.gif
cherroy
post Dec 20 2011, 02:34 PM

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QUOTE(cruzzie73 @ Dec 20 2011, 02:17 PM)
Let's visualize a scenario when paper gold default is approaching.

Say, inflation starts to pick up pace due to further quantitative easing measures. Then common people start to pick up pace converting their fiat money into precious metals, some goes to paper gold, some goes to physical gold. And that result in gold price being pushed higher. That will encourage more and more people converting fiat into gold. And when inflation "growth" slope becomes steeper, more fearful people will chase gold like crazy and they totally lose confidence in fiat money. 

Then sellers prefer to receive gold rather than fiat (unless they charge a high premium on fiat), the physical people can start buying stuff with their metal. The paper guys can try to convert their paper gold into physical and start buying things. Now, here's when paper problem comes. During this time, can you imagine how immense shortage of gold are we experiencing? Coupled with the huge amount of paper wanting to be converted to physical gold, don't you think a default will be inevitable?
*
Ya, this scenario can happen, but it has been 98 years wait for fiat money system to collapse, I don't have another 98 years to wait. tongue.gif

Paper gold is about money all the while, some paper gold account (some can), stated no conversion of physical allowed, but they will pay you equivalent to gold price in fiat money term.

But if the mentioned situation happen, economy will down to the drain, huge and severe recession, and deflation can occur, so no more inflation threat. Normalising back.

Gold price also plunge in deflation, economy recession.
Gold price surge, because there is too much money chasing too little thing. It is same across asset class, not only gold.
Economy recession, deflation, money shrink.

See how gold price plunge when 2008 global financial crisis on its height time which resulted global economy recession.
It is only aftermath, thing stablise back, + QE then gold price surge again.

Economy just like YingYang one, if you go too far on one side, it becomes bubble and huge correction factor coming.
If everyone rush to convert fiat money resulted in bubble, economy can collapse one, same with inflation, if inflation too severe, it will collapse the economy as well.
By then correction factor coming in, recession, deflation, kill the price back.

Current economy cannot work with gold as medium of exchange.

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