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 Silver as investment V2, Don't cry, buy now.

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taurusbull
post Nov 6 2011, 06:20 PM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Nov 6 2011, 04:54 PM)
i have a friend who is a gold and silver manufacturer in Malaysia. he has several other businesses but he is now going more aggressive in silver manufacturing. i was having a conversation with him this morning and we talked about custom mintage of silver. there are 2 way of working together:
1. we provide silver for him and he will mint it for us according to our design. he will only charge on the workmanship.
2. we buy silver from him (according to floating price) and he mint it for us. which he will charge us both for silver and workmanship.

the cost for him to produce a minting mold is RM1500, therefore he would have to cater the cost into workmanship.

the price is really up for negotiation depending on the design, quantity and size. especially quantity. i roughly asked him how much would it cost for a 1 oz American Silver Eagle like design, he replied the workmanship would probably cost RM7 / coin.

i'm wondering if there is any interest for custom design mintage from us?
please drop me a PM if anyone is keen with the idea of custom mintage, probably we can have some fun ourselves tongue.gif

side note: we also talked about some of the silver sellers buy back policy in the market. although a lot of seller do offer buy back, when it comes to really bringing the silver back to the sellers, the sellers are making a lot of excuses. my friend is working something with a hong kong party for the buy back policy. so if we are getting silver from him, can safely assume that he would honour the policy.
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Consider the following, and imagine the fungability of silver in time of global financial distress
1) Acceptance in Malaysia ----------------->Ringgit Malaysia ---------------> Malaysian Mint silver bullion
2) Acceptance in All Islamic Countries ---> Dirham currency-------------> Dirham silver coin
3) Acceptance Globally --------------------> USD or Swiss Franc -----------> International Mint silver bullion

I will go for No.3 silver, unless No.1 is >15% cheaper. We know as explained earlier that No.2 is the most expensive.

Imagine?
taurusbull
post Nov 7 2011, 08:29 AM

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[quote=bigwolf,Nov 7 2011, 12:23 AM]
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

Sorry chef, gotta disagree a bit with you there. The way I look at it, as there is no control and regulation for silver market in Malaysia, thus anybody can buy and anybody can sell, and therein lies the problem.

What we're seeing here is a free & unrestricted market. Hey, don't get me wrong, I'm all for cooperation. But as the silver market is unrestricted & unregulated, there will always be people wanting a piece of the profit. Unlike, say for example, a furniture shop where you need huge capital outlay (stock, shop, promotion, staff, etc), silver trading can be just as simple as buy 1 silver bar today and sell it the next day for some profit. No overhead costs, no storage costs or any of the fixed costs of running a conventional business.

And I don't its possible to specialize in certain brands either, coz anyone can buy any brands of bars if they want to; unless you are the sole authorized distributor of Sunshine bars and I am the sole authorized distributor of Kitco bars, etc. Even then, can we control who can sell? The buyer who bought 2 bars today can sell the same 2 bars tomorrow if the price is right. As it is now, there are no restrictions on what price can be set or who can sell what silver. Unless it is regulated as such that it is illegal to sell a particular brand of silver if one is not the authorized dealer. But if thats the case, then I believe demand for that brand of silver would die there and then. Why buy something that can't be resold?

Although I do not favour the idea of hogging the whole pie to oneself, it's unavoidable if someone orders a huge stock and dumps it for quick money. I've already noticed there are players in sls who brought in 500 bars and dump at RM119 when 'standard' price there was around RM128 - RM120.

How to control this? Try as I might, I couldn't think its possible coz thing is, silver is silver. Seller A's Sunshine bar is no different than seller B's Sunshine bar. Same for Kitco, or ASE, or Dragons, etc. The person who bought at lower price can always afford to sell at lower price than the guy who bought at higher price and still earn profit.

It is great if we can create awareness and thus, demand (I believe silver awareness in Malaysia is still at the infancy stage. As such, Malaysia is still a vast untapped market) but I wont be surprised if sometime in the very near future, as silver awareness increases and hence bigger demand, there will be big players who are able to bring in thousands of bars and sell at RM1.00 net profit (or dare I say, even lower? shocking.gif )

In conclusion, as the market expands and new buyers/players comes in, the one who can package the best price/promotion will be able to sell better than the other who can't. I don't think this can be avoided even if we want to. Even gold, with its own association of gold dealers cannot control who can buy or sell what gold at what price (Gold Lot Shop anyone?). Then again, I don't think its possible to see a monopoly in the silver market either. If we look at this free & unrestricted market the OTHER way round, someone will always be able to sell at a better price. That guy who bought 1 bar at RM100 last year can sell profitably today at RM110 which is still cheaper than RM119 currently being dumped, no? And I don't think everyone is buying silver looking to sell quickly for a quick buck. I don't think I'm the only one holding silver for mid to long term, no?
Ok, enough of my chatter, don't get me wrong ya, I'm not dissing you or anything ya. I'm just sharing what's been on my mind based on what I've observed so far. Its a discussion and if I'm wrong please feel free to correct me. I never claim I'm an expert, and I'm of the opinion its better to have someone show me my mistake and learn from it than not aware of it, thus keep repeating it and never learn nod.gif
*

[/quote]

Chef, you are right, akin to PC market in 1980s
Big/Silver Wolf, you are right too, akin to PC market in 2000.
All businesses started with high margin, and slowly gravitate towards the single digit market margin, then from high to low single digit margin.
The only variable is the speed of the margin decline, depending on the players' actions of waiting for their golden eggs before finishing off by slitting the golden goose. One of two crazy guys will not generate the trend, so don't have to be a pessimist, wolf! Chef and my idea is to participate in this trading eco-system so that everyone have their pie, allowing a longer period of comfortable margin. This golden period is dependent on market players, and only god knows.

Cheer!
taurusbull
post Nov 7 2011, 10:56 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 7 2011, 09:35 AM)
NO ONE has the tax code for silver bars?
i tried to find it on the Msian customs site but theres no descriptiton for silver BARS......
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It was posted on top of every page by Chun Yen. I had cleared everytime tax free for bars and rounds, and we should stop arguing on this topic. Let it be, allowing people to continue paying tax and help government to fund the deficit when they don't have to for bars and rounds, and let people continue to enjoy freebie from custom by not paying tax for coin when the code clearly indicate 10% sales tax and 5% service tax (total 15.5%).

Chun Yen, it means nobody bother to read what you posted even at the top of every page. You might as well take it down.
taurusbull
post Nov 7 2011, 11:15 AM

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QUOTE(bigwolf @ Nov 7 2011, 09:26 AM)
Would be great if this eco-system can be established. I'd like to have a slice of it, a thin slice oso happy already thumbup.gif

But yeah, it also depends on market players whether everybody is being cooperative or not.

Edit:

1 marked difference between silver & PC market is that in the PC market, you can't hold the stocks as depreciation is a huge factor. The longer you hold, the faster you die. The rig I bought last year for RM2.5k is only worth about RM1k+ today with the same specs. But with silver you can hold and wait (if you have the capital to spare la biggrin.gif ). Heck, with numismatics, the longer you hold, the more valuable it becomes. I'm pretty sure the 1oz perth dragons would be worth much more than RM300 12 years from now  laugh.gif
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Wolf,
What you said on the different between holding PC and silver inventory is true. Meaning dumping PC stock is a necessity for survival and dumping silver stock to depress price and marigin is pure stupidity.

Another school of thought, by holding inventory for price to go up before selling for higher profit, you earn nothing. By increasing the speed from inventory to cash to inventory to cash cycle, meaning increasing the velocity of money, will generate you profit. A small profit, x, multiplying 10 times is much larger than making 5x profit one time in a period of one year.

There is no right and wrong in the above approach, but it will make you richer or not based on your execution.

Important fact as a market player, we need to prolong the period for the goose to lay golden eggs before killing the goose for a one time quick profit

My 2 sen advice from a retired corporate man with 43 years of trading experience.
taurusbull
post Nov 7 2011, 11:35 AM

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People maybe wondering why I am so eager to provide information and advice from the silver knowledge I accumulated and processed in the last 2 months. My premise of life after retirement is to help others to help themselves.

"The most generous thing you can do for someone is not to share your riches, but to guide them towards their own."

So, Low Yat friends, continue to collect your golden eggs while it last in the once in a lifetime silver investment.

Slogan: Long term investment in Low Yat and short term trader in SLS.


Added on November 7, 2011, 11:38 am
QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 7 2011, 11:28 AM)
Ahhhhhhhhhh  thanks mate.

Some are less condescending........afterall the 1st page is like what............60 pages ago...

No wonder he was as such............
rclxms.gif


Added on November 7, 2011, 11:32 amAND how the heck's issit SMUGGLING hwne the goods are declared as silver coins and the customs says : No TAX?    hmm.gif

Do i say: i insist ; TAX ME!!!!!      rolleyes.gif
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*******?

It was on top of every page, if you care to look.

This post has been edited by taurusbull: Nov 7 2011, 11:38 AM
taurusbull
post Nov 7 2011, 11:52 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 7 2011, 11:42 AM)
i just posted chunyens........nothing there cept the OP..............i am a noob
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Go to any page in this thread, try scroll up to the upmost top of page, you will find Chun Yen posting, repeating on every page.
taurusbull
post Nov 7 2011, 12:58 PM

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QUOTE(razman2050 @ Nov 7 2011, 11:59 AM)
Chun Yen's posting is only appear if u put as 'linear outline'. if u r on standard outline than u won't be able to see it. ..
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Thanks for info, as I didn't know there is a linear and standard version. New lah, joined only end of September.
taurusbull
post Nov 7 2011, 04:35 PM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Nov 7 2011, 02:29 PM)
taurusbull, but for a "retired corporate man with 43 years of trading experience", u r using the forum really well biggrin.gif

do u mind PM me your name? i would like to put the tax info you shared into my website, credit to you of course smile.gif
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Credit the info (tax and advantages/disadvantages of physical silver) provided by Taurus Bull to Allied Communities Sdn Bhd. Please add the disadvantages of Numismatic Coin to inculde 10% sales tax and 5% import tax. You are free to use all my postings in Low Yat Forum and LY FB under Taurus Bull. One important information for silver investor is the convertion table to troy ounce retail price guide for silver, as many people may not be aware what actually they are paying in RM/Troy Ounce. Let investor beware!

Yes, taurusbull will be a silver dealer under Allied Communities Sdn Bhd in the coming weeks.
taurusbull
post Nov 9 2011, 12:19 AM

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QUOTE(ycyip @ Nov 8 2011, 09:39 PM)
hi all sifus,

the price of silver as of today stands at USD 34.73 per ounce
is it still a good buy for a 3-5 years investment?
what price do u see silver in 3-5yrs time?  notworthy.gif

newbie investor like me afraid to take the first step
hope experienced and kind sifus out there can advice a bit  unsure.gif
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Only god can gives you a definitive answer. Maybe silver gods like JP Morgan or FED have the answer, but they are not sharing the info. If you care spending 100 hours googling, you will find out oversea experts are predicting USD50 to USD1,000/oz and timeframe is 2013/2015.

Don't waste time as what GoldChan said, buy now and keep for future.

I said we know silver long-term prospect is good due to strong commodity consumption and diminishing inventory. However, with the JP Morgan, silver monster, lurking around manipulating the paper silver price, the short term pricing is very volatile.

If you have 12X extra cash for silver investment, please buy X amount every month. That way you will not be a victim like investors buying on May and November 2011 before the major price corrections. If you had bought once a month from October 2010 to September 2011, your average purchasing price over 12 months would have being around USD34 spot price, about the same price a few days ago.

Analysis Paralysis don't get you anywhere. Rushed out and facing the incoming train is fatal. Somewhere in between will be the answer.

Buy Monthly when you are buying, selling time will be sell 50% of your inventory and then wait and see.

Chef,
One piece of research done to share for everyone.

Good luck in your silver investment.
taurusbull
post Nov 13 2011, 10:32 AM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Nov 13 2011, 09:12 AM)
no problem bro, have added for you, please check out at:
Sell List - Silver in Malaysia

i have removed those outdated listings. at any point of time, the list will only contains 30 listing. if there is a new listing comes in, the oldest listing would be taken out, fair right? tongue.gif

Check out the website:
Silver In Malaysia
icon_idea.gif  icon_idea.gif  icon_idea.gif

btw, i'm trying to learn something about Dirham. is there anyone one here invest in Dirham? what is the main reason people would like to invest in Dirham? what could be the advantages and disadvantages investing in Dirham? Please enlighten me
notworthy.gif
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Property,
I suggest you Google "Dirham" for information. As for local opinion, you ask the Dirham question in SLS, as there are more Muslim investors and Dirham traders there. As for the silver content on Dirham, please refer to the conversion to troy ounce price table I provided earlier.


Added on November 13, 2011, 6:00 pmHappy Reading: old story rewritten with more clarity.

SILVER: THE PEOPLE'S MONEY
By: Jeff Nielsen, November.07. 2011


In my writing a couple of themes occur with regularity: how “fractional-reserve banking” (with purely fiat currencies) is nothing less than serial stealing from the general population; and how gold and silver can protect people from this cycle of theft.

With respect to fractional-reserve banking, the theft is obvious. The bankers print up vast quantities of their paper currencies ‘out of thin air’, at no cost to themselves – but with the full benefit of that money. Thus their own “wealth” increases exponentially, and without the bankers earning a single penny of it. However, by diluting our currencies in this reckless manner they drive down the value of our money – reflected in higher prices (i.e. reduced purchasing power). We get poorer and poorer; they get richer and richer.

Given that we have a corporate propaganda machine which has spent more than forty years trying to disguise this serial stealing, it is no surprise that it often takes a long time for this reality to sink into peoples’ minds. Sadly, even once people understand the stealing which is taking place, they often aren’t able to piece together how precious metals are the “cure” for this chronic condition.

When I speak of precious metals being our salvation from the bankers’ world of debauched paper, for the average person what I mean specifically is that silver is their primary protection from the banksters’ stealing-via-dilution. In referring to silver as “the people’s money” I am not saying anything new here. Rather I am simply reiterating one of the oldest economic truths of our species.

To understand this first requires understanding two more of the most ancient concepts of humanity. To begin with, people must know the answer to the question “what is money?”. Once they have a clear understanding there, it becomes crystal-clear why gold and silver are the best “money” our species has ever known – and the only “good money” in existence today.

Next readers need to understand the historic price ratio between gold and silver, or in other words they need to understand the 5,000 year old price relationship between the Metal of the Sun (gold) and the Metal of the Moon (silver). This historic 15:1 ratio is absolutely reinforced by the fact that this is also the approximate relative proportions of gold and silver in the Earth’s crust. Thus 15:1 is the “natural” price ratio between gold and silver, and over the long term gold and silver prices must revert to that ratio.

Given that 15:1 ratio (and the much greater, current ratio today), this leads to an obvious inference. Gold, by virtue of being less common and thus more valuable is the “money” of the wealthy and governments. Conversely, by virtue of being more plentiful (but still “precious”) silver has always been the Money of the People.

Once these preliminary concepts are understood, readers should be ready to absorb how and why silver can protect the ordinary person from the serial stealing of the bankers. Remembering how the bankers “steal” by diluting the paper (i.e. fiat currencies) we are holding, the obvious solution to that problem is to avoid holding the bankers’ paper.

If we take the fruits of our labours and convert it into silver as quickly as possible, then suddenly the bankers must do most of their stealing from the other paper-holders – not us. And if every ordinary person converted their wealth to silver as quickly as possible, soon the bankers (and the ultra-wealthy for whom the bankers “front”) would have no one to steal from but each other.

People need to divorce their minds from the notion of “buying silver”, and rather simply think of themselves as doing their “saving” with silver rather than with the banksters’ ever more diluted paper. Indeed, the worst thing we can possibly do with our wealth is to deposit it in a bank – since that simply allows the banksters to ratchet-up their “leverage” even further (i.e. steal from us even faster).

Put another way, every dollar which ordinary people convert to silver (or gold) weakens the intensity/effects of this stealing-via-dilution. This also explains the extreme aversion which the bankers have to a “gold standard”, and why they have disseminated millions of pieces of propaganda over recent decades attempting to portray a gold standard as either being archaic or simply “impractical”.

A gold standard is “impractical” indeed if one is a banker because when it comes to the banksters’ efforts to steal-via-dilution, a gold standard functions like an “economic straitjacket”, preventing the banksters from conjuring any “money” out of thin air. With the absolute refusal of our corrupt and servile politicians to “regulate” these financial crime syndicates, a gold standard would impose fiscal/monetary discipline (and sanity) on both bankster and politician alike.

Lacking a gold standard and lacking any financial regulation of these multinational banks, as individuals we have been left with absolutely no recourse but to “insure” our wealth by converting it to silver. Holding silver will not/cannot “fix” our economies by itself. However, with the self-destructive greed of the banksters and the shameless corruption of our political leaders, the destruction of our economies is now inevitable – and we must protect ourselves individually, since we have been abandoned by our own governments.

As it has done for nearly a hundred years, the corporate media defines such behavior as “hoarding”. Strangely, when we (collectively) hold several billion dollars of silver the propaganda machine calls this “hoarding”, yet these same media talking-heads never mention the word “hoarding” when it comes to the $10’s of trillions in paper wealth being hoarded by these ultra-wealthy (ultra-greedy) misers.

As I have demonstrated in numerous previous commentaries, it is the “hollowing out” of our economies through the hoarding of all these $trillions which is one of the primary causes of our imminent economic collapse. In other words, it was bad enough to have the ultra-wealthy steal $trillions of our wealth, but they have compounded that economic harm by refusing to spend their ill-gotten hoards. If the “other 99%” greatly increase their “saving with silver” (or gold), this will also serve to slow down this hollowing-out process, and will at least help to delay our complete economic collapse.

Our economies remain in desperate need of a total overhaul of our entire monetary system, our tax systems, and our labour markets. Given the saturation level of corruption in our governments, it seems likely that most Western nations must also have radical reforms in their political systems as well.

Holding silver solves none of those other problems. At best, it will “buy us the time” to actually fix our broken economies (and broken political systems). At worst, it will make it a little easier to rebuild our societies from the economic “rubble” left behind by the banksters and their political servants.



This post has been edited by taurusbull: Nov 13 2011, 06:00 PM
taurusbull
post Nov 18 2011, 08:20 PM

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QUOTE(taurusbull @ Nov 9 2011, 12:19 AM)
Only god can gives you a definitive answer. Maybe silver gods like JP Morgan or FED have the answer, but they are not sharing the info. If you care spending 100 hours googling, you will find out oversea experts are predicting USD50 to USD1,000/oz and timeframe is 2013/2015.

Don't waste time as what GoldChan said, buy now and keep for future.

I said we know silver long-term prospect is good due to strong commodity consumption and diminishing inventory. However, with the JP Morgan, silver monster, lurking around manipulating the paper silver price, the short term pricing is very volatile.

If you have 12X extra cash for silver investment, please buy X amount every month. That way you will not be a victim like investors buying on May and November 2011 before the major price corrections. If you had bought once a month from October 2010 to September 2011, your average purchasing price over 12 months would have being around USD34 spot price, about the same price a few days ago.

Analysis Paralysis don't get you anywhere. Rushed out and facing the incoming train is fatal. Somewhere in between will be the answer.

Buy Monthly when you are buying, selling time will be sell 50% of your inventory and then wait and see.

Chef,
One piece of research done to share for everyone.

Good luck in your silver investment.
*
Remember Nov.9th I posted this commentary, when spot price closed in London was USD33.7. The last one month I had bought 3 times when spot is 30.8, 34 and 31.5(today). To tame this wild silver price volatility, the solution is cost averaging, meaning buying on regular interval on a consistent basis.

Good luck in your silver investment.


Added on November 18, 2011, 9:15 pm
QUOTE(GoldChan @ Nov 18 2011, 10:12 AM)
real estate. I don;t believe that much. I believe house is meant for comfort and to be stay and rarely for investment.
For years to come, I foresee that at least 65-75% of the property in town becomes useless as it is no longer sustainable. Only a handful strategic located property will be valuable. At that time, no $ can buy such property as people simply don't 1 2 sell.
the rest even if it is freely rented out, people oso dun 1 2 stay.

it depends whether U 1 2 live 20 -50 years, your own life. include your children life or 200-500 yrs, your few generation down the road
If it is your generation, then get a big piece of land, plant food, own water etc,. just like orang asli in forest. live in small community area
like Bario HighLands. e.g.
After all my studies so far, sad to say but this is the only way to go if U still 1 2 live peacefully and reasonably well in the future.


Added on November 18, 2011, 10:15 am
look like a school teacher name tag, teacher teacher got give tuition or not. biggrin.gif
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GoldChan,
Cheer up, the doomsday is not here yet. If it happen, you and Chef are right that a plot of land growing own food is the most useful investment. For those who can't do that, then precious metals are useful for preserving asset and buying power.

During the 60's when Taiwan was poorer than Malaysia, and there are many Malaysian Chinese provided financial support to Kuomintang Government in Taiwan presumably having anti-communism ideology. Chiang Kai Shek, President of China before 1949 and President of Taiwan after that, advised the rich Oversea Chinese saying: "I have nothing to give you in return for your generous contributions, however I will give you an advice. Go back and buy as much land and properties as possible, everything can be produced but human can't produce land, period." That statement is still true till today, and more true for island countries like Taiwan and Singapore, and large cities like Hong Kong, Shanghai and Beijing.

Whatever yardstick you use, given the real estate crash of 2008 and subsequent weak market, the average 15 years (1996-2010) return for all investment, Real-estate still comes up top with 13.05%/year return, follow closely by Precious Metal with 12.83%/year return. Real-estate is top for 1996, 2000, 2001, 2004 and 2006. Precious Metals was top in 2002, 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2010. Property had proven to double every 10 years, for centuries. Yes, this decade potential is Precious Metal without any doubt, but before 2002 Precious Metals give "longkang" return for your investment.

So guys, please give fairer comments on other investments even we are precious metal, particularly silver, supporters. There is always the other side of coin.

Man always have ingenious way to overcome obstacles and that explained why we are the only species on planet that grow from 1 billion to 7 billions within the last 50 years.

Cheer up folks.

This post has been edited by taurusbull: Nov 18 2011, 09:15 PM
taurusbull
post Nov 20 2011, 02:19 AM

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Folks, good reading for a 6% drop in silver.

The SILVER PRICE was taken to the same woodshed as gold. Once it broke 3350c on Thursday, silver never stopped until it hit 3088c. Today it rebounded, but not with anything more than a dead cat bounce to 3250c.

To gainsay this breakdown, silver would have to close above 3250c then rapidly above 3400c.

Down below several landing zones appear possible. 3000c is one, then 2850, and finally 2600c. Lower prices are possible, but not likely.

I expect to see most of the metals' downside in the next two weeks, if not sooner. DON'T MISS THIS: Right now, when every timid heart, including your own, is trembling, audacity and a cool head will pay off. Now is the time to buy, not when all the silly media cheerleaders have discovered a strong upward trend and prices are running away to the upside.

GOLD SILVER RATIO swappers should mark that my commentary yesterday contained an error. I meant to recommend you swap silver for GOLD, not vice versa. Ratio is rising, which means silver is growing cheaper against gold, and we always swap from the dear metal into the cheap. If you swapped silver for gold in the spring at any level lower than 42:1, you can swap gold for silver now and realize gains in silver ounces above 28.5%. Me, I would scoop those ounces off the table and into my lap.

SWAPPERS who swapped higher than 42:1 keep on waiting for a 57.5:1 ratio, which may come soon.

Delude not thyself, neither listen to siren voices blaring that the precious metals bull market has ended. It has not, and will run to yet greater heights in the next 3-10 years.


US DOLLAR INDEX dropped 20.1 basis points today (0.26%) to 78.081, but look, folks, it jumped in one week 117.5 basis points 1.5%. Money fleeing Europe is driving it, and will drive it. It is rallying, and could reach 83.15.

The Japanese Nice Government Men will have to tame the rambunctious yen, and right soon. Without exports, Japan will become an island of unsalable parked cars. They've hit it twice since the earthquake, but every time it comes right back -- lots of scared money out there looking for a refuge. They must hit it again soon. Today at 129.98c/Y100 (Y76.93/$1).

The world is so scared of the Euro that it has gapped down twice in the last two weeks and will continue to fall toward 1.2000. Closed today 1.3515, up 0.39%.

We have a beautiful glowing red-orange fall sunset here this evening, better than fine wine.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com


To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

taurusbull
post Nov 20 2011, 10:55 PM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Nov 20 2011, 06:00 PM)
as a investor / collector, you do not care. whether it is smuggled or not paid tax, it's not a concern. as long as u hold the silver in ur hand, thats the safest thing already.
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Property, your statement is not totally correct. When you buy a smuggled good without paying tax, you are commiting a crime as well. The only safety valve is that when you are caught by the authorities, you can play innocent and claim you are a victim, not knowing that the seller is selling smuggled good. Further you can "bodek" that Malaysian custom is very efficient, therefore not possible for smuggled good into Malaysia. If this good is a smuggled good, then our Malaysian Custom is really below par.

Many reported stories on smuggled cigarettes, liquor and cars. Gold is tax free, silver buy/sell is still low, therefore no stories in the press, doesn't means they don't happen.

Silver coin with legal tender comes with 10% sales tax and 5% import tax. For good indication, any 1 oz silver coin sold below RM135 has to come into Malaysia without paying tax, otherwise the seller is earning nothing or incurring loss. Sometime importer get lucky, and the good just got shipped into Malaysia without Custom imposing tax, and that situation is totally an innocent act on the part of the importer. However custom still have the legal right to impose tax retrospective on all previous goods imported into Malaysia for up to 7 years based on statutory legislation on commercial transactions.
taurusbull
post Nov 20 2011, 11:59 PM

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QUOTE(chef @ Nov 20 2011, 11:21 PM)
I guess property is just putting it in a blunt way, if you buy silver bar from a seller, it will be a hassle and doubting the seller integrity to ask him to proof that his bar has custom duty duly paid.
I wouldn't believe any seller would show you their tax form, but of course they can issue you the invoice.

To be fair, if we follow strictly on rules and law, precious metals are not allowed to be shipped by courier service, then we will have no way to buy or sell PM overseas.

chef

PS I guess this is where business people comes in.  biggrin.gif
*
Chef,
We are in the forum, any positive facts need to be illustrated further, otherwise some readers may follow them as gospel truth to their own detriment. Nobody is absolutely right or wrong, as I already put it clearly before. It is always based on planes of reference.

1) There is a law, you broke it not knowingly, but not caught, you are ok for now, may come back for you to rectify later.
2) There is a law, you broke it purposely, if you caught, you are nailed.
3) Someone broke the law, you support their action, you knowingly broke the law.
4) Someone broke the law, you are ignorant, you are a victim, and law will be lenient to you.

The above is totally different than you knowingly courier your precious metals, as you and the customer are taking a business risk. Someone ask why LGSG only sell silver but not gold. I answered earlier that gold is sold in many brick & mortar goldsmith shops that customer can buy easily and are not willing to take higher risk buying from unknown internet dealer. Of course there is equivalent Gold Lot Shop but their sales vs goldsmiths ratio is minute in comparison. Customer are willing to take higher risk in buying from internet dealer because silver is not easily available in the brick and mortar (goldsmith) shops and the potential investment return are predicted to be higher. High risk high return for silver, Low risk low return for gold. Again it falls back to supply and demand for any commodities.


taurusbull
post Nov 21 2011, 08:50 PM

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For Your Reading Pleasure, cut and paste from SLS.

Jonathan Quek
While most Malaysians are concerned of the American economy, stating that the US Dollar might crash and holding all their wealth in Malaysian Ringgit, they haven’t realise that Malaysia has only 36.4 tonnes of gold. That’s only 1.5% of gold to ringgit reserves ratio comparing to the United States 73.9% of gold to reserves ratio. How will this affect your savings in Malaysia Ringgit?

http://www.jonathan-quek.com/?p=16649
Is Malaysia Ringgit Safe? | Jonathan Quek - Asia's Youngest Wealth Coach
www.jonathan-quek.com
In 'Why Gold? Why Silver? Why Now?', I've stated a few dates in financial history that we must all know and remember. 1913 - The Federal Reserve Bank was..
LikeUnlike · ·Unfollow PostFollow Post · Share · 8 hours ago.5 people like this..


Khairul Amree Hi John. Great to have u here. Totally agreed. Msia will be at the bottom of the pit.4 hours ago via mobile · LikeUnlike.

Khairul Amree And unfortunately we still living on cruthes, instead contributing to GDP4 hours ago via mobile · LikeUnlike.

Ah Chot ler...we have only 1.5% of gold to tinggit? BNM ni tidur ke apa?4 hours ago · LikeUnlike.

Manja Khamis I suspect even that 36.4 tons of Gold stored outside the country probably in the "safe vault" in the US. No chance to repatriate that gold.2 hours ago · LikeUnlike.

Beli Gold Silver Good one John.. I'm sure nobody here wants to buy an apple for RM1 million. =P2 hours ago · LikeUnlike.

Robin Yeen Fatt True but sometimes we have to consider their debt vs GDP ratio also...and US..is very similar to Greece as i can c it..about an hour ago · LikeUnlike.

Taurus Bull: Jonathan, your ratio (gold as % of country foreign reserve) was used out of contact to compare the state of economies between countries. Foreign reserve (Malaysia- USD130.98bil) is used to measure the number of months of sustain import (Malaysia- USD156.6bil/yr), and in Malaysia case we have 10 months import reserve, which is very strong. After the dissolution of Bretton Woods Agreement by Nixon on August.15th, 1971, the greenback is not peck to the fixed ratio with gold in the FED's Fort Knox, allowing US government to print unlimited greenback, unfortunately most global central banks still used them as reserve. What you had quoted the few countries with high gold reserve vs foreign reserve ratio are exceptions than norm for various individual historical reasons. Malaysia is much stronger economically than USA in terms of Balance of Payment (Export > Import + externaal loan servicing), Federal debt to GDP ratio and still a Saving oriented country. Of course USA had the Card Blanc of printing the greenback that the gobal commerce including respective central banks' reserve depending on to trade. I am not defending the government, but BNM is one of the best managed central bank in the world. Our Malaysian economic weakness is the artificial economy created (BN Government) by long-term subsidies that distorted the supply and demand, and saddle the federal budget with ever increasing deficit that is not sustainable, and we are moving towards Greece. It had noting to do with the percent of gold vs country reserve ratio. Yes, you are right to encourage Malaysian to invest in precious metal to preserve their wealth and buying power, but by using the wrong macro-economic example to proof your point is not right. Economically we are better than USA, but we are way worst than Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea and China. The high level of US greenback in all countries' central banks is to facilitate commerce as almost all global trades are in USD. Yes, some countries with the ever growing foreign reserves like China, are moving a portion of greenback to gold, to preserve wealth like us, individual. Most governments are doing it cautiously to prevent the global economy going into a tailspin. about an hour ago · LikeUnlike · 2Loading....

Yip Full Soon ‎Taurus Bull when you want to start giving lecture on the economic? i want to attend leh.. very poor on this since graduated from engineering and hardly touch and read those articles about economic. :Pabout an hour ago · LikeUnlike · 1Loading....

Alwi Adam I wish engineer like me can talk like Taurus Bull. I just know to work hard n buy gold/silver.about an hour ago via mobile · LikeUnlike.
taurusbull
post Nov 22 2011, 11:54 PM

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QUOTE(chef @ Nov 22 2011, 11:39 PM)
oh i have some gold, swapped for silver, now i want to get some back, this is the right time, but i'm so loaded with silver... so want to swap some back.

chef
*
Bro, before you do that, please check the silver/gold ratio.

Ratio >45, silver is cheap relative to gold, swap your gold for silver
Ratio < 45, silver is higher price relative to gold, swap your silver for gold.

45 is arbitrary ratio for now given the current situation, and it may change when there are changes in fundamental for the 2 precious metals.

Now the ratio is >53, meaning silver is cheap relative to gold, you should swap your gold for more silver.

Chef,
Not advisable to execute your thought.


Added on November 22, 2011, 11:56 pm
QUOTE(taurusbull @ Nov 22 2011, 11:54 PM)
Bro, before you do that, please check the silver/gold ratio.

Ratio >45, silver is cheap relative to gold, swap your gold for silver
Ratio < 45, silver is higher price relative to gold, swap your silver for gold.

45 is arbitrary ratio for now given the current situation, and it may change when there are changes in fundamental for the 2 precious metals.

Now the ratio is >53, meaning silver is cheap relative to gold, you should swap your gold for more silver.

Chef,
Not advisable to execute your thought.
*
However, if you keep all your silver, and you have spare cash, then buying gold is no harm, at least the metal is lighter when you are on the run.


Added on November 23, 2011, 9:12 am
QUOTE(taurusbull @ Nov 22 2011, 11:54 PM)
Bro, before you do that, please check the silver/gold ratio.

Ratio >45, silver is cheap relative to gold, swap your gold for silver
Ratio < 45, silver is higher price relative to gold, swap your silver for gold.

45 is arbitrary ratio for now given the current situation, and it may change when there are changes in fundamental for the 2 precious metals.

Now the ratio is >53, meaning silver is cheap relative to gold, you should swap your gold for more silver.

Chef,
Not advisable to execute your thought.


Added on November 22, 2011, 11:56 pm
However, if you keep all your silver, and you have spare cash, then buying gold is no harm, at least the metal is lighter when you are on the run.
*
Gold silver ratio is now 51.7, still high, meaning silver still cheap relative to gold.

This post has been edited by taurusbull: Nov 23 2011, 09:12 AM
taurusbull
post Nov 23 2011, 11:56 AM

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QUOTE(Gold Swiftlet @ Nov 23 2011, 10:26 AM)
@ taurusbull, thanks a lot for the sharing of the gold n silver ratio to determine the worth of buying silver in this current situation. I will getting more silver instead of gold..only the liquidy of silver in the silver shall be kind of issue. May i have ur opinion? thanks..
*
Remember my advice, buy in Low Yat, and sell in SLS. You need to learn to be at least a one time seller in SLS, and get the confident and when the time to let go your silver, you can sell in SLS. If you have patient, sell at market price, and if you want to sell it fast, sell at 5%-10% discount from market price, and I am sure the liquidity is real good when selling in SLS at a discount. Forget about getting the promise of buy back from seller with 15% discount from market price and worry about the seller not honouring their commitment.

Good luck.


Added on November 23, 2011, 12:07 pm
QUOTE(property101 @ Nov 23 2011, 09:49 AM)
hi taurusbull, this is a good method to determine whether silver is overpriced in a quick and simple manner. thanks for sharing!

just wondering whats your benchmark the determine whether the ratio is high or low at particular point of time?
*
Only my intuition and no specific rule to follow. The current plateau of gold silver ratio hovering around 52 +/- 2, but the prevous plateau hovering around 45 +/- 2. Meaning there are changes in the fundamental of supply and demand, mostly paper based between both metals, such as changes in the margin requirements as imposed by the metal exchanges such as Comex and CME. I am using the previous plateau as a guide of relative price between the two metals.

This post has been edited by taurusbull: Nov 23 2011, 12:07 PM
taurusbull
post Nov 23 2011, 01:26 PM

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QUOTE(chef @ Nov 23 2011, 01:17 PM)
Thanks for your advise,

I've thought about it too, but I would like to spread my portfolio instead of having everything in silver. silver gold ration used to be 1 to 12 (years ago), it may go haywire to reach 1 to 100 before leveling back. Like you said, nobody knows, calculated risk is all we can do.

AND the most important thing is, I'm giving such a good offer to lowyat people here, to swap silver for gold, yet no takers. really must find alternative market, ha ha...

Actually the main reason is, from my perspective, I have over invested in silver, so now I'm moving to gold. either using spare cash, or liquidating my silver at this great price and move some funds to gold.

By the way, I've got a tube of ASE 2009 and 2010, any taker? PM me price, thanks.

chef
*
Give me two more weeks, when my cannon is in place, I will buy gold to swap your silver anytime.


Added on November 23, 2011, 3:17 pm
QUOTE(chef @ Nov 23 2011, 01:17 PM)
Thanks for your advise,

I've thought about it too, but I would like to spread my portfolio instead of having everything in silver. silver gold ration used to be 1 to 12 (years ago), it may go haywire to reach 1 to 100 before leveling back. Like you said, nobody knows, calculated risk is all we can do.

AND the most important thing is, I'm giving such a good offer to lowyat people here, to swap silver for gold, yet no takers. really must find alternative market, ha ha...

Actually the main reason is, from my perspective, I have over invested in silver, so now I'm moving to gold. either using spare cash, or liquidating my silver at this great price and move some funds to gold.

By the way, I've got a tube of ASE 2009 and 2010, any taker? PM me price, thanks.

chef
*
Chef,
Just to show that I walk my talk, I am willing to exchange 1 oz gold (ASE, Maple & Phil) with 51 oz silver (ASE, Maple & Phil). I will acquire the gold for this purpose. Now the gold silver ratio is 51.66 (rounding down to your advantage), and we can use this ratio or the ratio on the day of actual exchange.

Now there is someone in LowYat forum willing to exchange gold with your silver. We are not playing mintage year, just pure bullion. Ball on your court now.

This post has been edited by taurusbull: Nov 23 2011, 03:17 PM
taurusbull
post Nov 23 2011, 05:34 PM

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QUOTE(chrischin @ Nov 23 2011, 05:07 PM)
Taurus,

Just for your info, currently 1oz of gold can be bought ~ RM5660. On the other hand, 51oz of ASE will cost ~ RM140 * 51 = RM7,140. The difference is ~ 26%. I would think there will be people interested to exchange their gold for silver in this case.
*
Chris,
That is basically my point. Don't do it.


taurusbull
post Nov 23 2011, 06:02 PM

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QUOTE(basSist @ Nov 23 2011, 05:40 PM)
because of the sales and import tax of coin.. premium is quite high

if want to exchange, 1oz gold coin exchange with 51oz silver bar ~
*
Thanks basSist

I am trying to illustrate what I preached of gold to silver ratio. Beside the tax issue, there is also the supply and demand issue that allow the Mint to charge a higher percentage of mintage for silver than gold coin. There is also the finance interest cost for time lagged, from ordered date to actual delivery date to door step. Higher delivery and insurance charges as percentage cost of metal for silver than gold.

The actual cost of your physical silver in hand is worth the following.

Spot Price of Silver
+ Mintage fee
+ Finance fee
+ Insurance
+ Delivery
+ Physical silver shortage premium (now is low, may jump in 2013/2015)
+ Dealer profit

That explained the physical silver in your hand cost much more than what is quoted in Kitco daily spot price. Unlike in the states, the % premium in Malaysia for silver definitely much higher than for gold.

Another food for thought. For gold (silver as well) investment, try to buy foreign gold coins instead of local mint gold, we may one day (hopefully never) need to carry them as refugee like Vietnamese in the 70s. I am sure 1 oz gold of ASE, Maple and Phil worth more than any minted Malaysian gold, and more readily accepted in foreign countries.

Try investing with your head instead of your heart.

Good luck in your investment, either silver or gold.


Added on November 23, 2011, 6:05 pm
QUOTE(taurusbull @ Nov 23 2011, 06:02 PM)
Thanks basSist

I am trying to illustrate what I preached of gold to silver ratio. Beside the tax issue, there is also the supply and demand issue that allow the Mint to charge a higher percentage of mintage for silver than gold coin. There is also the finance interest cost for time lagged, from ordered date to actual delivery date to door step. Higher delivery and insurance charges as percentage cost of metal for silver than gold.

The actual cost of your physical silver in hand is worth the following.

Spot Price of Silver
+ Mintage fee
+ Finance fee
+ Insurance
+ Delivery
+ Physical silver shortage premium (now is low, may jump in 2013/2015)
+ Dealer profit

That explained the physical silver in your hand cost much more than what is quoted in Kitco daily spot price. Unlike in the states, the % premium in Malaysia for silver definitely much higher than for gold.

Another food for thought. For gold (silver as well) investment, try to buy foreign gold coins instead of local mint gold, we may one day (hopefully never) need to carry them as refugee like Vietnamese in the 70s. I am sure 1 oz gold of ASE, Maple and Phil worth more than any minted Malaysian gold, and more readily accepted in foreign countries.

Try investing with your head instead of your heart.

Good luck in your investment, either silver or gold.
*
Sorry, for silver it should be silver round and bar, as the 15.5% tax paid for silver coin is dead money when comes time to sell pure silver.

This post has been edited by taurusbull: Nov 23 2011, 06:05 PM

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